春节长假临近尾声，今年春节档拥有9天"史上最长假期"的加持，给消费注入十足动力。来自部分沪市 公司的数据显示，今年春节期间出行、票房数据都释放了积极信号，同时，文旅、白酒、食品等公司也 借助"年味"加速文旅融合或强化互动，助力消费"开足马力"。 出行、票房数据积极，消费劲头足 豫园灯会年年处出"新意"。今年新春，上海豫园灯会实现数字化全面跃迁，以"新质生产力"赋能传统节 庆打造，将前沿科技化作温暖的媒介，创造有温度、有情绪、有参与感的文化沉浸式体验，打造出全国 首个全链路数字化新春文旅场景。 冰雪热助力"开门红"。来自长白山的数据显示，2026年春节假期截至正月初六，长白山景区累计接待游 客8.10万人次，同比增长1.28%，在冰天雪地中成功实现了新春旅游的"开门红"，展现了长白山冰雪经 济的强劲活力。 知名景区数据喜人。黄山旅游紧扣"马不停蹄・玩转黄山"主题，统筹旗下景区与酒店资源，打造多维度 新春场景，策划推出非遗体验、互动演绎、新春祈福、趣味科普等系列特色活动。数据显示，2026年春 节初一至初六（2月17日-22日）期间，黄山风景区接待进山游客17.44万人，在去年高位基础上实现增 长2.38%，景区 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor industry, particularly on high-end brands, indicating a strategic buy recommendation for major players like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye [3][7]. Core Insights - The overall sales volume for the liquor industry during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to decline by 10%-20% year-on-year, which is slightly better than market expectations prior to the festival [3][6]. - A significant characteristic of the 2026 Spring Festival sales is the increasing differentiation and concentration among top brands, with high-end liquor performing exceptionally well. Moutai is projected to see a sales increase of over 30% year-on-year, while Wuliangye is expected to grow by 5%-10% [3][6]. - The industry is entering a notable destocking phase, with inventory levels for first-tier brands significantly lower than the same period last year [3][6]. - Prices for first-tier brands are stabilizing, with Moutai's price currently above 1700 yuan, expected to stabilize above 1600 yuan post-festival [3][6]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - High-end liquor brands are outperforming expectations, with Moutai showing the best performance. Wuliangye is leveraging price adjustments to increase volume, while Guojiao 1573 is maintaining price stability [8][6]. - Moutai's sales are expected to grow by over 30%, with inventory levels at distributors being nearly zero [8][6]. - Wuliangye's sales are projected to increase by 5%-10%, with inventory levels at distributors around 10%-15% lower than last year [8][6]. - Guojiao 1573 is expected to see a sales decline of 15%-20%, while its low-end variant remains stable [8][6]. Regional Feedback - Feedback from various regions indicates a mixed performance, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing resilience, while mid-tier and local brands face challenges [19][21]. - In North China, overall sales are down by about 15%, with high-end brands benefiting from increased consumer interest [12][21]. - In Jiangsu, the overall sales volume is expected to decline by 10%-15%, with Moutai maintaining stable performance [19][21]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the second half of 2026 will see a turning point for top brands in terms of sales and financial performance, with a potential dual boost in valuation and earnings by the end of the year [7][3]. - The industry trend is shifting towards consolidation, with larger companies absorbing smaller ones, leading to inevitable differentiation among listed companies [7][3].

2025年是白酒行业近年来承压最明显的一年。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1-12月，我国白酒（折65度，商品量）累计产量为354.9万千升，累计下降12.1%，行业迎来连续第九年产量下滑。根据2025年 10月31日智通财经《多家白酒企业前三季业绩"失速"：茅台净利增长6% 有公司称行业调整将持续一段时间》的报道，2025年1-9月全国规模以上白酒企业产 量为265.50万千升，同比下降9.90%。 渠道库存压力成为行业普遍痛点。中国酒业协会与毕马威联合发布的《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示，2025年上半年，58.1%的经销商反映库存持 续增加，价格倒挂现象加剧，800-1500元价格带酒类产品价格倒挂最为严重。这种库存压力直接反映在行业运营效率上：根据2025年8月28日中国酒业新闻 网《酒业如何穿越弱周期，构建寒冬期的生存与破局之道？》的报道，行业平均存货周转天数已达900天，同比增加10%，部分中小企业甚至超过180天。 2026年春节旺季前，茅台批价回升提振了市场信心，但白酒市场动销复苏分化明显。头部白酒企业凭借品牌优势率先实现经营企稳，多数中小品牌仍通过降 价促销的方式消化库存。 20 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a "moderate recovery under structural differentiation" during the 2026 Spring Festival, with strong demand for high-end brands and stable growth for mass-market products, while mid-range products face pressure [2] Group 1: High-End Market Performance - Moutai is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with many distributors reporting sold-out quotas for January and February 2026, leading to price increases [3] - As of February 21, 2026, the wholesale price of Moutai reached 1,700 RMB per bottle, up 10 RMB from the previous day, indicating a significant recovery from a low of 1,500 RMB earlier in the year [3] - Moutai's sales performance is strong, with distributors achieving 35%-40% of their annual payment plans by February 11, 2026, and sales growth of 10%-20% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Other High-End Brands - Wuliangye is also performing well, with distributors achieving around 40% of their annual payment plans by February 11, 2026, although sales growth varies by region [4] - The price of Wuliangye's mainstream product has increased from 760 RMB to a range of 780-800 RMB per bottle since the beginning of the year [4] Group 3: Mid-Range and Mass Market Trends - Mid-range brands are experiencing sales slowdowns and market share pressures, with some products seeing declines of over 20% due to reduced business banquets [5][6] - Mass-market products are showing resilience, supported by banquet and everyday consumption, with brands like Gujinggong and Shanxi Fenjiu performing well [6][7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with younger consumers favoring brands in the 100-300 RMB price range, leading to increased sales in larger supermarkets compared to smaller stores [7] - The demand for Guojian series liquor from Jinshiyuan has increased significantly during the Spring Festival, replacing traditional gift items [7] Group 5: Post-Festival Market Outlook - Despite strong sales during the Spring Festival, the liquor industry may face demand decline post-holiday, with potential inventory buildup and price corrections anticipated [8] - The long-term outlook suggests that many liquor businesses may exit the market, leading to a supply of discounted products [9] Group 6: Broader Consumption Trends - Moutai is expanding its consumer base beyond traditional customers, with a significant portion of participants in a survey indicating they included Moutai in their New Year's Eve dinners this year [10]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a "moderate recovery under structural differentiation" during the 2026 Spring Festival, with strong demand for high-end brands, stable growth for mass-market products, and pressure on mid-range categories [1][10]. High-End Brands - Moutai is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with many distributors reporting sold-out quotas for January-February 2026, leading to price increases. The wholesale price for Moutai has risen to 1,700 RMB per bottle, up from a low of 1,500 RMB earlier in the year [2][12]. - As of February 11, 2026, Moutai's sales growth is significantly outperforming the industry, with a year-on-year increase of 10%-20% in multiple regions [2][12]. - Wuliangye is also performing well, with distributors achieving around 40% of their annual sales targets by February 11, although regional sales performance varies [3][12]. Mid-Range and Low-End Products - Mid-range brands are under pressure, with many experiencing slower sales and market share erosion. For example, Gujing Gongjiu's high-end products have seen a decline of over 20% due to reduced business banquets [4][5]. - In contrast, low-end products are maintaining resilience, supported by banquet and everyday consumption. Sales in the 100-300 RMB price range have shown significant improvement compared to the previous year [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The overall economic environment remains challenging, and the current surge in liquor sales is largely attributed to pre-holiday demand, which may lead to inventory buildup and price corrections post-holiday [7][16]. - The liquor industry is expected to see more operators exit the market in the next 3-5 years, driven by survival and payment crises, which may lead to a continuous supply of low-priced liquor [8][17]. Consumer Trends - Moutai is expanding its consumer base beyond traditional high-end customers, with a notable increase in family consumption during the Spring Festival. A survey indicated that 43.85% of participants included Moutai in their New Year's Eve dinners this year [9][17].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu province has 20 brands recognized in the latest 2025 China Consumer Brand list, highlighting the region's strong presence in various consumer goods sectors [1] Group 1: Brand Recognition - The "China Consumer Brand" list includes brands that are innovative, high-quality, and reputable, with a total of 276 brands recognized [1] - Among the recognized enterprise brands, Jiangsu's Yanghe and Hengshun are listed as "Historical Classics" [1] - Eight brands from Jiangsu, including Shenghong, Hongdou, and Saint Elephant, are categorized as "Era Quality Products" [1] - Brands like Ecovacs and Suqian are recognized as "Trendy New Brands" [1] Group 2: Regional and Specialized Brands - Five regional brands from Jiangsu, such as Danyang Glasses and Changshu Outdoor Sportswear, have been included in the list [1] - Specific product brands for targeted demographics include Goodbaby and Gong An Kang for "Maternal and Child Products," and Su Yun for "Assistive Products" [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the vibrant consumer activity during the Chinese New Year, emphasizing the integration of festive spirit with robust consumption patterns, supported by financial services that enhance market liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support for Businesses - Hengfeng Bank is actively facilitating business upgrades and ensuring supply for the public by implementing multi-dimensional support to stimulate consumption [2]. - In Longkou, Shandong, Hengfeng Bank provided a rapid loan of 10 million yuan to local merchants to capitalize on the peak season for purchasing New Year goods [4]. - In Dezhou, the bank quickly approved a 3 million yuan loan to a local food company to meet surging order demands during the festive season [7]. Group 2: Consumer Trends and Innovations - The article notes a shift in the liquor industry, with Jiusiyuan Wine Company transitioning from scale expansion to value cultivation, supported by a 540 million yuan short-term financing bond underwritten by Hengfeng Bank [9]. - In Chongqing, Hengfeng Bank provided a 90.5 million yuan project loan to support the renovation and operation of a new automotive lifestyle complex, enhancing consumer experiences [10]. - In Suzhou, Hengfeng Bank approved a comprehensive credit line of 50 million yuan to a local egg supplier, ensuring the supply chain meets the increased demand during the festive season [11].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Province has 20 brands recognized in the latest 2025 China Consumer Brand List, highlighting the province's commitment to high-quality consumer goods and brand development [1][3]. Group 1: Brand Recognition - The "China Consumer Brand" list includes 276 brands, consisting of 165 enterprise brands, 76 regional brands, and 35 brands for specific demographics [1][3]. - Notable brands from Jiangsu include Yanghe and Hengshun as "Historical Classics," while brands like Shenghong, Hongdou, and Saint Elephant are recognized as "Era Quality Products" [3]. Group 2: Regional Brands - Five regional brands from Jiangsu are recognized: Danyang Glasses, Changshu Outdoor Sportswear, Yixing Ceramics, Hangji Toothbrush, and Xinghua Condiments [3][13]. Group 3: Specific Demographic Brands - Brands catering to specific demographics include Goodbaby and Gong An Kang for "Maternal and Child Products," and Su Yun for "Assistive Products" [3][19]. Group 4: Compliance and Support - Companies on the list are required to operate with integrity, fulfill social responsibilities, and continuously provide high-quality products and services [3][19]. - Local governments will enhance promotion and support for these recognized brands, aiming to cultivate distinctive industries and quality consumer brands [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese liquor market, particularly in Chengdu, is showing signs of recovery as the Spring Festival approaches, with increased sales velocity for major brands like Guojiao and Wuliangye [6][8]. - The seasoning market is also experiencing improved sales, with brands like Qianhe and Haitian gaining market share, and promotional activities increasing in supermarkets [11][12]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector in 2026, with recommendations for key stocks including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai among others [2][4]. Summary by Sections Chengdu Liquor Market Tracking - Sales velocity for Wuliangye and Guojiao has accelerated as the Spring Festival approaches, with Wuliangye's current batch price at 790 CNY per bottle and Guojiao at 850 CNY per bottle [7][9]. - Feedback from distributors indicates that inventory levels are healthy, with a focus on maintaining good stock levels to avoid excess [8][9]. Chengdu Seasoning Market Tracking - Soy sauce sales have improved year-on-year, with Qianhe and Haitian leading in market share, and promotional activities in supermarkets have increased significantly [11][12]. - The overall health of inventory levels in the seasoning market is noted, with major brands maintaining shorter inventory ages, indicating strong sales performance [11][15]. Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, the report recommends stocks such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, anticipating a new growth cycle starting in 2026 [2][4]. - In the consumer goods sector, companies like Anjuke Foods and Yanjing Beer are highlighted as having potential for outperforming the market due to new products and channels [2][4].

| | 证券简称 令世缘 | 证券代码 603369 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 29.15 1457.5 | 50 | 华泰证券股份有限 公司准安淮海东路 | 华泰证券股份互限 公司准安器采互目 | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2026-02-13 | | | | | | | | 2月13日，今世缘大宗交易成交50万股，成交额1457.5万元，占当日总成交额的9.26%，成交价29.15元，较市场收盘价32.39元折价10%。 ...