1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Asia is the core recipient region for global LPG exports, with supply mainly from the Middle East and the United States, and imports concentrated in a few key Asian countries/regions. The global LPG exports to Asia feature high concentration at the export - end, a trend towards Asia - bound flow, and a situation where the import - end is dominated by a few countries with distinct demand attributes [2][7][9]. - In 2026, the incremental supply of Asian propane is relatively clear, but the time and rhythm of capacity realization need attention. The demand shows significant regional marginal differentiation. The annual supply - demand pattern of Asian propane is expected to evolve from tight in the first half to loose in the second half [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Asian Propane Trade Flows - Global LPG supply to Asia is mainly from the Middle East and the United States. As of 2025, the Middle East's propane export to Asia exceeded 25 million tons/year, with the UAE, Iran, and Qatar being major exporters. The US exports over 30 million tons of propane to Asia annually, affecting the regional price and supply - demand balance. Other regions like Canada, Australia, and West Africa play a supplementary role [7]. - Asian propane imports are concentrated in China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. China's imports account for nearly 40%, with a "chemical - dominated" demand structure. India accounts for about 20%, with demand mainly for residential combustion. Japan focuses on combustion - related demand, South Korea on chemical device operations, and Southeast Asia has seen incremental demand due to large - scale chemical device investments [9]. 3.2 Supply: Incremental Supply is Relatively Clear, Focus on Actual Capacity Release 3.2.1 Middle East: Monitor OPEC+ Production Policy and New Capacity Release - In 2025, Middle Eastern LPG exports reached 47.66 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of about 4.0%. The UAE, Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait are major exporters. Over 95% of Middle Eastern LPG is shipped to Asia, with 45% going to India and 38% to China [10][14]. - In 2026, new LPG capacity projects are concentrated in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Iran. In the first half, the focus is on whether UAE projects can be realized, with an expected monthly incremental supply of about 0.5 VLGCs if successful. In the second half, the key lies in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. If projects like Jafurah, Tanajib, and North Field East are launched as planned, it will significantly increase the Middle East's LPG export capacity, with a potential monthly incremental supply of 2 - 4 VLGCs [17]. - Iran's LPG exports are expected to remain flat in 2026, as the country can meet the demand of new PDH plants by increasing domestic production [18]. 3.2.2 United States: Moderate Production Growth and Significantly Improved Export Capacity - From January to November 2025, US LPG exports were 62.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. China's imports from the US decreased, while India and Southeast Asia increased their purchases. European imports also rose [19]. - In 2026, the US propane export capacity is expected to support an additional monthly supply of about 3 - 4 VLGCs. However, US propane production growth is expected to slow down, with an expected annual increase of about 750,000 tons and a year - on - year growth rate dropping to about 1%. But due to high inventory levels, production will not significantly limit exports in the short term [23][24]. 3.3 Demand: Regional Marginal Factors Differ, and Pay Attention to the Realization Rhythm of Chemical - End Impact in 2026 3.3.1 China: Dominated by Chemical Use, PDH Determines Marginal Changes - In 2025, China's propane imports were about 25 - 26 million tons. The demand is mainly for chemical use, with PDH accounting for about 81%, cracking for about 15%, and combustion for about 4% [28]. - By the end of 2025, China's PDH total capacity was close to 25 million tons/year, with a new - capacity growth rate of 11%. In 2026, the new - capacity growth rate will slow down to 5%. PDH device profits are expected to recover, and the average operating rate is expected to rise, driving an annual propane demand increase of about 1.5 - 2 million tons [31][37]. - In 2025, the demand for propane in domestic cracking devices decreased. In 2026, this weak demand is expected to continue [38][40]. - China's propane combustion demand is mainly in South China, with a small scale and limited impact on overall imports [42]. 3.3.2 Japan: Dominated by Combustion Use, Import Demand Shows Seasonal Fluctuations - In 2025, Japan's propane imports were about 8.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.4%. The demand is mainly for combustion, and the import volume has seasonal characteristics. In 2026, Japan's import dependence will remain high, and the import volume is expected to remain stable at a high level [45][48]. 3.3.3 South Korea: Dominated by Chemical Use, Cracking Determines Import Rhythm - In 2025, South Korea's domestic propane production was about 550,000 tons, and imports were about 6.4 million tons. Propane demand is mainly for chemical and industrial use. In 2026, South Korea's propane import demand is mainly restricted by the operation of chemical devices [50][53][55]. 3.3.4 India and Southeast Asia - In 2025, India's propane imports increased by about 8% year - on - year. In 2026, the growth of combustion demand will slow down, and chemical demand will increase due to new PDH and ethylene cracking devices [56]. - In 2025, Southeast Asia's propane demand increased due to the commissioning of new cracking devices. In 2026, the propane chemical demand in Vietnam's Long Son device may decrease, but the time is uncertain [56]. 3.4 2026 Asian Propane Balance Sheet - In 2026, the supply - demand pattern of Asian propane will evolve from tight in the first half to loose in the second half. In the first quarter, the supply is still tight but shows marginal improvement. The demand is supported by combustion in Japan, South Korea, and India, while the chemical - end demand is under pressure. In the second quarter, the market is in a transition phase. In the second half of the year, the supply will increase as new capacity is released, and the demand growth will slow down, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern [58].

石油输出国组织及其盟友（OPEC+）1月4日决定，维持当前原油产量政策不变。这一决议由沙特阿拉 伯、俄罗斯等八个主要产油国在当天的线上会议中确认，意味着2026年2月和3月的原油产量将与2025年 12月及2026年1月的水平保持一致。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 此次会议召开之际，OPEC+内部正面临多重地缘政治挑战。就在会议前一天，美国宣布其军事行动抓 获了成员国委内瑞拉的总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗。 根据会后声明，此次产量决定是出于季节性因素的考量，旨在维护石油市场稳定。声明还表示，相关国 家将根据市场情况灵活调整后续增产节奏。上述八个成员国——沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、阿拉伯联合酋长 国、伊拉克、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼——的原油总产量约占全球的一半。 在2025年4月至12月期间，这些国家已将原油产量目标累计上调了约每日290万桶。去年11月，它们已达 成协议，在2026年第一季度暂停进一步的增产步伐。本次会议再次确认了这一安排。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is currently being pulled by intermittent geopolitical risks and a weak supply - demand structure. In the short term, geopolitical risks may dominate, and it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend after the holiday. However, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term logic that suppresses oil prices, and the concern of global supply surplus still exists [5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price and basis**: As of the week ending December 31, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 57.72 US dollars per barrel (equivalent to 405.7 RMB per barrel), with a week - on - week decrease of 3.2 US dollars per barrel. The main contract of domestic crude oil futures, 2602, closed at 432.2 RMB per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.5 RMB per barrel. The basis was 26.5 RMB per barrel, and the degree of contango decreased slightly [8]. - **Geopolitical risks and price trends**: In the last week before the holiday, as geopolitical risks were gradually digested by the market, the crude oil premium began to be reversed. The weak supply - demand expectation in the oil market dominated, causing the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures to show a volatile downward trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2602 contract was weak, with a cumulative decline of 2.17% to 432.2 RMB per barrel during the week [11]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Remain in an Excess Expectation, and the Production Increase Rhythm Slows Down - **OPEC+ production increase**: Since the second quarter of 2025, eight major OPEC+ oil - producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have launched a phased production increase policy. From April to September, the cumulative production increase exceeded 2.1 million barrels per day. In the fourth quarter, the production increase continued. In November, it was decided to continue the production increase plan in December. However, to cope with the possible seasonal off - peak demand in the first quarter of 2026, production increase will be suspended from January 2026 for three months. In November 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 1.711 million barrels per day [22][23][24]. - **Non - OPEC oil - producing countries**: Non - OPEC+ countries' capacity expansion has further aggravated the supply surplus. As of the week ending December 26, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 409, with a week - on - week increase of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 74. The daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.827 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.254 million barrels per day [42]. - **Northern Hemisphere demand**: The United States, the world's largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. From December to February is the peak season for heating oil consumption. Entering December, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere will enter the peak season, and the inventory will change from accumulation to depletion. However, the EIA and IEA have both lowered their oil price forecasts and increased their forecasts for oil supply growth, while lowering their forecasts for demand growth [44][45][46]. - **US inventory and refinery operation rate**: As of the week ending December 26, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.934 million barrels week - on - week to 422.9 million barrels, and the refinery operation rate was 94.7%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points [48]. - **China's crude oil imports**: In November 2025, China's crude oil imports were 50.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.88%. The daily average import volume reached 12.38 million barrels, the highest level since August 2023. In 2026, China's crude oil production is expected to increase by 1.2% - 1.5%, demand is expected to reach 758 million tons, and imports are expected to reach 530 million tons [57][58]. 3.3 South American Geopolitical Turmoil Continues to Escalate, and Crude Oil Premium Increases - **Short - term impact**: In December 2025, the South American geopolitical situation heated up. The US military's actions against Venezuela triggered market concerns, leading to a short - term increase in the risk premium of international crude oil futures prices. However, this increase was mainly due to market sentiment rather than a substantial supply interruption [65]. - **Long - term impact**: In the long - term, the actual supply capacity of Venezuela is limited, and the global crude oil market is facing a structural supply - demand imbalance. The South American geopolitical risk is difficult to reverse the overall weak pattern of oil prices. After the initial sharp fluctuations, oil prices are expected to return to being dominated by fundamentals [66][67][69]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Increased Significantly Week - on - Week - As of December 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 54,896 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 3,537 contracts and a significant decrease of 9,975 contracts from the November average. As of December 23, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 99,095 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 58,107 contracts and a significant decrease of 56,093 contracts from the November average [71]. 3.5 Conclusion - During the New Year's Day holiday, the US military's actions in Venezuela and the threat from President Trump may lead to an increase in oil prices after the holiday. However, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term factor suppressing oil prices. In the short term, domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and strong trend [76].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 地缘局势再度升温，风险溢价或驱动油价反弹 主要周度数据变动回顾 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:地缘局势再度升温，风险溢价或驱动油价反弹 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,616万桶/日，较2024年上升 299万桶/日。(2)OPEC:11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2848万桶/日，较10月份下降0.1万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1458.5万桶/日，较10月 | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | | | | | 份上升4.5万桶/日。（3）IEA：11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2899万桶/日， ...

石油输出国组织及其盟友（OPEC+）代表称，尽管核心成员国沙特阿拉伯与阿联酋之间存在政治分 歧，且美国抓获了产油规模较小的成员国委内瑞拉的总统，该组织仍可能在周日的会议上维持原油产量 稳定。 此次会议由OPEC+的8个成员国出席，这8国的原油产量约占全球总产量的一半。会议召开前夕，受市 场供应过剩担忧加剧的影响，2025年国际油价累计跌幅超18%，创下2020年以来的最大年度跌幅。 这8个成员国分别为沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、阿联酋、哈萨克斯坦、科威特、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚和阿 曼。2025年4月至12月期间，它们将原油产量目标上调了约290万桶 / 日，增幅接近全球原油需求量的 3%。 去年11月，上述成员国已达成一致，决定在2026年1-3月暂停提升产量。三名OPEC+消息人士于周日透 露，本次会议预计不会调整这一政策。 上月，因也门长达十年的冲突出现新动向 —— 一个与阿联酋结盟的武装组织夺取了沙特支持的也门政 府控制的部分领土，沙特与阿联酋之间的紧张关系骤然升级。 多年来，两国在诸多关键议题上的分歧不断加剧，此次也门局势的变化成为导火索，致使这对昔日亲密 盟友陷入数十年来最严重的分裂。 历史上，石油输出国组织 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC and eight major oil-producing countries have decided to maintain their production plan set in November 2025 and will continue to pause production increases in February and March 2026 to stabilize the oil market [1][2] Group 1: Production Decisions - The eight countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, held an online meeting to discuss the international oil market situation and outlook [1] - Due to seasonal factors, these countries will keep production levels the same as in December 2025 and January 2026 [1] - The eight countries announced voluntary production cuts of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day in April 2023 and an additional 2.2 million barrels per day in November 2023, with these measures being extended multiple times [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the production cuts, countries like the United States and Canada have increased their oil production, resulting in OPEC losing some market share [1] - In March 2025, the eight countries decided to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, with specific increases in daily production noted for May through December 2025 [1]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货原油周报 供需偏弱 地缘扰动 20251228 黄桂仁 0769-22112875 从业资格号：F3032275 交易咨询号：Z0014527 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 供应：欧佩克12月报显示，11月份OPEC+原油总产量4306.5万桶/日，较年初增加242万桶/日。其中欧佩克原油产量2848.0万桶/日， 较年初增加176.5万桶/日。沙特原油产量1005.3万桶/日，环比增加5.3万桶/日。欧佩克会议决定，由于季节性因素，2026年前三 个月将暂停增产计划。美国原油产量突破1380万桶/日，产量维持高位。 需求：IEA月报将2025年全球石油需求增长预测从71万桶/日上调至78.8万桶/日，预计第四季度石油需求增长将放缓，将2026年全 球石油需求增长预测从69.9万桶/日上调至77万桶/日。预计2026年全球石油供应总量将比需求量高出409万桶/日（先前报告 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals continue to reach new highs, while the new energy sector remains strong. The U.S. GDP growth in Q3 exceeded expectations at 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years, while consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months [1][2]. Group 1: Precious Metals - International gold has surpassed $4500, and silver has reached a historical high. The U.S. November CPI increased by 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating a downward trend that may provide room for interest rate cuts. The labor market shows mixed signals with 64,000 new jobs added, better than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [2][20]. - The long-term upward trend for precious metals remains intact due to factors such as weakened dollar credibility and central bank gold purchases [2][20]. Group 2: Oil - Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached a two-and-a-half-year high of 7.1 million barrels in October, up from 6.46 million barrels in September. The overall downward trend in oil prices is expected to continue [3][14]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate contracts continue to hit new highs, with strong terminal demand. In November 2025, domestic power battery installations increased by 39.2%. Despite several new projects expected to increase supply, short-term supply pressure is relatively eased. Weekly lithium carbonate production rose by 47 tons to 22,045 tons [4][24]. - The weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 110,425 tons, with downstream inventory dropping by 1,253 tons. The pace of inventory reduction has slowed, but strong demand expectations may sustain strong replenishment intentions in the downstream [4][24]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. third-quarter GDP growth of 4.3% significantly exceeded market expectations, while the November industrial output and consumption growth were below previous values, indicating ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector [13]. - The central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting infrastructure construction is expected to support economic recovery [13].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating | Variety | Rating (Possibility) | | --- | --- | | Stock Index (IH) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IF) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IC) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IM) | Bullish | | Treasury Bond (TS) | Bullish | | Crude Oil | Bearish | | Methanol | Bearish | | Rubber | Bullish | | Rebar | Bullish | | Hot Rolled Coil | Bullish | | Iron Ore | Bullish | | Gold | Bullish | | Silver | Bullish | | Copper | Bullish | | Aluminum | Bullish | | Lithium Carbonate | Bullish | | Cotton | Bullish | | Apple | Bearish | | Corn | Bullish | | Container Shipping to Europe | Bearish | [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged due to factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases. The overall downward trend of crude oil is hard to change. The short - term outlook for oils and fats is expected to be range - bound. The A - share market is expected to form a long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern. The market anticipates the introduction of loose policies at the beginning of 2026, which has a certain supporting effect on the prices of short - term Treasury bond futures. [2][3][11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 (Main News Concerns of the Day) - **International News**: Japan will impose a new tax on electric vehicles in May 2028 to make up for the fuel tax gap caused by the popularization of electric vehicles. [6] - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce has announced temporary counter - subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the EU starting from December 23, 2025. [7] - **Industry News**: The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to adhere to the "dual - carbon" guidance, and the new energy industry in China is expected to have significant development opportunities. [8] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 (Daily Returns of Overseas Markets) - The S&P 500 rose 0.64% from December 19th to December 22nd. The FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.85%. ICE Brent crude oil continuous rose 2.48%. London gold spot increased by 2.82%, and London silver rose by 3.12%. [10] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 (Morning Comments on Major Varieties) - **Financial**: The long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated. The market's expectation of the introduction of loose policies at the beginning of 2026 has a certain supporting effect on the prices of short - term Treasury bond futures. [11][12] - **Energy and Chemical**: The overall downward trend of crude oil is hard to change. Methanol is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Rubber prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. The short - term outlook for polyolefins is not overly pessimistic. Glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. [14][15][16][17][18] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged. Copper prices are affected by factors such as concentrate supply and downstream demand. Zinc prices are affected by factors such as concentrate processing fees and downstream demand. The short - term outlook for aluminum is to pay attention to the guidance of silver and copper, and the long - term outlook is optimistic. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise overall. [19][20][21][22][23] - **Black Metals**: The double - coking market is expected to stabilize gradually. The short - term steel prices still have the impetus to rebound, but with limited upside. Iron ore prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. [24][25][26] - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal prices are expected to continue to oscillate within a range. Oils and fats are expected to be range - bound in the short term. Sugar prices are expected to be range - bound, and there are signs of stabilization. Cotton prices are supported by multiple positive factors. [27][28][29][30] - **Shipping Index**: The price of container shipping to Europe may reach an inflection point, and the 02 contract is not recommended to be overly optimistic. [31]

（来源：矿权资源网） 来源：矿权资源网 2025 年国际油价走势呈现出鲜明的阶段性特征，上半年价格宽幅震荡、波动加剧，下半年则开启单边 下行通道。从价格表现来看，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格由年初的每桶约 81 美元回落至近期的 61 美元左 右，美国西得克萨斯原油期货价格亦同步走低。从市场基本面分析，短期内原油供需格局未发生实质性 转变，供过于求的态势依旧难以扭转。不过需要关注的是，三大核心因素仍将主导 2026 年国际油市走 向，叠加日趋复杂的地缘政治博弈，市场后续走势的不确定性持续攀升。 与此同时，美国对俄罗斯实施的制裁措施所产生的间接影响，进一步加剧了全球石油供应结构的失衡。 最新生效的对俄制裁措施，直接指向俄罗斯国家石油公司和卢克石油公司 -- 这两家企业的原油产量合 计占俄罗斯全国原油总产量的 50%。但俄罗斯通过启用 "影子舰队" 运输原油、推动出口目的地向东转 移等方式规避制裁，目前其对亚洲地区的原油出口占比已提升至 85%，短期内原油出口未受到显著冲 击。但从长期来看，制裁对俄罗斯国内经济的打击将逐步显现，有机构预测，明年俄罗斯石油产量增速 可能降至日均 5 万桶以下。不过这一产量缺口，将被美国、 ...