政策层面，《求是》杂志今年2月初刊文称，要积极推动物价合理回升，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力提升宏观经济治理效能，切实推动物价水平逐 步回升到合理区间。国盛证券认为，化债政策加码下，政府财政压力有望减轻，企业资产负债表也存在修复的空间，市政工程类项目有望加快推进，市政管 网及减隔震实物工作量有望加快落地。关注中国联塑等。 行业层面，地产预期改善叠加上游原材料涨价，中泰证券看好有定价权的企业盈利能力修复，迎来景气度和估值共振向上拐点。该行认为，地产有望企稳回 升带动建材需求回暖；而沥青、聚丙烯、聚乙烯等上游原材料价格持续上涨，驱动建材涨价传导成本压力。看好需求有望率先企稳、集中度高、价格更容易 向下传导的细分行业中的头部企业。建议关注中国联塑等。 公司层面，国金证券认为PVC管道主要用于建筑排水、电线护套等，产品单价低、同质化严重，区别在成本优势。增大生产规模可以实现规模经济、降低原 材料和生产成本，PVC龙头例如中国联塑目前已在全国20个省份及海外国家建立超30个生产基地。此外，塑料管道格局较为分散，各家企业商业模式及产品 亦有区别。截至2024年底，从产量口径看，塑料管CR20约40%，头部企业主要有中 ...

摘要 建筑业新签合同总额去年同比下降 6.6%至 31.5 万亿元，但八大央企市 占率逆势提升约 10 个百分点，达到 51%，上游材料商市占率提升可能 更为显著，行业正经历供给出清和业务重组。 尽管建筑总需求大幅增加难度大，但结构上"两栋"项目比例上升，利 好头部央国企及其合作的头部材料商。今年作为"十五"开局之年，重 大项目资金倾斜，专项债提前下达，施工工作量有望由负转正。 有色金属方面，春节期间海外金属价格普遍上涨，带动国内有色金属股 票走强。尽管美联储鹰派会议纪要压制贵金属价格，但伊朗局势紧张提 供上涨催化，有色板块短期调整后具备基本面支撑，能源金属标的值得 关注。 煤炭行业，印尼减产计划仍在落实，国内春节后淡季可能继续推进减产。 春节前价格倒挂导致海外进口煤减少，国内供应量下降。港口库存低于 去年同期，电厂、钢厂、焦化厂或面临补库行情，看好节后国内煤炭价 格上涨。 春节期间，多地试点国企收购存量商品房用于保障性租赁住房，新房市 场开发商推出优惠活动。重点城市二手房成交稳中有升，但需观察元宵 周期板块节后开工及行情展望 20260223 节后数据。地产板块总体仍需摸底，看好现金流稳健的商管类公司及基 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that in a macro environment characterized by low interest rates and asset scarcity, high dividend strategies have become a "ballast" for institutional fund allocation, with the building materials sector being a stable choice due to its high dividend and safety margin attributes [1] - The building materials sector's high dividend characteristic is not merely a reflection of profit fluctuations but is a result of improved industry competition and cash flow realization, with leading companies in the cement industry maintaining dividend yields between 3.5% and 5.0%, significantly higher than the ten-year government bond yield [2][4] - By 2025, the building materials sector is projected to rank 8th in dividend yield among Shenwan's primary industries, surpassing traditional high-dividend sectors such as utilities and steel, with renovation materials and cement yielding close to 4% [2][3] Group 2 - The building materials sector has undergone three years of deep adjustment, resulting in a "cash cow" characteristic, with capital expenditure peaking and free cash flow becoming abundant, as major cement companies' fixed asset spending is expected to decline by over 40% compared to the 2021 peak [3][4] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to effective production scheduling and capacity replacement mechanisms, which have suppressed vicious price wars, allowing leading companies to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 30% to 50% despite a decline in profit margins [4] - The renovation materials segment also shows high dividend potential, with leading companies like Weixing New Materials and Beixin Building Materials maintaining stable dividend rates above 40%, indicating a positive cycle of profit growth and dividend increases [4] Group 3 - The current valuation of the building materials sector is low, with the CSI All Share Building Materials Index's price-to-book ratio at only 1.15%, indicating that the market has overly reflected pessimistic expectations, with some leading cement companies' price-to-book ratios falling below 0.8 [6] - The current valuation levels are lower than during the financial deleveraging period in 2018 and the real estate crisis in 2022, providing a solid safety margin that can offer considerable capital gains even if profits are under short-term pressure [6] - The building materials ETF (159745) tracks the CSI All Share Building Materials Index, covering leading companies across the entire industry chain, providing an efficient tool for investors to allocate to the building materials sector [6][8] Group 4 - Investors looking to capitalize on the cyclical recovery in the building materials sector can consider the building materials ETF (159745) for both short-term trading and long-term allocation to undervalued, high-dividend sectors, especially in a market environment where funds are shifting towards cyclical stocks [9]

截至2026年2月11日收盘，中证全指建筑材料指数(931009)上涨0.85%，成分股旗滨集团上涨4.03%，伟 星新材上涨3.11%，上峰水泥上涨3.09%，海螺水泥上涨2.46%，北新建材上涨1.91%。建材ETF(159745) 上涨0.54%，最新价报0.74元。拉长时间看，截至2026年2月10日，建材ETF近1周累计上涨2.35%。（以 上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。建材ETF前一交易日融资净买额达117.47万元，最新融资余额达 3739.96万元。（数据来源：Wind） 华福证券研报表示，中央经济工作会议指出，要着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供 给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等；深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。 在反内卷加速供给侧改革预期下，建材产能周期有望迎来拐点。 中国银河在研报中表示，中长期来看，存量房翻新、旧改以及城市更新将成为消费建材需求托底主力。 近年消费建材龙头企业加速调整销售策略，零售业务规模不断扩大，随着城市发展向存量提质增效转 型，龙头企业市占率有望不断提升。 截至2月10日，建材ETF ...

Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a phase of supply improvement starting in the second half of 2024, with profitability gradually recovering by 2026 [1][2] - The average cement price in 2025 is projected to be 372.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.6 yuan/ton year-on-year, with a cumulative production decline of 7.2% [2] - A total of 16 million tons/year of capacity has been removed through capacity replacement, which may lead to asset impairment for several companies [2] Group 2: Glass Industry - The flat glass industry is experiencing a significant decline, with the average price in 2025 expected to be 1323.3 yuan/ton, down 383.4 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] - Daily melting capacity has dropped below 150,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons/day from previous highs, indicating an acceleration in the cold repair cycle [3] - The profitability of photovoltaic glass is under pressure, with a projected average price of 21 yuan/square meter in 2025, down 3 yuan/square meter from 2024 [3] Group 3: Fiberglass and Electronic Fabrics - The average price of fiberglass yarn in 2025 is expected to be 3866 yuan/ton, an increase of 174 yuan/ton year-on-year, indicating stable market conditions [4] - The average price of ordinary electronic fabric is projected to be 9012 yuan/ton in 2025, up 539 yuan/ton year-on-year, reflecting improving market conditions [4] - Demand for special electronic fabrics is accelerating, contributing positively to the performance of companies in this segment [4] Group 4: Consumer Building Materials - Companies like Three Trees and Hanhai Group are maintaining strong revenue and profit performance through effective channel development and brand advantages [5] - Companies in the gypsum board and retail pipeline sectors are expected to maintain strong operational quality, with potential for significant performance improvement in 2026 [5] - Several consumer building material companies are anticipated to release credit risks in 2025, allowing for a more favorable performance outlook in 2026 [5]

截至2026年2月11日 13:55，中证全指建筑材料指数(931009)强势上涨1.23%，成分股旗滨集团上涨 4.17%，上峰水泥上涨3.91%，伟星新材上涨3.20%，海螺水泥，华新建材等个股跟涨。建材 ETF(159745)上涨1.08%，最新价报0.75元。拉长时间看，截至2026年2月10日，建材ETF近1周累计上涨 2.35%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 流动性方面，建材ETF盘中换手4.41%，成交1.00亿元。拉长时间看，截至2月10日，建材ETF近1周日均 成交2.53亿元，排名可比基金第一。 规模方面，建材ETF近1周规模增长2.42亿元，实现显著增长，新增规模位居可比基金1/3。（数据来 源：Wind） 资金流入方面，建材ETF最新资金净流出3968.28万元。拉长时间看，近5个交易日内有4日资金净流 入，合计"吸金"4.74亿元，日均净流入达9473.85万元。（数据来源：Wind） 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。建材ETF前一交易日融资净买额达117.47万元，最新融资余额达 3739.96万元。（数据来源：Wind） 截至2月10日，建材ETF近2年净值上涨2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the expectation of price increases post-Spring Festival and the potential catalyst from the real estate sector. It highlights that the consumption building materials sector may begin to show fundamentals independent of real estate from 2025-2026, with a focus on the resilience of the real estate market after the Spring Festival [2][7] - The report recommends leading companies in the consumption building materials sector that have independent growth logic and sufficient dividend valuation support, particularly in the waterproof materials sub-sector [5][7] Summary by Sections Building Materials Industry Investment Strategy - The consumption building materials sector is anticipated to benefit from potential macroeconomic improvements, with a focus on the resilience of the real estate market post-Spring Festival. The report highlights the importance of observing second-hand housing transactions for signs of market recovery [7] - Recommended companies include Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and others that are expected to perform well due to their growth strategies and market positions [7] Market Review - From February 2 to February 6, 2026, the building materials sector increased by 0.70%, with specific segments like glass manufacturing rising by 5.32% [10] - The report notes significant individual stock movements, with companies like Hanjian Heshan and Jinjing Technology showing notable weekly gains [17] Cement Industry - The national cement market price decreased by 1% week-on-week, with significant price drops in regions like Henan and Hubei. The average shipment rate for cement companies fell by approximately 8 percentage points [24][25] - The report anticipates a stabilization in cement prices as the market enters a holiday period, with a focus on the execution of production restrictions in 2026 [7][24] Glass Industry - The average price of domestic float glass increased to 1154.49 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 9.69 RMB/ton. However, demand is expected to weaken as downstream processing plants shut down for the holiday [42] - The report recommends leading companies in the glass sector, including Fuyao Glass and Xinyi Glass, due to their strong market positions and dividend yields [42][43] Fiberglass Industry - The report indicates that the fiberglass market is experiencing price increases, particularly in the electronic yarn segment, driven by tight supply and steady demand [55] - Recommended companies in this sector include China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology, which are expected to benefit from structural demand upgrades [55]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - The notes primarily focus on the **electronic fabric** industry and **real estate** market, with specific mentions of companies such as **China Jushi**, **Keshun Co., Ltd.**, **Sankeshu**, **Rabbit Baby**, **Hankao Group**, **Beixin Building Materials**, **Weixing New Materials**, **Oriental Yuhong**, **Qingniao Fire Protection**, **Qiba Group**, and **Xinyi Glass**. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Increase in Electronic Fabric** The price of 7628 electronic fabric has increased again, with international composite materials rising by **0.5-0.6 yuan/meter**. The supply-demand dynamics in the industry continue to improve, leading to a tight supply of traditional electronic yarn and fabric, alongside a strong demand for mid-to-high-end products. This trend supports a continued price increase, and the outlook for the fiberglass sector is positive for **2026** [1][1][1]. 2. **Stable Demand in Fiberglass Sector** The demand in sectors such as wind power and thermoplastics remains stable, and the expected impact of new supply in **2026** is limited. The supply-demand balance is anticipated to improve marginally, with a strong recommendation for **China Jushi** and suggestions to pay attention to **International Composite Materials**, **Changhai Co.**, and **China National Materials Technology** [1][1][1]. 3. **Real Estate Market Recovery** In January **2026**, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) has collectively rebounded, with a **16% month-on-month increase** and a **33% year-on-year increase** in transaction area. The growth in first-tier cities exceeds **20%** year-on-year, supported by ongoing real estate policy adjustments that help stabilize the market [2][2][2]. 4. **Price Recovery in Construction Materials** The real estate downturn has accelerated the clearing of supply in the construction materials industry, leading to a rebound in prices for certain products. Several leading companies have begun to report profit recovery after strategic adjustments over the past 2-3 years. Recommended companies for stable growth include **Sankeshu** and **Rabbit Baby**, with additional attention to **Hankao Group**, **Beixin Building Materials**, **Weixing New Materials**, **Oriental Yuhong**, **Keshun Co.**, and **Qingniao Fire Protection** [2][2][2]. 5. **Opportunities in Float Glass Industry** The float glass industry is facing challenges, with two new cold repair lines added this week, reducing production capacity to approximately **14.9 million tons/day**. The industry is currently experiencing losses, and the pressure from inventory accumulation during the traditional Chinese New Year may accelerate the exit of production capacity. The glass sector is expected to stabilize, with recommendations to focus on **Qiba Group** and **Xinyi Glass** [2][2][2]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The overall sentiment in the electronic fabric and construction materials sectors indicates a positive outlook for **2026**, with price increases and demand stability being key themes. - The recovery in the real estate market is seen as a potential catalyst for related industries, suggesting a broader economic recovery may be on the horizon. - The mention of specific companies provides actionable insights for investors looking to capitalize on emerging trends in these sectors [1][2][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puyang Co., San Ke Tree, and Bei Xin Materials [7]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector saw a 4.91% increase from February 2 to February 6, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.10% [12]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at stabilizing prices and boosting macroeconomic governance, which may lead to improved demand in municipal engineering projects [1][12]. - The cement industry is experiencing a demand bottoming out, with a focus on supply-side improvements and regional demand increases driven by large infrastructure projects [1][17]. - The glass fiber market shows structural opportunities, particularly in high-end demand segments, while the overall glass market is under pressure from inventory levels [1][34]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of February 6, 2026, the national cement price index was 340.08 CNY/ton, down 0.83% week-on-week, with a significant drop in cement output and utilization rates [17]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in cement demand leading up to the Lunar New Year, with a strategy of "stabilizing prices and reducing volume" being adopted by many companies [17][30]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of February 5, 2026, was 1154.49 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.85% increase week-on-week, but overall inventory levels remain high [34]. - The report notes that downstream demand is cooling due to the upcoming holiday, although some support from export orders is noted [34]. Glass Fiber Industry Tracking - The report indicates a slight increase in the price of non-alkali glass fiber, driven by rising costs, while high-end electronic yarn prices have seen significant increases [5][34]. - The overall production capacity in the glass fiber sector remains stable, with a slight increase in inventory levels noted [5][34]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment is experiencing a weak recovery, with fluctuations in raw material prices impacting overall demand [6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term market share growth in this segment, particularly in response to policies stimulating consumption [1][6].

重磅研报 持股过节 今日概览 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 02 09 年 月 日 | 【宏观】高频半月观—数据进入"假期模式"——20260208 | | --- | | 【金融工程】持股过节——20260208 | | 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周资金面和宏观基本面弱化—— | | 20260207 | | 【固定收益】持债过节——20260208 | | 【固定收益】资金更为宽松，政府债融资将回落——流动性和机构行为 | | 跟踪——20260207 | | 【建筑材料】竣工端建材将迎来长周期拐点——20260208 | | 【电力设备】钙钛矿：迎来 GW 级量产——20260206 | 【钢铁】方大特钢（600507.SH）-成本优势明显，增长潜力突出—— 20260208 朝闻国盛 研究视点 【煤炭】印度扩产炼钢提振焦煤需求，拟加码美国进口优化供应格局— —20260208 【房地产】C-REITs 周报——双轨并行，商业不动产 REITs 密集上报—— 20260207 【计算机】新国都（300130.SZ）-年报业绩符合预期，软硬出海+港股 上市加速全球化布 ...