Economic Policy and Market Outlook - Recent economic policies, including structural interest rate cuts, are expected to support economic growth, potentially leading to a "good start" in the first quarter of 2026, although final performance will depend on forthcoming data [5] - The financial market policies have moderated previously overheated sectors, indicating that the market may not sustain its rapid upward trend and could transition into a more volatile phase [5] Fund Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market saw an overall increase, while domestic equity markets experienced fluctuations; TMT-themed funds performed well, whereas defense and military-themed funds faced net value declines [5] - There was a notable reduction in passive fund holdings across various broad-based ETFs, with over 130 billion yuan flowing out of large-cap ETFs, while TMT and cyclical theme ETFs attracted over 60 billion yuan in net inflows [5] Economic Data Insights - The economic landscape in 2025 is characterized by a "high before low" trend, with supply outpacing demand and external demand exceeding internal demand [6] - In December 2025, industrial production growth rates increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while fixed asset investment saw a widening decline, and retail sales growth continued to decrease [6] Oil and Geopolitical Factors - Heightened geopolitical tensions in Iran have increased the geopolitical risk premium on oil, contributing to rising oil prices; as of January 16, 2026, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $64.20 and $59.22 per barrel, reflecting increases of 1.9% and 0.7% respectively [7] - The ongoing international instability is likely to provide a favorable foundation for oil price trends in the long term [7] Infrastructure Investment - The State Grid has announced a planned fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, focusing on power grid and energy storage sectors [8] - Key projects for 2026 will concentrate on ultra-high voltage and pumped storage, indicating potential opportunities in power infrastructure orders and renewable energy consumption [8] Power Consumption and Digitalization - In 2025, the total electricity consumption in society increased by 5.0% year-on-year [9] - The State Grid's investment in new power systems is expected to enhance capacity pricing, with projected capacity prices for 2026 estimated at 6.3 cents per kilowatt-hour, a 4-cent increase from the previous year [9] Pharmaceutical Sector Innovations - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are experiencing a surge driven by innovation, including overseas expansion, AI applications, and new technologies, alongside policy support and seasonal market dynamics [9] - Key focus areas include innovative drugs, CXO services, AI healthcare, brain-computer interfaces, and small nucleic acid drugs, with ongoing attention required on post-JPM conference collaborations and clinical data outcomes [9]

Group 1 - The market's attention on the power equipment industry chain continues to rise, with significant stock performance in the A-share ultra-high voltage sector, including a 16% increase in Electric Power Research Institute and multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The State Grid announced an expected fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on ultra-high voltage transmission, smart distribution networks, and microgrid construction [1] - The investment structure is expected to shift towards emerging fields such as ultra-high voltage, smart distribution, and energy storage, indicating a transition from traditional infrastructure to a dual drive of "technology upgrade + demand upgrade" [1] Group 2 - Companies like Jinzhu Pipeline and Zhejiang Dazhongnan are clarifying their business dynamics in response to the market's focus on ultra-high voltage, with Jinzhu's products applicable in various sectors including ultra-high voltage transmission [2] - The global energy infrastructure update is a driving force behind the current ultra-high voltage market, with a report from Goldman Sachs highlighting the aging of European and American power grids and the increasing demand for AI data centers [2] - The future development of the ultra-high voltage sector is driven by both domestic and international markets, with domestic investments entering a stable cycle and overseas grid upgrades providing opportunities for Chinese equipment exports [2] Group 3 - Chinese power equipment companies are seizing historic opportunities for international expansion, with new orders related to overseas AI computing center projects [3] - Companies like Jerry Holdings and Boying Special Welding are expanding their production capabilities to meet the growing demand for power generation equipment in Southeast Asia [3] - The investment in new power systems and ultra-high voltage is expected to continue increasing, with approximately 40% of the investment from the State Grid and Southern Power Grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan period directed towards upgrading and expanding transmission and transformation equipment [3] Group 4 - The explosion of AI computing power is becoming a new growth driver, with projections indicating that global AI data center installed capacity will rise from 15 GW in 2024 to 66 GW by 2027, potentially leading to a transformer market size of 26.4 billion yuan by 2027 [4] Group 5 - The power grid is evolving from a simple energy transmission network to a digital infrastructure supporting the digital economy, with the ability to manage a reliable, flexible, and intelligent power system becoming crucial for future energy discourse [5] - The ultra-high voltage and power equipment industry is at a complex development stage, with opportunities arising from energy transition and digital economy trends, but also facing challenges such as structural shortages and technological competition [5]

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 报告摘要 首先，明确口径。国家电网"以投资建设运营电网为核心业务"，但国家电网主要公布电网投资数据，固定资 产投资数据仅零星公布，从 2021 年数据来看，固定资产投资、电网投资分别为 4972 、 4730 亿元，二者 近乎等价。其次，据新华社报道，十五五时期国家电网固定资产投资预计增长 40% ，作为对比，十四五时 期，电网投资约 2.77 万亿、可比增速为 16.4% （未公布固定资产投资数据）， 即十五五时期 40% 的投 资增速较十四五（ 16.4% 左右）有较大提升。 第二，可能的考量？ 参考两方面信息： 1 ） 2025 年 12 月，国家电网公司党组会议上提及"坚决把党中央 扩大内需的决策 部署 落到实处，充分发挥电网基础支撑和投资拉动作用，以更大的力度、更实的举措助力扩内需、稳增长"； 2 ） 2025 年 12 月国家发展改革委、国家能源局印发《关于促进电网高质量发展的指导意见》，提及"加大 电网投资力度。 落实国家重大战略部署，适度超前、不 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Insights - The cleanroom and overseas expansion remain highly prosperous, with the State Grid announcing a 40% increase in fixed asset investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3][19] - The construction industry is expected to see improved cash flow and profitability due to accelerated recovery of accounts receivable, supported by a positive fiscal outlook for 2026 and sufficient infrastructure demand [1][16] - Semiconductor and cloud service providers are expected to increase capital expenditures significantly, driving demand for cleanroom construction and benefiting leading companies in this sector [2][17] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The cleanroom and overseas expansion are experiencing sustained high demand, with the State Grid's fixed asset investment projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [3][19] - The government is focusing on clearing overdue payments to enterprises, which is likely to improve cash flow for construction companies [1][16] Market Performance - The construction industry saw a weekly increase of 0.27%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which decreased by 0.57% [20] - Other specialized engineering sectors performed better, with notable increases in the other professional engineering sector (3.05%) and engineering consulting services (0.90%) [20] Company Announcements - China National Chemical Corporation reported new contracts worth approximately 712.35 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12% [18][31] - The State Grid's investment plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to significantly benefit the power grid construction sector [19][31] Key Focus Stocks - Recommended stocks include China State Construction Engineering, China Communications Construction Company, and cleanroom engineering leaders like Yaxiang Integration and Shenghui Integration, which are expected to benefit from high demand and overseas business growth [11][10][11]

Market Analysis - On January 19, the market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering to 4100 points, ending a four-day decline, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.09% and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.7%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.71 trillion yuan, a decrease of 317.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Investment in Power Grid - The State Grid's investment plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan period amounts to 4 trillion yuan, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, indicating a new phase of rapid growth in China's power grid construction. This investment aims to enhance energy transition, build a new power system, and ensure energy security [6][10]. - The investment structure focuses on smart upgrades of distribution networks, with significant allocations for ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects, which are expected to reach 800 billion yuan, more than doubling from the previous plan [7]. - The distribution network is projected to receive 2.48 trillion yuan, accounting for 63% of total investments, driven by the need for large-scale integration of renewable energy and urban-rural network upgrades [9]. Company Insights - Dalian Electric Porcelain, a leader in high-voltage porcelain insulators, holds a market share of approximately 50% in the domestic ultra-high voltage projects. The company is expected to see significant growth in overseas markets, with a projected increase in overseas sales to 35%-40% of total revenue by 2026 [12][14]. - Zhongdian Port, a top electronic component distributor, reported a revenue of 50.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 33.29% year-on-year increase. The company is focusing on AI and computing sectors, with a notable growth in its AI-related revenue [17][20]. Liquid Methane Technology - Shudao Equipment is a leader in deep cooling technology, focusing on the liquefaction and storage of gases at extreme low temperatures. The company has secured substantial orders in the field of rocket-grade liquid methane, which is becoming a preferred fuel for next-generation reusable rockets due to its clean combustion and cost-effectiveness [23][25]. - Liquid methane offers advantages such as low maintenance costs and ease of sourcing, making it a competitive alternative to traditional rocket fuels [26].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor capital expenditure is expected to benefit cleanroom construction, with China's State Grid planning a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, representing a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [4]. Semiconductor Capital Expenditure - TSMC anticipates a capital expenditure of $52 to $56 billion in 2026, an increase of 27% to 37% from 2025's $40.9 billion. In Q4 2025, TSMC's revenue is projected to grow by 20.5% year-on-year and 1.9% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit increase of 35% year-on-year and 11.8% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - ChangXin Technology plans to raise 29.5 billion yuan through an IPO, focusing on upgrading DRAM manufacturing lines and R&D for advanced technologies [2]. - Micron Technology's capital expenditure for fiscal year 2026 is set to rise from $18 billion to approximately $20 billion, aimed at enhancing HBM capacity and supply capabilities for 1-gamma products [2]. - Tongfu Microelectronics intends to raise no more than 4.4 billion yuan for storage chip testing and packaging, as well as capacity enhancement in emerging applications [2]. Cleanroom Industry Benefits - Yaxing Integrated's parent company reported a consolidated revenue of 9.5 billion New Taiwan dollars (approximately 2.1 billion yuan) in December, marking a year-on-year increase of 165.2% and a month-on-month increase of 11.7%. The consolidated revenue for Q4 reached 25.08 billion New Taiwan dollars (approximately 5.54 billion yuan), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 133.7% [3]. - Yaxing Integrated's revenue is expected to account for 37% of its parent company's revenue in 2024 and 26% in the first three quarters of 2025 [3]. - New contracts signed by Yaxing Integrated include a project worth 3.16 billion yuan in April 2025 and another worth 1.58 billion yuan in July 2025 [3]. State Grid Investment - The State Grid's fixed asset investment is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan. This investment aims to enhance system regulation capabilities and support large-scale development of new energy storage [4]. - China Power Construction has completed over 65% of large and medium-sized hydropower station construction in China, holding a 90% market share in the design of pumped storage power stations and 78% in construction [4]. - China Energy Engineering possesses key technologies in various energy sectors, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.95, indicating a 41% percentile over the past decade [4]. Government Actions - The State Council has initiated actions to clear overdue payments to enterprises, aiming to expedite the issuance of special bonds to support this effort [5]. - As of Q3 2025, major construction state-owned enterprises have varying debt-to-asset ratios, with China Power Construction at 80.2% and China Railway Construction at 79.1% [5]. - The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference has commenced, focusing on integrating innovation, industry, finance, and talent [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the utility sector [4] Core Insights - China's annual electricity consumption has surpassed 10 trillion kWh, making it the first country to reach this milestone. The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan. The focus will be on promoting renewable energy installations and enhancing the electricity consumption structure [2][21][23] Summary by Sections 1. National Electricity Consumption - In 2025, China's total electricity consumption reached 10.37 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.24%. The growth was primarily driven by the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity use, contributing 50% to the overall increase. Notably, the charging and swapping service industry saw a growth of 48.8% [3][50][21] 2. Weekly Sector Review - From January 12 to January 16, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, while the utility index rose by 0.06%. The performance varied across sub-sectors, with the thermal power sector increasing by 0.35% and the photovoltaic sector rising by 4.14% [29][31] 3. Utility Sector Dynamics 3.1 Electricity Tracking - In January 2026, the average transaction price in Jiangsu was 324.71 yuan/MWh, down 4.38% month-on-month and 19.87% year-on-year. In Shanxi, the average price in December 2025 was 292.07 yuan/MWh, up 1.03% month-on-month but down 7.35% year-on-year [39][41] - The total national electricity generation in November 2025 was approximately 779.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.96% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.62% [42] 3.2 Water Conditions - As of January 17, 2026, the water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 170.34 meters, which is normal compared to 168.70 meters in the same period of 2025. The inflow and outflow rates also showed increases of 2.78% and 19.49% year-on-year, respectively [53] 3.3 Coal Price and Inventory Tracking - The CCI index for thermal coal was reported at 704 yuan/ton as of January 14, 2026, reflecting a rise of 10 yuan/ton from January 7. The inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased to 5.66 million tons as of January 18, 2026 [59][65] 3.4 Natural Gas Price Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in China was 3849 yuan/ton as of January 16, 2026, up 0.92% from January 9. The LNG import price was reported at 9.95 USD/million BTU, an increase of 6.08% [69] 4. Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on waste incineration power generation and resource recovery capabilities, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential. Long-term investment in stable dividend-paying assets is recommended, particularly in the hydroelectric sector [72]

Core Viewpoint - China's ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission technology has emerged as a global benchmark, showcasing its technological prowess and strategic importance in energy distribution, particularly in the context of energy security and international competition [2][21][28] Group 1: Challenges Faced by Western Countries - The extreme cold weather in Texas in February 2021 exposed the vulnerabilities of developed countries' power grids, leading to widespread power outages affecting over 4 million residents [4][6] - The fragmentation of the U.S. power grid into three independent systems has hindered cross-regional support, turning Texas into an isolated "energy island" during crises [6][10] - Existing ultra-high voltage technologies in many countries have reached their performance limits, making long-distance power transmission economically unfeasible [8][10] Group 2: China's Energy Distribution Dilemma - China faces a significant energy distribution imbalance, with major energy resources located far from consumption centers, necessitating the development of UHV technology to address this issue [12][13] - The reliance on coal transportation from the northwest to the eastern coastal regions has strained supply capabilities, leading to power shortages and economic constraints [15] Group 3: Development of UHV Technology in China - The decision to pursue UHV technology was a high-stakes gamble for China, requiring substantial investment and overcoming significant technical challenges [15][17] - After intense debates among experts, a UHV plan was approved, leading to a collaborative effort involving over 300 organizations and thousands of researchers to tackle core technical issues [17][19] - China successfully developed new materials and transportation solutions, enabling the construction of UHV systems that were previously deemed impossible [19] Group 4: Global Leadership and Standardization - By 2025, China plans to have 45 UHV projects operational, providing clean energy to nearly 900 million residents and significantly reducing coal consumption and pollution [21][25] - China has established itself as a leader in the global UHV sector, setting international standards and influencing global energy practices, even compelling the U.S. to adopt Chinese standards [23][25] - The ambition extends to creating a global energy internet, aiming to interconnect power grids worldwide and break down regional energy barriers [23][25] Group 5: Systemic Advantages and Future Outlook - The rise of China's UHV technology reflects the country's ability to mobilize resources effectively, innovate under pressure, and collaborate across industries [27] - This achievement demonstrates China's capability not only to catch up with global trends but also to define future directions in energy technology [28]

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of energy transition presents a historic investment opportunity in power grid construction, with a projected investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a 40% increase from the previous plan [3]. Group 1: Investment Scale and Growth - The 4 trillion yuan investment in the power grid is equivalent to the annual GDP of some medium-sized countries, setting a new record for grid construction and indicating a new cycle of prosperity in the energy and power industry [3]. - This investment growth aligns with the changing electricity demand across society, particularly due to the surge in electricity needs driven by AI development [3]. - By 2025, China's total electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing a 5% year-on-year growth and positioning China as the global leader in electricity consumption for the first time in human history [3]. Group 2: Challenges and Requirements - The advancement of China's "dual carbon" goals is leading to an increased share of renewable energy generation, which raises higher demands for the stability and flexibility of the power grid [4]. - The characteristics of distributed photovoltaic systems, such as "multi-point access and bidirectional power supply," impose greater requirements on the grid [4]. - The rising penetration of electric vehicles is driving the construction of charging stations, which, due to their high power and centralized electricity consumption, intensifies the load pressure on the power grid [4]. Group 3: Investment Directions - The 4 trillion yuan investment by the State Grid will unfold along several clear main lines, each corresponding to specific industrial opportunities [5].

Group 1 - The main focus of today's A-share market is the electric grid, with significant stock price increases in related companies [1] - YN Power on the Beijing Stock Exchange surged by 30% in a single day, while China XD Electric (601179) hit the daily limit, and State Grid NARI (600406) also saw substantial gains [1] - A total of 22 concept stocks related to the electric grid reached their daily limit, indicating a strong market response [1] Group 2 - The surge in the electric grid sector is driven by a massive investment plan from the State Grid, amounting to nearly 4 trillion yuan, representing a 40% increase compared to the previous five years [1] - This upgrade is not just about expanding infrastructure but aims to revolutionize technology for the next decade, focusing on AI and digital technologies for smart grid management [1] - The upgrade will address the increasing electricity demand from AI, electric vehicles, and smart factories while solving renewable energy transmission challenges through high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems [1] Group 3 - The current market trend reflects a global power struggle, with rising electricity demands leading to a phenomenon termed "electricity anxiety" [2] - Major tech companies are being urged to manage their electricity costs, highlighting the critical nature of power supply issues [2] - The recent surge in stock prices is seen as the initial impact of the 4 trillion yuan investment plan, marking the beginning of a new investment landscape in the power sector [2]