Group 1: Market and Performance Review - The light industry and textile apparel sectors have outperformed the CSI 300 index, with textile apparel rising by 2.05% and light industry by 2.43% as of June 24, 2025 [21][22] - In Q1 2025, the light industry saw a revenue decline of 0.78% year-on-year, while the textile apparel sector experienced a 13.33% decline in revenue [25][29] - The light industry’s net profit decreased by 18.85% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while the textile apparel sector's net profit fell by 5.56% [25][29] Group 2: Home and Electric Two-Wheeler Industries - The home and electric two-wheeler sectors are expected to benefit from the deepening of the old-for-new policy, which is anticipated to improve demand and sales [37][44] - In the first five months of 2025, the retail sales of furniture increased by 21.40% year-on-year, significantly boosted by the old-for-new policy [43][44] - The electric two-wheeler industry faced challenges, with a projected 10.55% decline in sales for 2024, but the old-for-new policy is expected to support sales recovery [59][65] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - The "谷子" economy, driven by Z generation consumers who value emotional and self-satisfying purchases, is projected to reach a market size of 1,689 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 40.63% year-on-year [7][79] - The pet food market is expected to grow to 3,002 billion yuan by 2024, with a significant increase in consumer preference for domestic brands [97][105] - The sanitary products market is also evolving, with non-leading domestic brands showing potential for growth due to the rise of e-commerce and consumer preferences for single products [7][105]

新消费核心反弹可期，持续布局稳健复苏 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | | 上次评级 看好 | | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500524120004 | | 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com | | 陆亚宁 新消费行业分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500525030003 | | 邮箱：luyaning@cindasc.com | 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 新消费核心反弹可期，持续布局稳健复苏 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.c ...

Core Insights - The sanitary napkin market in China is experiencing significant growth, with a market size of 703.4 billion yuan in 2023, representing an 8.2% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - By 2025, the market is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.5% [5][6]. - The entry of celebrities and new brands into the sanitary napkin market is driven by high profit margins and a growing consumer demand for transparency and safety [9][13]. Market Dynamics - The sanitary napkin industry is characterized by high-frequency demand, with an average woman using around 10,800 to 15,000 pads in her lifetime [7][8]. - Major brands like Hengan International and Baiya have reported gross margins exceeding 55%, indicating a lucrative profit potential [10][11]. - The emergence of new brands is partly due to a trust vacuum created by scandals in the industry, leading consumers to seek alternatives that emphasize safety and transparency [14][15]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly sharing their negative experiences with existing products, highlighting issues such as misleading product sizes and allergic reactions [24][25]. - The current regulatory standards are lagging behind consumer expectations, allowing for practices that may be legal but are perceived as unfair [28][32]. - The sanitary napkin market is witnessing a shift towards higher-priced products, driven by emotional marketing and the perception of quality, despite the absence of significant cost increases [44][46]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the sanitary napkin market is evolving from price wars to battles over brand trust and emotional connection with consumers [21][22]. - New entrants are leveraging celebrity endorsements and social media influence to capture market share, with brands like Duowei and Dongfang Zhenxuan achieving rapid sales through live streaming [19][20]. - The industry is facing a potential backlash as consumers become aware of the disparity between price and actual product quality, which could lead to a market correction [60][68]. Future Outlook - The market may see a return to more rational pricing as consumers become more discerning and regulatory standards improve [69][70]. - Brands that focus on delivering quality products at fair prices while maintaining consumer trust are likely to emerge as winners in the evolving landscape [71].

来源：金融界 公开信息显示，现任基金经理齐炜中先生:中国国籍,硕士研究生,金融学硕士。2012年7月加入大成基金 管理有限公司,历任研究部研究员、行业研究主管。2017年2月20日起任大成积极成长混合型证券投资基 金基金经理助理。具备基金从业资格。2020年2月3日起担任大成消费主题混合型证券投资基金基金经 理。2020年02月03日担任大成景阳领先混合型证券投资基金基金经理。2021年03月17日担任大成一带一 路灵活配置混合型证券投资基金基金经理。2021年6月21日担任大成蓝筹稳健证券投资基金基金经理。 2022年11月18日至2025年1月9日任大成消费机遇混合型证券投资基金基金经理。2024年8月5日担任大成 内需增长混合型证券投资基金基金经理。 截止2025年3月31日，大成一带一路灵活配置混合A前十持仓占比合计58.82%，分别为：百亚股份 （9.53%）、孩子王（7.14%）、中芯国际（7.11%）、盐湖股份（6.67%）、匠心家居（5.57%）、永辉 超市（5.08%）、中兴通讯（4.97%）、新诺威（4.96%）、景业智能（3.94%）、成都华微（3.85%）。 6月19日，大成一带一路灵 ...

Core Insights - The sales of sanitary napkin brands, particularly "Mianmian de Yang," have surged during the 618 shopping festival, with significant growth observed on platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin [1][5][10] - The brand "Mianmian de Yang," founded by influencer Zhao Zihan, has gained attention despite facing quality issues earlier this year, showcasing a remarkable recovery in sales [2][5][10] - The traditional sanitary napkin brands are facing challenges due to quality concerns and negative publicity, creating an opportunity for new brands to capture market share [7][8][10] Sales Performance - During the 618 shopping festival, Tmall reported that brands like "Hushubao" entered the top 10 in personal care sales [1] - On JD, the transaction volume of sanitary napkins increased threefold compared to the previous year within the first hour of the event [1] - "Mianmian de Yang" saw its sales volume rise from 474.7 million to 572 million in a short span, indicating a strong market presence [5][6] Brand Dynamics - "Mianmian de Yang" has effectively utilized the negative publicity surrounding traditional brands to position itself as a trustworthy alternative [7][9] - Zhao Zihan emphasizes personal involvement in product quality, which resonates with consumers seeking reliable options [9] - The brand's marketing strategy includes transparency in production and social responsibility initiatives, such as donating a portion of sales to menstrual poverty projects [9][10] Market Trends - The sanitary napkin market in China is projected to reach 99.1 billion yuan by 2024, with an annual growth rate of 5.9% [13] - E-commerce channels are expected to grow significantly, with online sales of sanitary napkins increasing by 17% [13] - The industry is facing a rise in consumer complaints, with a 23% increase in complaints reported in recent years, highlighting the need for improved quality control [13][14] Regulatory Environment - New national standards for sanitary products will be implemented on July 1, 2024, which will enforce stricter quality and safety requirements [14] - The recent controversies have prompted brands, including "Mianmian de Yang," to enhance their quality control measures to align with these upcoming regulations [15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it provides various investment recommendations across different sectors [48]. Core Insights - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 37,316 billion yuan, growing by 7.0% [4][7]. - The report highlights a strong recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the restaurant sector, while the hotel industry continues to face challenges. The automotive sector is experiencing growth due to new car launches, and there is a positive outlook for the home appliance and consumer goods sectors [7][16][20][37]. Retail Sector Summary - Retail sales in May showed a month-on-month acceleration, with online sales gaining a larger share. The total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4%, with a 1.3 percentage point increase from the previous month [13]. - The online retail sales of physical goods grew by 6.3% year-on-year in the first five months, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [13]. - Essential goods maintained good growth, with retail sales of staple food and daily necessities increasing by 14.6% and 8% respectively [14]. Food and Beverage Sector Summary - The restaurant sector saw a robust growth of 5.9% in May, marking the highest growth rate of the year. The hotel sector, however, continues to face pressure due to weak business travel demand [16]. - The report indicates that the liquor retail sales increased by 11.2% in May, with expectations for continued growth during peak seasons [32]. Automotive Sector Summary - In May, the automotive retail sales reached 4,010 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. The report emphasizes the strong performance of new energy vehicles, which saw a sales increase of 33% year-on-year [20][21]. - The report suggests that the automotive sector is likely to benefit from a price war, which may stimulate sales growth in the short term [21]. Home Appliance Sector Summary - The home appliance sector experienced a significant increase in retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 53% in May. The report attributes this growth to government subsidies and the early start of the "618" shopping festival [37][42]. - The report highlights strong performance in various categories, including air conditioners and refrigerators, with online sales showing substantial growth [38]. Textile and Apparel Sector Summary - Retail sales in the textile and apparel sector increased by 4% in May, driven by holiday promotions and the early start of sales events [26]. - The report recommends focusing on domestic demand and the potential for growth in the mid-to-high-end segments of the market [26]. Consumer Goods Sector Summary - The report indicates a positive outlook for consumer goods, particularly in personal care and pet care segments, with retail sales of daily necessities growing by 8% in May [29][30]. - The report suggests that companies with strong brand recognition and consumer insights are well-positioned to capture market share [15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [5][9][42]. Core Viewpoints - The company is recognized as a leading domestic brand in the disposable hygiene products industry, focusing on the development, production, and sales of personal hygiene products, including sanitary napkins, baby diapers, and adult incontinence products [8][15]. - The company has established a strong market presence, with its "Free Point" brand ranking second among domestic sanitary napkin brands in terms of market share as of 2024 [8][15]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages built on a "channel + brand + R&D" strategy, emphasizing its focus on core markets and e-commerce expansion [23][28]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 21.44 billion RMB in 2023 to 32.54 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51.77% [7][42]. - The forecast for 2025 estimates revenue at 44.75 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 37.52% [9][41]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 238 million RMB in 2023 to 384.87 million RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 33.79% [7][42]. Market Strategy - The company employs a multi-channel sales strategy, including distributors, key accounts (KA), and e-commerce platforms, to enhance market penetration [24][25]. - The e-commerce channel is particularly emphasized, with revenue from this segment projected to grow significantly, contributing 46.9% of total revenue by 2024 [25][28]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence in peripheral provinces while maintaining a stronghold in its core markets of Sichuan, Chongqing, and Yunnan [28][29]. Product Development and R&D - The company is committed to continuous product innovation, focusing on high-end product lines and health-oriented series, such as the probiotic series [32][35]. - R&D investment is increasing, with a focus on developing new materials and enhancing product comfort and functionality [35][39]. - The company has introduced several new product lines aimed at improving consumer experience and expanding its market reach [35][36]. Valuation Comparison - The report compares the company with peers in the personal care sector, noting that its projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 32.61, significantly lower than the average P/E of 63 for comparable companies [11][42][43]. - This valuation suggests potential upside for investors, given the company's strong market position and growth prospects [11][42].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Huayuan Securities on Baiya Co., Ltd. highlights the company's strong position in the domestic disposable hygiene products market, particularly in sanitary napkins, and assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock [1][4]. Company Overview - Baiya Co., Ltd. was established in 2010 and specializes in the research, production, and sales of disposable personal hygiene products, including sanitary napkins, baby diapers, and adult incontinence products. The company owns well-known brands such as "Free Point," "Good," and "Danning." It primarily sells through distributors, key accounts, and e-commerce channels, focusing on a multi-brand strategy to cater to consumers of all ages [2][3]. Competitive Advantages - **Channel Strategy**: The company is expanding its market presence through a focused marketing strategy in key regions, particularly in the Sichuan-Chongqing area, while also enhancing its e-commerce and emerging channel capabilities. It has a strong market share in key provinces, ranking first in Chongqing, Sichuan, and Yunnan, and second in Guizhou and Shaanxi [3]. - **Brand Development**: Baiya is concentrating on health-oriented product lines, continuously upgrading its offerings to enhance brand strength. The introduction of the Pro series of probiotics is aimed at younger consumers and professionals, which has received positive market feedback [3]. - **Research and Development**: The company is increasing its R&D investments to maintain its industry-leading position. It focuses on high-end products and has expanded its product matrix to include various innovative offerings, which has contributed to the growth of its sanitary napkin sales [3]. Financial Projections - Baiya's revenue is projected to reach 4.48 billion, 5.50 billion, and 6.57 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.5%, 23.0%, and 19.3%. The net profit is expected to be 380 million, 500 million, and 610 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 33.8%, 28.9%, and 23.0% [4]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 33, 25, and 21 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Comparatively, similar companies in the personal care sector have a PE ratio of 63 for 2025 [4]. Market Position - Baiya Co., Ltd. is recognized as a leading domestic brand in the sanitary napkin market, with a significant market share and a strong competitive edge in key provinces. The company's focus on e-commerce and health-oriented products is expected to drive future growth [2][4].

Group 1 - The central economic work conference prioritizes expanding domestic demand, emphasizing the need to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency [3] - New consumption models such as social e-commerce, unmanned retail, and experiential consumption are emerging, driven by consumption upgrades and expanding consumption scenarios, presenting significant investment opportunities in the capital market [3] - The upcoming 15th Lujiazui Financial Salon will focus on "New Consumption, New Models: Investment in the Consumption Industry from the Perspective of Expanding Domestic Demand," scheduled for June 14, 2025, in Shanghai [3] Group 2 - Key speakers include Yang Ju, Chief Analyst of the Food and Beverage Industry at Zheshang Securities, who has extensive experience in the industry and has received multiple awards for his analysis [3][4] - Other notable speakers include Zhang Yi, Vice President of Dingdong Maicai, and Hu Zongtian, Vice President of Miaokelando, both of whom have significant experience in the consumer sector [5] - The roundtable discussion will cover the impact of new consumption models on traditional ones, strategies for product and brand innovation, and the role of digital transformation in reshaping the consumption industry [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The rapid rise of domestic brands is driven by supply-side innovation and channel transformation, as evidenced by the cases of Baiya and its subsidiaries Haoyue and Yuanfei [2][6] - Baiya's brand development and expansion are significantly influenced by differentiated product offerings, particularly in the probiotics segment, leveraging platforms like Douyin for rapid customer acquisition [16][25] Summary by Sections Baiya's Growth Path - Baiya has successfully utilized Douyin's e-commerce advantages to enhance brand visibility and drive offline expansion, achieving significant growth in both online and offline channels [16][25] - The company has focused on creating differentiated products, particularly in the probiotics category, which has led to a rapid increase in revenue share [20][25] Haoyue Care - Haoyue's main business includes OEM for baby diapers and the operation of sanitary napkin brands, with projected revenue contributions of 70% from baby hygiene products, 19% from adult hygiene products, and 8% from non-absorbent hygiene products in 2024 [27][30] - The company has seen a recovery in revenue, with an estimated 2024 revenue of 2.93 billion yuan, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth [30][31] Yuanfei Pet Products - Yuanfei focuses on the pet industry, with a revenue breakdown of 46% from pet snacks and 35% from pet leashes, while 86% of its business comes from export OEM [44][46] - The company has expanded its brand portfolio with the introduction of self-owned brands like Pikapoo, which has quickly gained traction on Douyin, achieving significant sales growth [58][59] Weekly Insights - The report expresses optimism about the growth of new tobacco products and IP derivatives, while also highlighting potential opportunities in AI glasses and toy sectors [8][63] - The pet products sector has shown promising growth, with notable increases in sales during promotional events like the "618" shopping festival [9]