证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20260302 3 月度金股：内外博弈与应对 2026 年 03 月 02 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 3 月，市场将围绕内部政策窗口与外部事件冲击的双重变量展开博弈 内部政策方面，今年两会总量政策预期偏平，结构性亮点值得关注。从历 史经验看，两会行情表现取决于政策预期差，大致分为几种情形：一是政 策大年，如 16 年供给侧改革、19 年减税、21 年双碳，会中会后以上涨为 主；二是政策预期落空或意外边际收紧，如 18 年去杠杆、22 年稳增长不 及预期，市场相对承压；三是市场对总量政策预期不高，但出现显著产业 亮点，如 24 年低空经济、25 年深海科技。对于今年，更可能演绎第三种 情形：市场对总量政策的预期相对温和，博弈或有限，因此两会期间大盘 指数层面大概率维持平稳震荡；市场对于产业政策的关注度较高，特别是 "十五五"规划潜在的重点方向，若两会期间出现超预期的表述或催化， 相关主题有望获得积极反馈。 外部因素方面，美伊冲突骤然升级为市场增添新的变数。本次冲突烈度较 高，美军直接参战并部署大规模力量，中东局势进入"白热化"阶段，后 续焦点在 ...

证券代码：002353 证券简称：杰瑞股份 公告编号：2026-010 烟台杰瑞石油服务集团股份有限公司 截至 2026 年 2 月 28 日，公司通过股份回购专用证券账户以集中竞价方式累计回购公司 股份 3,599,000 股，占公司总股本的 0.35%，购买股份的最高成交价为 88.88 元/股，最低 成交价为 33.67 元/股，成交金额 149,695,711.54 元（不含交易费用）。 本次回购股份资金来源为公司自筹资金及股票回购专项贷款，回购股份价格未超过相应 期间的回购股份价格上限，本次回购符合相关法律法规的规定和公司既定的回购股份方案的 要求。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 二、其他说明 重要提示： 公司本次回购股份的时间、回购股份价格及集中竞价交易的委托时段符合《深圳证券交 易所上市公司自律监管指引第 9 号——回购股份》第十七条、第十八条的相关规定。 烟台杰瑞石油服务集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"杰瑞股份"）于 2025 年 4 月 23 日召开第六届董事会第二十三次会议审议通过了《关于 2025 年度回购股份方案 ...

晨会速递 2026 年 3 月 2 日 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】如何看待"HALO 交易"？——《光大投资时钟》第三十篇 近期美股迎来一轮"HALO 交易"，从追逐"成长性"转向拥抱"确定性"和"稀缺 性"。在 AI 技术持续迭代趋势下，真正稀缺的是支撑算力的能源和电力体系以及维 持社会运行的基础设施。而中国拥有全球最完备的供应链体系，在新能源、电力设备、 战略金属、化工材料、造船等行业具备全球领先优势，将成为 AI 时代的硬资产。在 全球供应链重构和法币贬值背景下，其战略价值或迎来系统性重估。 【策略】节后表现值得期待——2026 年 3 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 2026 年 3 月 A 股金股组合：中际旭创、科大讯飞、盛弘股份、杰瑞股份、南京银行、 华菱钢铁、川恒股份、中国巨石、太阳纸业、海尔智家。 2026 年 3 月港股金股组合： 鸿腾精密、汇聚科技、中石化油服。 【债券】中东局势紧张，转债如何应对？——2026 年 3 月 1 日可转债观察 中长期看 A 股市场稳中向好，短期看风险可控，近期中东局势的紧张甚至还会给一些 板块带来投资机会。例如，军工、航运、油汽、煤化工、黄金、战 ...

缺电逻辑下的投资机会梳理 20260227 摘要 AI 应用端定价强化产业趋势预期，尽管定价阶段性可能偏极端，但部分 软件标的回撤加深，反而强化了市场对 AI 产业趋势的预期，并对"缺 电"逻辑形成增量催化。 Token 出海提供了新的外溢路径，通过海外公司对 Token 的调用实现 服务输出，并在广义上体现为"向外输出低价电力的折算价值"，为国 内电力运营商提供潜在的估值与配置逻辑变化。 国内电力股受制于周期与电价预期，整体表现偏弱。配置节奏上，判断 2026 年更接近周期底部，2027—2028 年国内电力运营商优势有望更 清晰；PB 小于 1 或接近 1 的标的具备一定配置价值。 在北美缺电+国内 Token 出海共振下，燃气轮机、燃气发电机组与柴发 等环节的需求有望继续显著提升，国内企业边际产能增量更具弹性，有 望在景气周期中实现份额提升。 杰瑞股份在北美数据中心发电机组领域取得突破，数月内连续签订 4 个 大订单，累计金额接近 5 亿美元，电力板块有望成为第三增长曲线，预 计该业务在 3—5 年内发展至收入约 50 亿元规模。 Q&A 如何理解近期"缺电"主题与以往不同的边际变化，核心驱动因素是什么 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are impacting global markets, especially commodities and inflation risks. [1][2] - **Key Focus**: The shift in US policy towards domestic issues due to midterm election pressures may lead to external conflicts being used to alleviate internal political and economic pressures. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Impact**: Rising oil prices are expected to elevate the Producer Price Index (PPI) and subsequently the Consumer Price Index (CPI), benefiting consumer sectors with pricing power. [1][2] - **Market Transmission Pathway**: The main transmission pathway of the US-Iran conflict is identified as "conflict escalation → oil prices → global inflation → interest rates → stock valuations." The baseline assumption is that while the conflict may persist, oil prices will remain manageable, limiting disturbances to the A-share market. [1][2] - **Military Investment Opportunities**: The military sector is viewed as an "event-driven" investment opportunity, focusing on high-end military trade, particularly in advanced fighter jets and strategic transport aircraft. [1][5][6] Additional Important Insights - **Commodity Rotation**: Historical patterns indicate a rotation from gold to copper and oil, with current trends showing increases in precious metals and industrial metals. If this rotation extends to oil, input inflation risks will rise significantly. [3][4] - **Coal Market Dynamics**: The coal market is entering a phase of value reassessment due to supply disruptions and policy shifts in Indonesia, with potential for improved profitability in coal chemical projects when oil prices exceed $50 per barrel. [2][17][18] - **Geopolitical Conflict and Metal Pricing**: The US-Iran conflict is reinforcing the narrative that geopolitical tensions and de-globalization are fundamentally altering metal pricing dynamics, particularly for precious and strategic metals. [11][12] Sector-Specific Insights - **Oil and Gas Sector**: Short-term beneficiaries include upstream oil and gas assets, with a focus on small to mid-cap exploration companies. The midstream sector is expected to manage cost pressures better than anticipated. [9][10] - **Chemical Industry**: Companies like Wanhua Chemical are positioned to benefit from rising prices in MDI and TDI, with significant production capacities in the Middle East. [16] - **Electric Utilities**: The geopolitical conflict is likely to provide indirect benefits to defensive utility sectors, particularly hydropower, with clear safety margins emerging in certain sub-sectors. [20][21] Investment Recommendations - **Resource and Transportation**: Focus on resource sectors, shipping, and precious metals, particularly gold, as potential beneficiaries of the current geopolitical climate. [4][22] - **Military and Defense**: Emphasize investments in military technology and equipment manufacturers, particularly those involved in high-end military exports. [5][6] - **Coal and Chemical Stocks**: Monitor companies like Yanzhou Coal and China Chemical for potential upside due to supply chain disruptions and rising commodity prices. [19][16] Conclusion The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are expected to have significant implications for various sectors, including oil, coal, chemicals, and military industries. Investors are advised to focus on sectors that can leverage these dynamics for potential growth and profitability.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights investment opportunities in the AIDC and solar power sectors due to electricity shortages in North America, as well as historical opportunities in advanced packaging equipment for semiconductors [1][2][3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: Northern Huachuang, SANY Heavy Industry, Zhongwei Company, Hengli Hydraulic, CIMC, Tuojing Technology, Haitian International, Bichu Electronics, Jingsheng Mechanical, Jereh, Zhejiang Dingli, Hangcha Group, Xianjin Intelligent, Changchuan Technology, Huace Detection, Anhui Helix, Jingce Electronics, Nuwei Co., Chip Source Micro, Green Harmonics, Haitian Precision, Hangke Technology, Yizhiming, New Lai Materials, and High Measurement Shares [1] Gas Turbine Sector - The report notes that President Trump encourages large companies to build their own power sources, which is expected to boost demand for natural gas power generation equipment. The domestic gas turbine industry is highlighted as having significant investment opportunities, particularly for companies like Jereh, Dongfang Electric, and Yingliu [2] Photovoltaic Equipment - The report emphasizes the growing demand for solar power in both terrestrial and space computing applications, with Tesla planning to expand its solar capacity significantly by 2028. Companies recommended in this sector include Maiwei Shares, Jingsheng Mechanical, High Measurement Shares, and Aotwei [3] Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the benefits for domestic equipment manufacturers due to rising tensions between China and Japan, which favor local alternatives. Companies like Changchuan Technology, Chip Source Micro, and Maiwei are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [4] PCB Equipment and Liquid Cooling - NVIDIA's strong performance is noted, with significant revenue growth indicating robust demand for computing power. The report suggests investment opportunities in the PCB and liquid cooling supply chains, recommending companies like Dazhu CNC, Chip Source Micro, and Yinguang Technology [5][6] Robotics Industry - The report indicates a recent pullback in the robotics sector but suggests that upcoming events, such as the release of Tesla's V3 robot, could catalyze growth. Companies like Hengli Hydraulic and Sanhua Intelligent are recommended as key players [10] Oil and Gas Equipment - The report identifies the Middle East as a core market for oil services, with companies like Jereh and Nuwei highlighted for their growth potential in this region [43]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 机械设备行业跟踪周报 看好北美缺电带来的 AIDC 和太空算力光伏 设备机会&关注半导体先进封装设备历史性 机遇 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [1.Table_Summary] 推荐组合：北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、浙江鼎力、杭叉集团、先导智能、长川科技、 华测检测、安徽合力、精测电子、纽威股份、芯源微、绿的谐波、海天精工、杭可科 技、伊之密、新莱应材、高测股份、纽威数控、华中数控。 【燃气轮机】特朗普鼓励大厂自建电源，重申国产燃机产业链投资机会 2026 年 2 月 6 日，CNBC 报道称美国总统特朗普将与亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软等大型科技公司 高管在白宫会面，并计划于 3 月 4 日签署相关协议，要求在保障 AIDC 持续发展的同时由企业自 行解决电力供应问题，利好天然气发电设备需求，加快项目落地速度。严重的供需失衡环节，重 申国产燃机产业链投资机会：1）GEV/西门子/三菱重工上游零部件扩产难度大，到 2030 年板块 合计产能约 90GW，仍小于总需求；2）产能不足限制美国链 ...

Current Strategy Viewpoints - The capital market experienced fluctuations in early February but rebounded later in the month, primarily due to reduced trading activity before the Spring Festival and short-term policy guidance [1] - The market is expected to enter a phase of economic data and policy verification, with a seasonal increase in trading activity post-Spring Festival, laying a foundation for future market performance [1] - Upcoming economic and corporate profit data, along with the National People's Congress in March, will be crucial for setting the annual policy tone and economic targets, which are significant for the capital market [1] Sector Focus - Short-term focus on safe-haven assets and resource products due to tensions in the Middle East, including precious metals and oil sectors [2] - Long-term focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with particular attention to small-cap stocks that typically perform well in spring [2] - Key sectors to watch include humanoid robots, computing, and AI, benefiting from sustained industry enthusiasm and increased risk appetite among investors [2] Macro Overview - The upcoming National People's Congress will set the tone for the annual economy, with GDP growth targets expected to be set between 4.5% and 5% [8] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to include a deficit rate of 4.0% and new special bonds totaling 5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in fiscal deficit compared to last year [8] Financial Engineering - The A-share market has seen a rise in industry crowding, particularly in media and resource sectors, with the media sector showing a crowding degree of 98.25% [12][14] - The resource sector continues to perform well, with price fluctuations leading to a decrease in crowding indicators, suggesting a potential for continued upward movement [13] Electronic Communication Industry - The upcoming GTC conference is expected to showcase new chip developments from NVIDIA, reinforcing AI as a core investment theme [24] - The demand for storage products is projected to rise significantly, driven by strong AI customer needs and price increases in the DRAM market [25] Computer Industry - The rapid iteration of domestic AI large models is expected to drive significant growth in computing power investments, with a focus on world model technology advancements [28] - The demand for AI-driven applications is anticipated to increase, leading to a surge in computing needs and infrastructure investments [29] New Energy Industry - Focus on hydrogen and ammonia projects, with government support for integrated energy bases expected to drive growth in this sector [32] - The electric power equipment sector is poised for growth due to ongoing global energy demands and potential easing of import restrictions in India [32] High-end Manufacturing Industry - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of mass production, with significant advancements showcased during the Spring Festival [35] - The North American AI supply chain remains robust, with ongoing demand for advanced equipment and materials expected to drive growth [36]

风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2026/2/24-2026/2/27）4 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨 4.07%，在申万 31 个一级行业 分类中排名第 12；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.08%。2026 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 14.04%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 9；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.74%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 约翰迪尔 26Q1 财报超预期，看好农机出口和周期反转。全球农机龙头约翰迪尔 2026 年一季报超预期，小型农 业与草皮业务（SA&T）实现收入 21.7 亿美元，同比增长 24%（26 年全年公司指引增长 15%）；生产与精准农业 业务（PP&A）实现收入 31.6 亿美元，同比增长 3%（26 年全年公司指引同比变动-5~-10%）；公司同时上调全年 利润指引，从 40-47.5 亿美元提升到 45-50 亿美元。全球中小型农机市场的复苏态势仍然蓬勃，主因是在全球 大宗商品价格上涨、农产品价格底部企稳的背景下，畜牧业、林果业显著反 ...

01丨 美以联合打击伊朗 28日下午，以色列和伊朗开战。 伊军事对峙持续升级，继昨晚多国启动撤侨行动后，今天美国联合以色列正式对伊朗发动袭击。 中东是全球石油的主产区，霍尔木兹海峡是石油运输的咽喉要道，全球每 10 桶油里，就有 2 桶从这里过。 一旦冲突升级，石油供应 就会断供，油价必然会上涨 ，油价上行直接增厚上游油气开采企业盈利，同时带动油气企业资本开支增加，利好油服设备与油运企 业。 除了石油， 航运也会受影响 ，国际物流的主要路线经过中东，冲突一闹，运费直接翻倍，那些做国际物流的公司，订单都排到明年 了。 还有 军工 ，地缘紧张，各国都会加大军费，军工企业迎来发展机遇 最后是 黄金 ，大炮一响，黄金万两。每次地缘冲突，大家都怕风险，就会把钱换成黄金，黄金价格都大概率迎来上涨。 此外，伊朗是甲醇、乙二醇等化工品的核心出口国，冲突导致出口受限，国内对应化工品供给缺口扩大， 利好国内缺口型化工板块 ； 若冲突导致SWIFT系统受限，伊朗等国可能加速使用人民币结算，将催化跨境支付（CIPS）板块的情绪行情。 通源石油（300164）：北美页岩油技术，海外订单弹性大 中海油服（601808）、杰瑞股份（002 ...