Core Viewpoint - The "technology bull" continues to lead the market in Q4 2025, while both "new consumption" and traditional consumption sectors, represented by brands like Bubble Mart and liquor companies, show weak performance throughout the year [1]. New Consumption Sector - In Q4 2025, the new consumption sector, particularly represented by Bubble Mart, experienced a significant decline, with Bubble Mart's stock dropping by 29.65% [2]. - Despite the downturn, Bubble Mart remained a key holding for 123 funds, with a total of approximately 37.587 million shares held, although it was reduced by 8.7591 million shares in the quarter [2]. - Other new consumption stocks like Mao Geping and Mixue Group also saw increased fund interest, with Mao Geping being increased by 575.93 million shares and Mixue Group by 1.0322 million shares [3]. - Analysts suggest that the new consumption sector has potential for growth due to low penetration rates, despite volatility in some companies [3]. Traditional Consumption Sector (Liquor) - The traditional consumption sector, particularly the liquor industry, has shown disappointing profit results, with many stocks experiencing declines [4]. - Major liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao faced reductions in holdings by funds, with Wuliangye being reduced by approximately 15.9 million shares [5]. - Despite the overall decline, Kweichow Moutai saw an increase in holdings by over 20,000 shares in Q4, indicating continued investor confidence [5]. - Analysts believe that the liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations for stabilization in the future, although the bottom for prices and financial reports has yet to be seen [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights structural opportunities in service consumption, particularly in the jewelry market during the Spring Festival season. It emphasizes the strong performance of high-end beauty brands and the recovery of high-end consumption trends [2][4][41]. Summary by Sections Tourism and Cultural Services - During the New Year's holiday, domestic travel reached 142 million trips, with total spending of 84.789 billion yuan, indicating a robust recovery in the tourism sector. The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the winter tourism peak, such as Changbai Mountain and Emei Mountain tourism [3][35]. Beauty and Personal Care - The K-shaped consumption trend is evident, with a growing demand for high-end beauty products and an increase in the penetration of OTC retail channels. The online sales of beauty products are projected to reach approximately 217.08 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1% [4][26]. Retail and Trendy Toys - The high-end consumption recovery is expected to extend to high-end beauty, luxury apparel, and high-end services. The trendy toy sector is projected to see online sales of approximately 72.2619 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 40% [4][12]. Gold and Jewelry - Gold prices are expected to remain strong during the Spring Festival, with limited declines in consumption volume. The report anticipates significant growth for major brands during this period, recommending companies with a high proportion of fixed-price products [4][43].

行 华福证券 社会服务 2026 年 01 月 23 日 业 研 究 社会服务 关注服务消费结构性机会，及春节旺季珠宝行情 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 文旅：元旦假期出行链数据超预期。海南离岛免税方面，元旦假期期 间，海口海关共监管离岛免税商品销售 44.2 万件，同比增长 52.4%；购物 人数 8.35 万人次，同比增长 60.6%；购物金额 7.12 亿元，同比增长 128.9%。 旅游出行方面，经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，元旦假期 3 天，全国国内 出游 1.42 亿人次，国内出游总花费 847.89 亿元，建议关注四季度冰雪游旺 季公司长白山、大连圣亚，寺庙游标的九华旅游、峨眉山 A 等。 黄金珠宝：金价高位走强，关注春节旺季销售。春节旺季金价走强， 民众基于"买涨"心理，旺季期间预计行业消费量下降有限，而金价同比 大幅上涨，主要品牌 1-2 月同店有望保持较快增长。建议关注一口价产品 占比高的潮宏基、老铺黄金、周大福，其他建议关注高股息的周大生、菜 百股份。 华福证券 风险提示 宏观经济波动；需求不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 for Blokko (00325) by 19% and 17% to 650 million and 870 million yuan respectively, while introducing a net profit forecast of 1.07 billion yuan for 2027. The target price has been reduced by 26% to 100 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 40% based on adjusted P/E ratios for 2026 and 2027 [1]. Group 1: Company Current Situation - CICC conducted a company survey and engaged in in-depth discussions with management regarding strategic reviews, new product performance, and international expansion. The firm believes that the company will focus on trending categories in 2026, which is expected to enhance performance certainty, with a continued emphasis on new product categories and international market performance [2]. Group 2: Focus on Key Categories in 2026 - In 2025, the company explored business boundaries through a global strategy targeting all demographics and price points. While the 9.9 yuan products for the lower market performed well, some categories, such as female-targeted products, did not meet internal goals, which diluted resources and affected profit performance. In 2026, the company plans to stabilize the new product launch rhythm and improve the success rate of individual products. Financially, with a mature team structure and stable personnel size, operational leverage is expected to manifest. The company aims to control the proportion of low-margin products, which, combined with economies of scale, is anticipated to stabilize and improve gross margins [3]. Group 3: Successful Development of Building Block Vehicles - The company has established building block vehicles as one of its two core strategic categories alongside building block figures, planning to maintain a monthly launch rhythm in 2026. This category is expected to contribute positively to gross margins. The core IP operation for building block figures continues to deepen, with the Transformers series effectively covering price points from 9.9 yuan to 249 yuan, while new SKU specifications for Ultraman are stimulating demand. The company’s all-demographic strategy is expected to see an increase in adult-targeted products in the second half of 2025 [4]. Group 4: Strong International Performance - In the second half of 2025, the company’s overseas business is expected to continue high growth, with a projected doubling in performance. Thanks to pricing strategies and product strength, the company maintains a price advantage despite North American tariffs and has successfully entered mainstream channels like Walmart. North America is anticipated to become the largest single overseas market in 2026, while the company plans to expand its presence in Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, supported by logistics and warehousing. Additionally, the European team is currently being built, indicating significant future potential [5].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 for Blok (00325) by 19% and 17% to 650 million and 870 million HKD respectively, while introducing a net profit forecast for 2027 of 1.07 billion HKD, with a target price reduction of 26% to 100 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the current price [1] Group 1: Company Current Situation - CICC conducted a company survey and engaged in in-depth discussions with management regarding strategic reviews, new product performance, and overseas expansion [2] Group 2: Focus on Key Categories in 2026 - In 2026, the company plans to focus on key categories to enhance efficiency, having previously explored business boundaries across all demographics and price points in 2025. The company aims to stabilize the new product launch rhythm and improve the success rate of individual products while controlling the proportion of low-margin products [3] Group 3: Growth Potential from Building Block Vehicles - The company has established building block vehicles as one of its two core strategic categories alongside building block figures, planning to maintain a monthly launch rhythm in 2026. The core IP operation for building block figures continues to deepen, with effective coverage across various price segments [4] Group 4: Strong Overseas Performance - The company's overseas business is expected to continue high growth, with a projected doubling in the second half of 2025. The North American market is anticipated to become the largest single overseas market in 2026, supported by pricing strategies and product strength [5]

Company Overview - The company has conducted a recent survey and engaged in in-depth discussions with management regarding strategic reviews, new product performance, and international expansion [1] - In 2025, the company plans to conduct large-scale new product launches to experiment, while in 2026, it aims to focus on trending categories to enhance performance certainty, with a continued emphasis on new product categories and international performance [1] Strategic Focus - In 2026, the company intends to concentrate on key product categories, which is expected to improve quality and efficiency. In 2025, the company explored business boundaries with a global strategy, achieving good performance in the 9.9 yuan market segment, while some categories, such as female-oriented products, did not meet internal targets, leading to resource dispersion and profit drag [1] - The company plans to stabilize the new product launch rhythm and improve the success rate of individual products, while financial maturity and stable personnel size are expected to reveal operational leverage effects [1] - The company anticipates stabilizing and recovering gross margins by controlling the proportion of low-margin products and leveraging scale effects to dilute costs [1] Product Development - The company has successfully cultivated the building block vehicle category, which is expected to drive future growth. In 2026, it plans to maintain a monthly launch rhythm for this category, which is expected to contribute positively to gross margins [1] - The core IP operation for building block figures continues to deepen, with the Transformers series effectively covering price ranges from 9.9 yuan to 249 yuan, while new SKU specifications for Ultraman stimulate demand [1] - The company’s strategy for all demographics is progressing, with an expected increase in the proportion of adult-oriented products in the second half of 2025 [1] International Expansion - The company’s overseas business is expected to continue high growth, with a projected doubling in the second half of 2025. The pricing strategy and product strength have allowed the company to maintain a price advantage despite North American tariff impacts, successfully entering mainstream channels like Walmart [2] - North America is expected to become the largest single overseas market in 2026, while the company plans to expand its presence in Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, supported by logistics and warehousing [2] - The European team is still being built, indicating significant future potential in that market [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Due to some new products underperforming, the company has lowered its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 19% and 17% to 650 million yuan and 870 million yuan, respectively, and introduced a new adjusted net profit forecast of 1.07 billion yuan for 2027 [2] - The current price corresponds to 18 and 15 times the adjusted P/E for 2026 and 2027, respectively. The target price has been reduced by 26% to 100 HKD, corresponding to 26 and 20 times the adjusted P/E for 2026 and 2027, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the current price [2]

Core Insights - The card and trendy toy sector is experiencing a new wave of IPO applications, with companies like Sannisen Di and Suplay recently submitting their applications to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - Sannisen Di, an IP toy company from Hunan, has gained recognition for launching IP-authorized figurines following the release of the animated film "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" in early 2025. The company reported revenues of 107 million yuan in 2023 and 245 million yuan in 2024, with a significant increase to 386 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by popular IP products [2]. - Suplay, which focuses on collectible cards, has also seen rapid revenue growth, reporting 146 million yuan in 2023 and 281 million yuan in 2024, with 283 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025. The company ranks first in the collectible non-battle card market in China based on GMV for 2024 [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The card and trendy toy sector is expanding, with multiple companies, including KAYOU and 52TOYS, also in the process of going public. KAYOU's revenue is projected to reach 10 billion yuan in 2024, significantly up from 934 million yuan in 2023, while 52TOYS has seen its revenue grow from 463 million yuan in 2022 to 630 million yuan in 2024 [4]. - The market for card and trendy toys is expected to grow significantly, with the global entertainment merchandise market projected to reach $82.2 billion by 2024, maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.1% over the next five years. The Chinese market for non-card trendy toys is expected to grow from 53.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 151.9 billion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of 23.3% [7]. Group 3: Cultural and Product Innovations - The trend of incorporating Chinese cultural elements into products is gaining traction, with companies like 52TOYS collaborating with cultural institutions to create innovative products. For instance, 52TOYS has developed a series of creative products in partnership with the National Museum, showcasing traditional artifacts in a modern context [8].

该行成，布鲁可2025年下半年的复苏势头似乎较预期疲弱，由于公司产品推出步伐放缓及低价商品占比 上升，因此下调其销售与盈利预测，惟销量增长料将保持强劲。富瑞预期布鲁可旗下车辆玩具产品的进 一步发展将带动增量销售，料公司毛利率将于2026年下半年回升。随着公司采取更聚焦的招聘策略及签 约新IP，预料销售、一般及行政开支比率将温和改善。 富瑞发布研报称，将布鲁可(00325)2025至2027年的盈测分别下调14%、23%及26%，收入预测降14%、 18%及21%，目标价由128港元下调至97港元，维持"买入"评级。该行相信公司的销售动力持续改善， 且2022至2027年间的净利润复合年增长率达22%，估值吸引。 ...

该行成，布鲁可2025年下半年的复苏势头似乎较预期疲弱，由于公司产品推出步伐放缓及低价商品占比 上升，因此下调其销售与盈利预测，惟销量增长料将保持强劲。富瑞预期布鲁可旗下车辆玩具产品的进 一步发展将带动增量销售，料公司毛利率将于2026年下半年回升。随着公司采取更聚焦的招聘策略及签 约新IP，预料销售、一般及行政开支比率将温和改善。 智通财经APP获悉，富瑞发布研报称，将布鲁可(00325)2025至2027年的盈测分别下调14%、23%及 26%，收入预测降14%、18%及21%，目标价由128港元下调至97港元，维持"买入"评级。该行相信公司 的销售动力持续改善，且2022至2027年间的净利润复合年增长率达22%，估值吸引。 ...

Core Insights - The company plans to shift towards product focus and operational optimization in 2026, aiming to enhance development certainty and significantly expand the building vehicle product category [1] - In 2025, the company will increase its SKU count to achieve comprehensive expansion of IP characters and product forms, although some products may underperform during this trial-and-error phase [1] - The company will concentrate resources on successful categories and product lines in 2026, maintaining a similar SKU count to 2025 while reducing inefficiencies through personnel control and enhanced R&D management [1] Product Development - The company will introduce over 10 product series in the building vehicle category, featuring external licensed IPs such as Ultraman, Transformers, and Batman, as well as original IPs [1] - Existing core IPs will innovate in style and diversify price ranges, with a significant increase in new product launches for the Ultraman IP in 2026 [1] - The company aims to simplify business processes for short-lifecycle movie derivative IPs, allowing for rapid product launches to capitalize on short-term market trends [2] Market Expansion - The company is accelerating the acquisition of licensed IPs in overseas markets, with Southeast Asia and North America expected to provide strong support for revenue growth [2] - In the first half of 2025, overseas revenue reached 110 million yuan, showing significant growth, with major coverage in Southeast Asia, North America, and Europe [2] - The company has established local teams in regions like Indonesia, Malaysia, the U.S., and Europe to enhance operational efficiency and responsiveness [2] Financial Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic building block market, with rapid overseas market expansion anticipated [3] - EPS projections for 2025-2027 are 2.41, 3.20, and 4.42 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 25x, 19x, and 14x, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]