Core Viewpoint - Chinese companies are increasingly seeking opportunities in overseas markets as domestic growth becomes insufficient, leading to a diverse range of enterprises exploring various globalization paths [1][2]. Group 1: Evolution of Chinese Companies Going Global - The history of Chinese companies going global has evolved from merely exporting products to building ecosystems and value chains [2][3]. - The initial phase involved exporting products, with companies like GCL-Poly Energy relying on cost advantages and scale to penetrate global markets [2]. - The evolution includes a shift towards higher value segments, such as technology and brand development, with companies like GCL-Poly integrating advanced technologies to enhance competitiveness [3]. Group 2: Current Trends in Overseas Expansion - Chinese companies are now engaging in collaborative overseas expansion, establishing factories in multiple countries, including Indonesia, Thailand, Hungary, Morocco, and Brazil, showcasing rapid deployment [4][5]. - This cluster-based approach significantly reduces the risks and challenges associated with individual companies expanding abroad, enhancing the speed and depth of Chinese manufacturing advantages overseas [5]. Group 3: Challenges in the Deep Water Zone - The current global business environment presents complexities, including geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism, which require companies to adapt their strategies for overseas operations [9][10]. - Companies face hidden costs, such as "cognitive costs," which necessitate a deep understanding of local markets and consumer behaviors rather than merely replicating domestic strategies [6][10]. - Compliance has become a critical infrastructure for companies, with a focus on obtaining necessary certifications and understanding local regulations [7]. Group 4: Localization and Cultural Integration - Successful overseas expansion increasingly relies on local talent and cultural integration, with companies prioritizing hiring local employees to enhance market understanding [8]. - Companies must also localize operations, including supply chains and delivery systems, to resonate with local market dynamics [8]. Group 5: Resilience Amidst Uncertainty - Despite external uncertainties, Chinese companies are accelerating their globalization strategies, focusing on diversified geographical distribution to mitigate risks [10]. - The rise of digitalization and AI technologies is lowering barriers for smaller enterprises to expand internationally, with predictions of significant trade growth driven by AI advancements [10][11]. Group 6: Product Competitiveness - Ultimately, the core competitiveness of companies will hinge on the quality and adaptability of their products, which are essential for navigating external challenges [12][13]. - Companies must focus on enhancing their technological capabilities and product offerings to remain resilient against fluctuating trade policies and market conditions [13].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位 。截至12月7日，我国港口集装箱吞吐量环比-1.8%，上 周环比为-0.3%，四周同比9.5%，上周为9.6%。 2、价格：铜价、金价上涨 。COMEX黄金收于4302.7美金/盎司，上涨2.5%；LME三个月铜价收于 11795美元/吨，上涨1.5%。 景气向下 利率： 期限利差加大 。截至12月12日，1年期、5年期、10年期国债收益率分别报1.3879%、 1.6279%、1.8396%，较12月5日环比分别变化-1.37bps、-0.43bps、-0.84bps。 风险提示： 高频数据更新不及时。 报告目录 | 每周经济观察 | | --- | | (一)华创宏观 WEI 指数有所回落 | | (二)资产:股债夏普比率差仍在高位 | | (三)需求:乘用车零售增速明显回落 : | | (四)生产:基建高频仍偏弱 . | | (五)贸易:出口集装箱吞吐量维持高位 | | (六)物价:海外油价和国内地产相关价 ...

今年是我国提出"双碳目标"五周年，同样是"十四五""十五五"的承上启下之年。据生态环境部部长黄润 秋相关报告，我国"双碳"工作稳步进展、成绩斐然。 能源和产业转型成效显著 2020年9月，"碳达峰、碳中和"目标的提出，从环境角度进一步加速了ESG体系的健全与落 地。作为与"碳排放"关系最为密切的行业，能源企业通过产业转型升级、技术优化进步等措 施，在ESG领域已经取得了长足发展。不过，需求不平衡、产业内卷、气候冲击等一系列新 的挑战开始出现。 2020年，中国提出"双碳目标"，承诺力争2030年前实现碳达峰，2060年 前实现碳中和。2021年10月，国务院印发《2030年前碳达峰行动方案》，围绕"十四 五"、"十五五"两大重要时间段，提出了具体目标。 "十四五"期间，产业结构和能源结构调 整优化取得明显进展，重点行业能源利用效率大幅提升，煤炭消费增长得到严格控制，新型 电力系统加快构建，绿色低碳技术研发和推广应用取得新进展，绿色生产生活方式得到普遍 推行，有利于绿色低碳循环发展的政策体系进一步完善。到2025年，非化石能源消费比重达 到20%左右，单位国内生产总值能源消耗比2020年下降13.5%，单位国内 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 50 期 外贸高频维持高位 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 1、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位。截至 12 月 7 日，我国港口集装箱 吞吐量环比-1.8%，上周环比为-0.3%，四周同比 9.5%，上周为 9.6%。 2、价格：铜价、金价上涨。COMEX 黄金收于 4302.7 美金/盎司，上涨 2.5%； LME 三个月铜价收于 11795 美元/吨，上涨 1.5%。 （二）景气向下 1、华创宏观 WEI 指数有所回落。截至 12 月 7 日，该指数为 4.12%，11 月 30 日的 5.09%下行 0.97%。 2、乘用车零售增速明显回落。12 月第一周，乘用车零售同比增速-32%，前值 +2%。11 月全月同比为-8.1%。 3、地产销售：商品房住宅销售降幅再度扩大。我们统计的 67 个城市，12 月 前 12 日，商品房成交面积同比为-31%。11 月同比为-34%。 4、煤价继续走弱，地产系价格下跌。山西产动力末煤(Q5500)秦皇岛港平仓价 收于 745 元/吨，下跌 5.1%；螺纹钢上海现货价收于 3250 元/吨，下跌 0.6%； ...

锂电产业链价格下行趋势有望反转，固态电池产业化提速。锂电产业链经历几年下行期后，2026年多数 产品价格、盈利有望显著回暖。新技术方面，钢壳电池、硅负极、储能大电芯均有望在2026年实现批量 供应；固态电池技术产业化处于加速阶段，有望在2026年实现产线规模扩大以及装车测试增加，为 2027-2030年的批量化应用奠定基础。建议关注【宁德时代】、【亿纬锂能】、【中创新航】、【珠海 冠宇】、【天赐材料】、【恩捷股份】、【当升科技】、【厦钨新能】。 风电主机厂盈利能力修复，出口贡献业绩增长。2026年国内风电新增装机有望保持10%-20%增长，订单 饱和价格具有良好支撑。主机盈利逐季提高，出口放量提振业绩，国内外呈现景气共振态势。零部件在 2026年有望实现"量增价稳"，长期成长性值得期待。在海风装机、招标同比显著增长背景下，海缆和管 桩环节企业有望迎来订单和业绩共振。重点关注主机、零部件和海风龙头企业，包括【金风科技】、 【三一重能】、【时代新材】、【大金重工】、【东方电缆】、【海力风电】、【德力佳】。 光伏供给侧调整持续，无银化浆料、钙钛矿等新技术值得关注。在"反内卷"政策推动下供需改善推动盈 利筑底，硅料盈 ...

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities highlights several key areas of investment opportunity in the energy sector, particularly focusing on the growth of global energy storage demand, the expansion of AIDC power equipment industry, advancements in green methanol, adjustments in the photovoltaic supply side, recovery in the power grid equipment sector, and the impact of rising lithium battery material prices on profitability, as well as the progress in solid-state battery industrialization [1]. Group 1: Power Equipment Demand - The demand for power equipment is expected to grow rapidly in the AI era, driven by companies like Google Cloud, OpenAI, and TikTok planning to build data centers, which accelerates the infrastructure for AI [2]. - The global data center construction is accelerating, leading to an explosive growth in power demand for equipment in the AI sector [2]. Group 2: Energy Storage Demand - Global energy storage demand is continuously increasing, with a projected 404 GWh of installed capacity by 2026, representing a 38% year-on-year growth [3]. - Factors driving this demand include power supply shortages due to data centers in the U.S., unstable power grids in Europe, and supportive government policies in emerging markets [3]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a reversal of the downtrend in prices, with significant recovery in prices and profitability anticipated by 2026 [4]. - New technologies such as steel-shell batteries, silicon anodes, and large energy storage cells are expected to achieve mass supply by 2026, while solid-state battery technology is accelerating towards industrialization [4]. Group 4: Wind Power Sector - The domestic wind power sector is projected to maintain a 10%-20% growth in new installations by 2026, supported by saturated orders and stable pricing [5]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is improving, with exports contributing to performance growth, indicating a synchronized recovery in both domestic and international markets [5]. Group 5: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on cost reduction through new technologies such as low-silver and silver-free pastes, which are nearing mass production by 2026 [6]. - Companies in the photovoltaic industry are increasingly expanding into the semiconductor field, indicating a strategic shift in their business models [6].

Group 1: Power Equipment Industry - The demand for power equipment is rapidly increasing in the AI era, driven by the construction of data centers by companies like Google Cloud and OpenAI, leading to explosive growth in power equipment demand [1][29] - Global energy storage demand is expected to surge, with projections indicating that global energy storage installations will reach 404 GWh by 2026, a year-on-year increase of 38% [1][95] - Key companies to watch in the power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric, Igor, Hewei Electric, Shenghong Co., and Zhongheng Electric [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a reversal in the downward price trend, with significant price and profit recovery anticipated for most products by 2026 [2] - Solid-state battery technology is accelerating towards commercialization, with expectations for expanded production lines and increased testing by 2026, laying the groundwork for mass application from 2027 to 2030 [2][73] - Key companies in the lithium battery sector include CATL, EVE Energy, and Zhongxin Innovation [2][73] Group 3: Wind Power Industry - The domestic wind power sector is projected to maintain a 10%-20% growth in new installations in 2026, supported by saturated orders and stable pricing [2][58] - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is expected to recover, with export growth contributing to performance improvements [2][59] - Key companies to focus on in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Sany Renewable Energy, and Oriental Cable [2][59] Group 4: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on new technologies such as silver-free paste and perovskite, which are expected to improve cost efficiency [3][85] - The profitability of silicon material is anticipated to recover first, driven by supply-demand improvements [3][85] - Key companies to monitor in the photovoltaic sector include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinte Energy, and Tongwei Co. [3][85] Group 5: Energy Storage Industry - The energy storage market is experiencing significant growth, with domestic system tenders reaching 174.9 GWh from January to November, a year-on-year increase of approximately 165% [95] - In the U.S., large-scale energy storage installations are projected to reach 22.05 GW in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 28% [95][96] - Key companies in the energy storage sector include CATL, EVE Energy, and Sungrow Power Supply [95]

全球储能需求持续释放，国内市场化需求驱动储能订单呈现爆发式增长； 美国数据中心等负荷引起的电力供应短缺推动美国大储装机需求提升； 欧洲电网不稳定情况和现货峰谷价差拉大均带动推动储能需求；新兴市 场各国政府扶持政策频出，储能装机需求有望大幅度提升。我们预计 2026 年全球储能装机需求达到 404GWh，同比增长+38%，建议关注【宁 德时代】、【亿纬锂能】、【阳光电源】、【德业股份】、【禾望电气】、 【盛弘股份】。 锂电产业链价格下行趋势有望反转，固态电池产业化提速。锂电产业链经历 几年下行期后，2026 年多数产品价格、盈利有望显著回暖。新技术方面，钢 壳电池、硅负极、储能大电芯均有望在 2026 年实现批量供应；固态电池技 术产业化处于加速阶段，有望在 2026 年实现产线规模扩大以及装车测试增 加，为 2027-2030 年的批量化应用奠定基础。建议关注【宁德时代】、【亿 纬锂能】、【中创新航】、【珠海冠宇】、【天赐材料】、【恩捷股份】、 【当升科技】、【厦钨新能】。 风电主机厂盈利能力修复，出口贡献业绩增长。2026 年国内风电新增装机有 望保持 10%-20%增长，订单饱和价格具有良好支撑。主机盈利 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the futures market, important macro - economic news, developments in various industries such as energy, metals, black - series, and agriculture, as well as the situation in the financial market including stocks, bonds, and international markets. It also lists upcoming economic indicators and events. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - The main contract of US crude oil closed down 1.24% at $58.11 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 1.2% to $61.97 per barrel [5] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.78% at $4126.3 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.50% at $51.08 per ounce. London base metals showed mixed results [6] - As of December 12 at 23:00, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends, with coking coal and caustic soda up over 3%, and ethylene glycol up nearly 2%. Palm oil, rapeseed oil, iron ore, soybeans, and soybean oil fell nearly 1% [7] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10 - 11. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy [10] - As of December 12, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose 108.83 points, and the China Export Containerized Freight Composite Index rose 0.3% [10] - The National Financial System Work Conference was held on December 12. The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on December 15 [11] - In the first eleven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The M2 balance at the end of November was 336.99 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [13] - Ukraine has abandoned its ambition to join NATO to end the conflict with Russia. Relevant departments issued a notice to boost consumption [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - Russia's oil and gas revenue in December is expected to almost halve to $5.2 billion, the lowest monthly level since August 2020 [16] - Russia's seaborne refined oil exports in November decreased 0.8% from October to 7.494 million tons. Syria expects its natural gas daily output to increase to about 15 million cubic meters by the end of 2026 [18] Metal Futures - Several silicon material leading enterprises jointly established Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. The planned silicon material production capacity will not exceed 1.5 million tons, and the company's registered capital is 3 billion yuan [20] - Shandong Province plans to make the copper industry's total output value exceed 200 billion yuan by 2027. A Guinea mining enterprise will resume production on December 13 [20] - From March 21 - November 20, 2025, Iran's aluminum ingot production increased 3% year - on - year. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange revised relevant rules for lithium carbonate futures and options [21][23] - The exchange imposed a 6 - month trading restriction on some clients for exceeding the position limit in polysilicon futures [23] Black - Series Futures - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 120,360 tons, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 60 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.53 percentage points [25] - The purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills in Shandong and Hebei decreased. The total inventory of steel products in cities decreased by 369,200 tons this week [26][28] Agricultural Product Futures - As of the week of December 12, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 163.34 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 240.69 yuan per head [30] - In 2025, the national grain sown area, unit yield, and total output all increased. Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10 increased 46.98% compared with the same period last month [30][31] - US exporters sold soybeans, corn, and soybean meal to China, unknown destinations, and Mexico respectively [31] Financial Market Finance - Last week, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated, and the technology - growth sector performed well. The ChiNext Index rose nearly 3% [34] - As of December 11, the total scale of CSI A500 - linked ETFs reached 203.7 billion yuan. Many stocks were investigated by institutions, and there was a wave of new fund issuances [34][35] - Fund managers believe that technology stocks may continue to be the main line, but the market next year may be more balanced, and the investment opportunities of some sectors are emerging [35] - Zhongxin Securities believes that the stock market should focus on varieties with overseas exposure as the base and positive domestic demand changes [37] - Weilan New Energy is being guided by CSC to list on the ChiNext [37] Industry - China's artificial intelligence industry is accelerating, and the core industry scale is expected to exceed one trillion yuan in 2025. The added value of the machinery industry has been growing [38][39] - China's natural gas production is expected to reach 300 billion cubic meters in 2030. China is promoting the "aluminum for copper" in air - conditioners [39] - The steel industry is called on to combat "involution", and China's first deep - water oilfield has achieved a new production record [40] - The supply of traditional DDR4/5 DRAM memory is expected to be tight until 2028 [41] Overseas - Ukraine and the US are negotiating a "peace plan". South Korea's ICT product exports in November increased 24.3% year - on - year [42][43] International Stock Markets - SpaceX is preparing for a potential IPO in 2026, aiming to raise funds for three major projects. If successful, it may be the largest IPO in history [45] Commodities - The China Taiyuan Coal Trading Center and Tencent Cloud will jointly build a coal price index large - model. Institutions are more optimistic about gold next year [46] Bonds - Three Shenzhen enterprises completed green foreign debt registration, with a total contract amount exceeding 170 million yuan. Vanke's bond extension plan was not passed [47] - The issuance scale of green financial bonds and brokerage bonds has increased significantly this year [49] Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events - A series of economic indicators from countries such as Japan, the UK, China, Germany, and the US will be released, including industrial added value, consumer price index, and real estate - related data [51] - Events such as central bank open - market operations, press conferences on economic operations, and corporate earnings reports are scheduled to take place [53][58]

交银国际研究 行业剖析 行业评级 领先 2025 年 12 月 5 日 新能源与公用事业行业 2026 年展望：行业"反内卷"之下多晶硅初见曙光，大储需求超预期 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 12/24 4/25 8/25 12/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 行业表现 恒生指数 郑民康 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1810 文昊, CPA bob.wen@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3667 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | ...