会议主持人: 好的，各位投资者新年好。 甚至是食品饮料，也都出现了这个明显的这个机会所以我觉得就是在今天大家都要看到在 中国市场，它的市场结构变得更加广泛，更加具有梯度。科技和非科技都在出现这个投资 机会。同时，权重和小市值也在出现投资机会。所以我觉得市场结构本身的变化也非常值 得大家去重新的审视今年中国市场的一个。这个眼镜，那说到我们的看法，大家也其实大 家也比较熟悉了。在 1 月中旬以来，国泰海通应该是唯一一个在市场当中讲，要开始重视 内需，要开始重视这个传统行业的这样的一个，这个证券公司和研究团队。 李鹏飞 国泰海通金属分析师: 现在就是我们联合还是策略跟十大周期行业的首席，给大家开年梳理一下这个周期整个板 块，这个投资逻辑，还有这个机会。那首先，我们还是有请策略首席方毅老师发言。 方奕 国泰海通策略首席: 好的，谢谢。各位朋友，大家晚上好，我是方毅。大家新年快乐，这是开年以来，这个第 一天，也是第一次和大家沟通我们对中国市场的看法。那应该来说，2026 年以来，实际 上大家可以看到今年所上涨的这个板块，其实和去年是有比较大的这个差异的。比如说去 年比较强劲的这个算力，今年普遍的表现是这个比较差的。那当 ...

据赢商网最新统计，河南2026年预计新增集中式商业项目14个，总商业面积91.5万㎡。对比2022至2026年近五年数据可见，自2023年河南新增商业项目在 数量和体量迎来"双峰值"后，市场供应节奏逐步放缓。（文末附2026年河南筹开集中式商业项目盘点清单） 2025年，河南热度攀升、强势出圈，商业体在郑州遍地开花，奥莱、胖东来、谷子经济等消费业态百花齐放。到了2026年全省筹开商业项目聚焦消费升级 与场景创新，在政策引导与市场需求双重驱动下，形成以郑州为核心、地市多点开花的发展格局。 从区域布局来看，省会郑州有8个新开项目，总建筑面积达40.5万㎡，数量创下近五年之最。二七商圈、奥体中心片区、郑东新区等板块成为开发热点， 承担着高端消费与业态创新的引领作用；商丘、濮阳两地聚焦区域商业空白，通过大型综合体填补市场缺口；此外，开封也有中小型商业布局，推动城市 商业均衡发展。 筹开项目中，5万方以下占比 35.7%，5-10万方占比 50%，10万方以上项目仅有2个，无20万方以上超大型项目规划。这一结构反映出开发商更注重投资回 报率与运营稳定性，中小型项目凭借灵活适配性成为市场主流，既满足社区便民需求，又规避了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate ETF (512200) has shown a positive trend, with a 2.15% increase as of February 25, 2026, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market following the Chinese New Year holiday [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate ETF (512200) recorded a trading volume of 69.0258 million yuan, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Guangming Real Estate (up 10.07%), Chengdu Investment Holdings (up 9.96%), and I Love My Home (up 4.56%) [1]. - The market experienced a decline in overall trading volume during the previous week due to the Spring Festival holiday, but there was a rebound in market transactions compared to the same period in the previous year [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the overall market transaction volume has shown signs of stabilization since the beginning of 2026, indicating a positive outlook for high-quality enterprises in the future [1]. - Huayuan Securities believes that the length and depth of the real estate adjustment in China have reached a relatively sufficient level, with current adjustments nearing historical averages in terms of both magnitude and duration [1]. - The central government's emphasis on "good housing" construction, accelerated REITs pilot programs, and expanded financial support for affordable housing are expected to contribute to the industry nearing the end of its adjustment phase [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Bank of China Securities highlights the importance of early positioning for "policy turning points," while the "fundamental turning point" opportunities may last longer, requiring price stabilization for sustained recovery [2]. - The "policy turning point" may manifest through increased policy enthusiasm on both the supply and demand sides of the real estate market, while the "fundamental turning point" is indicated by a narrowing decline in second-hand housing prices [2]. - Some real estate companies have adequately accounted for impairments in 2025, which may reduce impairment pressure in 2026 and 2027, presenting potential for reversal [2]. - Companies holding commercial real estate have proactively adapted to new business models and consumption trends, positioning themselves to capitalize on opportunities in the new consumption era [2]. Group 4: ETF Composition - The real estate ETF (512200) closely tracks the CSI All Share Real Estate Index, which categorizes sample securities into various industry classifications, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, Hainan Airport, Wantong Development, New City Holdings, Quzhou Development, Binhai Group, and Xianlead [2].

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advancements in robotics showcased during the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, emphasizing the progress in hardware, control systems, and bionic technologies [2][11] - The polyester industry is experiencing a recovery, with leading companies benefiting from an integrated supply chain and improved demand dynamics [3][12] Mechanical Industry - The 2026 Spring Festival Gala featured performances by four companies, demonstrating cutting-edge achievements in embodied intelligence, including hardware, control, and bionic operations [2][11] - The performance of robots exceeded expectations, serving as a catalyst for the sector, with recommendations to focus on domestic robot supply chain companies [2][11] Polyester Industry - The polyester supply chain is witnessing a recovery, with profits shifting towards the filament segment due to improved supply-demand dynamics [3][12] - Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to contribute stable investment returns, with projected annual contributions exceeding 1.5 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, significantly smoothing out the cyclical fluctuations of the filament business [3][12] - The report forecasts a steady increase in net profit for the company, with estimates of 2.046 billion yuan, 3.693 billion yuan, and 4.987 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a strong growth potential [3][12]

Group 1: Real Estate and Construction - The real estate market continues to show signs of bottoming out, with a weak performance in new home sales during the Spring Festival period, reflecting poor supply and demand dynamics [3][9][12] - The land market has seen a significant decline in both supply and demand, with total land area launched in January 2026 down 16% year-on-year, and total land transaction value down 39% [11][12] - Policy measures such as the reduction of the value-added tax on second-hand housing and the lowering of minimum down payments for commercial properties indicate a generally accommodative policy environment [3][12] Group 2: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The pig price is under pressure post-holiday due to the end of stocking and limited weight reduction, with the average price of pigs at 11.66 yuan/kg as of February 13, 2026, down 0.40 yuan/kg week-on-week [4][13] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in the average weight of pigs being marketed, indicating ongoing pressure from large pigs and structural pricing risks [13][14] - The overall market sentiment remains weak, with expectations of a seasonal decline in demand in the weeks following the holiday [14] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Services - The retail sector is experiencing a steady recovery in consumption, with payment transactions on the eve of the Spring Festival increasing by 21.64% compared to the previous year [5][19] - Key retail and catering enterprises reported an average daily sales increase of 8.6% during the first four days of the holiday compared to the same period in 2025 [19][25] - Investment recommendations focus on high-quality companies in the consumer sector, particularly those in gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [26] Group 4: Pharmaceuticals - The company has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with GSK for two siRNA pipeline products, with potential total transaction value reaching up to $1 billion [6][28] - Revenue forecasts for the company are maintained at 143 million, 169 million, and 201 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a downward adjustment in net profit estimates [6][28] - The collaboration with GSK highlights the company's growing recognition in the small nucleic acid drug development field, paving the way for future global partnerships [28][29]

石榴云/新疆日报记者 于江艳 黑宏伟 抢抓"史上最长"春节重要消费机遇，今年春节假期，新疆各地大力实施提振消费专项行动，持续丰富消 费业态、优化消费场景，推动商旅文体健深度融合，全域消费市场活力迸发、热度攀升，商务部门重点 监测的零售、餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.1%，呈现购销两旺、繁荣有序的良好态势。 2月23日，顾客在乌鲁木齐CCMALL时代广场非遗集市上挑选福字。这里不仅延续着节日购物的火热氛 围，更因一场别开生面的非遗集市，吸引了众多消费者驻足体验。春节假期，乌鲁木齐市消费市场活力 迸发，年味与烟火气交织升腾。石榴云/新疆日报记者 李瑞摄 自治区商务厅监测数据显示，春节期间，全疆重要民生商品供应充足、价格平稳。各地（州、市）投入 近2亿元地方财政补贴资金，叠加国家以旧换新补贴、有奖发票等惠民政策，激活消费市场"一池春 水"。 供应充裕 价格平稳 2月23日，乌鲁木齐市青年路好家乡超市生鲜销售区内，各类时令蔬菜琳琅满目、备货充足，市民有序 选购，节日市场暖意融融。 "过年大鱼大肉吃多了，买点新鲜蔬菜换换口味。"市民吴华选购了菠菜、油麦菜、芹菜等蔬菜，花费不 到20元，实惠的价格让她十分满意。 自治区商务厅 ...

February 16, 2026 12:59 AM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific Fast-Softening, High-Frequency Data Strengthens Our Call on Likely Unsustainable Recovery Recent secondary home sales have been trending down rapidly, as expected, reinforcing our view that sales pickup in January is likely unsustainable. We reiterate our call on potential sector pull-back into results season amid further cool-down on home sales in coming weeks. Key Takeaways Secondary home sales are cooling fast, with YTD registered sales in 11 m ...

RatingsDirect® 中国房地产观察：供给过剩压制复苏 2026 年 2 月 9 日 版权 © 2026 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC。版权所有。 本报告不构成评级行动。 今年中国开发商将继续迎接挑战 *指 2025 年年末待售面积相比 2021 年中国楼市进入下行期之前 10 年平均值的增幅。资料来源：国家统计局，标普全球评级。 库存六年连增 新建商品房待售面积（百万平方米） 商品房待售面积 相比行业下行前 平均值的增幅* 我们预测的 2026 年全国新建商品 房销售额降幅 我们预测的 2026 年二手住宅价格 降幅 连续6年年末待售面积同比增加 下行之前10年期间（2011-2020年） 平均值 要点速览 商品房库存积压，意味着中国房地产市场面临着崎岖的复苏之路。2025 年商品房待售面积已连续第 六年增加。供给过剩可能导致价格承压，而价格下跌又会损害购房者信心，形成了一个难以打破的恶 性循环。 主要联系人 陈令华，CFA，FRM 香港 852-2533-3539 edward.chan @spglobal.com 亚太区经济学家 高路易 香港 ...

推荐建发股份的时机在于去年 12 月中旬仓位洗净后，目前 9 元左右的 位置稳健，是短期利空出尽后的最佳配置时机。从相对估值、股息率和 NAV 来看，公司折价深，安全垫充裕，攻防兼备。 建发国际深耕高能级城市，选择优质土地储备项目。截至 2025 年中期， 公司未售土地储备面积约为 1,500 万平方米，对应货值 2,700 亿元，相 当于 2024 年销售额的两倍左右。土储周转速度快且质量高。 对于未来一段时间内地产基本面的判断是什么？ 各个城市企稳时间点会有所不同。基本面最好的城市如北京、上海和成都，有 望在今年三季度末或四季度逐步企稳，中概率情形可能要到 2027 年，小概率 则是在今年上半年。因此，在未来一段时间里，如果数据边际回调且股价盘整， 从一年维度投资博弈视角来看，目前是一个较高性价比的建仓时机。只要资金 进入，这个板块就能迅速反弹 30%至 40%。 建发股份 20260223 摘要 房地产市场挂牌量下降，价格跌幅收窄，部分城市或已触底，配置地产 股的必要性增加。多数股票估值仍低于去年三季度水平，折价空间 30%-40%。未来行情依赖核心城市量价及政策突破。 北京、上海和成都等基本面较好的城 ...

智通财经APP获悉，克而瑞地产发文称，2025年，房地产政策仍保持宽松基调，基础设施REITs工作在 稳步推进。房企融资上，2025年房企融资仍然呈现收缩态势，全年融资规模达4143亿，同比下降26%。 其中第四季度融资1023亿，环比下降14%，同比下降14%，仍然处于历史低位。展望2026年，克而瑞预 计房企偿债压力将有所减缓，公募REITs助力房企由重至轻。 2026年偿债压力有所减缓，公募REITs助力房企由重至轻 由于近年来房企债券发行规模下滑明显，2026年房企整体的债务到期规模也明显下降，全年到期约4038 亿元，其中一季度到期约1298亿，三季度到期1180亿，为年内的高点。 从企业的债券类融资成本来看，2025年的境外债券融资成本为6.21%。2025年2月绿城中国(03900)发行 了一笔2028年到期的3.5亿美元的优先票据，利息高达8.45%；而6月新城发展发行3亿美元境外债，利率 高达11.88%。相比之下，越秀在10月底发行的境外优先票据成本低至3.3%，华润在11月发行的两笔境 外债成本分别为2.4%和4.125%。目前仅极少数房企有在境外发行债券的情况，但是发行成本出现了明 显 ...