Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: February 01, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to experience a high-level decline in the short term. This is due to the reduction of geopolitical conflict probability and weakening macro sentiment, as well as the approaching boundary of some valuation indicators and the increasing negative feedback expectation [3][4]. - The butadiene market has limited short-term drivers and is expected to decline in the short term but has support in the medium term. The overall domestic butadiene fundamentals are balanced [5]. Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - During the cycle, the high-cis butadiene rubber unit of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, and the load of individual butadiene rubber units in North China decreased slightly. The total capacity utilization rate only fluctuated slightly. The output of high-cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 30,700 tons, an increase of 104 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month-on-month increase of 0.34%. The capacity utilization rate was 76.38%, a month-on-month increase of 0.27 percentage points [4]. - There is no news of new unit restart or shutdown for maintenance in the next cycle, but the load of private butadiene rubber units still needs to be carefully observed [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, some semi-steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders during the cycle, and the unit production schedule increased slightly, which supported the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises. The shipment of all-steel tires was dull, and some enterprises still had production control, dragging the capacity utilization rate down slightly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will decline in the next cycle [4]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR-BR main contracts has turned from positive to negative, and it is expected that the substitution demand for synthetic rubber will gradually weaken [4]. Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.74%. The price of butadiene, the raw material, increased unexpectedly this cycle, significantly driving up the butadiene rubber market. The low-price negotiation center shifted significantly upward, but the buying follow-up was slow. At the same time, butadiene rubber production was still significantly in the red, and some private enterprises in North China reduced their loads to varying degrees. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased slightly overall [4]. Valuation - The current static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 12,500 - 13,200 yuan/ton. The speculation is relatively strong, and the upward valuation pressure is invalid. In terms of the downward valuation, the NR-BR spread has completely shrunk, and the spread's support for valuation has failed. The effective support level is the butadiene rubber cost line, and butadiene is expected to support the butadiene price from the cost side. The theoretical full cost of butadiene is estimated to be mainly based on the butadiene price * 1.02 + (auxiliary agents + labor) = 10,500 * 1.02 + 2,500 ≈ 13,200. In terms of the actual full cost, depending on the factory, the fixed cost ranges from 1,500 to 2,500 yuan/ton, so the minimum cost is about 12,500 yuan/ton (10,500 * 1.02 + 1,800) [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: After overbought, short at high levels according to the valuation; the upper pressure is 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton (supported by the NR-BR spread and butadiene cost) [4]. - Cross-variety: The NR-BR spread gradually enters a low-level shock, and it is recommended to pay attention to the position of expanding the spread in the future [4]. Butadiene Supply - In this cycle (20260123 - 0129), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 113,500 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month-on-month increase of 2.61%. During the week, the units of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Hainan Refining and Chemical remained shut down, and the units of Shanghai Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical restarted one after another. The output of Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical was relatively limited, and the weekly output increased month-on-month. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 116,500 tons, a slight increase compared to this cycle. The units of Hainan Refining and Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical may gradually resume production [5]. Demand - In terms of synthetic rubber, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber will remain high in the medium term, and the demand for butadiene will remain at a high level year-on-year. In the short term, as the maintenance of butadiene units decreases, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will remain at a high level [6]. - In terms of ABS, the inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with relatively limited incremental demand [6]. - In terms of SBS, the operating rate increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remained unchanged, with limited changes [6]. Inventory - In this cycle (20260122 - 0128), the domestic butadiene inventory increased, and the total inventory of samples increased by 11.25% compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased by 3.85% compared to last week. Some enterprises' inventory increased slightly due to the restart of sporadic units and market fluctuations. The inventory of sample ports increased by 17.39% compared to last week. Although the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises was normally digested and merchants expected a decrease in imports in February, there were imported ships arriving at the port during this cycle, which affected the phased increase in sample port inventory [6]. - According to the report on January 28, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 40,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous cycle. Although the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises was normally digested and merchants expected a certain decrease in imports in February, there were imported ships arriving at the port during this cycle, which affected the phased increase in port inventory [6]. Viewpoint - The prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, the domestic butadiene fundamentals are balanced. Butadiene will decline in the short term and has support in the medium term [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a trend of rising and then narrow fluctuations in January, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 3.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.03%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.47%. There are opportunities to explore in February as multiple brokerages have released their monthly investment portfolios covering various sectors [2]. Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Notable stocks receiving multiple recommendations include China Pacific Insurance, Zijin Mining, and Wanhua Chemical, each recommended by three brokerages. Other stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang, Beixin Building Materials, and Miao Yi Innovation received two recommendations [5]. - Miao Yi Innovation had the highest increase in January, with a rise of nearly 47%, closing at 314.88 yuan, while China Pacific Insurance experienced the largest decline, dropping over 5% to 89.37 yuan [5]. Group 2: Industry Preferences - Brokerages suggest that the spring market may see prolonged activity, with a focus on technology, consumer, and cyclical sectors. There is an expectation of a new market trend post-Spring Festival [7]. - Shenyin Wanguo believes that the spring market trend will continue, with a focus on cyclical sectors for alpha opportunities, while also suggesting a rotation towards bottom assets [7]. - Guotai Junan recommends a balanced growth strategy, focusing on technology, electric equipment, and software services, while also considering opportunities in the chemical industry due to rising raw material prices [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Donghai Securities highlights four main investment themes for February: maintaining focus on technology and domestic demand, early positioning in service consumption sectors, monitoring sectors with potential earnings improvements, and cyclical industries with expected profit recovery [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong price support from factories, with solid methionine prices rebounding [1]. - The average prices for various chemical products are provided, showing fluctuations in pricing and profitability across different segments [2]. - The report identifies key listed companies in the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and others [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends - The report includes a weekly overview of the basic chemical index trends, indicating overall market movements [10]. 2.2 Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported as 17,543, 13,864, and 14,085 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -171, -36, and +110 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 4,171, 1,493, and 2,363 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -332, -196, and -15 CNY/ton [2]. 2.3 Oil, Coal, and Olefin Sector - Average prices for ethane, propane, thermal coal, and naphtha are reported as 1,416, 4,349, 520, and 4,074 CNY/ton respectively, with increases of +147, +52, +0, and +171 CNY/ton [2]. - The average price for polyethylene is 7,162 CNY/ton, showing a rise of +62 CNY/ton [2]. - The theoretical profits for ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking for polyethylene production are reported as 694, 1,438, and -245 CNY/ton, with respective changes of -161, +41, and -127 CNY/ton [2]. 2.4 Coal Chemical Sector - Average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,184, 1,745, 3,962, and 2,579 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -27, +5, +68, and -21 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 199, 72, -92, and 445 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -21, +1, +10, and -8 CNY/ton [2]. 2.5 Animal Nutrition Sector - Average prices for VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine are reported as 61.5, 55.1, 17.9, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with changes of -0.7, +0.6, +0.3, and +0.0 CNY/kg [2].

政府工作报告 （一）经济增长迈出坚实步伐。抓好国家政策落实，梯次推出三批政策清单和服务业发展等专项政策， 做足增量、遏制减量、应对变量，经济运行稳健向好、进中提质。地区生产总值增长5.5%、达到10.3万 亿元，成为全国第三个、北方第一个过10万亿元省份。主要指标好于预期。农林牧渔业总产值超过1.3 万亿元，稳居全国首位；规上工业增加值增长7.6%，高于全国1.7个百分点；服务业增加值增长6.1%， 高于全国0.7个百分点；社会消费品零售总额增长5.1%，高于全国1.4个百分点；进出口增长4.5%，高于 全国0.7个百分点。全员劳动生产率持续提升，装备制造业营收、利润较快增长，民间投资占比达到 64.7%，社会融资规模增长9%，制造业中长期贷款余额增长10.6%，非化石能源发电量、用电量占比均 超过30%。项目投资支撑有力。省市县重点项目完成投资2.8万亿元，3920个新投产项目增加产值5100 多亿元。新争取国家政策性资金4700多亿元，支持项目4200余个。工业技改投资增长5.3%。交通、能 源、水利完成投资5400多亿元，董家口至五莲铁路及胶新铁路扩能改造、招远核电一期等项目开工，15 条高速公路建成通 ...

走在前、挑大梁，10万亿之上的山东何以能？答案写在脚下，也写在历史中。 封图：网络图片 卫星从这里发射上天。烟台东方航天港累计成功发射137颗卫星，并聚集了30多家企业。一条集海上发射、火箭研发、卫星星座建设、卫星研 制、数据应用等的航天产业链初具雏形。 "深海一号"在这里下海。该船续航力超过14000海里，其搭载的潜水器"蛟龙号"具备7000米级下潜能力，这也是中国载人深潜的纪录。 海量新能源车在这里下线。2025年，山东新能源汽车产量超过110万辆，平均每天3000多辆下线，销往全国各地乃至世界市场；锂电池总产量达 到225GWh(吉瓦时)，占全国总产量的15.2%。山东成为新能源汽车产业的聚集地。 传统产业在这里蜕变出全新的技术、产能和形态。身处纺织业，即发集团开始从虾蟹壳中提炼纤维，织物染色无须用水；潍柴集团以科技赋能 内燃机产业，大缸径发动机应用于百万卡超算中心备电发电；青岛港（601298）自动化码头成为中国第一个、全球领先的全自动化集装箱码 头…… 放眼齐鲁大地，"十五五"开局之年，扑面而来的是一个不一样的山东。 今天的山东，是中国北方经济压舱石。北方每5元的产出就有1元是山东提供的；"十四五" ...

走在前、挑大梁，10万亿之上的山东何以能？答案写在脚下， 也写在历史中。 作者：种昂 封图：网络图片 卫星从这里发射上天。烟台东方航天港累计成功发射137颗卫星，并聚集了30多家企业。一条集海上发射、火箭研发、卫星星座建设、卫星研制、数 据应用等的航天产业链初具雏形。 "深海一号"在这里下海。该船续航力超过14000海里，其搭载的潜水器"蛟龙号"具备7000米级下潜能力，这也是中国载人深潜的纪录。 海量新能源车在这里下线。2025年，山东新能源汽车产量超过110万辆，平均每天3000多辆下线，销往全国各地乃至世界市场；锂电池总产量达到 225GWh（吉瓦时），占全国总产量的15.2%。山东成为新能源汽车产业的聚集地。 传统产业在这里蜕变出全新的技术、产能和形态。身处纺织业，即发集团开始从虾蟹壳中提炼纤维，织物染色无须用水；潍柴集团以科技赋能内燃机产 业，大缸径发动机应用于百万卡超算中心备电发电；青岛港自动化码头成为中国第一个、全球领先的全自动化集装箱码头…… 放眼齐鲁大地，"十五五"开局之年，扑面而来的是一个不一样的山东。 今天的山东，是中国北方经济压舱石。北方每5元的产出就有1元是山东提供的；"十四五"开局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a trend of rising and then narrow fluctuations in January, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 3.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.03%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.47% [1] Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Multiple brokerages have released their investment portfolios for February, covering various sectors including finance, non-ferrous metals, and materials [1] - The most frequently recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance, Zijin Mining, and Wanhua Chemical, each receiving recommendations from three brokerages [4] - Notable stock performances include兆易创新, which saw a nearly 47% increase in January, and中国中免, which experienced a decline of over 5% [4] Group 2: Industry Preferences - Brokerages suggest that the spring market may see a prolonged period of activity, with potential new trends emerging post-Chinese New Year [6] - Recommendations focus on technology, consumer sectors, and cyclical industries, with an emphasis on identifying Alpha opportunities in cyclical sectors [7] - Specific sectors highlighted for potential growth include food and beverage, real estate, and resource-related industries, with a focus on quality stocks that exhibit both Beta elasticity and Alpha value [7][8] Group 3: Investment Strategies - A balanced growth strategy is recommended, focusing on technology, raw materials, and construction materials benefiting from urban renewal policies [8] - The service consumption sector, including tourism and dining, is suggested for early positioning ahead of the holiday season [9] - Attention is drawn to sectors likely to exceed performance expectations during the earnings reporting period, particularly in resource products and equipment manufacturing [10]

多家券商认为春季躁动的持续时间可能拉长，春节后市场或将迎来一波新的行情。 其中，兆易创新1月内涨幅最多，累计涨近47%，最新收盘价报314.88元；中国中免1月内跌幅最大，累计跌超5%，最新 收盘价报89.37元。 | STATE | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券 | 最新 | 总市值 | 1月月内 | 所属 | 获推荐 | 推荐 | | 简称 | 收盘价 (元) | (亿元) | 涨跌幅 | 行业 | 次数 | 券商 | | 中国太保 | 45.55 | 4093.97 | 8.69% | 美部 | 3 | 中泰证券 太平洋 | | | | | | | | 平安证券 | | 器等处,不 | 40.14 | 10509.07 | 16.45% | 材料 | 3 | 华泰证券 中国银河 | | | | | | | | 光大证券 | | 万华化学 | 87.97 | 2753.88 | 14.72% | 材料 | 3 | 中泰证券 光大证券 | | | | | | | | 太平洋 | | | | 第二回经 | | | | ...

Group 1: Economic Growth and Projections - In 2025, Shandong Province's GDP is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan, reaching 10.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, making it the third province in China and the first in the north to join the "trillion club" [2] - The value added by the primary industry is expected to be 677.5 billion yuan, growing by 4.0%; the secondary industry is projected at 4.0541 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5.0%; and the tertiary industry is anticipated to reach 5.5881 trillion yuan, growing by 6.1% [2] - Industrial output is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% in the added value of above-scale industries [2] Group 2: Capital Market Development - The number of listed companies in Shandong is expected to reach 311 by 2025, with the total market capitalization nearing 5 trillion yuan, achieving a historical high [4] - The Shandong stock index is projected to have a growth rate of 44.25%, ranking third in the country, with a total trading volume of 1.36 trillion shares, placing it sixth nationwide [6] - The direct financing amount for listed companies in Shandong is expected to reach 24.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 303.52% [5] Group 3: Corporate Performance and Market Dynamics - In 2025, Shandong's listed companies are projected to achieve a total operating income of 2.31 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.52% [14] - The net profit for these companies is expected to reach 151.451 billion yuan, highlighting their significant role in the national economy [14] - The total market capitalization of Shandong's listed companies is anticipated to reach 4.91 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.82% [10] Group 4: Innovation and R&D - Shandong's listed companies are expected to invest 625.66 billion yuan in R&D in 2025, with a growth rate of 1.87% [17] - The R&D intensity for these companies is projected to be 2.71%, indicating a focus on technological innovation and industry upgrades [17] - Notable advancements include the successful mass production of high-performance materials and breakthroughs in key technologies, contributing to the development of new productive forces [18][19]

最重要的是，烟台市企业凭借4项核心成果强势入围，一跃成为榜单上的"最大赢家"。 文 | 陈明一 2026年山东省政府工作报告，将"科技创新实力"列入"十五五"时期经济社会发展目标任务的"八个显著提升"。 事实上，提及"科技创新实力"，山东刚刚凭借硬实力"走红"。1月25日，2025年度山东省十大科技创新成果榜单正式发布，成为业界关注的焦点。 山东道恩高分子材料股份有限公司的高端轮胎阻隔材料，莱州明波水产有限公司的名贵海鱼规模化人工繁育技术，万华化学集团的高性能柠檬醛，烟台中集 来福士海洋科技集团有限公司的新能源汽车专用运输船…… 这一亮眼成绩并非偶然的灵光乍现，而是 "十四五" 以来烟台坚定"推动科技创新与产业创新深度融合"主线的必然结果。 据烟台市政府网站，1月27日下午，省十四届人大四次会议烟台代表团举行全体会议，集中审议省政府工作报告，审查省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年 规划纲要（草案）。 烟台市委书记江成在发言时着重提到，"十五五"时期，烟台市将"重点推动体量之变、创新之变、格局之变"，"实现从工业大市向先进制造业强市转变"。可 以说，唯有"科技创新"方可实现"蝶变"。 从政策体系到创新实践，从企业 ...