1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the report provides trend judgments for various futures products including trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, it also gives trend judgments of偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 for different products [4]. - In the macro - financial sector, for stock index futures, it is recommended to consider following the trend; for treasury bond futures, the strategy is to flatten the yield curve [11][12]. - In the black sector, steel products may have a mid - term oscillating trend, and it is suggested to hold short positions in iron ore at high levels or short at highs; for coking coal and coke, the prices may oscillate and rise in the short - term; for ferroalloys, silicon iron may fluctuate after a sharp decline, and manganese silicon is bearish in the medium - term; for soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see, while for glass, it is recommended to hold long positions or partially realize profits at high levels [14][16][17][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, lithium carbonate prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term; industrial silicon is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to consider shorting at highs or selling out - of - the - money call options; for polysilicon, it is necessary to operate cautiously as the downward adjustment of premium may not be over [20][21][22]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton may decline in the short - term; sugar is in a season of both supply and demand, and it is recommended to trade in the low - value range; for eggs, the near - term contracts have limited upside, while the far - term contracts in the second quarter are supported by expectations; apples may be strong on the futures market; corn may oscillate strongly in the short - term; jujubes are expected to oscillate; for live pigs, the spot price may decline in the middle and late January, and it is advisable to be bearish on the futures main contract at high levels [24][26][28][30][32][34]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices may oscillate without new events; fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices; polyolefins are expected to be weak in the supply - demand aspect and should be treated with an oscillating view; rubber may oscillate, and it is advisable to look for short - term long opportunities on pullbacks; methanol's fundamentals are improving in the long - term, and long positions in far - month contracts can be considered gradually; caustic soda futures should be treated with a wide - range oscillating view; asphalt prices may fluctuate more greatly in the short - term, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game; for the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to consider the positive spread between May and September contracts of PX and PTA; for liquefied petroleum gas, there is support but limited upward space; pulp is advisable to wait and see; logs are expected to oscillate; urea futures may oscillate weakly [36][37][38][39][40][41][43][44][45][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Two major energy central enterprises, Sinopec Group and China National Aviation Fuel Group, are officially reorganized, aiming to reduce costs and promote high - quality development of the industrial chain [6]. - Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years, with the value of overseas official gold reserves reaching $3.93 trillion, exceeding that of US Treasury bonds [6]. - US President Trump agrees to promote a bill to strengthen sanctions against Russia. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning states that normal Sino - Russian economic and trade cooperation should not be interfered with [6]. - Guangzhou formulates a plan to build an advanced manufacturing powerhouse, accelerating the cultivation of strategic leading industries and emerging pillar industries [6]. - The market supervision department约谈 the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six polysilicon leading enterprises to prevent monopoly [7]. - Four ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology call for regulating the power and energy storage battery industry to prevent over - capacity [7]. - TSMC raises the price of 3nm chips and suspends new 3nm projects due to full orders [7]. - Trump expects the US to "manage" Venezuela and increase the military budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in fiscal year 2027 [7]. - The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariff policy. If the Trump administration loses, importers may demand a refund of about $150 billion in tariffs [8]. - The US Treasury Secretary hopes to lower interest rates, and a Fed governor expects a 150 - basis - point rate cut in 2026, which may create about one million jobs without causing inflation [8]. - The US Congressional Budget Office predicts that the US GDP growth rate will accelerate to 2.2% in 2026, with a PCE inflation rate of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2028, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2028, and the Fed interest rate will drop to 3.4% in Q4 2026 [8]. - In October 2025, the US trade deficit narrowed by 39% month - on - month to $29.4 billion, with exports increasing by 2.6% and imports decreasing by 3.2% [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than expected, and the number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [9]. - Ukraine and the US are close to finalizing a bilateral security agreement [9]. - Crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela, with the US crude oil main contract rising 4.3% to $58.4 per barrel and Brent crude rising 4.57% to $62.7 per barrel [9]. 3.2 Macro - Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% but still having 15 consecutive positive lines, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.82%. The market turnover was 2.83 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance in the A - share market reached 2604.7 billion yuan, a record high [11]. - The manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs in December were all in the expansion range, indicating an overall improvement in China's economic climate. The stock index continued to rise with increasing volume, but there may be a possibility of rhythm adjustment [11]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The money market tightened, and the bond market rebounded due to the slowdown of the stock index's rise and the sharp correction of commodities. The central bank's policy showed a retreat trend in terms of monetary policy, but the bond market was still optimistic [12]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, there is less interference in the steel industry, and the production - side policy interference is low. In terms of fundamentals, the demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. The supply of steel mills has a low possibility of negative feedback in the short - term, and inventory is accumulating. The valuation of the steel futures is reasonable [14]. - The demand for iron ore has support for winter replenishment, but the supply is high, showing a loose supply - demand situation. Steel products may oscillate in the medium - term, and it is advisable to hold short positions in iron ore at high levels or short at highs [14][15]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short - term, but are restricted by factors such as coal production, safety supervision, and downstream winter storage. In the medium - term, the domestic mine start - up rate has a theoretical upper limit, and there are potential negative feedback risks in the short - term [16]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon fell sharply. Silicon iron may fluctuate after the sharp decline, and manganese silicon is bearish in the medium - term. The decline is due to the increase in hedging by manufacturers and the departure of long - position funds [17]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is relatively weak, and the supply is at a high level. It is advisable to wait and see. Glass is relatively strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions or partially realize profits at high levels. The key is to pay attention to the new production capacity of soda ash and the cold - repair of glass production lines [18]. 3.4 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the price may oscillate strongly. Although the demand in January decreased, the actual demand is still strong, and the inventory is starting to accumulate, but the accumulation range is limited [20]. 3.4.2 Industrial Silicon - It is expected to be weak due to the planned production cuts of downstream polysilicon manufacturers, and it is advisable to consider shorting at highs or selling out - of - the - money call options [21]. 3.4.3 Polysilicon - The downward adjustment of premium may not be over. After the market supervision department's约谈, the market is worried about changes in the industrial pattern. The spot price may still be supported by the production cuts of large manufacturers [22]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - In the short - term, it may decline due to factors such as poor export data, technical pressure, and profit - taking. In the long - term, the supply may decrease, which is beneficial to the price. Currently, the supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday replenishment and the decline of pre - holiday production [24][25]. 3.5.2 Sugar - It is in a season of both supply and demand. Globally, there is an oversupply of sugar, but the domestic market has cost support and pre - holiday demand. It is recommended to trade in the low - value range [26][27]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The spot price is in the pre - holiday seasonal increase stage, driving the near - term futures contracts to be strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the upside is limited. The far - term contracts in the second quarter are supported by expectations [28][29]. 3.5.4 Apples - The futures market may be strong. Currently, the apple market has limited transactions in the production areas and slow sales in the sales areas. The key is to pay attention to the price changes in the sales areas [30]. 3.5.5 Corn - In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly. The key is the farmers' selling sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the probability of a "panic - selling" is low, and the price is likely to oscillate within a range [30][31]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - It is expected to oscillate. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and the key is to pay attention to the sales performance in the peak consumption season [32][33]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The consumption in the first half of January lacks significant improvement, and the spot price may decline in the middle and late January. It is advisable to be bearish on the futures main contract at high levels [34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The market is concerned about the political situation in Iran and Venezuela. Although OPEC has suspended production resumption in the first quarter, the probability of future production increase is high. Without new events, the price may oscillate [36]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors and will follow the trend of crude oil prices. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but there is no strong driving force [37]. 3.6.3 Polyolefins - The supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the upstream production enterprises are suffering losses, which may provide some support, there is no strong driving force for a large increase. It is advisable to treat it with an oscillating view [38]. 3.6.4 Rubber - It may oscillate. The overseas raw material prices are strong, providing cost support. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, and attention should be paid to international situations and domestic policies [39]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, and the inventory may continue to decrease. Although there is a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month, the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions gradually [40]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - It follows the general trend of the commodity futures market, and its own fundamentals are weak. The cost has decreased, and the futures price should be treated with a wide - range oscillating view [41]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - The price may fluctuate more greatly in the short - term due to raw material factors. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The raw material uncertainty has decreased, and the pricing method is worthy of attention [41][42]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - In the short - term, the price follows the cost. It is advisable to consider the positive spread between May and September contracts of PX and PTA. PX has profit support, PTA's supply may increase, and ethylene glycol and short - fiber are under pressure [43]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - There is support from import costs, but the upward space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is relatively tight, but the global supply is abundant. The winter demand is strong, but the chemical industry is under pressure [44]. 3.6.10 Pulp - The spot market trading sentiment is weak, and the futures price faces hedging pressure. The fundamentals are stable, and the price has support from overseas markets. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. 3.6.11 Logs - The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply and demand are expected to be weakly balanced, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [45]. 3.6.12 Urea - The spot market trading is weak, and the futures price may oscillate weakly. The Indian urea tender has not met the procurement expectations [46].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market shows an upward - trending shock, and the stock index futures can consider following the trend. The government bond futures maintain the strategy of flattening the yield curve. [10][11] - The steel market is expected to rebound in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term, while iron ore suggests holding short positions at high levels. The double - coking price may fluctuate and rise in the short - term, and the ferroalloy market is short - term recommended to wait and see. For soda ash, wait and see and try short positions at high levels after the positive feedback subsides; for glass, buy at low levels with caution in chasing high prices. [14][16][17] - For non - ferrous metals, zinc suggests waiting and seeing, and aggressive investors can short at high levels; lead also recommends waiting and seeing; lithium carbonate will fluctuate strongly in the short - term; industrial silicon can focus on selling out - of - the - money call options at high levels, and be cautious in holding positions in polysilicon. [20][22][23] - In the agricultural products market, cotton can reduce long - positions and wait and see; sugar can conduct short - term trading in the low - value range; eggs' short - term contracts have limited upside space, and the far - month contracts have strong support below. The apple market may run strongly; corn will fluctuate strongly in the short - term; jujubes will run in a shock; and live pigs' futures should be short - biased at high levels. [28][30][31] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil will fluctuate without new event fermentation; fuel oil will follow the oil price; plastics should be treated with a shock mindset; rubber will run in a shock; synthetic rubber suggests waiting and seeing; methanol can consider long - biased allocation in the far - month contracts; caustic soda futures should follow the trend; asphalt's price fluctuation may increase; the polyester industry chain can consider PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads; LPG has limited support space; pulp and logs suggest waiting and seeing, and urea will run in a shock. [38][39][43] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China's foreign exchange reserves reach a ten - year high, and gold reserves increase for 14 consecutive months. As of the end of December 2025, foreign exchange reserves are 3.3579 trillion US dollars, and gold reserves are 74.15 million ounces. [5] - Market regulatory authorities jointly issue regulations to address problems in live - streaming e - commerce and online trading platforms. [5] - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issue an implementation opinion on "AI + Manufacturing" aiming to lead the world in AI by 2027. [5] - The central bank conducts a 1.1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation to offset the maturity amount. [5] - Multiple departments hold a battery industry symposium focusing on anti - involution measures. [6] - xAI completes a 20 - billion - dollar E - round financing, with a valuation of 230 billion US dollars. [6] - Ukraine hopes to end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026. [6] - The US "small non - farm" shows a mild recovery in December 2025, and the ISM service PMI rises to the highest level since October 2024. [6][7] - The eurozone's CPI in December 2025 slows down to 2%, and the market expects the European Central Bank to remain inactive. [7] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts trading rules for silver and tin futures. [7] - Key coking enterprises plan to limit production and stabilize prices. [8] 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - A - shares rise in a shock, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 14 consecutive positive days. The strategy is to consider following the trend. [10] 3.2.2 Government Bond Futures - The capital market tightens, and the bond market weakens. The strategy is to maintain a flattening yield curve strategy. [11] 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy interference in the steel industry is low. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. Supply is stable, and inventory is relatively high. Steel is expected to rebound in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term, and iron ore suggests holding short positions at high levels. [13][14] 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The double - coking price may fluctuate and rise in the short - term, affected by policies and winter storage expectations, but the upside space is limited due to the pressure on the steel industry chain. [16] 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The market is influenced by news disturbances. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and investors with small positions can expand the position - adding range. In the long - term, the trend is bearish. [17] 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: Wait and see, and try short positions at high levels after the positive feedback subsides. Glass: Buy at low levels with caution in chasing high prices. [18][19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories increase. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high levels. The supply support weakens, and the demand is expected to weaken. [20][21] 3.4.2 Lead - Lead inventories are expected to rise. It is recommended to wait and see. In the short - term, lead prices may rise due to raw material shortages, but downstream demand may affect the price. [22] 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price will fluctuate strongly, affected by mine disturbances and long - term demand, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. [23] 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options at high levels. Polysilicon: Be cautious in holding positions due to policy changes. [24] 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply is expected to shrink. Cotton prices may fall in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and wait and see. [28][29] 3.5.2 Sugar - The global sugar supply is in surplus, and domestic sugar is in a season of high supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - value range. [30][31] 3.5.3 Eggs - The short - term contracts are driven by the spot market but have limited upside space. The far - month contracts have strong support below. [31][32] 3.5.4 Apples - The market may run strongly. The sales area has a certain digestion pressure, and attention should be paid to price changes in the sales area. [33] 3.5.5 Corn - The short - term price will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling sentiment and policy - related grain auctions after the New Year. [33][34] 3.5.6 Jujubes - The market will run in a shock, and attention should be paid to the sales area's sales rhythm and purchasing mentality. [34] 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The spot price may fall in the middle of January, and the futures should be short - biased at high levels. [34][35] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical trading ends, and the supply is in surplus. The oil price will fluctuate without new events. [38] 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price, affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the supply is loose. [39] 3.6.3 Plastics - The supply pressure is high, and the price may have a small - scale rebound but no strong upward drive. It should be treated with a shock mindset. [39][40] 3.6.4 Rubber - The price will run in a shock, with cost support. Attention should be paid to international situations and downstream procurement. [40] 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Short - term sentiment fluctuates significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see. [41][42] 3.6.6 Methanol - The fundamentals are improving in the long - term. The far - month contracts can consider long - biased allocation, but attention should be paid to inventory changes and price corrections. [43] 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The futures should follow the trend and maintain a short - term long - biased mindset, while the spot market is not optimistic. [44] 3.6.8 Asphalt - The price fluctuation may increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. [44][45] 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term price will follow the cost. Consider PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads. Each product has different supply - demand and cost situations. [46][47] 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - There is support but limited space, affected by supply and demand factors. [48] 3.6.11 Pulp - The spot market trading weakens, and the futures face hedging pressure. It is recommended to wait and see due to the multi - empty game. [49] 3.6.12 Logs - The fundamentals are weak, and the price will run in a shock. The spot market is relatively stable. [50] 3.6.13 Urea - The spot and futures markets will run in a shock, with the spot market trading weakening and the futures being slightly strong. [51]

中国经济网北京1月6日讯 中国证监会网站近日公布深圳证监局关于对中泰期货股份有限公司深圳 分公司采取出具警示函措施的决定、深圳证监局关于对卢宗健采取出具警示函措施的决定。 经查，中泰期货股份有限公司深圳分公司存在个别客户经理指导客户填写风险测评问卷，对客户回 访管理不到位，对互联网营销第三方合作机构尽调不充分等问题，反映出该分公司对交易者适当性管 理、互联网营销业务管理不完善、内部控制存在不足。 以下为原文： 深圳证监局关于对中泰期货股份有限公司深圳分公司采取出具警示函措施的决定 卢宗健作为分公司负责人，对上述违规行为负有管理责任。 上述行为违反了《期货公司监督管理办法》（证监会令第155号，下同）第五十一条、第五十六 条，《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》（证监会令第202号，下同）第二十九条第二款的相关规定。 根据《期货公司监督管理办法》第一百零九条、《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》第三十七条的 规定，深圳证监局决定对中泰期货股份有限公司深圳分公司采取出具警示函的监管措施；对卢宗健采取 出具警示函的监管措施。 中泰证券(600918.SH)年报显示，中泰期货股份有限公司为上市公司持股63.10%的控股子公司 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Overall Economic Situation - China's economic aggregate in 2025 is estimated to reach 140 trillion yuan. The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in December 2025 all rose, indicating an overall recovery of the economic climate [4][5]. - The A - share market in 2025 showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 18% cumulatively, hitting a ten - year high. The Hong Kong stock market had a "good start" on the first trading day of 2026 [8][6]. 2.2 Commodity Market - **Futures Market**: Based on fundamental analysis, some commodities are in a trend - bearish, shock - bearish, or shock - bullish state. Based on quantitative analysis, some commodities are rated as bearish, shock, or bullish [2]. - **Black Commodities**: Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, and iron ore is recommended to be short - sold on rallies. The prices of coking coal and coke may rise in the short - term but are restricted by the profit pressure of the steel industry chain. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are recommended to be short - sold on rallies [11][12][14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: For Shanghai zinc, it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rallies. For Shanghai lead, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices. Lithium carbonate may have a short - term price correction but has long - term demand support. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies, and for polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips [17][18][20]. - **Agricultural Products**: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be shock - bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Zhengzhou sugar is in a state of recovering valuation and is recommended for short - term trading. For eggs, the near - month contracts have limited upside, and the far - month contracts have strong support but high valuations. Apples are expected to be in a shock market. Corn prices are expected to be in a range - bound state in the short term. Jujubes are expected to be in a shock state. For live pigs, the spot price is likely to decline in the first half of January, and the futures main contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [23][25][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to be bearish. Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with oil prices. Polyethylene is expected to be in a shock - bullish state. Rubber is expected to be in a shock market, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Synthetic rubber is expected to be shock - bullish in the short term. Methanol's fundamentals are improving, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after a price correction. Caustic soda's near - month contracts are recommended to be short - sold, and the far - month 05 contracts can hold long positions dynamically. Asphalt price fluctuations are expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The polyester chain is in a short - term adjustment state, and positive spreads between 5 - 9 contracts of PX and PTA can be considered. Liquefied petroleum gas has limited upside space. Pulp is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Logs are expected to be in a shock - bearish state. Urea is expected to be strong in the short term [32][33][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Information - China's economic aggregate in 2025 is estimated to reach 140 trillion yuan. The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in December 2025 rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of the economic climate [4][5]. - The A - share market in 2025 showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% on the last trading day, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell. The Hong Kong stock market had a "good start" on the first trading day of 2026, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.76% [8][6]. - The US government issued a full - year license to TSMC, allowing the export of US chip - manufacturing equipment to its Nanjing factory. The US is likely to announce the next Fed Chairman in January [6]. 3.2 Futures Market 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Trend - bearish commodities: caustic soda, live pigs, pulp, etc. - Shock - bearish commodities: lead, corn, zinc, etc. - Shock commodities: synthetic rubber, urea, rubber, etc. - Shock - bullish commodities: none mentioned. - Trend - bullish commodities: none mentioned [2]. 3.2.2 Quantitative Analysis - Bearish commodities: rapeseed oil, polypropylene, soybeans No. 1, etc. - Shock commodities: corn, coke, Shanghai gold, etc. - Bullish commodities: soybean oil, eggs, plastic, etc. [2]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy: The central economic working conference did not introduce new policies, and the policy interference in the steel production end is low, which is relatively negative for finished products and steel mill profits [11]. - Fundamentals: The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils is good. The supply is relatively stable, and the inventory is still at a high level compared with last year. The iron ore supply is strong, and the demand is stable [11][12]. - Valuation: The futures prices of iron ore and coking coal are oscillating, and the steel price is expected to be between the valley - electricity and flat - electricity costs [12]. - Trend: Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, and iron ore is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [12]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Fluctuation Reason: The "anti - involution" policy led to a rebound in coking coal prices. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the demand for raw materials from steel mills has decreased in the short term [13]. - Future Outlook: The prices of coking coal and coke may rise in the short - term, but the upside space is limited due to the profit pressure of the steel industry chain [13]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Market Outlook: Manganese silicon is recommended to be short - sold on rallies in the medium and long term, and ferrosilicon is also recommended to be short - sold on rallies [14]. - Fluctuation Reason: The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon fluctuated, and the steel mills had signs of stockpiling before the Spring Festival [14]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Fluctuation Reason: The supply of glass decreased, and the sentiment of the soda ash futures market rose. The supply of soda ash is expected to gradually recover [15]. - View: For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see. For glass, it is recommended to try long positions after the market sentiment stabilizes [15]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Shanghai Zinc - Inventory: As of December 31, the inventory of zinc ingots decreased. - Supply and Demand: The supply in December decreased, and it is expected to increase slightly in January. The demand has some resilience but is expected to weaken in January [17]. - Operation: It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rallies [17]. 3.4.2 Shanghai Lead - Inventory: As of December 31, the inventory of lead ingots increased. - Supply and Demand: The production of recycled lead decreased in December, and the spot market was lightly traded. The consumption during the New Year's Day holiday decreased, and the inventory accumulation expectation increased [18][19]. - Operation: It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices [18]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental: The fundamentals are weakening in the short term, and the inventory accumulation expectation in the first quarter is strong. - Outlook: The price may correct in the short term, but the long - term demand is good, and it is recommended to buy on dips [20]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: It has some valuation repair space but is still under pressure. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [21]. - Polysilicon: It is recommended to buy on dips. The price is expected to be supported by the anti - involution policy and the downstream demand [21]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Fluctuation Reason: The price of ICE cotton fell, and the domestic cotton market was affected by supply and demand and policy expectations [24]. - Future Outlook: The global cotton supply and demand are slightly loose, and the domestic cotton supply is temporarily loose. It is expected to be shock - bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [23][24]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Fluctuation Reason: The price of ICE raw sugar fell due to oversupply, and the domestic sugar market was affected by supply and demand and cost [25]. - Future Outlook: The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended for short - term trading [25][26]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Current Situation: The near - month contracts are close to the spot price, and the spot price may rise before the Spring Festival, but the upside is limited. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of inventory "break", but the valuation is high [27][28]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see for the far - month contracts, and the near - month contracts have limited upside [27][28]. 3.5.4 Apples - Fluctuation Reason: The出库 volume decreased, and the sales in the distribution area were slow, leading to a weakening of the futures price [29]. - Future Outlook: The market is expected to be in a shock state, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the distribution area [29]. 3.5.5 Corn - Fluctuation Reason: The domestic corn spot price fluctuated, and the futures price was in a shock state. The selling sentiment of farmers and the policy grain auction are the key factors [29]. - Future Outlook: The price is expected to be in a range - bound state in the short term, and attention should be paid to the selling sentiment in March [29][30]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Fluctuation Reason: The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and the market is in a shock state. - Future Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock state in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sales rhythm in the distribution area [30]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - Fluctuation Reason: The scale enterprises reduced the supply before the New Year's Day, and the social pig supply was tight, leading to a rise in the spot price [31]. - Future Outlook: The spot price is likely to decline in the first half of January, and the futures main contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [31]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical Impact: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on the market, and the long - term impact on oil prices is negative [32]. - Supply and Demand: OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter is difficult to sustain, and the oil price is expected to be bearish [32]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Price Fluctuation: The price fluctuates with the oil price, and the supply is loose, and the demand is weak [33]. - Geopolitical Impact: The geopolitical premium is weakening, and the price is under pressure [33]. 3.6.3 Polyethylene - Supply and Demand: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak, but the upstream losses may provide some support [34]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock - bullish state [34]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Fluctuation Reason: The international macro - environment and trading system may increase the capital participation, but the seasonal factors limit the upside space [35]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock market, and it is recommended to buy on dips [35]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Fluctuation Reason: The cost is supported, and the short - term sentiment fluctuates [36]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see, and it may be shock - bullish in the short term [36]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Supply and Demand: The supply may decrease, and the demand may increase, and the fundamentals are improving [37]. - Outlook: The near - month contracts are in a shock - bullish state, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after a price correction [37][38]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Current Situation: The near - month contracts are weak, and the far - month 05 contracts have macro - positive expectations [39]. - Outlook: The near - month contracts are recommended to be short - sold, and the far - month 05 contracts can hold long positions dynamically [39]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Price Fluctuation: The price fluctuation is expected to increase due to the uncertainty of raw materials [40]. - Outlook: The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [40]. 3.6.9 Polyester Chain - Fluctuation Reason: The market has digested the positive expectations, and the price is in a short - term adjustment state [41]. - Outlook: Positive spreads between 5 - 9 contracts of PX and PTA can be considered [41]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Supply and Demand: The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the domestic demand has pressure, and the upside space is limited [42][43]. - Outlook: It has some support, but the upside space is limited [42][43]. 3.6.11 Pulp - Fluctuation Reason: The spot trading is weak, and the futures price is under pressure from hedging [44]. - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [44]. 3.6.12 Logs - Fundamental: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [45]. - Outlook: It is expected to be in a shock - bearish state [45]. 3.6.13 Urea - Current Situation: The spot trading has improved, and the futures price is expected to be strong [46]. - Outlook: It is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand and Indian procurement [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Fundamental - based Judgments - **Trend空头**: Carbonate lithium, zinc, caustic soda, plastic, ferromanganese - silicon, live pigs, ferrosilicon, SSE 50 stock index futures, five - year treasury bond futures, CSI 300 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, CSI 500 stock index futures, corn, eggs, urea, methanol, pulp, logs, offset printing paper, red dates, coking coal, soda ash, glass, apples, coke [2] - **Oscillating偏空**: Ethylene glycol, crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, industrial silicon, thirty - year treasury bond futures, ten - year treasury bond futures, two - year treasury bond futures, synthetic rubber [2] - **Oscillating**: Lead, zinc, aluminum, tin, copper, palm oil, plastic, rebar, corn, glass, PVC, soybean No.1, asphalt, gold, coking coal, polypropylene, ferromanganese - silicon, silver, Zhengzhou cotton [2][4] - **Oscillating偏多**: Rubber, polysilicon, bottle chips, PTA, staple fiber, p - xylene, fuel oil, cotton, cotton yarn [2] - **Trend多头**: None Quant - based Judgments - **偏空**: Rapeseed meal, sugar, PTA, methanol, lead, rubber, coke [4] - **Oscillating**: Zinc, palm oil, plastic, aluminum, rebar, tin, copper, soybean No.2, glass, PVC, soybean No.1, asphalt, gold, coking coal, polypropylene, ferromanganese - silicon, silver, Zhengzhou cotton [4] - **偏多**: Soybean meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, iron ore, eggs, corn starch, hot - rolled coil [4] 3. Key Points by Directory Macro News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to study and deploy the work on improving Party conduct, building a clean government and combating corruption in 2026, emphasizing anti - corruption and enhancing the comprehensive effectiveness of corruption governance [6] - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" mark, and the on - shore RMB approached "7". The RMB is expected to appreciate in 2026 without a unilateral trend [6] - JD announced its 2025 year - end bonus plan, with 92% of employees getting full or excess bonuses, and the total bonus input increasing by over 70% year - on - year. There are also rumors of salary increases at BYD, ByteDance, and CATL [6] - The Ministry of Commerce opposed the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products, promoted compliant rare - earth magnet exports, and hoped for a balanced solution for TikTok's agreement with investors [7] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange approved the IPO application of Dapu Micro, the first unprofitable company on the Growth Enterprise Market to pass the review [7] - Israeli officials signaled a possible military conflict with Iran over Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [7] - Morgan Stanley strategists pointed out three potential "surprises" in the US stock market in 2026: "job - less productivity improvement", the return of the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds, and a sharp rise in commodity and energy prices [7] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.3%. The market turnover was 1.94 trillion yuan [9] - The central bank's MLF operation had a net injection of 100 billion yuan, and if bond purchases reached 350 billion yuan this month, it would be the largest - scale operation. The urgency for interest - rate cuts is low [9] - Pay attention to the sustainability of liquidity repair and structure. If the conditions are met, the index may strengthen, and focus on IH [9] Treasury Bond Futures - The short - and medium - term bonds may oscillate strongly, but the odds are more important than the direction. The capital is balanced and loose, and the capital interest rates are stable [10] - The central bank's MLF operation had a net injection of 100 billion yuan. Without interest - rate cuts, the market sentiment may decline, and bonds within 10 years will oscillate [10] Black Commodities Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short term. Pay attention to the production at coal mines, safety inspections, downstream raw - material winter storage, and changes in hot - metal production [12] - The production of coal mines has decreased slightly, and the third round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The demand for raw materials from steel mills has declined in the short term [12] - Due to "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, but the potential negative feedback from the steel industry may limit the price increase [12] Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, the end - of - session rally may stimulate hedging, and the sustainability of high prices needs attention. Manganese - silicon is weak, and focus on the new capacity launch before the end of January. In the medium term, both are bearish on rallies [13] - On December 25, the auction price of Hongliulin lump coal increased, with a decrease in the auction volume [13] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [14] - Soda ash supply is at a low level due to some enterprises' maintenance, and cost increases have weakened the upstream's willingness to start production. Glass supply reduction expectations have less impact, and spot sentiment is weak [14] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - As of December 25, the domestic zinc inventory decreased. Tianjin and Guangdong saw inventory declines. After the fading of macro - positive factors, the price is expected to oscillate downward. Hold short positions [16] - In November 2025, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 13.84% and a cumulative increase of 33.74% from January to November [16][17] Lead - As of December 25, the social inventory of lead decreased. The trading activity in the lead spot market declined. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening in the short term, but the long - term demand is positive. Look for buying opportunities after the price correction [20] Industrial Silicon - Environmental disturbances in Xinjiang and strong coking - coal prices have provided some valuation - repair space, but the rebound is under pressure. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies [21] Polysilicon - Exchange risk - control measures have tightened, and the trading volume may cool down. The expected price increase of downstream silicon wafers will support the spot price of polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong [22] Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The pre - festival restocking demand has boosted the cotton price. The US cotton production and inventory have increased, while the global production has slightly decreased [23][24] - The domestic commercial and port inventories are accumulating, but the low industrial inventory of textile enterprises and policy expectations support the price [24] Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of high supply and demand, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are undervalued, with a technical rebound. Wait and see [25] - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025/26, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking will start [26][27] Eggs - The commodity market sentiment is strong, and the pre - January festival stocking demand may increase, leading to short - covering in the near - term contracts and a price rebound. The supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the price increase space is limited before the Spring Festival [28] - The far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible decline in the laying - hen inventory, but this expectation cannot be verified or falsified for now. Wait and see [28][29] Apples - The apple futures price may oscillate. The apple出库 is slightly lower than the same period last year, and the sales in the distribution areas are slow. The good - quality apple price is firm [30][31] - The national cold - storage inventory ratio is 53.31%, and the inventory is 7.021 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Citrus fruits are on the market, affecting apple sales [31] Corn - The corn price may oscillate in the short term. Wait and see and pay attention to farmers' selling sentiment [33] - The domestic corn spot price is mixed. The supply - demand mismatch is easing, but the far - term contracts face pressure from supply [33] Red Dates - The market is in a stage of concentrated new - product arrival, with supply pressure. The price may oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales progress in the distribution areas and downstream purchasing sentiment [34] Live Pigs - The supply - demand pattern is still supply - strong and demand - weak. The expectation of a sharp price increase during the Winter Solstice was false, and the price is expected to oscillate downward. Go short on the near - term contracts on rallies [34][35] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The escalating situation in Venezuela has led to a rapid rebound in oil prices, but the impact is limited. In the medium term, the oil price may decline due to oversupply and the easing of geopolitical tensions [37] - The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose to 444.7 yuan/barrel at night [37] Fuel Oil - Geopolitical and macro - factors dominate the oil price. The supply of fuel oil is loose, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [38] Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak downstream demand, but the upstream losses may provide some support. The price is expected to oscillate [39] Synthetic Rubber - Continue to focus on the strategy of buying RU and selling BR. The butadiene inventory has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but may not maintain high prices [40] Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. Do not be overly bearish in the short term. Consider a slightly long - biased allocation for the far - term contracts after the inventory reduction is smooth [41][42] Caustic Soda - The near - term contracts of caustic soda are close to the real - world situation and are relatively weak, while the far - term contracts have many macro - positive expectations. Keep a bearish view on the main 03 contract [43] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [44] Polyester Industry Chain - The market benefits have been gradually realized, and the downstream negative feedback is increasing. Consider reducing long positions on rallies [44] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG futures price has entered the delivery logic. The supply is abundant globally, and the demand has both supporting and constraining factors. The price is expected to oscillate [47] Pulp - The pulp port inventory has decreased continuously, and the spot price is firm. The market sentiment has improved, but there may be hedging pressure. Wait and see in the short term [48] Logs - The log market fundamentals are oscillating, and the spot price has stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance [49] Urea - The urea market is expected to oscillate. The upstream production reduction is positive for the market. Pay attention to the basis pressure when the futures expectations are too strong [50]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend judgments and investment suggestions for various futures products based on fundamental and quantitative indicators, and summarizes macro - financial news and market conditions of different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and influencing factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies [2][7][9][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental - based Trend Judgment - **Trend空头**: Carbonate lithium [2] - **Oscillating偏空**: Synthetic rubber, lead, etc. [2] - **Oscillating**: Ethylene glycol, zinc, etc. [2] - **Oscillating偏多**: Pulp, short - fiber, etc. [2] 2. Quantitative Indicator - based Trend Judgment - **偏空**: Zhengzhou cotton, PTA, etc. [7] - **Oscillating**: Rebar, plastic, etc. [7] - **偏多**: Rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, etc. [7] 3. Macro - news - **Regulatory actions**: The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have cracked down on false information in the capital market, and punished accounts spreading rumors and illegally recommending stocks [9]. - **Stock market**: Pingtan Development's stock price fluctuated greatly on December 19th [9]. - **International central bank policies**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds reached a 26 - year high [9]. - **Domestic policies**: The State Council Executive Meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions of the Central Economic Work Conference, and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a draft regulation on the asset - liability management of insurance companies [10]. - **Corporate news**: ByteDance is expected to achieve a record profit of $50 billion in 2025, with its annual revenue expected to increase by over 20%. It is also promoting cooperation with hardware manufacturers on AI mobile phones [10]. 4. Macro - finance - **Stock index futures**: Pay attention to the continuity and structure of liquidity repair. If realized, the index may strengthen. A - shares are oscillating higher, and it is necessary to pay attention to the economic data from January to February next year and the rhythm of macro - policy implementation [14]. - **Treasury bond futures**: Short - and medium - term bonds may oscillate strongly, but the odds are more important than the direction. The probability of the central bank cutting interest rates next week is relatively low [15]. 5. Black Industry - **Coking coal and coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short term, but the potential negative feedback risk still restricts the price increase. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the downstream replenishment is slow [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: It is recommended to close out previous long positions and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term. The fundamental logic of manganese silicon remains unchanged [18]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: After the macro - positive factors fade, the price is expected to oscillate lower. It is recommended to hold short positions. The short - term market will focus on overseas macro and domestic supply changes [22]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to continue holding previous short positions. The production of electrolytic lead may decline slightly this week [23]. - **Carbonate lithium**: The short - term demand is weakening, and there may be a short - term correction, but it will rise in the long - term and operate in a wide - range oscillation [24]. - **Industrial silicon and polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may have some valuation repair opportunities, and polysilicon is expected to be strong under the anti - involution policy. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities on dips [25][26]. 7. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. It is recommended to wait and see, and be cautious when short - selling at low prices [30]. - **Eggs**: The spot price may rise before the Spring Festival, but the increase may be limited. The contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory [32]. - **Apples**: The futures price may oscillate. The sales in the production and sales areas are slow, and the price of high - quality goods is firm [34]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price changes in the production area. It is recommended to short - sell the far - month contracts at high prices or look for reverse - spread opportunities [35]. - **Red dates**: Pay close attention to the market performance during the peak consumption season, and currently maintain an oscillating view [36]. - **Pigs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell the near - month contracts at high prices [38]. 8. Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude oil**: The short - term market focuses on geopolitical factors, but the supply surplus is still the main trading line [39]. - **Fuel oil**: The price will follow the oil price, and the short - term focus is on geopolitical impacts [40]. - **Plastic**: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to large supply pressure and weak downstream demand [41]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to stop profiting on the ru - nr spread strategy in the short term and try short - buying on dips [42]. - **Synthetic rubber**: Short - sell at high prices in the short term, and be cautious when chasing short positions on sharp drops [43]. - **Methanol**: The short - term may have some support, and the far - month contracts can be considered for a slightly long - biased allocation after the inventory is smoothly reduced [44]. - **Caustic soda**: Avoid going long on the near - month contracts, and hold long positions on the main contract dynamically [45]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. - **Polyester industry chain**: Consider going long on dips, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunities of PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts [47]. - **Liquefied petroleum gas**: The price may oscillate, with support but limited upward momentum [48]. - **Pulp**: Do not chase long positions in the short term. Consider going long on dips if the spot price is stable [49]. - **Log**: The fundamentals are expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the price may oscillate [49]. - **Urea**: Maintain an oscillating view and wait to observe the start of the spot market after the end of environmental protection restrictions [51].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 - Research Institute: Zhongtai Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Dong Xueshan - Qualification Number: F3075616 - Trading Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018025 [2] 2. Key Data - Weekly Production and Changes Silicon Manganese - National weekly production is 18.82 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1015 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.24% [3] - Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 9.62 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.13% [3] - Ningxia's weekly production is 4.44 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1050 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.19% [3] - Guangxi's weekly production is 0.98 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 525 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.78% [3] - Guizhou's weekly production is 1.24 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 280 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.63% [3] - Yunnan's weekly production is 0.50 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1750 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.84% [3] - Other regions' weekly production is 2.04 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 420 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 24.28% [3] Silicon Iron - National weekly production is 9.98 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6510 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.54% [3] - Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 3.55 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 630 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.70% [3] - Ningxia's weekly production is 2.46 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2590 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.18% [3] - Shaanxi's weekly production is 1.93 million tons, with no week - on - week change and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.23% [3] - Qinghai's weekly production is 1.09 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2030 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14.33% [3] - Gansu's weekly production is 0.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 910 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.51% [3] - Other regions' weekly production is 0.01 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.00% [3] 3. Data Explanation - The update date of Ganglian terminal data is every Thursday, and the data display date is Friday of the current week. The data source is Mysteel and is sorted out by Zhongtai Futures [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors and varieties having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the macro - financial sector, A - shares are in a wide - range shock, and the bond market sentiment is gradually improving; in the black sector, steel and ore prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and coal and coke prices may fluctuate weakly; in the agricultural product sector, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends [11][14][28]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and determines 8 key tasks, including promoting investment to stop falling and stabilizing, and stabilizing the real estate market [6]. - Mexico will impose 5% - 50% tariffs on some products from China and other Asian countries starting next year, and China has launched a trade - investment barrier investigation [6]. - There are rumors about the clearance of quantitative trading equipment in exchanges, but no specific notice has been received [7]. - The storage chip industry is facing a severe supply - demand imbalance, with the shortage of DRAM expected to last until the first quarter of 2027, and the demand for DDR memory growing by 20.7% [7]. - Morgan Chase successfully issued a US commercial paper using blockchain, with payments in USDC [7]. - The key indicator for the "ChatGPT moment" of embodied intelligence is the "double 80%", which may occur in the next one or two years [7]. - OpenAI launches the GPT - 5.2 model, which is expected to bring more economic value. It will be launched in ChatGPT for paid users [8]. - The US trade deficit in September narrowed by nearly 11% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level since June 2020 [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 44,000, and the number of continued jobless claims decreased by the largest amount in four years [8]. - The EU is considering postponing the plan to ban the sale of new fuel - powered cars until 2040 and allowing plug - in hybrid and extended - range electric vehicles to be sold for up to five more years [8]. - Although the yield of Japanese 10 - year government bonds has soared, the Bank of Japan has no intention of intervening for now [9]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to think in terms of wide - range shocks. A - shares are in a downward shock, and the technical weakness of broad - based indexes has been repaired. Attention should be paid to possible adjustments after the realization of positive news [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - If the consensus on the decline of the capital - level center is reached, medium - and short - term bonds may stabilize first and then the rebound may spread to ultra - long - term bonds. The bond market sentiment is gradually improving [13]. Black Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, the 2026 Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are in line with market expectations without new policies. From a fundamental perspective, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils is fair. The supply of steel mills may decline, and the inventory is at a high level. Steel and ore prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to - long - term [14][15]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the demand for raw materials from steel mills is weakening. The potential negative feedback risk still restricts the prices in the short - term [17][18]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to take a long - at - low approach; for manganese silicon, it is recommended to take a short - at - high approach in the medium - term [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory is decreasing. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [22]. Lead - The social inventory of lead is stable. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold short positions [23][24]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with a limited decline space [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may have some valuation repair opportunities, and polysilicon prices are expected to be strong [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The supply of cotton is temporarily loose, but the demand is expected to improve. It is suitable to buy at low prices after adjustment [28]. Sugar - The supply - demand situation of domestic sugar is expected to be bearish. Sugar prices are in a downward shock, and it is advisable to wait and see [30]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, dragging down the near - month contracts. The far - month contracts may be strong due to the expected decline in inventory, but the current valuation is high, so it is advisable to wait and see [32]. Apples - Apple prices are expected to fluctuate [34]. Corn - It is recommended to short the far - month contracts at high prices and pay attention to the changes in the spot price in the production area [35]. Red Dates - It is recommended to buy the far - month contracts at low prices [36]. Live Pigs - The spot market of live pigs shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in the near - month contracts [37]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The rebound of crude oil prices lacks sustainable driving force, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [39]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil prices and is mainly affected by geopolitical and macro - factors [40]. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak demand. It is recommended to think in terms of a weak - shock approach and short after the price rebounds [41]. Rubber - The price of rubber is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see, and one can sell call options at high prices [42]. Methanol - The near - month contracts of methanol are expected to be in a weak - shock state, and the far - month contracts can be considered for a long - position after smooth inventory reduction [43]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is slightly stable. It is recommended to take a short - term shock approach, avoid long positions in the near - month contracts, and wait and see for long positions in the main contracts [45][46]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt is expected to have a larger fluctuation range, and the future focus is on the price bottom after winter storage [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to continue to be under pressure. One can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on TA and short on PF [48]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG is expected to decline, as the downstream chemical industry's operating rate may fall [49]. Pulp - The fundamentals of pulp are improving slightly. It is advisable to wait and see during the day, and one can go long after a callback or sell out - of - the - money call options for hedging [50][51]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly bearish, and the spot price is under pressure. The disk is expected to be under pressure [52]. Urea - The spot market of urea is expected to be stable and weak. It is recommended to take a shock approach [53].

文：中泰期货股份有限公司党委书记、董事长 吕祥友 2025年中央经济工作会议明确"稳中求进、提质增效"工作总基调，围绕内需主导、创新驱动、改革攻 坚、对外开放、协调发展、"双碳"引领、民生为大、守牢底线八大重点任务作出部署，为"十五五"规划 开局定向。作为国有控股期货公司，中泰期货将深刻把握会议确定的工作总基调，立足期货和衍生品专 业优势，将政策导向转化为"服务实体、创新发展、守牢底线"的务实行动，以金融力量助力经济高质量 发展。 践行初心使命，筑牢服务实体"压舱石"。中泰期货将紧扣会议"建设强大国内市场"部署，锚定公司"把 牢一个方向，抓实一个方法"经营发展思路，持续提升服务实体经济能力。聚焦作用发挥，充分发挥期 货市场发现价格、管理风险、配置资源功能，加大产业客户与机构投资者服务开发力度；深化战略协 同，积极融入母公司发展战略，锻造证期协同新优势，在功能性发挥中提升价值创造力；紧跟国家战 略，丰富绿色低碳转型产品和服务供给，持续加大沿黄地区服务力度，深化"保险+期货"模式创新，助 力乡村全面振兴，彰显国有期货公司的责任与担当。 坚持创新发展，激活提质增效"强引擎"。围绕会议"加紧培育壮大新动能"要求，中泰 ...