1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there is no driving force, and the market shows a weak and volatile pattern. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about environmental protection speculation in winter. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside space for industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to buy long - term contracts during peak seasons at low prices. The price trend of industrial silicon is also closely related to the price fluctuations of related products such as polysilicon and coking coal [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving factors for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures include the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, production cuts on the supply side due to environmental protection constraints or rising costs, and the expected production cuts on the demand side due to weak terminal sales. The industry has expectations for eliminating backward production capacity, but due to the large number of private enterprises and scattered layout in the industrial silicon industry, there is a lack of confidence in effective capacity clearance through industry self - regulation. - Electricity costs account for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect electricity costs and then industrial silicon prices. In December, the operating rate of industrial silicon producers is expected to decline. Downstream, the polysilicon industry is reducing production, the silicone monomer plants have maintenance plans, and only the aluminum alloy industry maintains a stable operating rate [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Logic - Near - term trading logic (before the end of 2025): Environmental protection disturbances, and expected production cuts on both the supply and demand sides. - Long - term trading logic (after early 2026): The progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, and continuous attention to demand [4]. 3.1.3 Industrial Operation Suggestions - Sales management: For enterprises planning to produce industrial silicon in the future and worried about price drops during sales, they can sell corresponding futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (buy put options and sell call options) with a recommended hedging ratio of 20%. - Procurement management: For enterprises planning to produce polysilicon, silicone, or aluminum alloy in the future, if the finished product price is not correlated, they can buy corresponding futures contracts with a recommended hedging ratio of 30% and use a combined options strategy (sell put options and buy call options) with a ratio of 10%. If the finished product price is correlated, they can sell corresponding futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (buy put options and sell call options) with a ratio of 20%. - Inventory management: For enterprises with high industrial silicon inventory and worried about inventory depreciation due to price drops, they can short futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (sell call options and buy put options) with recommended hedging ratios of 20% and 10% respectively [5]. 3.2 Important Information and Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On December 8, Jianghan New Materials announced that a 60,000 - ton/year trichlorosilane plant was put into trial operation in October this year, 10,000 tons of silane production capacity is planned to be put into trial operation in December, and another 10,000 tons each will be put into trial operation in mid - and late - next year. In 2027, optical fiber - grade silicon tetrachloride and electronic - grade tetraethyl orthosilicate plants will be gradually built. - On December 8, GCL Technology announced that its subsidiaries and other parties signed a partnership agreement to establish a limited partnership, which plans to acquire a 42.469% stake in Inner Mongolia Xinyuan Silicon Materials Technology Co., Ltd. from Hongyuan Green Energy and Tibet Ruihua for a total consideration of RMB 2.01 billion [6]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch No events to watch were mentioned in the report [7]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - The closing price of the industrial silicon weighted index contract on Friday was 8,412 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66%. The trading volume was 619,800 lots, a week - on - week increase of 113.65%, and the open interest was 460,100 lots, an increase of 19,000 lots week - on - week. The monthly spread between SI2601 and SI2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,619 lots, an increase of 1,331 lots week - on - week. - The industrial silicon weighted futures price quickly fell below the 5 - day moving average this week. The disk showed the characteristic of "short - position increase and price decline". The current price quickly fell below the lower track of the Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Bandwidth showed signs of widening. It is necessary to focus on the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton, and from Thursday to Friday, there was a characteristic of "short - position exit and price stabilization" [10][11]. 3.3.2 Option Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been strengthening in the past week, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually expanding. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has also been strengthening. The PCR of option open interest has been rising, indicating an increasing bearish sentiment in the market [13]. 3.3.3 Term Structure Analysis - The term structure of industrial silicon futures shows a back structure, which is relatively stable. The basis of the main industrial silicon contract is at a relatively high level [17][19]. 3.3.4 Spot Data of the Silicon Industry Chain - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have shown different degrees of decline. The prices of industrial silicon powder have also decreased. The price of trichlorosilane and polysilicon N - type price index remained unchanged, the price of silicone DMC was stable, and the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased slightly [22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit - Since hitting the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous recovery channel. The profit of the polysilicon industry is currently stable, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, while the profit of the silicone industry is recovering [23]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - The weekly production and operating rates of industrial silicon from different data sources showed different trends. The weekly production of some data sources increased, while others decreased. The operating rates also showed mixed trends [30]. - The inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions and warehouses showed different changes [47][48][50]. 3.5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production of domestic polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate also declined. The total inventory of polysilicon increased slightly, with different changes in the inventory of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts [51][52][54]. 3.5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys decreased slightly, and the inventory of primary aluminum alloy decreased, while the inventory of secondary aluminum alloy decreased significantly [58][59]. 3.5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC decreased, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.12% [64]. 3.5.5 Terminal - The report shows the data trends of China's commercial housing sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity [67].

多晶硅行业成立收储平台终于有了官方的声音。 中国光伏行业协会官方微信号最新发布的《光伏"反内卷"周年考：让价格回归理性——深入学习贯彻中 央经济工作会议精神坚定信心乘势而进》文章正式官宣：近日完成注册的北京光和谦成科技有限责任公 司（以下简称"光和谦成"）是光伏行业酝酿半年之久的多晶硅产能整合收购平台。 中国光伏行业协会在文中称，这一由相关主管部门联合指导、多家龙头骨干企业共同发起的产业治理创 新，被业内视为破解光伏"内卷式"恶性竞争的关键之一。 "光伏行业的硅料收储模式，是历史上从来没有过的，可以说这是光伏行业的一次重大的结构性调 整。"营口金辰机械股份有限公司首席执行官祁海珅在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示。 双轨模式运行 天眼查显示，光和谦成共有10名股东。通威股份有限公司通过旗下通威光伏科技（峨眉山）有限公司持 股30.35%，成为第一大股东。协鑫科技控股有限公司（以下简称"协鑫科技"）通过旗下协鑫科技咨询服 务（苏州）有限公司持股16.79%，为第二大股东。此外，还有上海东方希望新能源科技有限公司、新 疆大全新能源股份有限公司、新特能源股份有限公司、亚洲硅业（青海）股份有限公司、青海丽豪新能 源科技 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] AI 驱动基础设施需求，看好北美电力产业链 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1. 人形机器人 优必选斩获 AI 大模型公司超 0.5 亿元订单 随着海内外企业布局加速&AI 技术突破，人形机器有望迎来量产落 地时点。在降本需求的驱动下，人形机器人核心零部件的国产替代 需求强烈，市场空间广阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有望深度受 益。灵巧手、大脑和轻量化是人形机器人商业化落地的关键环节， 重点看好技术迭代和产业演进领先的国内生产厂商。 2. 新能源汽车 多家车企公布 11 月新能源汽车交付/销量 我们认为，在行业旺季趋势下，11月国内多数车企实现新能源汽车 交付/销量环比增长，全年新能源汽车表现亮眼。明年展望来看， 国内新能源汽车预计保持稳定增长，商用车电动化率提升叠加单车 带电量的增加预计带动动力电池需求较快增长。叠加国内外储能高 景气度，预计全年锂电池出货同比增长明显。在前期供给过剩导致 价格大幅下跌的背景下，动力及储能电池产业链 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current production cut scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and the follow - up depends on actual production cuts. The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [3][16][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 370 yuan/ton to 8435 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - fed 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8750 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 3260 yuan/ton to 58770 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Partial Start of Production Cuts, Polysilicon Capacity Integration and Acquisition Platform Launched - **Industrial silicon**: This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures dropped significantly. Factories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Gansu had changes in the number of furnaces. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.45 tons. After updating the balance sheet, it is estimated that industrial silicon will be in tight balance in December, but there may be inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year. The current factory inventory pressure is not large, and the basis has only strengthened by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The current futures price has reached the cash cost line of 50% of the monthly output [11]. - **Organic silicon**: This week, the organic silicon price remained stable. Some device operations changed, the overall enterprise operating rate was 69.84%, the weekly output was 4.62 tons, a decrease of 4.74% week - on - week, and the inventory was 4.44 tons, a decrease of 2.63% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly. The price of N - type dense re - feeding material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg, and the granular material remained at 50 - 51 yuan/kg. Considering the production cuts of leading enterprises, the planned production in December is expected to be 11.2 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate. The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [13]. - **Silicon wafers**: This week, the silicon wafer price stopped falling. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.18/1.20 - 1.23/1.50 yuan/piece. The planned production in December is 45GW. After the production cuts, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [14]. - **Battery cells**: This week, the battery cell price continued to decline. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells dropped to 0.28 yuan/watt, and the G12R model remained at 0.275 yuan/watt. The planned production in December is 47.8GW. The cost pressure is rising, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise [14]. - **Components**: This week, the component price remained basically stable. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects was 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. The planned production in December will drop significantly to 37GW. The price is expected to remain stable [15]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial silicon**: The current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. The new warehouse receipts are difficult to digest. The current futures valuation is low, and the strategy is to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies [16]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall. The strategy is to focus on long - buying opportunities on dips after the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and observe the absolute price of the 01 contract for arbitrage [17]. 3.4 Hot News Compilation - The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, aiming to solve the "involution" - style vicious competition in the photovoltaic industry. The platform will operate in a dual - track mode of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible use of production capacity" [18]. - The winning bid candidates for the 2.5GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement of China Three Gorges Corporation were announced, with the bid price ranging from 0.75 to 0.763 yuan/W and an average price of 0.756 yuan/W [19]. 3.5 Industrial Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data tracking charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, output, inventory, and profit data [20][30][34][40][48][55].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The establishment of a silicon material storage platform company enhances confidence in the profitability reversal of the photovoltaic industry. The platform, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, is expected to confirm reasonable pricing and storage targets for polysilicon sales [5][6] - The wind power sector shows strong bidding activity, with domestic land wind turbine bidding reaching 5.06GW in December, indicating sustained high demand [6][7] - The energy storage market is experiencing significant growth, with over 1,600 new user-side storage projects added in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting a 26% increase in project numbers and an 86% increase in installed capacity year-on-year [6][7] - The lithium battery industry is advancing solid-state battery layouts, with companies actively pursuing strategic partnerships and price adjustments in response to rising raw material costs [7][8] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - The establishment of the silicon material storage platform is expected to lead to increased registered capital and improved pricing strategies for polysilicon [5] - Demand remains weak in the short term, with component manufacturers planning significant production cuts in December [6] Wind Power Sector - Domestic land wind turbine bidding has reached 5.06GW, with a notable increase in procurement for both land and offshore wind projects [6] - The average bidding price for new land wind projects has shown a recovery, indicating a positive trend in the market [6] Energy Storage Sector - The user-side energy storage market is rapidly growing, with significant increases in both project numbers and installed capacity [6] - A major independent energy storage project in Inner Mongolia has commenced operations, highlighting the sector's development [6] Lithium Battery Sector - Companies are focusing on solid-state battery innovations and adjusting prices due to rising production costs [7] - The price transmission within the lithium battery supply chain is improving, with leading companies actively managing supply and customer relationships [7]

Core Insights - The approval of the first provincial UHV project in Zhejiang and accelerated progress in controllable nuclear fusion commercialization are significant developments in the power equipment sector [2][63] - The total investment for the Zhejiang UHV AC ring network project is 29.3 billion RMB, marking it as the highest investment and largest single project in China's UHV AC engineering history [63] - The report recommends companies such as Pinggao Electric, Shunhua Electric, and Huaming Equipment in the power equipment sector, while suggesting attention to Tebian Electric [2] - For controllable nuclear fusion, Xuch Electric is recommended, with additional focus on companies like New Wind Power, Saijing Technology, Guoguang Electric, Hailu Heavy Industry, and Yongding Co [2] Industry Developments - The global opening of the ITER organization's core simulation tool IMAS is expected to accelerate the commercialization of fusion energy [2] - Huadian Energy has released new regulations for wind and solar investment mergers, requiring a minimum internal rate of return of 6.5% for capital in domestic and foreign wind and solar projects [3] - The energy storage sector saw a significant year-on-year increase of over 80% in procurement capacity in November, with a total scale of 11.5 GW/33.5 GWh [3] - The establishment of a photovoltaic storage platform company aims to regulate the photovoltaic industry by storing approximately 1 million tons of outdated capacity [4] Market Trends - In November, the sales of new energy vehicles in ten major European countries increased by 38.8% month-on-month, with a total of 290,000 units sold [25] - The report highlights the stable pricing of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, indicating a steady market despite fluctuations in demand [10][11][14] - The report notes that the prices of lithium salts and ternary materials have shown mixed changes, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising to 94,500 RMB per ton [47]

Core Viewpoint - The solar energy stocks have experienced a significant increase, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - New Special Energy (01799) rose by 3.81% - Xinyi Energy (03868) increased by 3.57% - Xinyi Glass (00868) saw a rise of 2.83% - Flat Glass (06865) grew by 2.81% - Shunfeng Photovoltaic (01250) climbed by 2.48% - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) went up by 1.90% [1][1][1] Group 2: Industry Developments - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has been officially established through joint investment from several leading silicon material companies [1] - Industry insiders report that the planned retained silicon material capacity for related companies will not exceed 1.5 million tons [1][1]

格隆汇12月12日丨协鑫集成(002506.SZ)公布，公司于2023年1月6日召开第五届董事会第三十三次会 议，审议通过了《关于与关联方共同投资设立合资公司暨关联交易的议案》，公司控股子公司合肥协鑫 集成新能源科技有限公司（简称"合肥集成"）与江苏苏能光伏科技发展有限公司（简称"苏能光伏"）共 同投资成立合资销售平台公司芜湖协鑫睿恒新能源有限公司（简称"合资公司"），合肥集成持有51%股 份，合资公司纳入公司合并报表范围内。鉴于合资公司设立至今发展情况未达预期，经双方协商一致， 决定注销合资公司。公司实际控制人朱共山先生间接控制协鑫科技控股有限公司（股票代码： HK.03800）15.89%股权，协鑫科技控股有限公司间接控制苏能光伏100%股权，故苏能光伏为公司关联 方。 ...

格隆汇12月12日丨协鑫集成(002506.SZ)公布，公司于2023年1月6日召开第五届董事会第三十三次会 议，审议通过了《关于与关联方共同投资设立合资公司暨关联交易的议案》，公司控股子公司合肥协鑫 集成新能源科技有限公司（简称"合肥集成"）与江苏苏能光伏科技发展有限公司（简称"苏能光伏"）共 同投资成立合资销售平台公司芜湖协鑫睿恒新能源有限公司（简称"合资公司"），合肥集成持有51%股 份，合资公司纳入公司合并报表范围内。鉴于合资公司设立至今发展情况未达预期，经双方协商一致， 决定注销合资公司。公司实际控制人朱共山先生间接控制协鑫科技控股有限公司（股票代码： HK.03800）15.89%股权，协鑫科技控股有限公司间接控制苏能光伏100%股权，故苏能光伏为公司关联 方。 ...

Group 1 - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. is seen as a significant step towards "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry [1] - The annual silicon material production capacity planned by related companies will not exceed 1.5 million tons [1] - Guanghe Qiancheng currently has a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, with major shareholders including Tongwei, Xiexin, Dongfang Hope, Daqo New Energy, and Xinte Energy [1] Group 2 - The company plans to increase its capital in the future, which will lead to changes in the shareholding proportions among shareholders [1] - The shareholding structure of Guanghe Qiancheng will allow for free transfer of shares among shareholders [1]