证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20260207 海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪或会好转 【勘误版】 [Table_Summary] 基金规模统计：（2026.2.2-2026.2.6） 市场行情展望：（2026.2.9-2026.2.13） 基金配置建议： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 《商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被 "错杀"？》 2026-02-04 《黄金 ETF，2026 年 1 月复盘与 2 月 证券分析师 芦哲 展望》 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 2026-02-03 执业证书：S0600524120016 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 权益类 ETF 基金规模变化统计：规模变化排名前三名的权益类 ETF 类 型分别为：规模指数 ETF（154.06 亿元），跨境行业指数 ETF（66.24 亿 元），策略指数 ETF（53.71 亿元）；基金规模变化排名后三名的权益 类 ETF 类型分别为：跨境规模 ...

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.53% to 27,081.91 points, driven by a rebound in the technology sector[13] - European markets showed mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index down 0.5%, while the UK FTSE 100 index remained relatively stable, closing at 10,684.74 points[11] - US markets faced significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 1.7% to 48,804.1 points, marking its largest single-day drop since January 20[11] Economic Indicators - China's GDP is projected to grow by 4.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026, benefiting from a high base effect and increased consumer spending during the extended Spring Festival holiday[6] - The average daily cross-regional flow of people during the Spring Festival increased by nearly 9% compared to the previous year, boosting hotel and flight prices[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices surged by 2.87%, closing at $5,204.7 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties[32] - The US dollar index fell by 0.1%, with the euro and yen appreciating against the dollar[32] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year yield down 4 basis points to 3.44%, reflecting heightened risk aversion in the market[35] - Asian credit markets remained stable, with spreads narrowing by 1 basis point, as investors cautiously monitored US tariff developments[35] Sector Performance - In the US, technology and software stocks were heavily sold off, with IBM experiencing a drop of over 13%, while major tech stocks like Microsoft and Meta fell by approximately 3%[11] - In Hong Kong, the materials sector led gains with a 4.3% increase, while the energy sector saw minimal growth of 0.2%[14]

近期，稀土价格连续上涨成为市场关注的焦点之一。今日早盘稀土板块交投火热，资金借道ETF布局稀 土赛道意愿升温。稀土ETF（516780）最新交易周（26/2/9-2/13）累计吸金4.41亿元，成为同期A股市场 仅有的区间资金净流入超4亿元的稀土主题ETF，助推其基金份额、基金规模分别攀升至16.40亿份、 32.79亿元，双双创2026年以来阶段性新高。 消息面上，近期美国宣布计划启动一项名为"金库计划"的关键矿产储备项目，旨在为汽车企业、科技公 司和制造商采购并储存包括稀土在内的战略性矿产资源。此举进一步强化了稀土作为"战略金属"的长期 溢价逻辑。 分析指出，国内稀土价格未来上涨预期持续攀升，当前氧化镨钕价格突破80万元/吨关口，2026年一季 度稀土产业有望保持业绩高增。长期看，稀土行业供需关系有望持续改善，供给方面，开采与冶炼分离 实行总量调控，国内指标增速放缓，供给增长滞后于需求扩张；需求方面，机器人、低空经济、军工等 产业快速发展拉动需求释放。此外，海外冶炼成本高企等因素也对价格形成支撑，稀土战略价值有望迎 来重估。 据悉，稀土ETF（516780）及其联接基金（A类014331、C类014332 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Nonferrous Metals ETF Fund (516650), which opened with a gain of 3.12% at 2.212 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the Nonferrous Metals ETF Fund include Zijin Mining, which rose by 4.53%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium, all showing significant increases in their stock prices [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Sub-Industry Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 114.05% since its inception on June 9, 2021, and a 1.50% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of rare metals and their prices, driven by supply-side reforms and increasing demand for exports, particularly in the rare earth sector [1][2] - The Zhongzheng Rare Metals Theme Index saw a significant increase of 3.00%, with key stocks such as Plating Technology rising by 9.34% and Yongxing Materials by 7.27% [1] - Prices of major rare earth oxides, including praseodymium-neodymium oxide, terbium oxide, and dysprosium oxide, increased by 13.51%, 5.90%, and 9.02% respectively, reaching near historical highs [1] Group 2 - Tungsten prices also surged, with tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate prices rising by 15.99% and 15.11% respectively, driven by strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. and export controls from China [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Rare Metals Theme Index account for 59.71% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment opportunity in the sector [2] - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) serves as a convenient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the rare metals sector [3]

（3）新能源及小金属板块：新能源及小金属受假期效应影响交投平淡。锂板块矿端点价相对活跃，下 游已完成部分节前补库，后续方向有赖于电动车及储能终端增速的验证；镍板块受印尼产业政策落地及 矿端紧缺预期影响，成本重心上移形成底部支撑。稀土市场因节假日询报价热度降低，下游磁材需求偏 弱致成交受限，但随着金融属性对该板块的渗透加深，后续价格波动的弹性或将有所放大。 截至2026年2月24日 10:44，有色金属ETF(512400)上涨3.69%，盘中换手2.13%，成交8.02亿元。跟踪指 数中证申万有色金属指数成分股白银有色上涨10.03%，铂科新材上涨8.23%，铜陵有色上涨7.80%，永 兴材料，兴业银锡等个股跟涨。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属指数，中证申万有色金属指数从沪深市场申万有色金 属及非金属材料行业中选取50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映沪深市场有色金属行业上市公司证 券的整体表现。指数前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、北方稀土、中国铝业、华友钴业、中金 黄金、山东黄金、兴业银锡、赣锋锂业、赤峰黄金。 春节期间海外有色金属市场整体呈现偏强震荡格局，三方面因素共同重塑 ...

铝：截至2月12日，电解铝库存89.2万吨，周度累库5.6万吨，较2025年同期增加36万吨，社库规模为近三年同期高 位，供需错配的压力逐步凸显。供应端，国内及印尼电解铝项目稳步爬产。需求端，春节来临，下游对原料需求 边际转弱，叠加铝价较高，企业铸锭意愿大幅增强，2月铝水比例走低，成为驱动国内铝库存上行的核心因素。展 望后市，当前电解铝锭累库驱动逻辑未发生实质改变，铝水比例下滑进一步加剧铝锭供给压力，叠加春节假期临 近市场交投氛围逐步进入停滞状态，国内铝锭累库节奏将明显加快，预计节后首周国内铝锭库存将攀升至120万吨 附近。重点关注：中国宏桥、天山铝业、神火股份、云铝股份、中国铝业、创新实业、百通能源。 # 领导开工大吉，祝您# 2026年投资马到成功！ 有色观点更新120260223 铜：宏观层面，国内因春节前资金偏谨慎，海外方面，上周五美国最高法院裁决废除特朗普部分全球关税成为最 大催化剂，显著缓解贸易不确定性，风险偏好回升推动铜价反弹，但特朗普迅速援引1974年《 # 领导开工大吉，祝您# 2026年投资马到成功！ 有色观点更新120260223 铜：宏观层面，国内因春节前资金偏谨慎，海外方面，上周五美 ...

2026年2月24日早盘，稀土永磁概念盘中走强，截至10:16，中证稀土产业指数强势上涨2.53%，成分股 铂科新材上涨7.77%，金风科技上涨6.14%，中稀有色上涨6.13%，中色股份，盛新锂能等个股跟涨。 银河证券指出，AI硬件已成为当前AI应用落地最确定的受益方向，国内春节期间AI眼镜销量激增 70%-80%、AI玩具成交同比暴增500倍、宇树人形机器人集群协同运动刷新全球纪录，这些终端爆发背 后均高度依赖高性能钕铁硼永磁材料提供的精密动力输出与响应能力，硬件规模化放量将直接拉动上游 稀土功能材料需求。 稀土ETF嘉实(516150)紧密跟踪中证稀土产业指数，是一键布局国内稀土产业链的便利工具。 场外投资者还可以通过稀土ETF嘉实联接基金（011036）把握稀土投资机遇。 此外，全球能源转型正从政策驱动迈向设备落地阶段，印度拟放宽对中国电力设备进口限制、2025年国 内风电新增装机37.9GW、煤电投资同比增长27.7%。光大证券研报观点认为，风电发电机、核电控制棒 驱动机构、特高压变压器等核心装备均需大量高性能烧结钕铁硼磁体，设备国产化加速与海外订单回流 将同步强化稀土永磁材料的战略价值。 数据显示 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals prices have been rising during the Spring Festival, with spot gold reaching $5,200 per ounce, marking a nearly 2% increase since January 30 [1] - The main silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 13%, reaching 22,366 yuan per kilogram [1] - The U.S. macroeconomic data, including resilient employment figures and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, have weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts, pushing the anticipated first rate cut from June to July [1] Group 2 - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has risen by 3.44%, with component stocks such as silver and copper showing significant gains, including a 9.40% increase in silver and a 6.59% rise in Xinyi Silver [2] - The Nonferrous Metals Industry Index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metals sector, based on a selection of 50 securities with strong scale and liquidity [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 49.87% of the total, including major companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [2]

Macro Insights - During the Spring Festival, significant overseas events occurred, including heightened tensions in the Middle East leading to a sharp increase in international oil prices, a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court declaring Trump's IEEPA tariffs illegal, and U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations, which complicates short-term market rate cut predictions [1] - In January, U.S. CPI growth rate unexpectedly declined due to falling food and gasoline prices, with expectations that tariff impacts on inflation are nearing their peak, potentially easing pressure on rate cuts [2] - Financial data at the start of the year showed stable performance, with direct financing growth driven by fiscal measures offsetting weak on-balance-sheet credit growth, and social financing growth remaining above 8% year-on-year [3] Bond Market Insights - The convertible bond market is expected to experience short-term trading opportunities due to calendar effects, but investors should remain cautious of high valuation risks in the medium term [4] - There is a need to address "involution" in competition to prevent unreasonable credit growth, with a preference for stable and realistic credit data over inflated growth figures [5] - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs showed an overall price increase, with the China REITs index closing at 804.77, reflecting a weekly return of 0.32% [6] Banking Sector Insights - In January, loan growth was lower than expected, with corporate loans being the main contributor, while household loan demand may weaken in February due to seasonal factors [10] - Commercial banks reported a net profit of 2.38 trillion yuan in 2025, with a net interest margin growth of 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability [11] Strategic Metals Insights - The current environment of "de-globalization, stockpiling, and weakening dollar credit" is reminiscent of the 1970s, leading to a positive outlook on the valuation of strategic metals [12] Company-Specific Insights - Huahong Semiconductor's Q4 2025 performance met expectations, with a projected net profit growth of 158% in 2026, supported by high utilization rates and price stability [13] - Lenovo Group's FY26 Q3 revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, with strategic restructuring expected to help its ISG business return to profitability [14] - Budweiser APAC's Q4 2025 revenue was $1.073 billion, with a focus on regaining market share in China, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2026-2027 [15]