免责声明 铝类产业日报 2026/2/2 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客 为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23,035.00 | -1525.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,772.00 | +4.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -1,335.00 | -1395.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -162.00 | -4.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 238,005.00 | -46894.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 375,783.00 | -67133.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) ...

2月2日，2026年开年造车新势力交付成绩单已陆续揭晓。作为车市淡季，新势力交付量环比全线下滑，部分品牌跌幅超40%，但同比表现两 极分化。其中，鸿蒙智行以57915辆的成绩稳居榜首，小米、零跑、蔚来、极氪实现高增长，理想、小鹏则同比下滑，行业格局生变。 业内人士指出，2026年，车企技术与生态的竞争将成为新核心。头部车企要警惕用户需求的变化，及时调整产品配置与营销策略，避免因产 品脱离用户需求而出现销量下滑；腰部车企则可在细分市场发力，通过聚焦优势资源提升市场份额。 分化态势加剧 2月1日起，国内造车新势力陆续公布2026年1月交付成绩单。作为车市传统淡季，叠加政策补贴退坡等多重因素影响，1月车市整体呈现"环 比普降、同比分化"特征，新势力阵营格局生变。 在此背景下，新势力车企交付量普遍出现环比下滑，但同比表现呈现明显分化。已公布数据的近10家新势力车企中，有3家环比跌幅超 40%、3家跌幅超30%。其中，鸿蒙智行、小米汽车、零跑汽车稳居交付量前三，蔚来、极氪同比增幅接近翻倍，而理想汽车、小鹏汽车则 面临同比下滑的转型挑战。 具体来看，鸿蒙智行以近5.8万辆交付量断层领跑，同比大幅增长65.6%，环比则下降 ...

Core Insights - The delivery performance of new car manufacturers in January 2026 showed a significant decline in month-on-month figures, with some brands experiencing drops exceeding 40%, while year-on-year results displayed a stark divergence among companies [2][3] - The competition in the automotive industry is shifting towards technology and ecosystem advantages, necessitating adjustments in product offerings and marketing strategies to meet changing consumer demands [2][8] Delivery Performance - In January 2026, the overall delivery volume for new car manufacturers decreased, with three companies reporting a month-on-month decline of over 40% and three others over 30% [3] - Hongmeng Zhixing led the market with nearly 58,000 deliveries, marking a year-on-year increase of 65.6%, despite a month-on-month drop of 35.4% [3][4] - Xiaomi and Leap Motor also reported strong growth, while NIO and Zeekr saw near doubling in year-on-year figures; however, Li Auto and Xpeng faced year-on-year declines [2][3] Market Trends - The automotive market is experiencing a "financial war" as companies introduce low-interest financing options to stimulate sales, with Tesla and Xiaomi leading the charge with attractive financing plans [5][6] - The long-term growth trajectory for the electric vehicle market remains positive, with projections indicating that sales in China could reach 19 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.2% [7] Competitive Landscape - The competitive focus is shifting from price competition to value competition, driven by changes in government policies that encourage technological upgrades and quality consumption [7][8] - Key trends identified for 2026 include a shift towards value competition, accelerated market differentiation, and a focus on intelligent driving, smart cabins, and new battery technologies as critical areas for differentiation [7][8]

Group 1 - The German government announced the restart of a €3 billion electric vehicle subsidy program in early 2026, with a maximum subsidy of €6,000, aimed at revitalizing the domestic automotive industry and accelerating Europe's transition to electric vehicles [1][2] - The subsidy policy covers battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and range-extended electric vehicles (EREVs), with a tiered subsidy structure based on household income and vehicle type [2][7] - The decision to restart the subsidy program comes after a significant decline in electric vehicle registrations in Germany, with a 27.4% drop in 2024, leading to a market share decrease from 18.7% in 2023 to 13.5% [2][5] Group 2 - The subsidy program is designed to stimulate consumption among middle and low-income households and promote a diversified technology approach in the electric vehicle market [2][5] - The absence of production restrictions in the subsidy policy is expected to benefit Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, providing them with an opportunity to expand their market presence in Germany [6][8] - The competitive pricing of Chinese electric vehicles, enhanced by the subsidies, is likely to strengthen their market position, with brands like BYD and SAIC gaining traction in the German market [7][8] Group 3 - The overall economic conditions in Europe, including rising inflation and energy prices, may limit consumer purchasing power and affect the demand for electric vehicles despite the subsidies [10][13] - European automakers face challenges in battery technology and production costs, which may hinder their competitiveness against Chinese manufacturers [10][12] - The disparity in subsidies between traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles in Germany may reduce the incentive for local manufacturers to prioritize electric vehicle development [10][13]

| 百度集团-SW | 146.650 | -6.150 | -4.02% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地平线机器人-W | 7.930 | -0.300 | -3.65% | | 商汤-W | 2.380 | -0.090 | -3.64% | | 京东健康 | 60.950 | -2.300 | -3.64% | | 理想汽车-W | 63.600 | -2.350 | -3.56% | | 网易-S | 198.200 | -6.800 | -3.32% | | 金蝶国际 | 12.540 | -0.410 | -3.17% | | 小米集团-W | 34.520 | -0.980 | -2.76% | | 美团-W | 94.650 | -2.550 | -2.62% | 编辑｜钉钉 2月2日，港股低开低走，恒生科技指数午后跌幅扩大至4%；恒指现跌近3%。 科网股集体下跌，华虹半导体跌超12%，比亚迪股份跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超5%，快手、阿里巴巴、百 度集团跌逾4%，网易、小米集团、美团均走低。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ~ | | --- | --- ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 580 points or 2.08%, closing at 27,387 points[1] - The National Index dropped by 235 points or 2.5%, closing at 9,317 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 122 points or 2.1%, closing at 5,718 points[1] - Total market turnover was 301.612 billion HKD[1] Currency and Economic Indicators - The RMB/USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 93 pips to 6.9678, the highest since May 16, 2023[1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 477.5 billion RMB reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.4%[1] - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell to 49.3, below the market expectation of 50, indicating a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 40 points or 1%, at 4,117 points, with a turnover of 1.27 trillion RMB[2] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 94 points or 0.7%, closing at 14,205 points, with a turnover of 1.57 trillion RMB[2] - The ChiNext Index rose by 41 points or 1.3%, closing at 3,346 points, with a turnover of 726.1 billion RMB[2] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - China National Building Material (03323.HK) expects a loss of 2.3 to 4 billion RMB for the year ending December 31, 2025, compared to a profit of 2.387 billion RMB in 2024[4] - China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) anticipates a net profit of 50.8 to 55.8 billion RMB for 2025, a decrease of 10.6% to 18.6% year-on-year[4] - CICC (03908.HK) projects a net profit of 8.542 to 10.535 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85%[6]

去年6月，比亚迪港股股价曾触达157.82港元/股，此后一路波动下行。截至今日发稿，比亚迪港股股价 自2025年6月高点的157.82港元/股，已累计下跌约42.69%，市值距高点缩水约2481亿港元。 比亚迪昨日发布公告称，2026年1月实现新能源汽车销量约21万辆，同比下降30%。其中，乘用车销量 约为20.55万辆，同比下降30.67%；纯电动汽车销量约为8.32万辆，同比下降33.60%；插电式混合动力 汽车销量约为12.23万辆，同比下降28.53%。（一财汽车） 来源：第一财经 2月2日，比亚迪股份（1211.HK）开盘即下跌，截至午间收盘，报90.10港元，跌幅逼近8%。同日，港 股汽车股集体下挫，小鹏汽车一度跌近10%，蔚来盘中跌近7%，零跑汽车跌超5%，长城汽车跌超4%， 理想汽车、广汽集团跌超3%，吉利汽车、小米集团跌超2%。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

| 2月2日，比亚迪股份开盘即下跌，截至午间收盘，报90.10港元，跌幅逼近8%。 | | --- | 同日，港股汽车股集体下挫，小鹏汽车一度跌近10%，蔚来盘中跌近7%，零跑汽车跌超5%，长城汽 车跌超4%，理想汽车、广汽集团跌超3%，吉利汽车、小米集团跌超2%。 记者｜一财汽车 编辑 ｜ 钉钉 去年6月，比亚迪港股股价曾触达157.82港元/股，此后一路波动下行。截至今日发稿，比亚迪港股股 价自2025年6月高点的157.82港元/股，已累计下跌约42.69%，市值距高点缩水约2481亿港元。 比亚迪昨日发布公告称，2026年1月实现新能源汽车销量约21万辆，同比下降30%。其中，乘用车销 量约为20.55万辆，同比下降30.67%；纯电动汽车销量约为8.32万辆，同比下降33.60%；插电式混 合动力汽车销量约为12.23万辆，同比下降28.53%。 ...

Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market in China is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies showing year-on-year growth while facing month-on-month declines [1][2][3] - The sales data for January indicates a challenging start to the year, influenced by structural adjustments and consumer sentiment [2][4] Group 1: Sales Performance - BYD reported January sales of 210,051 units, a year-on-year decline of 30.11% [1] - Hongmeng Zhixing achieved 57,915 deliveries in January, marking a year-on-year increase of 65.6% and becoming the only new force to exceed 50,000 monthly sales [1] - NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles in January, a significant year-on-year increase of 96.1% [1] - Li Auto faced substantial pressure with declines in both year-on-year and month-on-month sales [1][3] - Xiaomi's performance was notable, with a strong delivery figure in January, and plans for new models launching in April [1][2] Group 2: Market Trends - The overall retail volume of passenger vehicles in China from January 1-18 saw a year-on-year decline of 28% and a month-on-month drop of 37% [2] - The new energy vehicle market also faced challenges, with a year-on-year decline of 16% and a month-on-month drop of 52% [2] - The end of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy by the end of 2025 and the impact of year-end promotions have led to a demand recovery phase in early 2026 [2] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Companies are shifting from price wars to innovative financing solutions, with Tesla leading the way by introducing long-term low-interest financing options [7] - Xiaomi, Li Auto, and NIO have followed suit with similar financing plans, aiming to attract consumers without direct price cuts [7] - Li Auto is also exploring deeper strategic adjustments, including potential entry into the AI and humanoid robot sectors [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall sales targets for major automakers in 2026 are ambitious, with a combined target of at least 24.55 million units, representing 71.37% of last year's total sales [6] - Analysts predict a growth rate of around 10% for new energy vehicle retail volumes in 2026, despite current market challenges [6][8] - The competition among automakers is expected to shift towards new model launches and enhancing user experience in the second quarter of 2026 [8]

开源证券提出，在购置税减免退坡及梯度以旧换新补贴预计对主流价位段新能源车销量造成较大影响的 背景下，2026年重点看好高端化发展方向。 比亚迪2月1日公告，2026年1月新能源汽车产23万辆、销21万辆，同比分别降29.13%、30.11%。小鹏汽 车公告，公司1月交付新车20011辆，同比下降34.07%，环比下降46.65%。主因或为购置税减半致需求 减少。 恒生科技指数ETF（513180）在跟踪恒生科技指数的ETF中规模排名第一，覆盖造车新势力龙头，持仓 比亚迪、蔚来、理想、小鹏、零跑。 2月2日，恒生科技指数盘中一度跌超3%。新能源车板块领跌，小鹏汽车、蔚来、比亚迪股份和零跑汽 车跌幅居前，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）盘中跌近3%。 ...