上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 01-21 02-21 03-21 04-21 05-21 06-21 07-21 08-21 09-21 10-21 11-21 12-21 01-21 宝丰能源 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 21.65 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 22.17/13.85 | | 市净率 | 3.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.21 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 158,767 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 4,116.94 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed companies are entering a concentrated disclosure period for their 2025 performance forecasts, with over 580 companies having disclosed their forecasts, and around 300 companies expecting a year-on-year increase in net profit [1] Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Among the companies with positive performance forecasts, 100 companies expect a net profit increase of over 100%, and 17 companies anticipate an increase of over 300% [1] - The electronics, semiconductor, new energy, and non-ferrous metals industries are showing particularly strong performance [1] Group 2: Notable Companies and Their Forecasts - Huisheng Biological is expected to have a net profit increase of 1265.93% to 1444.54%, with a forecasted net profit of 235 million to 271 million yuan, attributed to market expansion and price increases [2] - Zijin Mining, a leader in the non-ferrous metals sector, forecasts a net profit of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, driven by increased production and sales prices [3] - Shenghong Technology, a PCB leader, anticipates a net profit of 4.16 billion to 4.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 260.35% to 295%, supported by advancements in AI computing and high-performance computing [4] Group 3: Industry Trends - The "hard technology" sector is experiencing enhanced profitability due to the growing global demand for AI infrastructure and computing power [3] - Companies like Bawei Storage expect a net profit increase of 427.19% to 520.22%, with improvements in sales revenue and gross margin anticipated from the second quarter of 2025 [3] - Other technology companies, including Changxin Bochuang and Ding Tai High-Tech, are also forecasting potential doubling or more in their performance [5]

Group 1 - The first "Excellence Engineer Education Certification Standards" has been released, marking a significant reform in the organized and large-scale training of excellent engineers in China, with nearly 26,000 master's and doctoral students recruited through school-enterprise collaboration, over 2,000 of whom have graduated and entered the workforce [3] - Shanghai universities are pioneering a new model for cultivating excellent engineering talent, which is replicable and scalable, with plans for cross-regional recruitment of around 60 engineering master's and doctoral students in collaboration with higher research institutes in Ningxia, Qinghai, and Anhui [3] - The collaboration between East China University of Science and Technology (ECUST) and Ningxia Higher Research Institute aims to cultivate practical talents who understand both technology and industry, addressing the core needs of regional development [5] Group 2 - The innovative "waste-to-waste" technology developed by a doctoral student is set to enter the pilot testing phase, potentially saving enterprises millions in pollution control costs [6] - In 2024, ECUST plans to enroll 49 engineering master's and doctoral students, accounting for 21% of the total enrollment at Ningxia Higher Research Institute, with ongoing recruitment efforts extending to Anhui and Qinghai [6] - A collaborative project between ECUST and a local water company has led to the development of a "smart water management platform," which is expected to enhance wastewater treatment capabilities significantly [12] Group 3 - The establishment of the Ningxia Higher Research Institute represents a strategic partnership aimed at addressing the urgent needs for industrial upgrading and green transformation in the Ningdong region, which is the largest coal chemical industry base in China [9] - ECUST has initiated a series of cooperative projects, including the establishment of a national innovation center in Ningdong, focusing on key technologies for digital and green transformation [10] - The collaboration has resulted in over 35 cooperative projects with a total investment exceeding 180 million yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of integrating education and industry [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the chemical sector is experiencing a shift from overcapacity to scarcity, driven by controlled supply and increasing demand, particularly in the Asia, Africa, and Latin America regions [1] - The export growth of chemical products is notable, with many products seeing overseas exposure exceeding 20%, indicating a move away from reliance on domestic real estate [1] - A new paradigm in inventory cycles is emerging, transitioning from a dual demand structure of China and the US to a triad that includes Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which is gradually proving effective [1] Group 2 - As of January 21, 2026, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose nearly 1%, with notable increases in component stocks such as Yara International (3.67%) and Zhejiang Longsheng (2.95%) [2] - The Chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index and has shown a three-day consecutive rise, currently priced at 0.9 yuan [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 45.31% of the index, including major companies like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co [2]

Group 1 - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index decreased by 0.57% as of January 21, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including Zhejiang Longsheng and Yara International leading gains, while Luxi Chemical and Hengyi Petrochemical faced declines [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) fell by 0.50%, with a latest price of 1 yuan and a record high scale of 625 million yuan, having attracted a total net inflow of 344 million yuan over the past 10 days [1] - The Petrochemical ETF has seen a net value increase of 64.29% over the past two years, with the highest single-month return reaching 15.86% and the longest consecutive monthly gain lasting for 8 months, with an average monthly return of 5.25% [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index as of December 31, 2025, include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 56.73% of the index [2] - The performance of key stocks includes Wanhua Chemical down by 1.79%, China Petroleum up by 0.30%, and China Petrochemical down by 0.33%, among others [4] - The Petrochemical ETF closely tracks the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, with various linked products available for investment [4] Group 3 - Huaxin Securities remains optimistic about the three major oil companies, particularly China Petrochemical, which benefits from lower raw material costs due to declining international oil prices [1] - Private refining companies are also expected to gain from the current downturn in oil prices due to their higher chemical yield and production efficiency [1]

【西部化工&新材料】"海外产能加速退出+国内反内卷"，龙头企业产能大幅增长涨价弹性大，重视化工行业板块 机会！ #化工龙头产能已大幅增长，涨价弹性大。 近年来化工行业海外产能加速退出，国内扩产接近尾声，叠加反内卷政策，化工行业价格价差有望修复。 我们认为市场忽视了化工企业扩产带来的涨价潜力，当前化工龙头尽管盈利仍然低于21年，但产能已较21年大幅 增长，且全球份额大幅领先，产品价格略做抬升后 【西部化工&新材料】"海外产能加速退出+国内反内卷"，龙头企业产能大幅增长涨价弹性大，重视化工行业板块 机会！ #化工龙头产能已大幅增长，涨价弹性大。 近年来化工行业海外产能加速退出，国内扩产接近尾声，叠加反内卷政策，化工行业价格价差有望修复。 我们认为市场忽视了化工企业扩产带来的涨价潜力，当前化工龙头尽管盈利仍然低于21年，但产能已较21年大幅 增长，且全球份额大幅领先，产品价格略做抬升后的业绩弹性将大于21年。 ＃我们对18家龙头进行分情景业绩弹性测算，欢迎联系我们交流！ #受益标的： 原油（中国海油、中曼石油、洲际油气）；炼化（中国石油、中国石化、恒力石化、荣盛石化）； 长丝PTA（新凤鸣、桐昆股份）。 #农药：海 ...

先看海外要闻： 美股大跌，道指收跌1.76%、纳指收跌2.39%、标普500收跌2.06%；英伟达收跌4.38%，特斯拉跌4.17%，苹果跌3.46%，亚马逊跌3.40%，Meta跌 2.60%，谷歌A跌2.42%，微软跌1.16%。 马斯克兑现承诺，开源X推荐算法。 大家早上壕！ OpenAI与ServiceNow在商业软件领域达成AI Agent合作协议。 分析师：2030年前 OpenAI广告年收入有望达250亿美元。 报道：三星美国厂3月启动EUV试产，计划下半年量产特斯拉AI芯片。 花旗集团将闪迪目标股价从280美元上调至490美元。 Neuralink首例受试者：脑机接口已能实现OTA升级。 据央视，加拿大百年来首次模拟美国军事入侵；丹麦官员称欧盟已准备好对美国商品加征反制关税。 财政部长贝森特：美国计划对关键矿产设定价格下限和上限。 美国天然气期货日内涨超25%。 COMEX黄金期货涨3.70%，报4765.50美元/盎司，盘中一度刷新历史高位至4771.50美元。 国内重大事件汇总： 1、习近平:努力提高国民经济循环质量和效率，让内需成为经济发展的主动力。（新华社） 到2026年底，台积电WM ...

A股逐步迎来业绩预告高峰。截至1月20日晚间，已有超过500家A股公司披露2025年业绩预告或业绩快 报。 2025年，在AI技术的强势赋能下，科技领域多个细分赛道保持高景气态势，产业链上下游大量企业凭 借技术迭代与需求释放，实现了业绩的稳健增长。而光伏、白酒、生猪养殖等细分领域受市场环境波 动、供需格局调整等因素影响，企业业绩承压。 百余家公司预计净利翻倍 据证券时报记者统计，截至1月20日19时，共有525家A股公司披露2025年业绩预告或业绩快报，其中约 200家企业预计2025年业绩实现增长，逾百家企业预计归母净利润最高增幅将超过100%。 目前预计净利润增幅最高的是回盛生物。该公司主要从事兽用药品、饲料及添加剂研发、产销。1月9 日，公司披露业绩预告，预计2025年归母净利润2.35亿元至2.71亿元，同比增长1265.93%至1444.54%。 回盛生物表示，2025年公司积极开拓海内外市场，营业收入实现国内、国外双增长。收入的增长促进了 净利润同比大幅增长，同时公司技术创新升级、制剂与原料药产能利用率提升及原料药价格上涨等因素 驱动盈利能力提升。 良好的业绩推动回盛生物股价大幅攀升。自业绩预告披 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The majority of stocks are underperforming today, but sectors such as electric grid, semiconductor equipment and materials, and chemicals continue to strengthen [1] - The chemical sector is entering an accelerated phase, similar to previous cycles where cyclical commodities performed well [2] Group 2: Chemical Sector Insights - Key companies in the chemical sector include: - Hengli Petrochemical (600346): Market cap of 47.089 billion, focusing on refining products [2] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493): Market cap of 32.776 billion, involved in refining and chemical products [2] - Lianhe Chemical (000301): Market cap of 24.954 billion, focusing on refining and other petrochemicals [2] - Other notable companies include Tongkun Co. (601233), Huafeng Chemical (002064), and Wanhua Chemical (600309) with respective market caps of 28.339 billion, 21.981 billion, and 142.694 billion [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - A gradual accumulation strategy is being employed, indicating a traditional institutional operation method that has entered a stable second phase [3] - Holding onto these stocks over a longer period is expected to yield better returns compared to frequent trading [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Caution is advised regarding potential sudden market declines, although significant corrections are not anticipated [4] - The current market is characterized by oscillation, making sector selection crucial to avoid stark contrasts in performance [6] Group 5: Historical Context - Historical bull stocks serve as valuable lessons, with current bull stocks following similar patterns due to unchanging human behavior [6] - The characteristics of successful stocks include clear upward trends and compact adjustment structures [6] Group 6: Retail Investor Guidance - For retail investors, transitioning from the first to the second phase of stock performance is generally more successful than chasing high-performing stocks at peak levels [7]

2025 年 2 月 17 日 22 时 16 分，宁夏宝丰能源马莲台煤矿（以下简称马莲台煤矿）20907 切眼导硐掘进 工作面发生一起一般爆破事故，造成 11 人受伤（其中9 人重伤、2人轻伤），直接经济损失 563.8 万 元。 经调查认定，马莲台煤矿"2·17"事故是一起因20907切眼导硐掘进工作面违规爆破作业扬起煤尘形成局 部爆燃造成的生产安全责任事故。 该矿在 20907 切眼导硐掘进工作面内违规裸露爆破，爆炸扬起粉煤达到爆燃浓度，引起煤尘爆燃，是事 故的直接原因： 国家矿山安全监察局宁夏局1月19日公布《宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司马莲台煤矿"2·17"一般爆破 事故调查报告》。 1.违规裸露爆破。现场未实施打眼作业，爆破工将炸药卷直接放置在迎头浮煤堆里实施爆破。现场视频 显示，事故发生前 10 分钟内，切眼导硐浮煤上炸药滑落，爆破工将部分炸药用脚向浮煤内踩踏、部分 炸药扔在浮煤上。 2.20907 切眼导硐留有浮煤。自2 月15 日至2月17日早班共进行了 5 次爆破作业，均未按照爆破说明书实 现全断面一次爆破成型，留有 1.8 米底煤台阶。 3.未采取综合防尘措施。事故当班辅助运输下山大巷供 ...