Group 1 - During the Spring Festival, several quality real estate companies in Shenzhen launched promotional activities to attract consumers, including special gifts for those staying in the city or visiting [1] - In 2025, over 10,000 new residential units are expected to be purchased by non-Shenzhen residents, with sales amounting to nearly 60 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in Shenzhen as a place to live and work [2] - The "iShenzhen" platform will provide personalized online viewing services during the Spring Festival, allowing potential buyers to filter properties based on their preferences and access virtual tours [4] Group 2 - Real estate projects such as Jindi Huanwan City and China Overseas Deyun Jiu Chapter will offer special discounts and gifts during the Spring Festival to enhance the buying experience [3] - More than 30 real estate projects in Shenzhen will remain open during the Spring Festival, utilizing both online and offline marketing strategies to serve buyers [3] - Real estate agencies like Le You Jia will also provide various promotional activities for second-hand housing during the holiday period [3]

www.ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 2026 年 2 月 联络人 作者 企业评级部 蒋 螣 027-87339288 tjiang@ccxi.com.cn 刘旭冉 027-87339288 xrliu@ccxi.com.cn 黎小琳 027-87339288 xlli@ccxi.com.cn | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 摘要 | 1 | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 样本企业表现 | 8 | | 结论 | 12 | | 附表 | 13 | 贺文俊 027-87339288 wjhe@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业展望 房地产行业 中国房地产行业展望，2026 年 2 月 2025 年房地产行业政策力度同比减弱，但全年销售规模降幅收窄， 去库存亦取得一定进展，在商品房销售额尚未完全企稳的背景下， 供求平衡的修复仍面临挑战；2026 年预计行业销售及投资下行压力 仍存但节奏放缓，政策端或将进入常态化实施阶段，待售面积有望 出现拐点性下降，为"十五五"房地产市场触底企稳打下基础，预 计未来短期内头部房企的市场地位稳固，但行业颈部及腰部企业的 排序或 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank has increased the net injection of reverse repos in February by 300 billion yuan, leading to improved liquidity in the banking system [3] - The central bank will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on February 13, with a term of 6 months, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [3] - The major bond market indices have shown a downward trend in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 1.40 basis points to 1.7720% [10] Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rates - The onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar both broke the 6.9 mark, reaching a new high before the Spring Festival, with the central bank's midpoint rate set at 6.9457 yuan per dollar [4] - Analysts attribute the RMB's strength to multiple factors, including improved external conditions, a weaker dollar, and increased demand for currency conversion by enterprises [4] Group 3: Corporate News and Credit Events - Kaisa Group announced it would be unable to repay the principal of 400 million USD on its KWGPRO bond due on February 13, 2026 [14] - Moody's confirmed Meituan's issuer rating at "Baa1," changing the outlook from "stable" to "negative" [14] - Jin Hong Holdings reported a debt default of 76 million yuan by its subsidiary [14] Group 4: Real Estate and Housing Market - In the US, January existing home sales saw the largest decline in nearly four years, dropping 8.4% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 3.91 million units, below expectations [5] - The median home price in January increased by 0.9% year-over-year to 396,800 USD, while inventory rose by 3.4% to 1.22 million units [5] Group 5: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.77% to 62.84 USD per barrel, and Brent crude down 2.71% to 67.52 USD per barrel [6] - COMEX gold futures decreased by 3.06% to 1,942.50 USD per ounce, while NYMEX natural gas prices fell by 0.25% to 3.226 USD per million British thermal units [6] Group 6: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed a warming trend, with the central bank's liquidity support leading to a decrease in yields across various maturities [10] - No new government or policy bank bonds were issued on February 12 [12] - The credit bond market experienced significant price fluctuations, with some bonds deviating over 10% from their previous prices [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry based on expected performance relative to the market benchmark [5]. Core Insights - Recent valuation recovery in real estate stocks reflects a combination of oversold conditions relative to the CSI 300 index, changes in fundamental expectations, and policy anticipations [1][3]. - The upward potential for real estate stock prices requires further support from either fundamental performance or policy implementation, with key drivers including better-than-expected transaction volumes and significant policy announcements [12][14]. - The market is currently divided between investors with optimistic views on fundamentals and those speculating on policy changes, which may lead to conflicting strategies [10]. Summary by Sections Recent Valuation Recovery - The recent increase in real estate stock prices is attributed to a recovery from oversold conditions and shifts in market sentiment regarding fundamentals and policies [1]. - Data from January 1 to February 5 shows a year-on-year decline in new home transactions by 6% and an increase in second-hand home transactions by 31%, although adjusted lunar year comparisons indicate a more significant decline [3]. Conditions for Further Price Increases - The gap between the real estate index and the CSI 300 has narrowed significantly, suggesting that without further catalysts, the potential for excess returns in the real estate sector may diminish [12]. - Future price increases will depend on exceeding expectations in fundamental performance, such as increased transaction volumes and favorable policy developments [14]. Policy Directions and Drivers - Key areas of policy focus include changes in inventory levels, loan continuation methods post "Financial 16," and the outcomes of specific corporate financing events [15]. - Potential policy measures may involve lowering mortgage rates and implementing inventory reduction strategies to stabilize housing prices [16][18]. Market Dynamics and Stock Selection - The current market trend favors companies with higher sales growth and land acquisition rates, indicating a preference for "winning" companies based on market momentum [22]. - If supportive policies are enacted, the focus may shift from "winning" companies to those with attractive valuations, while also considering companies with strong operational momentum [24]. - Specific companies to watch include those with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as those benefiting from improvements in the housing market [25].

据悉，博语华庭首开的2幢高层已经在去年12月率先解禁，共173套房源。而剩下的6幢楼因为在限售政 策调整后才开盘，按规定需在取得产证后限售五年，实际进入二手市场还得再等上两三年。 "博语华庭首套成交已诞生，房东账面盈利112万！"前不久，萧山区首个热点限售红盘——博语华庭传 出消息，小区解禁后有一套98平方米的房源以400万元的总价成交，折合单价约40800元/平方米，对比 当初34000元/平方米的新房限价，涨幅达20％。 博语华庭作为2020年杭州的顶流红盘，开盘之初就自带光环，如今传闻一出，更是引发了市场巨大关 注。可惜现实并非想象中美好，本周二记者前往小区实地探访，发现这个成交传闻并不属实，目前整个 小区还没有成交案例。 "万人摇"红盘挂牌量不大 房东心理预期普遍较高 杭州的限售政策始于2020年7月，起初只针对高层次人才优先购房的房源，规定自房屋网签日起限售5 年。同年9月政策加码，将热点楼盘纳入限售范围。 到2021年1月27日，限售覆盖面再度扩大。只要摇号中签率≤10%的房源都将面临五年限售，并且限售起 算时间从"自买卖合同网签备案之日起5年内不得上市交易"调整为"自取得不动产证之日起5年内不得 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Commercial Aerospace - Shanghai Port Bay's perovskite technology in collaboration with Dongfang Risen is expected to benefit from the SpaceX supply chain. The increase in satellite launches will boost the demand for solar wings, positively impacting related companies [1][3]. Refractory Materials - Companies like Zhongsen Technology, Luyang Energy, and Zhonggang Nairuo are performing well through business extensions and are considered important targets for investment as the sector begins to rally [1][3]. AI+ Sector - Companies such as China National Materials, Honghe Technology, Feilihua, and China Jushi are benefiting from LDK demand, leading to significant profit increases. Attention is drawn to upstream raw materials like high-end electronic fabrics [1][3]. Construction and Building Materials - New business models in the construction and building materials industry focus on increasing market share and revenue scale, with a clear supply clearing and gradual industry improvement. Sanjias Tree's beautiful countryside business and community stores are rapidly developing, while Yuhong enhances competitiveness through service model innovation [1][4]. Real Estate Market Insights Recent Data and Trends - Recent data indicates a positive trend in the real estate market, particularly in first and second-tier cities where second-hand housing transaction volume has increased year-on-year, and price indices have turned positive. The listing volume has decreased, with demand driven by school district housing improving transaction structure. The new housing market is expected to rebound post-holiday due to supply constraints [1][5]. Investment Strategy - The current rally in real estate stocks is characterized by a mix of speculative and long-term capital, suggesting a more sustainable upward trend. The second quarter may present an opportunity to increase real estate positions, with recommended stocks including China Merchants Shekou, New City Holdings, Jindi Group, and Wo Ai Wo Jia [1][6][8]. Transportation and Logistics Sector Investment Themes - The transportation and logistics sector has four main investment themes: 1. Domestic express logistics is entering a critical consolidation phase, with a focus on leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [2][9]. 2. Cross-border e-commerce and the Belt and Road Initiative, with key companies including SF Holding and JD Logistics [2][9]. 3. Platform transportation through internet platforms like Didi and Cao Cao Mobility, which are expected to enhance profits with the realization of autonomous driving and new energy vehicle replacements [2][10]. 4. Large cycle sectors, including aviation and shipping, are anticipated to see profit growth due to tight supply and recovering demand. Companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping are recommended, with significant profit elasticity expected from VLCC operations [2][10]. Additional Considerations - The real estate market's upward speed is not expected to be as rapid as in previous cycles, with a potential long-term upward trend following policy implementation. The core cities' housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, with real estate stocks likely leading the fundamental bottom by 2 to 3 quarters [1][8]. - Long-term capital movements should be closely monitored to adjust investment strategies accordingly [1][7].

Core Viewpoint - The overall financial environment is tightening, with rising repo rates and fluctuations in bond markets, while the central bank emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize prices [2][8]. Domestic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, while ensuring sufficient liquidity in the banking system [2]. - In 2025, China's total social logistics reached 368.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, indicating stable logistics demand and strong support for the real economy [3]. International News - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in December, with a month-on-month change of 0%, raising concerns about consumer spending, which is a key driver of U.S. economic growth [4]. - The New York Fed reported a significant rise in consumer debt delinquency rates, reaching 4.8%, the highest level in nearly a decade, with total household debt hitting a record high of $18.78 trillion [5]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed strong fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below 1.80%, supported by institutional demand [9]. - On February 10, the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.50 basis points to 1.7950%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 0.10 basis points to 1.9220% [10]. Credit Bonds - In the secondary market, several industrial bonds experienced significant price deviations, with some bonds dropping over 50% [11]. - Dragon Food's credit rating was downgraded from "A-" to "BBB" by a credit rating agency, maintaining a negative outlook [12]. Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices dropping around 0.23% to 0.24%, and trading volume decreasing by 101.62 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [22]. - Upcoming listings include Longjian Convertible Bonds, and several companies announced early redemption conditions for their convertible bonds [24].

机构认为，短期市场或仍维持板块轮动、震荡上行走势。 【财经日历】 中国1月CPI、PPI 中芯国际举行2025年第四季度业绩说明会 财报发布：网易 ►►央行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告： 海南首批5家日用消费品免税店正式开业 美国1月失业率、1月季调后非农就业人口 欧佩克公布月度原油市场报告 EIA公布月度短期能源展望报告 -继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策； -加强利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行； -完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构建房地产发展新模式； -持续改革完善贷款市场报价利率（LPR）； -支持更多民营科技型企业、民营股权投资机构发债融资； -把握好利率、汇率内外均衡，引导短期货币市场利率更好围绕央行政策利率平稳运行； -引导更多金融资源支持提振和扩大服务消费； -进一步优化MPA框架，畅通货币政策执行和传导； -促进资本市场平稳运行； -未来将常态化开展国债买卖操作； ►►国家发展改革委等部门发布加快招标投标领域人工智能推广应用的实施意见。其中指出，围绕招标投标交易全过程和管理重点环节，按照政府引导、多 方参与、场景牵引、安全可控的原则，积极稳妥推进人工智能在招标投标领 ...

今日提示 ·中芯国际2月11日举行2025年第四季度业绩说明会。 ·国新办2月11日举行新闻发布会，介绍2026"乐购新春"等情况。 ·松延动力Bumi-X1智脑版联名机器人2月11日正式预售。 ·*ST立方自查工作完成，公司股票2月11日开市起复牌。 上证精选 ·央行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告，其中提出，继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促 进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情 况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕和 社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷均衡投放，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同 经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 ·2月10日，国家发展改革委等部门发布《关于加快招标投标领域人工智能推广应用的实施意见》，其中 提出，积极稳妥推进人工智能在招标投标领域的应用，改进招标投标范式，提升服务和监管的数智化水 平，为保障公共资源公平高效配置、规范招标投标市场秩序提供有力支撑。2026年底，招标文件检测、 智能辅助评标、围串标识别等重点场景在部分省市实现全覆盖应用。 ·2 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, the company experienced a significant decline in both signed area and sales amount compared to the previous year, indicating potential challenges in the current market environment [1]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The company achieved a signed area of 78,000 square meters in January 2026, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50.00% [1]. - The signed sales amount for the same period was 1.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 45.78% [1]. Group 2: New Project Acquisition - The company recently acquired a new project located at the Dalian Malan Brewery site, covering an area of 63,597.29 square meters with a floor area ratio of 1.56, allowing for a total construction area of 98,830 square meters [1]. - The project has a 40% equity interest and is designated for residential and commercial use, with a land use period of 70 years for residential and 40 years for commercial purposes [1]. - The total transaction price for the project was 736.66 million yuan [1].