有色金属周报 20260219 美国非农超预期+春节来临，金属价格震荡 glmszqdatemark 贵金属：美国 1 月非农数据超预期，降息预期回落，美伊谈判取得阶段性进展但未来变数 较大，长期来看央行购金+美元信用弱化主线难以根本性扭转，继续坚定看好金价上行。 美国 1 月非农新增就业 13 万个，显著高于市场预期的 7 万个，失业率降至 4.3%，低于预 期的 4.4%，降息预期回落，美国和伊朗就核问题进行接触，双方称谈判取得进展，美伊冲 突释放阶段性缓和信号，压制避险需求，但未来双方局势不确定较大，中长期央行购金+美 元信用弱化仍为主线，看好金银价格中枢上移。白银价格可能依然走弱，这轮周期使得光 伏需求承压，银浆成本占比飙升，未来贱金属化成趋势。重点推荐：紫金黄金国际、中国 黄金国际、西部黄金、山东黄金、招金矿业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、潼关黄金、万国黄金 集团，建议关注灵宝黄金、大唐黄金和集海资源等，白银标的推荐兴业银锡、盛达资源。 风险提示：需求不及预期、供给超预期释放、海外地缘政治风险。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with an addition of 130,000 jobs in January, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This has resulted in a cooling of interest rate cut expectations [2]. - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening U.S. dollar credit [2]. - The report notes that silver prices may continue to weaken due to pressure from photovoltaic demand and rising costs in silver paste, indicating a trend towards cheaper metals [2]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report indicates that the SW Non-ferrous Index rose by 1.67% during the week, while the COMEX gold price increased by 1.51% and COMEX silver decreased by 0.33% [9]. - The report provides a detailed performance analysis of key stocks, with several companies recommended for investment based on their earnings forecasts and valuations [3]. Base Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in base metal prices, noting that aluminum prices have been under pressure due to high inventory levels and seasonal demand declines as the Chinese New Year approaches [25][26]. - Copper prices experienced volatility, initially rising but later falling due to strong U.S. employment data and cautious market sentiment ahead of the holiday [45]. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - The report states that gold and silver prices have seen fluctuations, with gold averaging 1101.52 CNY per gram, down 0.83% from the previous week, while silver prices fell significantly [74]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on precious metal prices, with a focus on the potential for price recovery as market conditions evolve [78]. Energy Metals - The report highlights a clear shortage in the energy metals sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, with expectations for price increases post-holiday as demand recovers [9]. - Nickel prices are anticipated to rise due to the implementation of Indonesia's nickel ore export quota policy [9].

| 权益类证券大宗交易(协议交易) | | | | | | | 团 下载 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 买方营业部 | | 卖方营业部 | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | 2026-02-25 | 002756 | 永兴材料 | 55.57 | 75.03 | 4,169.62 发证券股份有限 | | 广发证券股份有限 | | | | | | | 公司深圳壹方中心 | | 公司杭州金华南路 | | | | | | | 工艺 地 高品 山 立即 | 江北高山加 | | 2月25日，永兴材料大宗交易成交75.03万股，成交额4169.62万元，占当日总成交额的4.11%，成交价 55.57元，较市场收盘价56.99元折价2.49%。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The steel industry in 2025 is characterized by supply contraction, export growth, price stabilization at low levels, and gradual improvement in profitability, with crude steel and pig iron production decreasing by 4.4% and 3.0% respectively, while steel output increased by 3.1% to 1.446 billion tons [2][10][81] - Steel exports reached a record high of 11.9 million tons in 2025, reflecting a 7.5% year-on-year increase, while the average export price fell by 8.1% to 694 USD per ton [10][81] - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) averaged 93.19 points in 2025, down 9.1% year-on-year, indicating a narrow fluctuation range and a balance in market supply and demand [11][81] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The raw material prices for iron ore and coking coal showed a mixed trend in 2025, with expectations for stable supply and weak price fluctuations in 2026 [2][19][81] - The steel supply side is constrained by government policies, leading to further reductions in pig iron and crude steel production capacity, while steel mills adopted a "production based on demand" strategy [2][23][81] - The demand structure for steel is shifting, with manufacturing steel usage surpassing construction steel for the first time, accounting for 51% of total demand, while construction steel dropped to 49% [2][44][82] Group 3: Industry Transformation and Profitability - The steel industry is expected to focus on "controlling total volume, optimizing supply, increasing efficiency, and promoting transformation" as it enters the 14th Five-Year Plan period [12][82] - Profitability is anticipated to stabilize and improve, supported by structural optimization and cost control, with special steel and green steel sectors likely to benefit from industry development [12][82] - Investment recommendations include companies such as CITIC Special Steel, Hualing Steel, Jiuli Special Materials, Yongjin Co., and Yongxing Materials, which are expected to perform well in the evolving market [81][83]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector is experiencing a strong performance, with companies like Chuanfa Longmang, Dazhong Mining, and Jiangte Electric reaching their daily price limits due to positive market sentiment and expectations regarding lithium prices and supply dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Multiple futures companies have reported that lithium exports from Zimbabwe are facing obstacles, which has contributed to a bullish sentiment in the market [2]. - Zhongcai Futures indicated that the market is waiting for the validation of positive expectations regarding energy storage after the holiday, leading to a strong market outlook [2]. - Dongzheng Futures noted that rumors of a halt in Zimbabwean lithium exports contributed to a significant price increase in the market, although it was later clarified that legal exports are resuming after addressing issues related to smuggling [2]. Group 2: Company Implications - Companies such as Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianhua New Energy, Zhongkuang Resources, Yahua Group, Cangge Mining, Salt Lake Co., Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Yongxing Materials are identified as key players in the sector benefiting from the current market conditions [2].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance in lithium mining stocks, with notable gains from companies such as Dazhong Mining and Jiangte Motor, both hitting the daily limit up [1] - Lithium carbonate futures continued to rise, increasing by 5.59% to reach 170,000 yuan per ton, marking the seventh consecutive day of increases and the highest level since January 29 [1] Group 2 - Dazhong Mining's stock rose by 9.99%, with a total market capitalization of 61.1 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 29.98% [2] - Jiangte Motor's stock increased by 9.97%, with a market cap of 17.9 billion yuan and a year-to-date rise of 7.60% [2] - Other companies such as Shengxin Lithium Energy and Tianhua New Energy also saw significant gains, with increases of 8.86% and 8.19% respectively [2] - The overall trend in the lithium sector indicates strong investor interest and potential growth opportunities [1][2]

Market Overview - The first trading day of the Year of the Horse (February 24) saw A-shares open positively, with the ChiNext index rising by up to 2% and the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.87% [1][14] - Over 4,000 stocks in the market rose, with more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit [1][14] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][14] Sector Performance - The chemical sector continued to rise, with active performances in phosphate chemicals and fertilizers, leading to several stocks, including Hebang Biotechnology, hitting the daily limit [1][14] - The Chemical ETF (516020) surged by 3.42%, attracting 222 million yuan in the previous five trading days [1][14] Precious Metals and Commodities - Following the Spring Festival, the domestic market entered a peak working season, with the "golden March and silver April" period expected to see increased industrial production and infrastructure projects [3][16] - Precious metals prices surged due to rising risk aversion stemming from U.S. tariff policy disputes and geopolitical tensions, with the Precious Metals ETF (159876) rising by 3.18% and attracting a net subscription of 6 million units [3][16] - The outlook for gold demand is optimistic, with expectations of surpassing 5,000 tons globally by 2025, driven by strong investment flows and central bank purchases [7][19] Military and Aerospace Sector - The military sector showed strong performance, with the Military ETF (512810) rising by 1.16% and experiencing a premium at closing [9][21] - The domestic aviation sector is expected to accelerate, with the C919 aircraft averaging nearly 50 flights per day during the Spring Festival, a 52.6% increase year-on-year [11][24] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are expected to heighten the urgency of national defense construction in China [11][24] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest maintaining a focus on cyclical price increases and the expansion of AI trends as the main market themes [4][17] - The investment strategy emphasizes a dual focus on technology and resource products, with technology centered on AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while resource products focus on precious metals and basic chemicals [4][17]

马年首个交易日（2月24日）有色金属板块火力全开，强势上涨，板块热门ETF——有色ETF （159876）场内价格最高涨超3.7%，收涨3.18%。值得关注的是，该ETF全天获资金净申购600万份，反 映资金看好板块后市，积极进场抢筹！ 成份股方面，白银有色、湖南白银双双涨停，钒钛股份、盛新锂能涨超7%，永兴材料、铜陵有色、西 部黄金、兴业银锡等个股大幅跟涨。 综合市场观点来看，近期黄金、白银再度走强，与市场避险情绪升温密切相关，而驱动因素主要来自两 个方面： 1、关税扰动方面，特朗普10%的全球关税生效。美国最高法院裁决特朗普政府大规模关税"越权"、废 除关税权限后，特朗普随即签署行政令，宣布自2月24日起对全球商品加征10%进口关税，并于21日将 税率上调至15%。美国高层在关税政策上的博弈，加大了美国政策与未来经济走势双重的不确定性。 2、地缘政治方面，美伊局势的反复摇摆。当前美伊谈判未有实质性进展且美国不断在伊朗周边"重兵集 结"，此外以色列再度空袭黎巴嫩且试图改变约旦河西岸现状。 瑞银认为，地缘政治风险将持续高企，而美联储宽松周期预计将继续，对实际利率构成压力。2025年全 球黄金需求突破5000吨 ...

Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market experienced a strong opening after the Lunar New Year, with the main futures contract opening high and reaching a peak of 165,800 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of 10.56%, the largest since its listing [1] - The spot market also saw a rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 152,000 yuan/ton, up 8,250 yuan/ton (5.74%), and industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaging 148,500 yuan/ton, also up 8,250 yuan/ton (5.88%) [1] - The A-share lithium mining index rose by 3.77%, with major stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Yongxing Materials seeing increases of over 5% [1] Group 2 - UBS raised its lithium price forecast significantly, predicting an average price of 170,000 yuan/ton for 2026, a 26% increase, and 200,000 yuan/ton for 2027, driven by growing demand from electric vehicles and energy storage [2] - A fire at a lithium salt factory in Jiangxi, a key production area, raised concerns about production stability, contributing to the upward price pressure [2] - The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to eliminate certain additional tariffs is expected to lower the overall tariff costs for Chinese energy storage products exported to the U.S. by about 5%, positively impacting the profit margins of related companies [3]

值得注意的是，此前，赣锋锂业董事长李良彬也曾在2025年底公开预测，若2026年需求增速超过30%，碳酸锂价格有望突破15万元/吨甚至20万元/ 吨。 （原标题：瑞银高调唱多 狂拉超10%！碳酸锂期货创历史最大涨幅） 农历新年后的首个交易日，碳酸锂市场迎来强势"开门红"。2月24日，碳酸锂主力期货合约开盘即跳空高开，盘中最高触及165800元/吨，最高涨 幅超11%，截至收盘报164120元/吨，涨幅达10.56%，创上市以来最大单日涨幅。 现货市场同步跟涨。据上海有色网（SMM）数据，当日电池级碳酸锂均价报152000元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨8250元/吨，日内涨幅5.74%；工业 级碳酸锂均价报148500元/吨，环比同样上涨8250元/吨，日内涨幅5.88%，期现货形成联动上涨态势。 资本市场层面，A股锂矿概念亦同步发力。截至收盘，锂矿指数（884785.WI）大涨3.77%，成分股全线飘红，其中盛新锂能（002240.SZ）涨幅达 7.2%，永兴材料（002756.SZ）、盐湖股份（000792.SZ）、赣锋锂业（002460.SZ）等龙头股涨幅均超5%。市场资金对锂矿市场的关注度显著提 升。 此轮 ...