Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows resilience, and the market generally expects that after the replacement of the Fed Chairman, a relatively loose monetary policy will be adopted, pushing up the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The structural contradiction of supply falling short of demand between the copper mine supply end and the electrolytic copper smelting end is prominent, and the copper smelting end may continue to be under pressure. It is expected that the global copper production growth rate will be limited next year. Although the traditional power distribution copper demand accounts for the largest proportion, the copper consumption in emerging fields such as new energy power generation is growing rapidly. The upgrade of global power grid and other infrastructure in the future may support copper demand, and the incremental copper demand in new energy power generation and other industries is promising. The Shanghai copper futures have broken through the 100,000 - yuan/ton mark, and the market is expected to remain strong around New Year's Day [7]. - The recommended strategy is to continue to hold medium - term long positions, conduct short - term rolling long operations, and the medium - term support range for Shanghai copper 2603 is 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: The US economy shows resilience, with the real GDP in the third quarter growing by 4.3%, the fastest in two years. The market expects a more relaxed monetary policy after the change of the Fed Chairman [7]. - **Supply**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/lb, significantly lower than that in 2025. In 2025, due to various disturbances, the annual mine - end production guidance has been revised down by over 500,000 tons, and the copper concentrate supply in 2025 is expected to be basically the same as in 2024. The supply - demand contradiction between the copper mine supply end and the smelting end is prominent [7]. - **Demand**: The traditional power distribution copper demand accounts for about 28%. The copper consumption in new energy power generation and other emerging industries is growing rapidly. In 2024, the copper demand from clean energy reached 7.737 million tons, a 28.9% increase from 2021. The future infrastructure upgrade may support copper demand [7]. - **Inventory**: Due to the rise in copper prices affecting downstream procurement, the domestic social inventory and SHFE inventory have rebounded rapidly in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: Continue to hold medium - term long positions, conduct short - term rolling long operations, and the medium - term support range for Shanghai copper 2603 is 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Spot and Futures Markets - The report presents figures on domestic spot and futures prices, Shanghai flat - water copper premiums and discounts, LME copper prices, and the Shanghai - London copper price ratio, but no specific analysis content is provided [11][13] 3. Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Mine Capital Expenditure and New Discoveries**: Global copper exploration investment has fluctuated greatly. Since 2015, the discovery of high - grade copper mines has decreased year by year, and new large - scale copper mines are in areas with poor geological conditions or political instability [20]. - **Global Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production Distribution**: In 2024, Chile accounted for 23% of global copper mine production, and China accounted for 45% of global refined copper production [23][25]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fee TC and Global Copper Mine Production**: As of December 26, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $44.70/ton, and the spot price was $3,291/ton. The current spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In 2025, the global copper concentrate production showed a certain trend [30]. - **2026 Global Newly Expanded and Interrupted Copper Mine Output Increment**: The total incremental output in 2026 is expected to be 533,000 tons, but the actual growth rate may be less than 1.5%. It is estimated that the overseas new - added capacity from 2025 - 2026 will be 620,000 tons [32][33]. - **Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory**: In November 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.5262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. As of the 52nd week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate was 680,000 tons [36]. - **Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production**: In October 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2419 million tons, with a supply shortage of 1,400 tons. In the same month, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [41]. - **Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export Volume**: In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 304,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.47%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports were 681,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.33% [43]. - **Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Premium - Discount Difference**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative scrap copper imports were 2.104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. As of December 26, 2025, the premium - discount difference in the Guangdong market was 5,928 yuan/ton [47][48]. - **International Visible Inventory**: As of December 23, 2025, the LME inventory was 157,800 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached a new high in recent years [54][55]. - **Domestic Inventory**: Since May 2025, the domestic social inventory has fluctuated between 1 - 2 million tons. As of December 25, 2025, the social inventory was 202,200 tons. The SHFE inventory has also remained low [59]. 4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 22.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and the total export volume from January to November 2025 was 1.4971 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.10% [65][70]. - **Terminal Market - Power**: From January to November 2025, the investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 850 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; the investment in power grid projects was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [74]. - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to November, China's real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% [80]. - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 53.6%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2026 will reach 1.85 million vehicles [85][90]. - **Terminal Market - Home Appliances**: In November 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November 2025, the export volume of household appliances was 408.2801 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4% [94]. - **Terminal Market - Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: As of November 2025, China's solar power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4% [98]. - **Chinese Photovoltaic and Wind Power Newly - Added Copper Consumption and Global AI Copper Consumption Forecast**: It is expected that the copper consumption of China's photovoltaic and wind power installations will decrease in 2025 and 2026. The global data center scale and copper consumption are expected to increase in 2025 and 2026 [100][101][102]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Downstream Demand Structure Change and Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: From 2026 - 2028, the global refined copper supply and demand will have a continuous gap of 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons respectively. The proportion of new energy consumption in total consumption is increasing [106]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific analysis content is provided [109]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged to record highs, driven by supply disruptions and strong demand, particularly from the US and China, indicating a potential for continued price increases in the near future. Group 1: Price Movements - Copper trading on the London Metal Exchange reached a record high of $12,282 per tonne, while prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange approached 100,000 yuan or $14,270 per tonne, marking a significant premium over US markets [1] - The most active copper contract for March delivery on the Comex in New York rose over 5% to an intraday high of $5.90345 per pound, equivalent to just over $13,000 per tonne, the highest level since July [2] Group 2: Supply Disruptions - Significant supply disruptions have been noted, including a deadly accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, leading Freeport McMoRan to declare force majeure and reduce its output guidance for 2026 [3] - Other incidents, such as an underground flood at Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula mine and a fatal rock blast at Codelco's El Teniente mine, have also impacted global copper production [4] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - BMO Capital Markets forecasts an average copper price of $12,500 per tonne by Q2 2026, anticipating that mine supply will eventually catch up [5] - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will be constrained to $10,000 - $11,000 per tonne in 2026 due to a projected surplus, despite current supply challenges [16] - In contrast, Bank of America has raised its price forecasts to $11,313 per tonne for 2026 and $13,501 per tonne for 2027, citing mine disruptions and strong demand [20] Group 4: Market Dynamics - A Chinese trader has made significant investments in copper, holding a net long position of approximately 90 kilotonnes, reflecting confidence in the market despite volatility [22] - BloombergNEF anticipates a structural deficit in copper starting from 2026, driven by electrification demand outpacing supply, with a potential shortfall of 19 million tonnes by 2050 without new mines [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, European and American financial markets were closed for holidays, while in the early morning of Thursday, the accelerating upward trend of metals continued. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. The Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates if the economy meets expectations. Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce will promote year - end consumption and supply guarantee, and the RMB has accelerated its appreciation at the end of the year. The A - share market has further risen [2][3]. - The performance of precious metals has diverged. Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, silver is rising, platinum prices have fluctuated sharply and then risen, and palladium prices have dropped significantly. It is expected that the precious metal market will experience increased volatility in the short term [4]. - The price of copper continues to rise due to the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. The price of aluminum is oscillating at a high level driven by the long - position atmosphere. The price of zinc is oscillating with inventory reduction providing support. The upward trend of lead prices has slowed down. The price of tin is oscillating at a high level. The price of industrial silicon is oscillating strongly. The prices of steel products are oscillating and adjusting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price of iron ore is oscillating downward. The prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating and adjusting. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are oscillating. The price of palm oil is oscillating with a weakening rebound [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: European and American financial markets were closed for holidays on Christmas. The Japanese government continues to expand its budget, with a planned 122 trillion yen budget in the new fiscal year, a 6.3% year - on - year increase, mainly driven by social security and defense expenditures. The Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo said that wage growth is pushing inflation steadily towards 2%, and if the economy meets expectations, the interest - rate hike path will continue [2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Commerce will promote year - end consumption and supply guarantee. The RMB has accelerated its appreciation at the end of the year, with the offshore and onshore exchange rates breaking through 7.0 and 7.01 respectively, reaching the highest level since the end of September last year. The A - share market has further risen, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching nearly 3960 points, and growth stocks such as the STAR Market and CSI 2000 performing better. Sectors such as commercial aerospace, large aircraft, and satellites led the gains [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - The prices of precious metals have diverged. Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, silver has continued to rise, with Shanghai silver rising more than 5% at night and breaking through 18,000 yuan to a record high. Platinum prices have fluctuated sharply and then risen, while palladium prices have dropped significantly. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the minimum opening order quantity and trading limits for platinum and palladium futures contracts. The Sino - US rare - earth magnet export issue has received a positive response. It is expected that the precious - metal market will experience increased volatility in the short term [4]. 3.1.3 Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper accelerated its upward movement on Thursday, while London copper was closed due to the holiday. The domestic spot market for electrolytic copper had light trading, with domestic trade copper at a discount of 330 yuan/ton. The LME inventory remained at 157,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory remained at 479,000 tons. Macroscopically, the stability of the FOMC voting committee may lead to Powell's early resignation, and Trump may advocate for a dovish Fed chair. The Bank of Japan may further raise interest rates in 2026. Industrially, the union of a copper mine in Chile may go on strike. It is expected that copper prices will remain strong at a high level in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,305 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 0.67%. The LME was closed, and the spot price decreased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 217,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 15,000 tons. The continuous new high of copper prices provides impetus for aluminum prices, but the fundamental driving force is weak, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [8]. 3.1.5 Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly on Thursday. The spot market had light trading, and the inventory decreased to 114,700 tons, providing support for zinc prices. However, with the opening of the zinc - ore import window and the approaching of the downstream consumption off - season, it is difficult to provide upward driving force. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will oscillate mainly [9][10]. 3.1.6 Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly on Thursday. The spot market had light trading, and the inventory decreased to 17,900 tons, remaining at a low level within the year. The supply of primary and secondary lead refineries has increased, but it has not been reflected in the inventory. The lead price's upward trend has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high [11]. 3.1.7 Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated strongly during the day and declined slightly at night on Thursday. The US has ended the chip trade investigation against China, and no additional tariffs will be imposed on Chinese chips in the next 18 months. The market lacks external - market guidance, and the downstream consumption has a negative feedback. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate this week, and the tin price has a large risk of high - level adjustment [12]. 3.1.8 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon oscillated narrowly on Thursday. The spot price in the East China region was basically stable, and the social inventory decreased to 553,000 tons last week. The supply side is converging, and the demand side has different situations in each link. The industrial - silicon spot market has stabilized due to the rebound of futures prices. It is expected that the futures price will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term [13][14]. 3.1.9 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillated on Thursday. The spot trading volume was 82,500 tons. The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, the total inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the consumption of building materials decreased by 3.2% week - on - week, while that of plates increased by 1.4% week - on - week. The overall supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that steel prices will oscillate weakly [15]. 3.1.10 Iron Ore - Iron - ore futures oscillated and adjusted on Thursday. The port - spot trading volume was 1.34 million tons. The supply is still at a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating. The demand of steel mills is weakening, and the terminal demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the futures price will be under pressure and oscillate [16]. 3.1.11 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Coking - coal and coke futures oscillated and adjusted on Thursday. The production of coking coal has decreased due to annual maintenance, and the downstream acceptance is not strong. The profit of coke enterprises has shrunk, and the procurement of raw coal is cautious. It is expected that the double - coking market will oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. 3.1.12 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal (Bean and Rapeseed Meal) - On Thursday, the 05 - contract of soybean meal closed up 0.77% at 2,760 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract of rapeseed meal closed up 0.04% at 2,352 yuan/ton. CBOT soybeans were closed for the holiday. Argentine farmers' soybean sales are accelerating. The weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area is good, while the weather in the Argentine soybean - producing area may turn dry. It is expected that the domestic soybean - meal futures will oscillate in the short term [18][19]. 3.1.13 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 05 - contract of palm oil closed up 0.31% at 8,542 yuan/ton. According to the ITS data, Malaysia's palm - oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared with the same period last month. The RMB exchange rate is strengthening. The export demand for palm oil is slightly increasing, and the short - position reduction of palm oil has a weakening rebound. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate in the short term [20]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing data of major futures markets on December 25, including the closing price, change, change percentage, total trading volume, total open interest, and price unit of contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [21] 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents the industrial data of various metals on December 25 and 24, including the price, inventory, and other data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, soybean meal, etc. [22][25][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the strategic importance of copper in the context of global energy transition and industrial recovery, with a bullish outlook on copper prices due to supply constraints and increasing demand [1][3]. - Jefferies' report indicates a significant decline in global copper production in Q3 2025, with a 2.1% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 3.6% decrease year-on-year, marking a recent low in quarterly production [2]. - The report highlights that major copper mines are facing operational challenges, leading to production shortfalls, particularly with the Grasberg mine planning a complete shutdown in Q4, which will exacerbate supply constraints [2][4]. Group 2 - The supply-demand gap in the copper market is widening, entering a "tight balance" phase, driven by weak supply growth and steady demand expansion [3][4]. - Jefferies forecasts a global copper market deficit of 300,000 tons in 2025, escalating to 866,000 tons in 2026, indicating a persistent supply shortfall even under moderate GDP growth scenarios [4]. - Demand for copper is primarily driven by three key sectors: electric vehicles, renewable energy, and power grid construction, with significant increases expected in copper usage in these areas by 2030 [6][8]. Group 3 - Investment opportunities are identified in a basket of copper mining stocks, focusing on companies with resource advantages and cost control capabilities [10]. - In the Chinese market, key investment targets include Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining, both of which are well-positioned to benefit from rising copper prices and production capacity [10][11]. - In the North American and European markets, Freeport-McMoRan and Anglo American are highlighted for their strong positions and potential for performance recovery due to the tight copper market [12].

Core Insights - The essence of the article emphasizes that Chinese enterprises in Africa are focused on "blood production" rather than "blood extraction," highlighting a transformative approach to resource development that fosters mutual growth and social development [1] Group 1: Resource Development and Policy Changes - Africa holds approximately 30% of the world's mineral reserves, including 95% of chromium and 90% of platinum group metals, which are crucial for human civilization [3] - The concept of "resource curse" is challenged as African nations reassess their resource development models, leading to revised mining laws that increase government equity [3] - The African Mining Vision, adopted by the African Union in 2009, provides a common framework for resource development planning across member states [3] Group 2: Sino-African Cooperation and Investment - The narrative of Sino-African mining cooperation is evolving towards a new paradigm characterized by diversity, mutual benefit, and sustainable development [5] - South Africa is developing an investment cooperation model that includes government, businesses, and communities, emphasizing localization and multi-stakeholder benefits [7] - Chinese investors are noted for their understanding of local policies, such as the Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) in South Africa, which facilitates beneficial cooperation [7] Group 3: Local Capacity Building and Cultural Integration - Chinese enterprises are contributing to local capacity building through skills training and educational initiatives, transforming resource wealth into industrial capabilities [8][10] - The integration of Chinese traditional culture in local communities, such as during festive events, fosters a sense of connection and mutual understanding [12] - The mining sector serves as a testing ground for Chinese companies' overseas strategies, promoting a cooperative model that aligns with national development goals and emphasizes human connections and cultural integration [12][13]

Core Insights - The essence of the article emphasizes that Chinese enterprises in Africa are focused on "blood production" rather than "blood extraction," highlighting a transformative approach to resource development that fosters mutual growth and social development [1] Group 1: Resource Development and Economic Transformation - Africa holds approximately 30% of the world's mineral reserves, including 95% of chromium and 90% of platinum group metals, which are crucial for human civilization [2] - The concept of "resource curse" is challenged, as African nations are revising mining laws to increase government equity and ensure fairer resource distribution [2] - The establishment of the China-Africa Cooperation Forum has led to deeper and broader cooperation, with Chinese mining companies exemplifying this strategy through local initiatives in Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Zimbabwe [2] Group 2: Collaborative Investment Models - South Africa is developing an investment cooperation model that includes government, businesses, and communities, emphasizing localization and mutual benefits [4] - Chinese investors are noted for their understanding of local policies, which facilitates beneficial partnerships [4] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has increased export taxes to encourage local processing, while Zimbabwe has imposed export bans to promote local industry [4] Group 3: Building Trust and Communication - Establishing a non-zero-sum network is crucial, where communication and trust-building are emphasized to resolve misunderstandings and foster collaboration [7] - A coalition of global mining giants has formed to address common challenges, transitioning from competition to collective development [7] Group 4: Cultural Integration and Community Engagement - The highest form of symbiosis is achieved through cultural integration and mutual respect, with Chinese companies fostering harmonious relationships with local workers [8] - Systematic skills training and community engagement initiatives are helping local workers become skilled professionals, enhancing their socio-economic status [8] - Cultural activities, such as traditional Chinese celebrations, are bridging cultural gaps and fostering community ties [8] Group 5: Sustainable Globalization - The experiences in Africa provide valuable insights for Chinese companies in sectors like electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and digital economy, demonstrating that genuine engagement and symbiosis are pathways to sustainable globalization [9] - The mission of Chinese enterprises is to establish a strong foundation in Africa, ensuring a lasting presence and contribution to local development [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Chinese enterprises in Africa are fostering a model of "blood production" rather than "blood extraction," focusing on sustainable development and cooperation rather than mere resource exploitation [1][2]. Group 1: From "Resource Curse" to Self-Development - Africa holds approximately 30% of the world's mineral reserves, including 95% of chromium and 90% of platinum group metals, along with significant amounts of cobalt, lithium, and copper [5]. - The resource wealth in Africa has often led to suffering due to unfair systems and relationships, prompting African nations to reassess their resource development models since the 21st century [5]. - The African Union's 2009 "African Mining Vision" provides a common foundation for countries to develop and implement mineral resource development plans [5]. - Chinese mining companies are exemplifying this strategy through various initiatives, such as enhancing copper mining efficiency in Zambia and localizing cobalt processing in the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Group 2: Building a "Non-Zero-Sum" Network - South Africa is creating an investment cooperation model that includes government, enterprises, and communities, emphasizing "local integration" and "mutual benefits" [10]. - The revised mining laws in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe aim to increase local processing and retain more value within the country [10]. - Chinese companies are adapting to local policies, such as Huayou Cobalt's investment in lithium processing in Zimbabwe, which aligns with local regulations and creates industrial value and job opportunities [10][11]. Group 3: "Brotherly" Relationships - The highest form of symbiotic relationships involves the integration of people and cultures, with Chinese enterprises fostering harmonious interactions and knowledge sharing with local workers [15][17]. - Systematic skills training has enabled local workers to become technical backbones, with social labor programs opening pathways to higher education for their children [15]. - Cultural activities, such as traditional Chinese celebrations, have helped dissolve cultural boundaries and foster community engagement [17][18]. - The mining sector serves as a testing ground for Chinese enterprises' overseas strategies, demonstrating that genuine "rooting" and seeking "symbiosis" is essential for sustainable globalization [18].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 铜：外强内弱，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 96,100 伦铜3M电子盘 12,133 | 2.31% 0.65% | 95020 - | -1.12% - | | 较前日变动 | 昨日成交 | | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 558,648 | 297,908 | 658,927 | 23,257 | | 伦铜3M电子盘 18,195 | | -8,111 | 340,000 | 2,248 | | 昨日期货库存 | | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | 沪铜 52,222 | | 2,679 | - | - | | 伦铜 157,025 | | -1,550 | 29.63% | -1.19% | | LME铜升贴水 | | 昨日价差 13.16 | 前日价差 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 铜价走高 持货商集中抛售 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-24，沪铜主力合约开于 94850元/吨，收于 96100元/吨，较前一交易日收盘2.31%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 95,910元/吨，收于 95,020 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.25%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货对当月2601合约贴水380至240元/吨，均价贴水310元/吨，较昨日下跌95元。1# 电解铜价格为94420-94690元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约于94800-95230元/吨区间窄幅整理，尾盘回落至93800元附近。 铜价再创历史新高，一度突破95000元大关。受年末资金压力影响，持货商早市集中抛售，市场买盘乏力，主流平 水铜贴水已降至300元/吨以下，为今年5月下旬以来首次。高铜价已导致部分下游企业停产，预计今日贴水或将继 续扩大。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，地缘方面，乌克兰总统泽连斯基公布俄乌"和平计划"草案20点细节，包括乌克兰加入欧盟、向 乌克兰提供类似北约第五条集体防御条款的保障、乌克兰将尽快举行选举等。但关键的领土问题仍未 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2][4]. - Copper: The external market is strong while the domestic market is weak, which restricts price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Trading in a range [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2][17]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range; Alumina is bottom - sideways; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: The overseas market is closed, and a correction is to be watched out for [2][22]. - Palladium: Investment sentiment has shifted, and a large - scale decline is expected [2][23]. - Nickel: There is capital game on the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and there are disturbances from news about Indonesian nickel mines [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2602 showed varying degrees of increase, with daily increases of 1.34%, 1.44%, and 0.77% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 decreased by 2,375, while that of Comex Gold 2602 increased by 42,965 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1,995 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 114,168 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy; the Beijing property market has new policies; the US employment market has warmed up [4]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2602 all rose, with daily increases of 1.50%, 1.52%, and 3.65% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 474,555 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 1,805 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) decreased by 3,083,409 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, and the Silver LOF hit the daily limit again during the session [4][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 2.31%, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.65%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 297,908, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 8,111 [8]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper inventory increased by 2,679 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1,550 tons [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China's policy, Beijing's property market policy, and the US employment market situation; Glencore acquired a copper project in Peru; Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners; Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased; China's copper ore imports increased [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.61%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 0.60%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 37,673, and the LME Zinc trading volume increased by 2,888 [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc inventory increased by 1,068 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 7,900 tons [11]. - **News**: The People's Bank of China's policy and hints from the US Treasury Secretary about the Fed's future direction [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 1.35%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.66%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 23,412, and the LME Lead trading volume increased by 2,053 [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 152 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 4,200 tons [14]. - **News**: Similar to copper, including the People's Bank of China's policy, Beijing's property market policy, and the US employment market situation [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 1.27%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.25%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 11,222, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 [17]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 655 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 50 tons [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, and France passed a short - term budget to avoid a government shutdown [17][18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22,330 yuan/ton, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,957 US dollars/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 85,119. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,554 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inventory and Cost**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,823.24 yuan/ton [20]. - **News**: The US dollar may have its worst year since 2003, and the Japanese finance minister hinted at possible intervention in the yen [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium futures showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum and NYMEX Platinum decreased, while the trading volume of NYMEX Palladium increased [23]. - **Inventory and ETF**: The platinum ETF inventory increased by 5,271 ounces, and the palladium ETF inventory decreased by 384 ounces [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: News about international relations and China's central bank's policy [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,075 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,095,331 [28]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, and Indonesia implemented sanctions on mining companies and adjusted policies related to nickel mines [28][29][31].