1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that oils will lack driving factors and maintain range - bound oscillations. For protein meals, it is advisable to buy on dips. [8][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy 3.1.1 Oils Main Viewpoints - **Core Logic**: The good rate of US soybeans remains high. In August, weather has a significant impact. Rainfall in the main US soybean - producing areas in the next 15 days is slightly lower than normal, and soybeans are expected to grow normally. Brazil's soybean export peak is approaching, and exports are expected to decrease. US tariff policies suppress soybean exports. Argentina will lower soybean export tariffs, squeezing US soybean demand. CBOT soybeans are weak but with limited downside. Palm oil is in the seasonal production increase period, with increased production and weak exports in Malaysia in July, indicating significant inventory accumulation. Indonesia's palm oil production recovery is unfulfilled, and inventory is low. Domestic palm oil is slowly accumulating inventory, and future purchases are few. Palm oil is affected by crude oil. Canadian rapeseed is expected to grow normally. Australia and China are close to an agreement on rapeseed exports. Rapeseed inventory is falling, and imports are expected to increase slightly in August. [8] - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery is 3,777 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 121 yuan/ton. The import cost of palm oil (August shipment) is 9,340 yuan/ton, with a spot profit of - 506 yuan/ton and an August shipment spot - market profit of - 134 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) is 4,942 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 295 yuan/ton and a spot - market crushing profit of 108 yuan/ton. [8] - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in August is 10.69 million tons, rapeseed is 195,000 tons, and palm oil is 180,000 tons. [8] - **Demand**: In July, the total domestic sales of bulk soybean oil from key oil mills were 463,200 tons, a 20.09% increase from the previous month. Palm oil sales were 10,376 tons, a 62.20% decrease from June. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil from coastal oil mills was 123,400 tons, a decrease of 15,900 tons from the previous month. [8] - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in key regions nationwide was 2.3618 million tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous week and a 17.10% increase year - on - year. [8] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to conduct short - term operations within the oscillation range for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage. [8] 3.1.2 Protein Meals Main Viewpoints - **Core Logic**: Similar to oils, US soybeans are in a good growth situation, and Brazilian and US soybeans face export challenges. In August, soybean arrivals will be large, oil mill operating rates will remain high, and soybean meal will accumulate inventory. Pig farming is promoting the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing future demand. Canadian rapeseed is expected to grow normally. Australia and China are close to an agreement on rapeseed exports. Recent rapeseed arrivals are few, and coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory is low, but imported rapeseed meal inventory is high. Rapeseed imports are expected to increase slightly in August, and the operating rate may recover. [11] - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery is 3,777 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 121 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) is 4,942 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 295 yuan/ton and a spot - market crushing profit of 108 yuan/ton. [11] - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in August is 10.69 million tons, and rapeseed is 195,000 tons. [11] - **Demand**: In July, the total sales of soybean meal were 4.0215 million tons, a decrease of 954,800 tons from the previous month, a 19.19% decrease; a year - on - year increase of 1.0297 million tons, a 34.42% increase. From Week 27 to Week 31, the pick - up volume of rapeseed meal from coastal oil mills was 137,900 tons, and the consumption of imported rapeseed meal (Nantong) was 119,500 tons. [11] - **Inventory**: In Week 30, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0431 million tons, a 4.48% increase from the previous week and a 22.50% decrease year - on - year. It is expected that soybean meal will gradually accumulate inventory in August. In July, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were stable at around 8 days. In Week 30, the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was 19,000 tons, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory was 663,600 tons. [11] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to buy on dips for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage. [11] 3.2 2025 July Oils and Meals Market Review 3.2.1 Oils Market Review - **Market Trend**: In July, the oils sector oscillated strongly. The palm oil led the increase due to factors such as Malaysia's reverse - seasonal production decrease in June, strong exports and low inventory in Indonesia, and biodiesel news. The CBOT soybeans were weak, but US biodiesel news boosted US soybean oil. The rapeseed futures price oscillated, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory fell from a high level. The oils sector rose 3.29%, the palm oil main contract rose 6.84%, the soybean oil main contract rose 2.61%, and the rapeseed oil main contract rose 1.01%. [15] - **Spot Price**: In July, the spot prices of the three major oils oscillated strongly, with palm oil having the largest increase. On July 31, 2025, the mainstream price of rapeseed oil was 9,632 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton monthly; the average price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,372 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton monthly; the national average price of 24 - degree palm oil was 8,993 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton monthly. [24] 3.2.2 Protein Meals Market Review - **Market Trend**: In July, soybean meal and rapeseed meal first rose and then fell. It was expected that rapeseed imports would be few from July to August, and the operating rate of oil mills would be low. Aquaculture was in the peak season, and the demand for rapeseed meal was strong. The inventory of coastal oil mill rapeseed meal was low, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory fell from a high level. Rapeseed meal was strong. In late July, CBOT soybeans continued to decline, and the demand for soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased due to pig farming regulation. [28] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of rapeseed meal increased significantly due to high demand and low inventory. The spot price of soybean meal oscillated strongly under the drive of rapeseed meal, with an average price of 2,945 yuan/ton on July 31, 2025, up 43 yuan/ton monthly; the average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,600 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton monthly. [31] 3.3 Oils and Oilseeds Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 International Situation - **US Soybeans**: The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is normal. The good rate is high, with a flowering rate of 76%, a pod - setting rate of 41%, and a good rate of 70% as of July 27. The soybean crushing volume in June decreased month - on - month but was at a high level in the same period of previous years, and the crushing profit recovered from a low level. [36][40][44] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: In July, Brazil's soybean export volume was 12.06 million tons, a 10.53% decrease from the previous month and a 25.63% increase year - on - year. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans continued to rise. [47] - **Argentine Soybeans**: In June, Argentina's soybean export volume was 1 million tons, a 18.10% decrease from the previous month and a 29.11% decrease year - on - year. Argentina will lower the soybean export tariff from 33% to 26%. [50] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons due to a surge in exports. [55] - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In June, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.6923 million tons, a 4.48% decrease from the previous month and a 4.77% increase year - on - year. In July, the production increased 7.07% month - on - month, exports were weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. [60][64] - **Canadian Rapeseed**: The weather in the main Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is normal. As of July 28, the growth of rapeseed in Saskatchewan was generally in good condition, and the good rate of rapeseed in Alberta was 60.3%. As of July 27, the rapeseed export volume decreased 72.8% from the previous week to 55,100 tons. In June, the rapeseed crushing volume increased 3% from the previous month. [67][71][76] 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - **Soybeans**: It is expected that 10.69 million tons of soybeans will arrive in August. As of the 30th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of oil mills was 645,590 tons, up 0.52% from the previous week. In July, the soybean import cost oscillated, and the crushing profit increased slightly. In July, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume was 10.1292 million tons, and it is estimated to be 10.15 million tons in August. [81][85][94] - **Palm Oil**: The import cost of palm oil increased in July. The import profit improved. It is estimated that the palm oil import volume in August will be 180,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from July. [98][102][106] - **Rapeseed**: The import cost of Canadian rapeseed oscillated in July. The crushing profit of imported rapeseed increased in terms of spot profit and decreased in terms of spot - market profit. It is estimated that the rapeseed arrival volume in August will be 195,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons from July. In July, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills increased. [111][114][123] - **Inventory and Sales of Oils**: As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3618 million tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous week. The inventory trends of the three major oils diverged, with soybean oil and palm oil accumulating inventory and rapeseed oil inventory falling from a high level. In July, the sales of soybean oil increased, while the sales of rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased. [127][133][136] - **Inventory and Sales of Protein Meals**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased rapidly. In July, the sales of soybean meal decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills recovered from a low level, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory was still high. The consumption of rapeseed meal increased due to aquaculture demand. [140][144][156]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Hongchang Electric Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Hongchang Technology") announced plans to engage in commodity futures hedging with a maximum trading guarantee amount of 40 million yuan to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations on its operations [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy - The primary goal of the futures hedging business is to stabilize the cost structure of its main operations and enhance the stability of profitability by utilizing the price discovery and risk hedging mechanisms of the futures market [1][2]. - Hongchang Technology's direct material costs constitute a significant portion of its main business costs, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in raw material prices, which include enameled wire, plastic raw materials (PP/PA), and metal components [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Analysts indicate that the supply of copper concentrate has been tight, with smelting and processing fees (TC) declining to negative levels, while demand for copper continues to grow due to the development of the new energy industry and domestic policy expectations [1][2]. - The copper price is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short to medium term, supported by tight supply and expanding applications in solar, wind, and electric vehicle sectors [2][3]. - The upcoming traditional peak season ("Golden September and Silver October") may lead to further price increases for copper in the latter part of the third quarter and early fourth quarter [2].

"钢材需求依然主要靠制造业支撑，板材7月份表观消费量同比增长1.88%，建材则下降了8.22%，预计8- 9月这一格局仍会持续。"刘慧峰具体分析称，但8月之后国内耐用品消费以及出口均存在边际走弱风 险，工业企业利润的走弱也会压制制造业投资。此外，价格下跌后，投机性需求的减弱也会进一步加剧 钢材需求的阶段性下行。 反观供应端，在钢价回升、利润转好的背景下，8月钢企主动减产意愿偏低，供应调整或需要更多关注 政策性限产的可能性，产量下降的速率或偏慢。 新华财经北京8月5日电 在政策预期利多提振下，7月国内钢材市场一改6月低迷，钢价强势反弹并在月 末一举刷新近五个月新高。8月伊始，虽然钢价较高点有所回落，但仍保持年内高位区间。 不过，东海期货在最新月度展望中提示，由于8月仍处于钢材需求淡季，加上月内可能缺少宏观政策的 利多，随着钢材市场回归基本面逻辑，钢价或存阶段性回调可能。 "继6月触底之后，7月份黑色板块呈现加速上涨态势，这主要是受到宏观预期和成本支撑两大因素共同 推动，加之投机性需求回升，行情走势呈现明显的预期推动特点。"东海期货黑色研究员刘慧峰认为， 但进入8月，一方面，钢材需求端需关注制造业和出口边际走弱的 ...

Core Insights - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the China Bulk Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for July 2025 is 111.4 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [1] - The index has shown positive growth for three consecutive months, indicating optimistic expectations among enterprises and a stable recovery in the market, maintaining an overall expansion trend [1] - The implementation of national policies aimed at reducing internal competition and enhancing macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustments is expected to support a continued stable improvement in the bulk commodity market [1] Industry Analysis - Despite the positive trends, the global bulk commodity prices are experiencing increased volatility, and there are significant external uncertainties and instabilities [1] - Certain industries are still facing challenges such as insufficient effective demand and increased operational pressures, highlighting the need for further efforts to solidify the economic recovery and stimulate internal growth and innovation [1] - The bulk commodity circulation industry plays a crucial role in expanding domestic demand, stabilizing growth, and promoting development, which is essential for the overall economic landscape [1]

Group 1 - The new Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation has officially come into effect, establishing new rules for global investors and enhancing market transparency [1][3] - The regulation requires stablecoin issuers to have a minimum capital of 25 million HKD and to maintain 100% reserve in real assets, significantly increasing the barrier to entry for new players [3] - Retail investors now have the right to redeem their stablecoins at face value within five days, with severe penalties for non-compliance, including fines up to 10 million HKD and imprisonment for up to 10 years [3] Group 2 - Major financial institutions like Standard Chartered and JD Technology are competing for licenses under the new regulation, as the cross-border payment market is valued at 26.7 trillion USD [3][4] - The compliance costs for stablecoin transactions are expected to drop to below 1%, making them three times cheaper than traditional bank transfers, creating significant opportunities for retail investors [3] - Companies in the A-share market, such as Yuxin Technology and Zhongke Jincai, are positioned to benefit from the demand for technology solutions related to stablecoin issuance, with orders extending into next year [4] Group 3 - The market for Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization is projected to reach 16 trillion USD by 2030, presenting lucrative investment opportunities for companies like Shanghai Steel Union that manage large data assets [4] - New scams related to "stablecoin investment" have emerged, with warnings issued by local authorities, highlighting the need for investors to be cautious and informed [5] - The regulation is seen as a reset of the investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of compliance and informed decision-making in financial innovation [5]

Group 1 - The "Regulations on Government Data Sharing" will be implemented on August 1, 2025, aiming to enhance the security, order, and efficiency of government data sharing, thereby improving digital governance and public service effectiveness [1] - The regulations fill a legislative gap in China's government data sharing sector and establish a clear management system, addressing the "data island" issue [1] - The regulations are expected to significantly benefit the government data market by optimizing sharing processes and improving data supply efficiency [1] Group 2 - Companies involved in public data authorized operations include China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, Deep Sanda A, Yihualu, Taiji Co., and Guangdian Yuntong [2] - In the financial services sector, companies such as Hengsheng Electronics and Zhongke Ruankai are noted [2] - In the trade and circulation sector, Shanghai Steel Union is mentioned, while in healthcare, companies like Zhongke Jiangnan, Chuangye Huikang, Jiuyuan Yinhai, and Wanda Information are highlighted [2] - In transportation, Shenzhou Holdings and COSCO Shipping Technology are identified [2]

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate futures prices have been on a continuous rise, with a maximum intraday increase of 7.86% on July 24, reaching 77,140 yuan/ton, and closing at 76,680 yuan/ton, up over 20% since the beginning of the month [1] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in Shanghai has rebounded to 70,150 yuan/ton as of July 24, marking a 14.9% increase since the start of July [1] - The price increase is attributed to a combination of policy guidance, supply adjustments, and improved demand, with policies aimed at reducing excess capacity and increasing strategic reserves [1] Group 2 - Local authorities in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, have mandated eight lithium mining companies to compile resource verification reports by September 30, tightening regulations on lithium resource development [2] - Cangge Mining's subsidiary has been ordered to cease illegal mining activities and rectify compliance issues before resuming production [2] - Industry experts suggest that the market is nearing a clearing phase, with prices expected to stabilize if further capacity reductions and substantial downstream demand materialize [2] Group 3 - Several lithium-related companies have reported positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, with Tianqi Lithium expecting a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan, a turnaround from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the previous year [3] - Welling New Energy anticipates a net profit of 0 to 5 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 51 million yuan, due to diversification into multi-metal mining [3] - Tibet Summit Resources expects a net profit of 204 million to 306 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.31% to 138.96%, while Cangge Mining forecasts a profit of 1.75 billion to 1.9 billion yuan, up 34.93% to 46.49% [3] Group 4 - The positive earnings outlook for lithium companies is driven by cost optimization and price rebounds, although there are concerns that supply-side stabilization could pressure prices and affect second-half performance [4]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The report highlights the Chinese government's efforts to combat "involution" competition across various industries, which may lead to a reversal in price expectations for related sectors [3] - The semiconductor industry has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, indicating potential for new highs driven by AI market trends [3] - The lithium carbonate price has increased significantly, with a 12.2% rise in July, driven by policy changes, supply constraints, and strong demand from energy storage and new energy vehicles [7] Group 2: Company Analysis - Tesla's Q2 2025 financial report shows a 12% year-over-year revenue decline to $22.496 billion, with automotive revenue dropping 16% to $16.661 billion, marking the largest quarterly operating profit decline in five years [6] - The decline in Tesla's market share from a peak of 15% in 2020 to 7.6% in June 2025 provides opportunities for domestic electric vehicle manufacturers [6] - Pop Mart's revenue growth is projected to exceed 200% in H1 2025, with adjusted profit growth expected to be at least 350%, supported by an expanding retail network and improved operational strategies [9]

Group 1: Market Trends - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices have been rising, with the main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closing at 76,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,300 yuan/ton or 7.21% in a single day, reaching a new high [1] - Since hitting a low on June 23, the contract has seen a cumulative increase of over 20%, with the spot market also rising; as of July 24, the domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate price was 70,150 yuan/ton, up 17% from June 23 [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau issued a notice on July 14, requiring eight local lithium mining companies to prepare resource verification reports by September 30 due to issues related to "bypassing approval authority and overstepping procedures," indicating increased regulatory scrutiny on lithium resource development [1] - On July 17, Cangge Mining announced that its subsidiary, Geermu Cangge Lithium Industry, was ordered to suspend operations and rectify violations related to unauthorized lithium resource extraction [1] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - Jiangte Electric announced on July 21 that its subsidiary Yichun Yinli would start maintenance on all lithium salt production lines on July 25, expected to last about 26 days, further heightening market expectations of a contraction in lithium carbonate supply [2] - The rebound in lithium carbonate prices is attributed not only to production cuts but also to domestic policies aimed at preventing "involution" in the new energy industry, promoting healthy competition and reducing price wars [2] Group 4: Company Performance - Leading companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium saw their stocks hit the daily limit up; Tianqi Lithium expects a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan for the first half of the year, a significant recovery from a loss of 5.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [3] - Ganfeng Lithium anticipates a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a reduction from a loss of 760 million yuan in the previous year [3] Group 5: Market Outlook - There are differing opinions on the sustainability of price increases; while demand remains primarily driven by necessity, many companies are reluctant to accept high lithium prices, leading to a sluggish spot market [3] - Despite rising lithium salt prices pushing up costs, new capacities from South American salt lakes and African mines are expected to be released in the second half of the year, maintaining a long-term oversupply scenario [3] - Industry insiders predict that the supply-demand gap will narrow by 2025, achieving a balance by 2026, followed by a state of tight balance and eventual shortages [3]

Macro Summary - As of the end of June, the total installed power generation capacity in the country reached 3.65 billion kilowatts, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.7%. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment from January to June were 1504 hours, a decrease of 162 hours compared to the same period last year [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission is actively taking practical measures to improve the collaborative development system between state-owned and private enterprises, aiming to mitigate excessive competition and expand cooperation in the industrial supply chain [4] - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration jointly issued a notice regarding tax policies for goods entering and exiting the Hainan Free Trade Port [4] Industry Dynamics - The upcoming Global RWA Data Industry Conference will establish the "RWA Global Industry Alliance" to initiate the construction of international standards. Related stocks include GCL-Poly Energy (002015) and Tianyuan Dike (300047) [6] - China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. has been established in Shanghai, marking an acceleration in the development of the nuclear fusion industry in China. Related stocks include Yongding Co., Ltd. (600105) and Baoli Electric (600468) [6] - The Shanghai Data Exchange held a closed-door seminar titled "New Opportunities in the Capital Market: RDA," introducing the new RDA paradigm for the first time. Related stocks include Shanghai Steel Union (300226) and COSCO Shipping Technology (002401) [6] Company Focus - International Medical (000516) is enhancing its refined operational capabilities and leveraging differentiated advantages to continuously strengthen its overall strength [8] - Funeng Technology (688567) has secured a designated SPS battery cooperation with GAC Group, and its semi-solid batteries have achieved large-scale shipments [8] - AVIC Heavy Machinery (600765) has incorporated a 30% cash dividend minimum into its articles of association, providing a rigid safeguard for shareholder returns [8] - Snowman Group (002639) has proactively developed technical solutions for the concrete temperature control needs of major hydropower projects, which will provide supporting services in subsequent construction [8] Market Review and Outlook - On July 23, the market experienced a high and then a pullback, with the three major indices showing mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.37% and the ChiNext Index was down 0.01%. Over 4000 stocks in the market declined [10] - The total trading volume for the day was 1.86 trillion, a decrease of 28.4 billion compared to the previous trading day. The market showed signs of divergence as the indices reached new highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing the 3600-point mark [10] - The market sentiment was cautious, with a lack of leading stocks to drive short-term enthusiasm. The super hydropower concept stocks showed significant divergence, while the financial sector saw activity from brokers, banks, and insurance companies, although most retreated in the afternoon [10] - Technically, after the Shanghai Composite Index's attempt to reach 3600 points, it closed with a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure above. The short-term moving averages remain in a bullish arrangement, but the MACD indicator shows a reduction in upward momentum [11]