苹果收涨4.06%，英伟达涨3.12%，谷歌A涨2.76%，亚马逊涨2.01%，微软涨1.86%，特斯拉则收跌 0.06%，Meta Platforms跌0.50%。 本周，英伟达累计反弹17.62%，亚马逊反弹8.11%，微软反弹7.95%，谷歌A反弹7.85%，Meta反弹 7.70%，特斯拉涨5.38%，苹果反弹5.19%。 周五（4月11日），美国科技股七巨头（Magnificent 7）指数上涨2.40%，报141.01点，本周累计上涨 8.95%。 此外，AMD收涨5.30%，台积电ADR涨3.94%——本周整体反弹7%，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦B类股 涨1.61%，礼来涨1.6%。 | 美股七姐妹热门 | 当前价 # | 涨跌幅 # | 成交量 $ | 总市值 $ 年初至今 # | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股 √ | | | | | | | Destiny Tech ... | 31.20 | +1.62 (+5.48%) | 42.61万股 | 3.39亿 -46.99% | ( ) ... | | us DXYZ | 31.12 | ...

美国通胀超预期降温，3月核心CPI创四年来最低同比增速，并且CPI近五年来首次环比下降。但关税战升级的威胁压倒了通胀放缓的利好，成为 市场关注的焦点，投资者担忧情绪重占上风，美股、美元这类美国资产遭抛售，避险资产瑞郎、日元、黄金全线上涨。 据央视新闻，中国商务部周四回应中方是否就关税问题与美展开谈判表示，谈，大门敞开；打，奉陪到底；外交部驻港公署发言人致信媒体阐明 中方严正立场，信中提到，妄图挥舞关税大棒逼迫世界各国打电话认输的野蛮人永远不要指望等到中国的电话。 美股未能保住周三的大反弹，周四三大美股指一度至少跌超5%，标普500指数曾跌超6%、接近熔断。美元指数创2022年以来的最大单日跌幅。 长债抛售升温，继续推升长期美国国债的收益率，十年期美债收益率一度升超10个基点。不过，美国3月CPI公布后，长债收益率曾收窄升幅，两 年期美债收益率降幅扩大、一度跳水超10个基点。 避险货币瑞郎和日元强劲反弹，瑞郎兑美元一度涨近4%，创2015年来最大盘中涨幅。同为避险资产的黄金加速上涨，现货黄金时隔一周再创盘 中历史新高。国际原油因贸易战持续的担忧而重回跌势，美国能源部EIA报告因关税及其对经济影响的不确定性而大幅 ...

Group 1: International Trade and Economic Relations - The Chinese government is concerned about the U.S. imposing tariffs on imports, particularly regarding the opioid crisis and the 301 investigation, emphasizing the need for stable Sino-U.S. trade relations [1][3] - U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars, effective April 2, stating that cars manufactured in the U.S. would be exempt from these tariffs [10] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government is promoting the development of international consumption center cities, focusing on modern trade circulation systems, retail innovation, and high-quality wholesale industry development [2][4] - Measures include optimizing entry policies for foreign personnel, expanding visa-free access, and enhancing payment services for international consumers [4] Group 3: Corporate Developments - GAC Group clarified that it has not engaged in any discussions regarding the acquisition of Evergrande Auto's Nansha factory, countering rumors circulating online [5] - Evergrande Auto announced that it is unaware of any reasons for the recent increase in its stock price following a bankruptcy filing for one of its subsidiaries [6][7] - Greentown China announced a leadership change, with Zhang Yadong resigning as chairman and Liu Chengyun appointed as the new chairman [8] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced a collective decline, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.04%, marking its largest single-day drop since March 11, and major tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia falling over 5% [9]

以下文章来源于棱镜 ，作者肖望 棱镜 . 腾讯新闻出品栏目，《棱镜》聚焦泛财经深度记录。 作者 | 肖望 编辑 ｜ 孙春芳 来源 | 棱镜·腾讯小满工作室 （ID：lengjing_qqfinance） 华尔街转向。 "同样是高水平的人工智能，为什么中国股市比标普500有这么大的折价？这不合理。"3月7 日，瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊表示，"会有更多海外投资者介入，推动估值上的修 复。" 由DeepSeek引发的针对中国资产的重估潮正在资本市场上演：自蛇年春节（2月3日）以来， 汇聚了最多中国互联网科技公司的恒生科技指数一路狂飙，并创下三年以来的新高。区间涨幅 一度达31.83%。 Wind数据显示，自2月3日至3月7日，恒生科技指数的总市值增加了3.04万亿元。其中，恒生 科技指数的权重股代表（截至3月7日收盘）如阿里巴巴上涨58.55%、腾讯控股上涨 32.97%、小米集团上涨41.91%。 与此同时，美股波动加剧，今年以来，标普500成分股的市值较年内高点蒸发（截至3月11 日）超5.08万亿美元（约36.72万亿元）。3月10日，美股更是遭遇"黑色星期一"，其中特斯 拉一夜暴跌超15%，股价较高点 ...

Macro Dynamics - The People's Bank of China is researching the establishment of new structural monetary policy tools to increase low-cost funding support for key consumption areas, aiming to create a favorable financial environment for expanding consumption [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission is actively formulating supporting policies related to childcare subsidies and labor wages, with a comprehensive action plan for boosting consumption to be implemented across various departments [2] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to initiate pilot reforms in automotive circulation consumption to foster new growth points in automotive consumption [3] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is steadily advancing the construction of a carbon futures market and the research and development of certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) futures [4] - The OECD has lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 3.1% due to escalating inflation pressures and trade tensions [5] Financial Institutions - Jiangsu Bank reported a total deposit balance of 23,355 billion yuan as of March 16, 2025, an increase of 2,210 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, and a loan balance of 20,323 billion yuan, reflecting steady growth in key operational metrics [8] - The Minsheng Bank's credit card center in Northeast China has ceased operations, following a trend of closures among various commercial bank credit card centers as the industry undergoes transformation [9] Market Data - On March 17, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.19%, with total trading volume in the A-share market at 1.57 trillion yuan, a decrease of 218.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [10] - The margin financing balance across both exchanges increased by 1.165 billion yuan as of March 14, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange reporting a balance of 9,677.62 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange reporting 9,441.01 billion yuan [11] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 0.77%, with southbound funds recording a net inflow of over 10 billion Hong Kong dollars [12][13] Company Dynamics - Wanhua Chemical announced a projected net profit of 13 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 22.49%, with total revenue expected to reach 182.07 billion yuan, a 3.83% increase [14] - BYD unveiled its "Megawatt Flash Charge" technology, capable of achieving a maximum charging power of 1 MW and charging speeds of 2 kilometers per second [15] - WuXi AppTec reported a net profit of 9.45 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 1.63%, and plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.8169 yuan per 10 shares [16] - Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stake in three Japanese companies, raising its holdings in Mitsubishi from 8.31% to 9.67%, in Sumitomo Mitsui Trust from 8.23% to 9.29%, and in Itochu from 7.47% to 8.53% [17] - Porsche Holding stated it has no plans to sell its voting shares in Volkswagen, despite previous speculation regarding potential divestment [18] - Samsung's chairman Lee Jae-Yong expressed concerns over the company's loss of internal momentum, indicating a critical juncture for the firm [19] - Alibaba's platform 1688 announced the complete cancellation of the "refund only" policy, shifting to a system where the platform will subsidize buyers based on account credibility [20]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy, after over three decades of stagnation, appears to be showing signs of recovery, with rising property prices and a rebounding stock market, but the underlying issues that led to its previous decline remain critical for future growth [3][27]. Group 1: Economic Stagnation and Recovery - Japan's economy has been stagnant since the early 1990s, transitioning from a "lost decade" to "lost decades," with minimal growth in GDP and productivity [2][6]. - Since 2016, property prices in Japan have been slowly increasing, particularly in major cities, with Tokyo's tower prices expected to rise nearly 30% by 2024 [3]. - The Nikkei 225 index has shown significant recovery, surpassing 38,000 points in early 2024, marking a historical high [3]. Group 2: Technological Decline - Japan was once a leader in technology and innovation, but has fallen behind in adopting new technologies, particularly in the smartphone market, where it has lost ground to companies like Apple and Samsung [7][9]. - The decline in Japan's technological leadership is attributed to conservative corporate cultures and a reluctance to embrace new processes, leading to stagnation in productivity [21][22]. Group 3: Demographic Challenges - Japan faces significant demographic challenges, including a declining birth rate and an aging population, which have contributed to a shrinking workforce and economic stagnation [12][19]. - The labor force participation rate has only slightly decreased, but the potential for increasing working hours is limited due to existing long working hours [11][19]. Group 4: Housing Market Dynamics - Japan's housing market has remained relatively affordable compared to other major cities, attributed to less restrictive development regulations, allowing for a greater supply of affordable housing [14][15]. - The historical context of Japan's real estate bubble and subsequent crash has shaped current housing prices, with many households now free from mortgage burdens, potentially increasing disposable income [26][27]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The end of the long-standing mortgage burdens from the bubble era is expected to provide a boost to consumer spending, with a projected 2.7% increase in household consumption by the end of 2024 [27]. - Global investors, including Warren Buffett, have shown renewed interest in Japan, indicating potential for long-term investment growth in the country [27][28].

从本质上来说，任何投资决策都是预测未来。无论你决定购买股票，卖出债券，或者坐拥现金，其实都是基于你对未来做出的判断之上的决策。因此有很多 人认为，如果想要获得好的投资回报，投资者一定要有超凡的预测未来的能力。那么问题来了：事实确实是这样么？ 在分析这个问题之前，我们先来看张图。 图表 1 ：市场对美联储基准利率的预测总是错 数据来源：彭博社，Apollo Chief Economist 上图展示了自2008年以来美联储基准利率的历史（绿色实线）。站在现在回头看，我们可以看到一条非常清晰的历史路径：美联储在2008年金融危机后，立 刻大幅度降息至零，并将零利率水平一直保持到2016年。在2016到2020年间，美联储慢慢逐步升息。然后到了2020年，COVID疫情发生后，美联储再次将利 率降到零。从2022年开始，为了应对通胀压力，美联储又快速将基准利率提到5%左右。 很多人可能没有意识到的是，市场对于美联储未来利率的预测（上图中虚线）， 从来没有正确过 。举例来说，在2008到2016年间，美联储利率始终保持在 零，然而同期市场的共识是：美联储很快就会升息。很少有人会预料到，零利率会整整持续8年。 接下来，让 ...

比亚迪 3 个月招了 20 万人。 比亚迪（002494.SZ）执行副总裁何志奇发文说，8 至 10 月整车加零部件招聘近 20 万人，各基地 都处于满产状态。比亚迪集团品牌及公关处总经理李云飞曾在 9 月 13 日宣布，比亚迪员工总数超 过 90 万人。按当前增速，比亚迪将在年内有超过百万名员工。 赛力斯否认布局人形机器人。 赛力斯（601127.SH）11 月 4 日在官方微博发布公告，称没有计划召开 "人形机器人技术论坛" 等 会议，网上流传的相关截图信息亦不实，并且，赛力斯没有与任何伙伴联合开展有关人形机器人方 面的合作。这番表态算是对周末开始广泛流传的专家访谈纪要和相关论坛活动海报的回应。期间， 赛力斯董秘在个人朋友圈亦更新状态，"没有论坛，也没有任何供应商"。 万豪下调年度盈利预测目标。 全球最大酒店集团万豪（MAR.O）预计全年的调整后每股利润将在 9.19 美元至 9.27 美元之间，而 之前预测为 9.23 美元至 9.40 美元。下调预测目标主要受大中华区需求疲软影响。 任天堂连续五个季度盈利下滑。 在截至 9 月的财季里，任天堂营业利润超预期下降 29%，降至 670 亿日元，主要因为 ...

以丰田、本田为代表的日本汽车产业仍然焦虑，一方面是担心当地因为利率上升等因素对汽车总需求 有所下降。另一方面在泰国决心推动电动车发展之际，中国车企正积极实施本土化战略、更多受益于 这股顺风。 比亚迪泰国独家经销商是 Rever Automotive，后者是泰国著名汽车经销集团 Siam Motors Group 实控 家族成员设立的公司；上汽与泰国最大私营公司卜蜂集团合作。 中国车企与泰国更深的合作还在推进。长城汽车已经在泰国运营两条生产线，上汽要建新能源产业 园、还要带一部分产业链公司过去，比亚迪 2022 年 9 月签署土地认购协议、当地生产当地销售只是 时间问题。 在泰国，比亚迪挑战丰田 今年秋天，日本和东盟很可能首次在政府层面共同制定汽车生产和销售战略，而不是让各车企独自在 东盟地区开展业务。截至目前，日本政府拟加码产业政策的动机也比较清楚：为了应对在东盟存在感 迅速扩大的中国车企。 在泰国，比亚迪挑战丰田 Temu、Shein 合规压力变大 拼多多发起的《出道吧！科技小院》开播 上海伊势丹百货关门，一个消费时代的结束 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 据市场研究公司 Marke ...

"2018 年之后，就没见钱回来过。" 文丨高洪浩 宋玮 制图丨黄帧昕 编辑丨宋玮 "凭运气赚的钱，再凭实力亏掉"，这句话常被用来调侃这样一类典型：加入某家不被看好的创业公司，没 想到风口到来，公司蒸蒸日上，此后期权变现，经朋友推荐把钱丢进几个明星项目，不出意外，亏掉了。 过去二十年，腾飞的中国 TMT 行业让一批人白手起家便赚得不菲财富。 2022 年之前，他们出手阔绰。有人做天使投资，热衷于 winner picking（挑选赢家）；有人像买包一样投 基金；有人下股市搏杀，分别买入美团、拼多多和快手的股票以分散风险，却忘了它们都在同一只叫 "中 国 TMT" 的篮子里。 一位公司创始人，本着 "分散" 精神，把钱给了 10 个他认识的基金经理，这 10 个基金经理本着 "共识" 的 原则，又把钱都投到了一家公司里，结果就是这个创始人自己的公司。 上一笔财富的获得方式和体验，决定了他们相信什么。 整整一代创业者和投资人都是在长达 13 年的牛市中被教育起来的，2022 年当这个惊人的牛市结束之后， 他们看起来集体进入了一个价值混乱期。 "价值投资是不是不存在了？基本面是不是不存在了？" 一位被美元 VC 机 ...