核心观点 政策 本周中央经济工作会议召开，关于房地产的表述有两部分。一部分在坚持内需主 导，建设强大国内市场中提到高质量发展城市更新。另一部分在坚持守牢底线， 积极稳妥化解重点领域风险中提到着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度 改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 房地产行业第 50 周周报（2025 年 12 月 6 日-2025 年 12 月 12 日） 新房二手房成交同比降幅收窄；中央经济工作会议提出"因城 施策去库存" 新房成交面积同环比降幅均收窄；二手房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄；新 房库存面积环比上升、同比下降；去化周期环比下降、同比上升。 投资建议 风险提示： 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/10） 《单月销售与投资降幅扩大；开竣工降幅虽收窄， 但仍处于历史低位》（2025/07/17） 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续扩大；一线城市二手 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market while managing risks, with a focus on dynamic adjustments in supply and demand to address the current market imbalance [1][2] - The policy framework for 2026 aims to stabilize the market and prevent risks, transitioning from "digesting inventory" to a more direct approach of "reducing inventory" [2] - The new supply focus is on improving the quality of newly built residential properties, encouraging a shift from scale expansion to quality enhancement in the industry [3] Group 2 - The policy tools will include fiscal and monetary measures, with fiscal policies supporting affordable housing and urban renewal, while monetary policies will maintain a moderately loose stance [3][4] - There will be a combination of stock policies and incremental tools, such as reforms in the provident fund system and exploring special loans to support urban renewal and affordable housing construction [4] - The long-term industry transformation is inevitable, with a shift from reliance on land finance to high-quality development, focusing on areas like REITs expansion and green buildings [6] Group 3 - The policy space will see regional differentiation, with potential easing of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and support for demand release and inventory digestion in third- and fourth-tier cities [5] - The real estate policy for 2026 will revolve around "stabilizing the market, reducing inventory, and improving supply," with a focus on the implementation of stock policies like provident fund reforms and affordable housing acquisitions [6]

Core Insights - Beike's subsidiary, Beihome, has launched a C2M full-chain solution aimed at transforming the real estate market by better aligning housing supply with market demand [1] - The real estate market is shifting from a seller's market to a buyer's market, with second-hand home transactions in key cities rising to approximately 73%, and in some cities exceeding 80% [1] - The C2M model leverages big data and AI to analyze customer needs and predict housing price trends before project development, providing solutions for product positioning, unit mix, and pricing strategies [1] Industry Trends - The real estate market is experiencing a significant transition, characterized by longer decision-making cycles for buyers and an increase in property viewings [1] - The supply of housing continues to grow, indicating a shift in the supply-demand relationship within the market [1] - Beihome has implemented 17 projects in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, collaborating with notable developers like China Overseas Land & Investment and China State Construction Engineering [2] Challenges - Experts highlight that the C2M model may face common challenges such as funding pressures, supply chain integration, and brand competition, which could be exacerbated in the real estate sector due to its high product value and complex supply chains [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the launch of the high-end residential project "Financial City·Beicheng S1" by Beike's subsidiary Beihome, which has garnered significant industry attention due to its innovative design and technology [1] Group 1: Project Overview - Beicheng S1 features a pioneering architectural style, three-dimensional landscape design, and comprehensive smart home technology [1] - The project is based on a C2M (Customer-to-Manufacturer) model, introducing a series of innovations that differentiate it from traditional residential offerings [1] Group 2: Industry Response - Following the opening of the Beicheng S1 demonstration area, over 50 real estate developers, including major players like China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke, and others, visited for inspection [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Real Estate - **Focus**: Chinese mainland and Hong Kong real estate markets - **Outlook for 2026**: The industry is expected to explore new development models under strong policy support, despite facing challenges. Structural opportunities from "good houses" and "good cities" are emerging [1][6][10]. Core Insights and Arguments Chinese Mainland Real Estate - **Sales Forecast**: The total sales area of commercial housing in China is projected to be between 900 million to 950 million square meters in 2026, down from approximately 970 million square meters in 2024. The expected sales amount is around 10 to 11 trillion RMB, including 8 to 9 trillion RMB from residential sales [1][11]. - **Investment Preference**: The preferred investment ranking is as follows: state-owned enterprises (SOEs) or SOE-backed developers > leading private enterprises with land reserves in first and second-tier cities > other private developers [1][26]. - **Market Dynamics**: The market is transitioning from quantity expansion to quality improvement, with a focus on "good housing" standards. The demand is shifting towards improvement-type housing, which is expected to dominate the market [10][13]. Hong Kong Real Estate - **Market Recovery**: Key catalysts for recovery include improved macroeconomic uncertainty (notably interest rate cuts), significant policy easing, and a return of fundamental demand drivers. The recovery is expected to be gradual, with residential properties leading the way, followed by quality retail assets and core office spaces [3][37]. - **Rental Growth**: Residential rents are expected to increase by approximately 3% in 2026, with small to medium-sized unit prices rising by 5%. The retail sector is also anticipated to see moderate growth due to stabilizing local consumption and increased tourist arrivals [3][39]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to focus on residential recovery as a high-quality proxy, particularly in the context of the anticipated market rebound [3][37]. Additional Important Insights - **Policy Environment**: The current policy framework is expected to remain supportive, with a focus on maintaining a stable demand-side policy and normalizing supply-side regulations. The emphasis is on improving housing quality and service standards [10][12]. - **Market Segmentation**: The market is experiencing significant segmentation, with first and second-tier cities showing resilience while third and fourth-tier cities face structural adjustments. The share of sales in first and strong second-tier cities is expected to increase from 30% to 35-40% by 2026 [12][15]. - **Supply Dynamics**: New construction is projected to be between 550 million to 600 million square meters in 2026, reflecting cautious market expectations and cash flow conditions among developers. This is expected to help digest existing inventory levels [21][22]. - **Financial Health of Developers**: The industry is shifting towards a focus on cash flow management, with a significant emphasis on achieving positive operating cash flow as a key indicator of operational capability. Developers with strong cash flow management are likely to be favored by the market [24][25]. Conclusion The real estate industry in both the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong is at a pivotal point, with emerging opportunities driven by policy support and changing market dynamics. Investors are encouraged to adopt a selective approach, focusing on quality and location to capitalize on the anticipated recovery in the sector [25][26].

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Sector Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property Sector - **Event**: Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held on December 10-11, 2025 Key Points and Arguments 1. **Risk Management and Market Stabilization**: - The conference emphasized the need to take proactive steps to defuse risks in key areas and stabilize the property market through city-specific policies aimed at controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing existing supply [1][2][7] - The focus is on encouraging inventory purchases for social housing and deepening the reform of the housing provident fund [1][7] 2. **Policy Tone and Intentions**: - Compared to previous meetings, the tone in December 2025 is seen as more proactive than in April and July 2025, but less decisive than in December 2024 [2] - The language used indicates a shift from a strong push for stabilization to a more moderate approach, recognizing the imbalance of weak domestic demand against strong supply [2] 3. **Local Stimulus and Monetary Policy**: - A new round of local demand-side stimulus is anticipated, including home purchase and mortgage interest subsidies, although these are not expected to significantly alter home price expectations due to abundant supply [3] - There is a low likelihood of targeted monetary easing or pro-leverage initiatives in the near term, but urban renewals and REIT approvals are expected to accelerate [3] 4. **Market Reactions and Sales Outlook**: - The property sector experienced a share price correction in early December due to weak sales and price declines, particularly in Tier 1 cities, alongside expectations of policy easing following Vanke's debt extension [4] - A short-lived policy-driven rebound in share prices is expected, with continued soft sales projected for Q4 2025 and limited improvement in household confidence [4] 5. **Investment Recommendations**: - Analysts suggest late December as a better entry point for reviewing the sector after the recent price corrections, with top picks including Jinmao, C&D, and CRL [4] Other Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of stabilizing investment and resolving local government debt risks while maintaining a necessary fiscal deficit and ensuring stable economic growth [1][7] - The need for a moderate recovery in price levels and stabilization of investment from further decline was acknowledged, indicating a cautious approach to future developments in the property market [2][3] This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property sector, emphasizing risk management, policy intentions, and market dynamics.

Group 1: Macro and Market Overview - The financial data for November shows a recovery due to increased fiscal efforts, with social financing growth supported by accelerated government bond issuance and faster conversion of fiscal spending into general deposits [2] - A favorable liquidity environment is highlighted, with significant growth in corporate bond financing contributing positively to social financing [2] - The A-share market is expected to perform well in the upcoming year-end, supported by ongoing domestic economic policy efforts and historical trends indicating strong performance in the first year of the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans [3] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The secondary market for REITs has seen a decline in prices, with the weighted REITs index closing at 180.06 and a weekly return of -0.23% [5] - Credit bond issuance increased significantly, with 369 bonds issued totaling 459.51 billion yuan, a 35.34% increase from the previous period [6] - Investors are advised to adopt a comprehensive view when analyzing financial aggregate data, focusing on a balanced understanding of the market [4] Group 3: Industry-Specific Research - In the float glass industry, the trend of increasing concentration among leading companies is expected to continue, with recommendations to focus on Xinyi Glass and Qingdao Huadong Glass [10] - The photovoltaic glass sector is anticipated to see a clearing out of smaller companies at the industry cycle's bottom, leading to increased concentration among leading firms, with a focus on Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass Group [10] - The banking sector is experiencing a slowdown in credit expansion, with social financing in November at 2.5 trillion yuan, maintaining an 8.5% growth rate [11] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - Zhongyou Engineering has successfully launched a new material project, with projected net profits of 738 million yuan, 825 million yuan, and 929 million yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [20] - The company is rated as "buy" due to its strategic expansion into emerging business areas [20] - Hualan Biological is increasing its investment in innovative products and has a high dividend payout ratio, enhancing its long-term investment value [22]

Core Viewpoint - Beike Group's subsidiary, Beihome, emphasizes its focus on a light-asset model rather than becoming a developer, aiming to leverage its strengths in the real estate market [2][5]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Beihome's CEO Xu Wanggang stated that the decision to not pursue further self-operated projects is not due to poor market performance of existing projects in Chengdu and Shanghai, but rather a strategic shift to collaborate with more real estate partners [2][5]. - The company aims to focus on its C2M (Customer to Manufacturer) model, which is designed to better meet customer needs through comprehensive service offerings [2][4]. Group 2: Market Performance - As of December 11, the Beicheng S1 project in Chengdu achieved 20 signed contracts within a month of opening, ranking second in total signed contracts for high-end residential properties in the city for the year [2][4]. - The Shanghai Beilian C1 project also performed well, ranking third in sales area and number of units sold in November [2]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The real estate market has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market since 2021, leading to longer transaction cycles and increased sales costs for developers [3]. - Despite market challenges, high-quality properties continue to sell well, indicating a demand for good housing and services [3]. Group 4: Future Collaborations - Beihome is exploring new collaboration methods beyond traditional developers, including partnerships with city investment companies, construction firms, and financial investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - Beike Group's subsidiary, Beihome, emphasizes its focus on a light-asset model rather than becoming a developer, aiming to leverage its strengths in the real estate market [1][3] Group 1: Company Strategy - Beihome's CEO Xu Wanggang stated that the decision to not pursue self-operated projects is not due to poor market performance but rather a strategic shift to collaborate with developers [1][3] - The company aims to focus on its C2M (Customer to Manufacturer) model, which is designed to better meet customer needs through comprehensive services and partnerships with other real estate firms [1][2] - Beihome has launched its C2M positioning plan based on data and AI algorithms to predict customer preferences and guide product positioning [2] Group 2: Market Performance - As of December 11, the Beichen S1 project in Chengdu achieved 20 signed contracts within a month of opening, ranking second in total signed contracts for high-end residential properties in the city for 2025 [1][2] - The Shanghai Beilian C1 project also performed well, ranking third in sales area and number of units sold in November [1][2] Group 3: Future Collaborations - Beihome is exploring new collaboration methods, not limited to developers but also including city investment companies, construction agents, and financial partners [4] - The company has established 17 projects across major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, collaborating with various real estate firms [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to "stabilize real estate," indicating ongoing policy support and the necessity for further actions in 2026 [1][10]. - The report highlights the importance of internal demand, suggesting potential relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in core cities and reforms in the housing provident fund system [2][11]. - The real estate sector is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, with a focus on quality housing and the improvement of the competitive landscape favoring leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms [4][10]. Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference Review - The conference reiterates the commitment to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing inventory reduction and the construction of quality housing [1][10]. - Policies will be tailored to individual cities, focusing on controlling new supply and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [1][10]. Market Review - The weekly performance of the Shenwan Real Estate Index showed a decline of 2.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.54 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][15]. - The report notes a significant drop in new home sales, with a 45.3% year-on-year decrease in 30 cities, and a 30% decline in second-hand home sales [3][33]. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 172.2 million square meters, down 2.5% month-on-month and 45.3% year-on-year [3][28]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities reached 195.9 million square meters, reflecting a 2.7% month-on-month increase but a 30% year-on-year decline [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market recovery [4][10]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Development among others [4].