行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 房地产 板块表现： 上海发布楼市新政，需求端政策加码 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/2/21-26/2/27） 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产量价超预期下行、房地产融资资金趋紧、房地产政策不及预期。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 2.0%、深证成指上升 2.8%、创业板指上升 1.0%、沪深 300 上升 1.1%、房地产（申万）上升 0.6%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：*ST 荣 控(+14.4%)、黑牡丹(+12.7%)、京能置业(+11.9%)、万通发展(+9.9%)、西藏城投(+9.8%)， 涨跌幅后五的分别为：三湘印象(-5.7%)、上实发展(-5.3%)、海南机场(-5.1%)、珠免集 团(-4. ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 房地产开发 2026W8：上海进一步放松限购，关注小阳春市场表现 上海发布楼市新政，政策效用或持续数月，全国层面仍待中央政策的落位。 2 月 25 日上海发布楼市新政，政策主要包括限购政策放松、公积金额度 上浮、房产税免征范围扩大。非沪籍居民家庭或成年单身人士，在上海连 续缴纳社保或个税满 1 年及以上的，在外环外购买住房不限套数，在外环 内限购 1 套住房；连续缴纳满 3 年及以上的，在外环内限购 2 套住房；持 居住证满 5 年及以上的，在全市范围内限购 1 套住房。整体来看，政策围 绕新上海人（包括缴纳社保和未缴纳社保的）、公积金额度提升预算展开， 预计对刚需、刚改都有提振作用，进而去试图打开置换的链条。基于上海 当前基本面（有所下降的二手房挂牌、下跌过的房价、高企的新房库存）， 我们预计政策对市场有效烘托时长是 3-4 个月，上海小阳春成交会起量， 价格整体相对平稳，二手房议价空间收窄，进一步消耗二手挂牌和新房存 量，改善供需结构。上海城市维度政策或就此出尽，而且上海城市地位有 一定特殊，上海城市政策对全国作用相对 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][26]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][26]. - The "Shanghai Seven" policy has been introduced to optimize local real estate regulations, which includes reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing housing fund loan limits [2][26]. - The report emphasizes that the supply-side adjustments in the real estate market have significantly improved the industry landscape, making it attractive for investment [2][26]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][6]. - Year-on-year, February saw a 24.5% decline in new home transactions across 34 cities compared to the previous year [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11][12]. - However, February's cumulative transactions showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11][12]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 cities had a total of 120,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 3.1 times [20][21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remains unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [26][27]. - The report notes significant policy changes in Shanghai, including adjustments to purchase eligibility for non-local residents and increased loan limits for first-time homebuyers [26][27]. - Guangzhou plans to invest 220 billion yuan in urban renewal by 2026, indicating a strong commitment to improving housing quality [30][31]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued a $355 million senior unsecured bond with a 3-year term and an interest rate of 11.8% [33][34]. - The report highlights the performance of various real estate stocks, noting that the SW Real Estate Index rose by 0.6%, underperforming compared to the broader market [34][35]. Sector Performance Review - The property management sector saw an average decline of 0.12%, while the SW Real Estate Index outperformed with a 1.08% increase [41][42]. - The report lists the top-performing real estate stocks, with notable gains from companies like *ST Rong Control and Heimu Dan, while others like Shanghai Development and Hainan Airport faced declines [35][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][28]. Core Insights - The report indicates that after a deep adjustment in the real estate sector, the industry fundamentals are approaching a bottom, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][28]. - The report highlights a significant increase in new home transactions, with a week-on-week increase of 334.6% in 34 key cities, indicating a recovery trend [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies and commercial properties, suggesting that they will recover profitability sooner and with more elasticity due to improved industry dynamics [2][28]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][11]. - The transaction volume for first-tier cities was 950,000 square meters, up 315.9% week-on-week, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a staggering increase of 626.2% [3][11]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11]. - However, the cumulative transaction volume for February showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 key cities launched 120,000 square meters of new supply, with total sales of 380,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 3.1 times [21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% week-on-week [21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remained unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [28][29]. - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" policy was introduced to optimize the local real estate market, including reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing the maximum public housing fund loan amount for first-time buyers [28][29]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued $355 million in senior unsecured bonds with a maturity of 3 years and a coupon rate of 11.8% [36]. - The report notes that the real estate sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by only 0.6% compared to a 1.08% increase in the CSI 300 Index [37][38].

数据来源：中指数据CREIS家居版 数据来源：中指数据CREIS家居版 从价格段分布看，5万元以上价格段占比最高，占32.76%；其次是2-3万元和3-4万元，占比分别是21.55%和19.4%；装修标准多为中档装修，占 61%。 智通财经APP获悉，2月27日，中指研究院发布2026年1月地产家居精装市场快报。根据中指数据家居版监测显示，2026年1月，全国重点监测城市 精装修楼盘开盘数量为55个，同比略降5.2%；精装修房源套数为2.66万套，同比下降7.6%。 精装修房源二线城市占比最大，占54.6%；从大区分布看，主要集中在华南和华东区域，占比分别为35.6%和32.3%。 2026年1月，家居七大部品整体配套规模同比下降14.5%。其中配套量最高的是建材部品，配套量达58.6万套，同比下降11.3%；从配套率情况看， 建材部品配套率最高，达到99.4%，其次是卫浴部品，配套率为91.2%；舒适系统和智能家居配套率较低，分别为27.3%和29.5%。 2026年1月，越秀地产、中海地产、大华集团等企业商品住宅房源开盘精装率最高，均达100%；保利发展精装修房源规模量最高，达2544套，其次 是中国金茂 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，今年1月以来，上海、深圳等核心城市二手房成交普遍回 暖，供需关系迎来边际改善。结合全球房地产周期调整经验，该行认为，我国本轮房地产调整在时间与 空间上或已相对充分，在行业基本面经历深度出清、政策托底信号持续强化的背景下，房地产板块的整 体胜率有望逐步抬升。 华源证券主要观点如下： 限购、公积金、房产税三端优化 2月25日，上海发布楼市新政，核心调整如下：1）限购：非沪籍外环内购房社保/个税年限由3年降至1 年，社保/个税满3年在外环内可增购1套；持居住证满5年可在全市范围内限购1套。2）公积金：缴存人 家庭的首套住房公积金贷款最高贷款额度从160万提升至240万，叠加多子女家庭和购买绿色建筑最高贷 款额度上浮政策后可达324万，二套住房的最高贷款额度亦相应提升；公积金贷款认定标准优化（无房 或拥有一套房且结清公积金贷款可再贷）。3）房产税：沪籍居民家庭中的子女成年后，购买住房属于 成年子女家庭唯一住房的，暂免征收个人住房房产税。 稳定市场意图明确 2026年初官媒密集释放积极信号，开年首期《求是》杂志发文提及"房地产带有显著的金融资产属 性"、"政策要一次性给足"等突破 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略月报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业 26 年 1 月市场总结 市场信心逐步回升，主流标的表现优异 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-02-26 [相对市场表现 Table_PicQuote] [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 SFC CE No. BNN906 021-38003639 guoz@gf.com.cn 分析师： 邢莘 SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 021-38003638 xingshen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 谢淼 SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 SFC CE No. BVB342 021-38003637 xiemiao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李怡慧 SAC 执证号：S0260524040001 SFC CE No. BVI219 021-38003636 liyihui@gf.com.cn 分析师： 辛恬 SAC 执证号：S026052 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [3] Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, with significant year-on-year increases in transaction volumes in major cities [10][11] - Policy measures are being implemented to support the market, including tax reductions and adjustments to purchase restrictions, which are expected to stabilize market expectations and improve transaction volumes [17][27] - The new housing market is lagging behind the second-hand market, with a notable decline in new housing supply in key cities [11][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In January, major cities saw a year-on-year increase of over 20% in second-hand housing transactions, contrasting with a decline in new housing supply, which dropped by over 40% in key cities [5][11] - The transaction window for the real estate market has extended due to the timing of the Spring Festival, leading to improved sales figures [10] Policy Environment - Recent policy changes include a reduction in the value-added tax on homes sold within two years from 5% to 3%, and the continuation of tax refunds for home exchanges, aimed at lowering transaction costs [17] - On February 25, 2026, Shanghai adjusted its purchase restrictions, allowing non-resident families and single adults to buy homes with a reduced social security requirement, and increased the maximum housing fund loan limit from 1.6 million to 2.4 million [17] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that 2026 will continue to focus on "city-specific policies to control growth, reduce inventory, and optimize supply," with ongoing pressure on new construction and investment chains [27] - The report highlights the potential for a gradual stabilization of housing prices, driven by increased transaction volumes in the second-hand market and supportive policy measures [17][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with sufficient core area inventory and new value, such as Jianfa International Group, Greentown China, and China Resources Land [27] - It also notes opportunities in intermediary agencies as the proportion of second-hand transactions increases, highlighting companies like Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia [27]

摘要 2025年，中央提出"推动房地产高质量发展"，并将构建房地产发展新模式纳入"十五五"规划重点任务。围绕"推动市场止跌回稳、加快构建房地产发展新 模式"这一核心目标，政策层面形成三大重点发力方向：一是加快库存去化与供给结构优化，推动市场供需平衡；二是强化保交楼融资支持落地，筑牢市 场风险防控底线；三是持续推进需求端政策宽松，释放刚性和改善性住房需求。 图表1 2025年房地产行业相关政策 | 数据来源：公开资料，东方金诚整理 | | --- | 2025年房地产市场回顾：2025年房地产市场延续调整，下半年市场加速下滑。12月70城二手房和新房价格同比分别下跌6.1%和3.1%，全年商品房销售面 积同比下降8.7%，投资端收缩态势更为严峻，全年开发投资完成额同比下降17.2%。在市场持续调整背景下，2025年房企融资环境无实质性改善，年末万 科展期事件推升行业风险溢价，但年内房企债务重组工作取得较大进展，对相关企业资产负债表修复具有积极意义。 2026年房地产市场展望：2026年房地产政策将延续边际宽松基调。其中，需求端政策核心在于引导实际房贷利率下行，供给端则通过控增量、去存量，共 同推动供需结构优化。 ...

证券研究报告 政策：政策工具利率下调助力收储，降准降息仍有空间 关注节后楼市走向，优质房企具备配置价值 月酝知风之地产行业 地产行业月报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 杨 侃 投资咨询资格编号：S1060514080002 王懂扬 投资咨询资格编号：S1060522070003 2026年2月26日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 本月观点：春节假期新房成交相对平稳，2.15-2.22可比12城新房日均成交套数较上年春节下降9.1%；核心城市二手房增幅明显，2.15-2.22北上 深二手房合计成交套数较上年春节增长39.1%。春节期间（2.15-2.23）内房股指数上涨0.43%。我们认为节后楼市走向仍为板块短期走势关键，房 企业绩压力提前释放、政策不断释放积极信号等背景下，优质房企仍具备配置价值。投资建议方面，建议关注三条主线：1）历史包袱较轻、库存 结构优化、拿地及产品力强的房企有望持续受益"好房子"建设，如华润置地、建发国际集团、滨江集团、中国海外发展、绿城中国、招商蛇口、 保利发展、越秀地产等；2）受益香港楼市止跌回稳的港资地产如新鸿基地产、恒基地产、信和置业等，同时关注商业运营商 ...