Group 1 - Gold and copper prices have declined, with COMEX gold futures dropping below $4950 and COMEX copper prices falling to $5.82. The non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) decreased by 6.07%, with stocks like Silver Holdings and Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit down, while companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Copper, and Zhongfu Industrial also saw declines. However, the non-ferrous metal ETF fund has increased by 16.69% over the past month as of February 4, 2026 [1] - The Vice Secretary-General of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Duan Shaofu, announced the need to improve the copper resource reserve system during a press conference on the economic operation of the non-ferrous metals industry in 2025. Additionally, the U.S. has initiated a $12 billion critical mineral reserve plan ("Project Vault") to mitigate supply chain risks, which includes over 50 critical minerals identified by the U.S. Geological Survey, such as rare earths, lithium, and copper [1] - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), inventory replenishment is supporting copper prices, with strong demand for low-priced copper as downstream inventories are low. The upcoming spring peak season, combined with tight supply conditions and low TC/RC levels, is expected to further tighten copper supply and potentially increase copper prices [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund closely tracks the CSI segmented non-ferrous metal industry theme index. As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI segmented non-ferrous metal industry theme index (000811) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt, with these ten stocks accounting for 51.85% of the total weight [2] Group 3 - The following stocks in the non-ferrous metal ETF fund experienced declines: Zijin Mining (-6.21%, 15.30% weight), Luoyang Molybdenum (-7.98%, 7.92% weight), Northern Rare Earth (-5.48%, 5.30% weight), Huayou Cobalt (-3.71%, 4.69% weight), China Aluminum (-7.22%, 4.39% weight), Ganfeng Lithium (-6.14%, 3.23% weight), Shandong Gold (-6.44%, 3.18% weight), Yun Aluminum (-5.49%, 3.11% weight), Zhongjin Gold (-6.05%, 3.08% weight), and Tianqi Lithium (-6.46%, 2.60% weight) [3]

Group 1 - The rare metal ETF (561800) has seen a recent decline, with the China Rare Metals Theme Index (930632) dropping by 4.20% as of February 5, 2026, while the ETF has experienced a 13.04% increase over the past month [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index account for 59.71% of the index, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium among the leaders [1] - The rare metal ETF has recorded a net inflow of 111.43 million yuan as of February 4, 2026, with a total of 16.18 million yuan attracted over the last ten trading days [1] Group 2 - Lithium concentrate prices have reached multi-year highs, with Pilbara Minerals reporting an average price of $1,161 per ton for Q4 2025, reflecting a 56% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 66% year-over-year increase [2] - The demand for lithium is improving due to a recovery in market conditions, reduced expectations for idle capacity, and increased purchasing willingness from downstream customers [2] - The CS Rare Metal Index tracked by the rare metal ETF primarily allocates to lithium carbonate, minor metals, and rare earths, with lithium carbonate comprising 30%-40% of the index, making it a key investment tool for market participants [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call discusses the impact of Indonesia's resource nationalism on coal, metals, and agriculture sectors, particularly focusing on aluminum, nickel, coal, and palm oil [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Resource Nationalism in Indonesia**: Indonesia is strengthening control over its resources through measures such as reducing export quotas and combating illegal mining to address economic pressures and enhance resource prices [1][2][4]. - **Coal Supply Impact**: Indonesia's reduction of coal export quotas is expected to significantly affect global coal supply, especially for China, potentially leading to tighter domestic supply and price fluctuations between 800 to 1,000 RMB [1][8][6]. - **Palm Oil Market Dynamics**: The acceleration of state control over the palm oil industry, combined with environmental sanctions and U.S. biofuel policies, is anticipated to drive a bull market in palm oil, with prices gradually increasing [1][10][11]. - **Nickel Price and Supply Adjustments**: A decline in nickel prices has led to losses in nickel smelting capacity, prompting the government to reduce nickel ore quotas by approximately 40% in 2026, which may reverse supply-demand dynamics and support price increases [1][13][14]. - **Tin Market Conditions**: The tin market is experiencing a supply-demand tightness, with significant contributions from China and Indonesia, and instability in regions like Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo affecting prices [1][18][20]. Additional Important Content - **Government Policies**: Indonesia's government has implemented policies to combat illegal mining and reduce resource quotas, transitioning from multi-year to annual quota agreements, indicating a strong shift towards resource nationalism [4][5]. - **Investor Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with high spot ratios that can benefit from price increases, such as Liu'an Huanneng and Jin Kong Coal, which are seen as having significant upside potential [9][17]. - **Long-term Nickel Supply Concerns**: The long-term outlook for high-grade nickel resources is challenging, with expectations of depletion by 2035, necessitating solutions to address the shortage [16]. - **Tin Demand Resilience**: Despite potential price increases, the demand for tin, primarily in the electronics sector, is expected to remain stable, indicating a positive outlook for price growth [21][22]. Company-Specific Insights - **Zanyu Technology**: The company has a competitive advantage due to its refinery in Indonesia, allowing it to produce refined products without export taxes, thus benefiting from rising palm oil prices [12]. - **Tin Industry Leaders**: Recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous, both of which are positioned well in the current market environment and are expected to provide significant investment value [22][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resilience of the non-ferrous metal sector, as evidenced by the significant price increase of the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), which rose by 6.4% yesterday and an additional 0.26% today, with a net subscription of 15 million units on February 4 [1][11] - The ETF has accumulated a total of 1.3 billion yuan in net subscriptions over the past 20 days, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [1][11] - Key stocks within the ETF include Jinmoly Co., which led with a rise of over 4%, and other notable performers such as Xingye Silver Tin and Huayou Cobalt, which increased by over 3% [3][13] Group 2 - The current spot price of gold has returned to 5,000 USD, following a significant rebound of 6% on February 3, marking the largest single-day increase since 2009 [1][15] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which have heightened risk aversion among investors, and statements from Federal Reserve officials suggesting the need for more than 100 basis points in rate cuts this year [5][15] - Analysts from Tianfeng Securities predict that gold may enter a period of wide fluctuations but is expected to return to an upward trend within the year, supported by ongoing demand from global central banks [5][15] Group 3 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds comprehensively cover various sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the beta performance across different economic cycles [7][16] - The ETF serves as an efficient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the non-ferrous metal sector, being a financing and margin trading target [7][16] - Institutional perspectives suggest that the current "super cycle" in non-ferrous metals is expected to last for 3-5 years, driven by supply-demand mismatches, macroeconomic easing, and industrial upgrades [5][15]

Core Insights - The article highlights a paradox in the non-ferrous metals sector where despite a significant bull market, very few public funds have captured the top-performing stocks [1][2] - The analysis indicates that institutional investors are generally avoiding stocks with historical governance issues or high uncertainty, even if market expectations are strong [2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Holdings - Some non-ferrous metal stocks have seen remarkable price increases, with Zhaojin Gold rising over 540% and Xiaocheng Technology increasing over 362% since 2025 [2] - As of the end of 2025, Zhaojin Gold was held by only 15 funds, Xiaocheng Technology by 3 funds, and Hunan Silver by just 1 fund, indicating a lack of institutional interest in these high-performing stocks [2][4] Group 2: Institutional Investment Behavior - Public funds are constrained by strict compliance frameworks and risk management systems, leading to cautious investment decisions regarding companies with historical flaws or high operational uncertainty [3][4] - The preference for larger, more stable companies is evident, as only 17 non-ferrous stocks are held by over 100 funds, primarily those with market capitalizations exceeding 50 billion [4][5] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The current non-ferrous metal market is supported by a multi-dimensional logic, including global liquidity easing and anticipated continued monetary and fiscal stimulus [6][8] - Supply constraints and new demand from sectors like AI and energy transition are focal points for institutional investors, with copper, gold, and aluminum identified as key investment directions [8][9]

截至2026年2月3日，汇添富中证细分有色金属产业主题ETF发起式联接C(019165)自成立以来，最高单 月回报为20.81%，最长连涨月数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅63.79%，涨跌月数比为16/10，上涨月份平均收 益率为8.91%，年盈利百分比为100.00%，月盈利概率64.65%，历史持有2年盈利概率为100.00%。 截至2026年2月4日 15:00，中证细分有色金属产业主题指数(000811)上涨0.27%，成分股金钼股份 (601958)上涨4.28%，兴业银锡(000426)上涨3.79%，华友钴业(603799)上涨2.83%，神火股份(000933)上 涨2.81%，白银有色(601212)上涨2.62%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 截至2026年2月4日 15:00，有色ETF汇添富上涨0.57%，截至2026年2月3日，近1年以来累计上涨 118.67%。 截至2026年2月3日，有色ETF汇添富的场外联接产品汇添富中证细分有色金属产业主题ETF发起式联接 C(019165)单位净值为2.31元，当日上涨2.72%，近一月累计上涨14.90%。 2月4日，国际金价 ...

新能车ETF紧密跟踪中证新能源汽车产业指数，中证新能源汽车产业指数选取50只业务涉及新能源整 车、电机电控、锂电设备、电芯电池、电池材料等新能源汽车产业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映 新能源汽车产业龙头上市公司证券的整体表现。 截至2026年2月4日 14:15，中证新能源汽车产业指数(930997)上涨0.51%，成分股银轮股份上涨10.01%， 亿华通上涨9.47%，盟固利上涨5.91%，富临精工上涨5.87%，宁德时代上涨4.91%。新能车ETF(515700) 上涨0.57%，最新价报2.46元。 消息面上，1月新能源车销量亮眼，造车新势力阵营的零跑汽车、蔚来、理想汽车等主要车企实现销量 同比增长。华为鸿蒙智行成绩亮眼，1月交付量同比增长高达65.6%。 开源证券指出，在购置税减免退坡及梯度以旧换新补贴预计对主流价位段新能源车销量造成较大影响的 背景下，2026年重点看好高端化发展方向。尊界S800连续蝉联超豪华轿车市场冠军，重点推荐国产超 豪华领军车企江淮汽车。其次，问界、极氪9X等车型在高端车市场持续放量，也有望明显增强相关车 企的业绩，看好赛力斯、吉利汽车等后续发展。同时，海外市场将继续成为车 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to experience a significant growth wave in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological iterations, leading to a spiral growth pattern of "increased volume and price + technological leap" [3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - By 2025, global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2297 GWh, with a growth rate of 34.6% in 2026. The shipment growth rate for energy storage cells is anticipated to reach 70%, driven by both domestic and international demand [5]. - There is a notable supply gap in the effective production capacity of battery cells and various materials, making supply chain stability and efficiency crucial for capitalizing on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Application Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on two main topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, and B2B procurement matchmaking to connect top battery manufacturers and material suppliers [6]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The conference will feature specialized sessions on lithium carbonate futures, market volatility responses from lithium battery companies, and the potential of global lithium resources in 2026 [7][8]. - Notable participants include leading battery companies like CATL and BYD, as well as material suppliers covering the entire supply chain, including positive and negative materials, electrolytes, and separators [6].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Global lithium battery production is expected to reach 2297 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 34.6% in 2026. The shipment growth rate for energy storage cells is projected to be as high as 70%, driven by dual domestic and international demand [5]. - There exists a notable supply gap in battery cells and various materials, necessitating a focus on ensuring a stable and efficient supply chain to capitalize on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on two main topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, and B2B procurement matchmaking to connect top battery manufacturers and material suppliers [6]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The conference will feature specialized sessions on lithium carbonate futures, market volatility responses from lithium battery companies, and the potential of global lithium resources [7][8]. - Notable participants include leading battery companies like CATL and BYD, as well as material suppliers covering the entire supply chain, including cathode materials, anode materials, electrolytes, and separators [6]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Strategic Insights - The lithium battery industry is expected to play a crucial role in energy transition and carbon neutrality goals as it enters a new planning phase [6]. - The summit aims to provide authoritative data releases, benchmark company rankings, and deep industry connections to facilitate high-quality development in the lithium battery sector [6].

行 行业周报 资金情绪回落，多品种价格回调 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2026 年 2 月 4 日 钢铁 有色金属 证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 研究助理 重点品种推荐 洛阳钼业 增持 中金黄金 增持 华友钴业 增持 紫金矿业 增持 中国铝业 增持 近三月行业指数走势图 投资要点： 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁：后续随着春节前需求季节性走弱，钢材库存或进一步累积，需关注宏观 情绪对钢价影响。 铜：临近春节假期下游需求将减弱，资金情绪回落，短期铜价或调整后震荡运 行。 铝：资金情绪回落，春节前需求预计将走弱，短期铝价或迎来调整后震荡运 行。 黄金：我们认为金价回调后，后续地缘政治风险以及美国国内政治不确定性 （如政府停摆风险）仍有望为金价提供底部支撑，需警惕风险事件缓和对金 价的压力。另外，我们认为美国总统特朗普提名的新美联储主席未来偏鸽派 的可能性更大，后续美联储政策或超出市场预期，有望支撑金价。 锂：抢出口需求叠加供应偏紧预期，容量电价政策也有望改善需求预期，锂价 调整过后有望获得支撑。 稀土：春节前需求或走弱，但现货供 ...