证券研究报告 低温是核心增长极，25Q4大盘降幅收窄 ——乳制品季度专题 行业评级：看好 2026年2月27日 | 分析师 | 张潇倩 | 分析师 | 孙天一 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | zhangxiaoqian@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | suntianyi@stocke.com.cn | | 执业证书编号 | S1230526010001 | 执业证书编号 | S1230521070002 | | | | | | | | 乳制品市场销售额同比变化 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 25Q1 | | 25Q2 | | | 25Q3 | | | 25Q4 | | | | | | | | | 25.4 | 25.5 | 25.6 | 25.7 | 25.8 | 25.9 | 25.10 | 25.11 | 2 ...

转自：草原云 伊利现代智慧健康谷液态奶全球智造标杆基地内，机械手在码放牛奶。 创新平台逐步完善。围绕重点产业链，统筹布局各类创新平台，并鼓励和引导企业积极参与和建设。全 区累计培育创建国家制造业创新中心1个、自治区级制造业创新中心5个、企业技术中心276个、技术创 新示范企业36个，概念验证、科技成果转化和中试公共服务平台15个。 成果转化步伐加快。制定《内蒙古自治区新技术产业化应用指导目录》，承办工信部科技成果赋智中小 企业"深度行"活动，实施产业基础再造和重大技术攻关。全区累计推荐44个中试平台纳入工信部中试平 台储备库，3个平台入选工信部首批重点培育中试平台名单，认定各级各类技术装备"首台套"、关键零 部件及新材料"首批次"产品360个。 内蒙古日报·草原云记者：康丽娜 2月27日，内蒙古自治区人民政府新闻办召开"贯彻'1571'工作部署 推动内蒙古高质量发展"系列主题新 闻发布会第五场。记者从会上获悉：近年来，内蒙古自治区工信厅坚定走新型工业化道路，始终把科技 创新与产业创新深度融合作为推动工业高质量发展、培育新质生产力的核心抓手，多措并举，在主体培 育、平台建设、成果转化等方面取得了积极成效。 政策 ...

随着产业链深度整合、规模化牧场及奶牛单产水平均持续提升，上游产能波动放缓，奶价周期拉长。本 轮周期从2021年9月至今奶价已下行4年，累计下跌31%。供给端看，2025年9月我国奶牛存栏量相比1月 下降3.2%，牛奶产量随之增速回落，展望未来，随着饲料成本压力加大、奶价持续低位运行，牧场亏 损不断加深，存栏去化有望进一步深化，原奶产量随之实现下降。进口方面，国内大包粉仍有价格优 势，2026年进口量预计不会有显著增加。需求端看，乳制品产量已呈现边际改善，行业深加工产能即将 释放，出口大包粉及活牛的探索已逐渐落地，有望促进供需缺口进一步收窄。该行预计2026年奶价有望 实现企稳回升，届时上游牧场公司将直接受益。 全产业链龙头优势显著，肉奶价格共振有望贡献可观业绩弹性 开源证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予优然牧业(09858)"增持"评级。优然牧业是国内牧场龙头，规模 优势显著，公司在周期底部经营韧性十足，收入稳步增长，2025H1现金EBITDA仍保持增长。公司扩产 完成后进入稳健发展期，后续或将受益于原奶及肉牛价格同步上涨，有望充分释放业绩弹性。该行预计 公司2025-2027年归母净利-0.88、13.67、 ...

智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予优然牧业(09858)"增持"评级。优然牧业是国 内牧场龙头，规模优势显著，公司在周期底部经营韧性十足，收入稳步增长，2025H1现金EBITDA仍保 持增长。公司扩产完成后进入稳健发展期，后续或将受益于原奶及肉牛价格同步上涨，有望充分释放业 绩弹性。该行预计公司2025-2027年归母净利-0.88、13.67、27.68亿元，EPS分别为-0.02、0.33、0.66 元，当前股价对应2026-2027年PE为13.1、6.5倍。 开源证券主要观点如下： 公司业绩弹性主要来自于原奶价格和肉牛价格的上涨，假设其他因素不变，经测算中性假设若行业奶价 上涨3.5%，公司毛利润实现增量4.6亿元，同时成母牛估值有望提升;若肉牛价格上涨10%，淘牛亏损将 收窄1.1亿元。 随着产业链深度整合、规模化牧场及奶牛单产水平均持续提升，上游产能波动放缓，奶价周期拉长。本 轮周期从2021年9月至今奶价已下行4年，累计下跌31%。供给端看，2025年9月我国奶牛存栏量相比1月 下降3.2%，牛奶产量随之增速回落，展望未来，随着饲料成本压力加大、奶价持续低位运行，牧场亏 损 ...

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia is focusing on high-quality development, emphasizing the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, particularly in advanced manufacturing and resource deep processing [1][2][5] Group 1: Traditional Industry Transformation - The region is witnessing a significant shift from traditional industries to high-end manufacturing, with coal being transformed into high-value chemical materials [2][3] - The total investment of 48.4 billion yuan in the Ordos Baofeng 3 million tons coal-to-olefins project demonstrates the scale of transformation, producing over 9,000 tons of olefins daily [2] - Inner Mongolia has established over 500 green factories, with their output accounting for over 26% of the total industrial output value, surpassing the national average [5] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The use of intelligent production equipment in projects like the Inner Mongolia Jinglei Industrial Co. has led to a 10-15% reduction in electricity consumption and a 10% decrease in coke consumption [1] - The development of a closed-loop industrial chain in the coal-to-BDO (1,4-butanediol) sector has resulted in a 20% reduction in energy consumption and a 15% decrease in costs [2] - Breakthroughs in rare earth materials have enabled the region to become a global leader in new materials, enhancing product value by up to 10 times [3] Group 3: Green and Sustainable Practices - Inner Mongolia's coal mining sector is increasingly adopting green mining practices, with 61% of coal mines being green and 74% being intelligent [3] - The green electricity usage in the Hohhot Zaha Naor 350,000 tons green aluminum project is as high as 80%, leading to industry-leading energy consumption and carbon emissions [4] - The chemical industry is transitioning towards high-end, green circular production, with new products like high-end resins and medical materials being developed [4] Group 4: Agricultural and Food Industry Development - The dairy industry in Inner Mongolia is modernizing and brand-building, with major companies like Yili and Mengniu capturing around 60% of the national market share [5] - The region has over 62 million acres of high-standard farmland, maintaining a stable grain output of over 80 billion jin, contributing to national food security [5] - Agricultural products are evolving from basic commodities to high-end brands, with regional brands gaining recognition both domestically and internationally [5]

"岗位选择多，现场还设了宣讲会，我已经投递了三份简历，特别希望能入职！"昨天（2月26日） 是正月初十，苏州工业园区人才市场内人头攒动，求职者林苏芹手持简历在招聘展位前排队，和众多求 职者一起奔赴"马年跃新程，伯乐遇良才"马年新年开门红招聘会。本场招聘会共提供岗位1534个，现场 投递简历约1600份，初步达成就业意向400余人，迎来马年招聘"开门红"。 现场人头攒动，不少展位前都排起了长队。礼来制药、赛峰发动机、大金空调、友达光电、伊利苏 州等120余家园区重点企业齐聚一堂，带来涵盖电子半导体、智能制造、新能源、AI算法、跨境电商等 多个领域的优质岗位。 此次招聘会首次设置了"识马轩"展位，为求职者提供简历问诊服务，前来咨询的求职者络绎不绝。 新建元圆才招聘中心工作人员季佳燕成了求职者的"简历智囊"："一方面指导没带简历的求职者精简填 写关键信息，另一方面帮简历过长的求职者删减冗余内容、突出亮点。"季佳燕表示，HR最关注求职者 的期望薪资、学历、过往工作经验和关键技能，一份优质简历在求职中能起到关键作用，是求职者在 HR面前的第一印象。 为扩大服务覆盖面，现场同步开启"好工作"云直播带岗活动，线上总流量两三 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a narrow consolidation, with the leading consumption ETF (159928) declining by 0.52% and a total trading volume exceeding 350 million yuan, while net inflows over the past 60 days have surpassed 2.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai government has introduced new real estate policies, reducing the social security requirement for non-local residents to purchase homes within the outer ring from 3 years to 1 year, and allowing families with a residence permit for 5 years to buy one property without social security [3] - During the recent Spring Festival, there were reports of shortages of premium liquor, with some distributors indicating that they could not meet demand, leading to an increase in prices instead of the usual post-holiday decline [3] Group 2 - The Spring Festival has seen a significant recovery in restaurant consumption, with key retail and restaurant enterprises reporting a daily sales increase of 5.7% year-on-year, and foot traffic in 78 key pedestrian streets rising by 6.7% [5] - The demand for dining experiences during the holiday surged, with Meituan's New Year's Eve dinner reservations increasing by 105% and Douyin's group purchases rising by 185%, indicating strong consumer vitality [5] - The frozen food and seasoning sectors are benefiting from the recovery in restaurant consumption, with B-end product sales increasing due to the resurgence of dining scenes during the Spring Festival [6] Group 3 - The overall consumption trend during the Spring Festival aligns with expectations, showing a division between material and service consumption, with emotional consumption demonstrating resilience [7] - The consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its essential and domestic demand attributes, showing significant profitability resilience across economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68.55% of the index [8] - The restaurant supply chain is expected to see improvements in inventory and sales, driven by the strong performance of downstream dining consumption, which is likely to enhance the profitability of leading companies in the sector [6][7]

（天津市工业和信息化局） 据天津市工业和信息化局官网，2月25日，天津市工业和信息化局公布了天津市第一批"零碳"工厂名 单，包括天津伊利乳业有限责任公司、联想创新科技（天津）有限公司、中海油能源发展装备技术有限 公司、天津华恒新材料股份有限公司等8家企业入选。 ...

导语：左手分红，右手融资，君乐宝的"马拉松"还能跑多远？ 30岁的君乐宝，开始冲刺港股IPO。 近日，君乐宝乳业集团股份有限公司（简称"君乐宝"）正式向香港联合交易所递交主板上市申请，中金公司与摩根士丹利担任联席保荐人。 作为当前的"综合性乳制品公司第三"，君乐宝在过去虽然历经波折，但还是长成了"常青树"。 2008年"三聚氰胺"事件时，君乐宝被一同裹挟进风暴中，却能在三鹿集团轰然倒塌后独善其身，走出低谷。 后来托身蒙牛，九年时光一晃而过，君乐宝虽然得到了蒙牛的资金和渠道支持，但盈利情况却始终无法与蒙牛集团整体看齐。 62岁的魏立华仍然踌躇满志，30岁的君乐宝是否还跑得动？ 一、宰相合肥天下瘦 魏立华对马拉松精神的阐释是"敢想、敢干、坚持"。 他曾经说过："卖牛奶从6箱起步，马拉松从300米开跑！第一天可能只有300米，第二天就能跑500米，半年就可以挑战全马"。 这股进取精神，确实帮助君乐宝在乳业寒冬里实现了逆势增长。 招股书显示，2023年、2024年以及2025年前三季度，君乐宝的营收分别为175.46亿元、198.32亿元、151.34亿元，稳步上升。 直到2019年，蒙牛出售君乐宝51%的股权，后者 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the consumer staples sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Moutai, Wuliangye, and others [1]. Core Insights - Premium baijiu wholesale prices have rebounded month-on-month, while discounts on liquid milk and condiments have narrowed [1][11]. - The report highlights the resilience of consumer stocks amidst a volatile market, emphasizing their value [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1700 and 1650 yuan respectively, with month-on-month increases of +100 and +70 yuan. Year-to-date changes are +100 and +60 yuan, but year-on-year changes are -530 and -560 yuan [10][40]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price remains stable at 830 yuan, with a year-to-date increase of +10 yuan and a year-on-year decrease of -105 yuan [4][40]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price is 870 yuan, up by +20 yuan month-on-month and +20 yuan year-to-date, with a year-on-year increase of +10 yuan [4][40]. - Other notable prices include Shanxi Fenjiu and various products from Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu, showing mixed trends in pricing [10][40]. Discounts on Consumer Products - Discounts on liquid milk products have decreased from an average of 62.8% to 61.4% and from 63.4% to 61.7% for median values [19][37]. - Discounts on condiments have also narrowed from 87.1% to 85.0% (average) and from 88.2% to 84.9% (median) [19][37]. - Conversely, discounts on convenience foods have slightly increased, with average discounts moving from 94.8% to 94.6% [20][37]. - Beer, soft drinks, and infant formula discounts have remained stable, with slight variations in average and median rates [21][38].