编辑丨孙超逸 在上金所、上期所元旦休市期间，全国最大的黄金珠宝现货交易市场——深圳水贝的交易并未停歇。 1月4日， 21世纪经济报道记者走访深圳水贝市场时注意到，部分商家将银条叠放在金条之上售卖。 记者丨黄子潇 按照常规的销售思路，商家往往会把最畅销或者价值最高的商品置于显眼之处。 不过，水贝商家向记者给出了更直白的原因：新进货的银条没地方摆了。因此，更为昂贵的金条只 能"屈居其下"。 疯狂的白银：拿料变困难，加工费水涨船高 在刚过去的2025年，银价以约140%的涨幅超越金价约60%的涨幅，成为年内表现最强的贵金属品种。 即便在全市场大类资产配置中，白银的表现也堪称一枝独秀。 白银的行情，甚至导致交易从场内转到场外。 12月下旬，内地市场唯一主投白银的国投瑞银LOF宣布限购且频繁停牌。 为此，投资者涌向了水贝这座全国最大的黄金珠宝批发市场，通过线下渠道抢购银条、银锭等实物白 银。部分人甚至被告知银条已被尽数预定，只得空手而归。 一时间，即便溢价出售的银条仍供不应求。在此期间，部分商家亦加入队伍，愿出高价向料商购入银 板、银条。 这也侧面反映出，这批银条大概率是商家的匆忙补货，柜台甚至还没来得及为其"腾出空间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent fluctuations in silver and gold prices, emphasizing the strong demand for silver and the subsequent market adjustments as supply issues ease. It notes a shift in investor focus back to gold despite silver's recent performance. Group 1: Market Dynamics - During the New Year holiday, the Shenzhen Shui Bei market continued trading, with some merchants stacking silver bars on top of gold bars due to space constraints, indicating a rush to replenish silver stock [1][6] - Silver prices surged approximately 140% in 2025, outperforming gold's 60% increase, leading to a significant shift in trading behavior from on-site to off-site [5][12] - The demand for physical silver led to a temporary shortage, with some investors unable to purchase silver bars, but this situation has since stabilized, with silver now available without pre-ordering [5][9] Group 2: Price Adjustments - As of January 4, silver prices in Shui Bei dropped to around 21 yuan, down from a peak of 23.2 yuan, while investment-grade silver bars averaged 19.5 yuan per gram [5][9] - The article notes that the recent volatility in silver and gold prices is partly due to increased margin requirements by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which has led to significant price corrections [10][12] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Despite the recent hype around silver, inquiries about gold investments during the New Year period remained higher than those for silver, indicating a continued preference for gold among investors [8][9] - The article suggests that the silver market may have experienced excessive speculation, as evidenced by the shift in focus back to gold and the stabilization of silver supply [9][12] Group 4: Future Outlook - The silver market is at a crossroads, with various factors influencing its future, including financial re-evaluations, supply-demand dynamics, and macroeconomic conditions [13] - Analysts predict that the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index could lead to significant sell-offs in both silver and gold, potentially impacting market stability [15][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment banking and brokerage industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating [8] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown weak overall performance this week, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) implementing multiple measures to promote high-quality development in the capital market, including new regulations on fund sales and the introduction of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) [2][4] - The insurance sector is expected to see improved return on equity (ROE) and valuation recovery, supported by trends such as the migration of deposits and increased equity allocation [4] - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, such as Jiangsu Jinzhong, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, while also highlighting the potential of New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.8% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.3%, ranking 27th out of 31 sectors [5] - Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has increased by 10.1%, but still lags behind the CSI 300 by 7.6%, ranking 20th out of 31 sectors [5] Key Industry News & Company Announcements - The CSRC has issued several important announcements, including the launch of commercial real estate REITs and revisions to fund sales regulations, aimed at enhancing the capital market [6] - Notable company announcements include Nanjing Securities completing a private placement of approximately 713 million A-shares, increasing its total share capital, and Guoyuan Securities planning to transfer its stake in Anyuan Fund to related parties [6] Insurance Sector Insights - In November 2025, the insurance industry achieved a cumulative premium income of 57,629 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.56%, with life insurance premiums growing by 9.06% [22][23] - The total assets of the insurance sector reached 40.65 trillion, with life insurance companies holding 35.75 trillion, indicating a stable asset allocation [26][27] Brokerage and Investment Business - The brokerage sector has seen a recovery in trading activity, with average daily trading volume reaching 21,283.16 billion, up 8.30% week-on-week [41] - Equity market performance has been declining, with the CSI 300 index down 0.59% and the ChiNext index down 1.25% [45] - Margin financing has increased, with a balance of 2.56 trillion, reflecting a 0.39% week-on-week rise [49] Capital Market Financing - In December 2025, equity financing reached 663.12 billion, a 30.9% increase, while bond financing totaled 7.34 trillion, up 4.0% [53] - The report anticipates an increase in stock underwriting volumes due to new refinancing regulations, while bond underwriting will be influenced by interest rate changes [53]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 从机构的赚钱效应来看，2025年在过去10年里能排到第三，过去20年里排到第六。 在一个回头来看巨大的结构性牛市当中，实际上市场既享受了预期差带来的"估值的钱"，也挣到了"业绩的钱"，预期差来 自于对中国自主科技能力的重估以及中美关系，而结构性的超预期业绩来自复杂贸易环境下外需的韧性以及AI推理需求爆 发，这些因素站在2025年初来看并不是那么理所应当会发生。 增量流动性只是预期差和业绩兑现过程中的结果，或者是用于后验的解释牛市形成的理由，投资者过于高估了增量资金对 市场的影响。因此，我们亦不会将增量资金入市当作是2026年市场上一个新台阶的主要因素。 我们认为2026年最大的预期差来自于外需与内需的平衡，对外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是个重要的开端。站 在开年，考虑到去年末的资金热度并不算高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高。 去年末的资金热度并不算高，开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高 1）2025年末，市场整体的"躁动"非常克制。大部分前期兑现收益的资金目前还在等待入场时机，这也意味着在没有重大 超预期风险的情况下 ...

（原标题：中国经济增速目标几何｜请回答，2026） "十四五"时期，中国GDP总量接连跨越110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元三个大台阶，2020—2024年 的年均实际增速为5.5%，远高于同期全世界3.9%的年均增速。中国2025年前三季度GDP增速达5.2%， 全年增速大概率在5%及以上。 作为"十五五"开局之年，2026年能否创造良好开局将深刻影响着未来五年的宏观经济增长走势。其中， 值得关注的一个焦点便是GDP增速目标几何。 此外，2035年中国远景目标是人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平，即经济总量或人均收入较2020 年翻一番。据测算，要实现该目标，2026—2035年GDP年均增速需保持在4.4%以上。这些都客观要求 要保持一定经济增速。 过去的数年，宏观经济和微观感受的"温差"是经济运行中一个值得关注的现象。今年中央经济工作会议 进一步释放了这样的信号：增长依然是重要的，但在增长之外，具体的问题和市场主体的感受也很重 要，需要政策着力解决、改善。会议提出："要全面贯彻明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向，坚持积 极务实的目标导向，着力解决存在的困难问题，在质的有效提升上取得更大突破，增强居 ...

2025年，中国资本市场浪潮奔涌，证券公司作为核心中介与市场"看门人"，其发展轨迹深刻牵动着金融 生态的稳定。证监会对证券行业"长牙带刺、有棱有角"的监管态度一以贯之，视合规管理为行业发展的 重要因素，以"零容忍"姿态打击违法违规行为，彰显了守护资本市场根基的坚定决心。 监管高压下，违规代价愈发凸显。截至2025年末，81家券商机构累计收到181张罚单，400名从业人员被 监管采取了监管措施，更有1.35亿元的巨额罚单指向违规券商高管。 合规风控是券商的"生命线"，这既是证监会的反复警示，也是行业发展的必然选择。从修订《证券发行 与承销管理办法》到出台分类评价新规，监管通过制度完善和"扶优限劣"机制，引导行业筑牢合规防 线。对于券商而言，唯有将合规嵌入业务全流程，强化内控管理，才能在高压监管下实现稳健发展，既 守护自身长远前景，也为资本市场高质量发展提供坚实保障。 81家券商机构被罚 国泰海通数量居首 经梳理Wind数据，南都·湾财社记者注意到，截至2025年末，81家券商机构（含分支机构或营业部）收 到共计181张罚单。具体来看，国泰海通收到的罚单数量最多，达到7张；申万宏源和申万宏源承销保荐 分别收到3张 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful establishment of the CITIC Construction - China State Construction Commercial Property Holding Real Estate Asset-backed Special Plan (code: 267556.SH) on December 30 marks a significant milestone for China State Construction in issuing its first office building holding-type real estate ABS in the inter-institutional market [1] Group 1 - The product represents the first inter-institutional REITs platform for China State Construction [1] - It is also the first inter-institutional REITs product for office buildings issued by China State Construction [1] - This issuance is notable as it is the first central enterprise inter-institutional REITs product in the Tianjin region [1]

Industry News - In 2025, China is set to achieve multiple breakthroughs in manned spaceflight, deep space exploration, and commercial aerospace, with a record 92 launches planned for the year, marking a significant milestone for the country's space ambitions [1] - The number of approved innovative drugs in China reached 76 in 2025, significantly surpassing the 48 approved in 2024, with a total transaction value of over $130 billion in licensing deals, also a record high [2] - The artificial intelligence industry is transitioning from a "model-driven" approach to a "data-driven" model, as evidenced by the successful trading of a "bodily intelligence dataset" in Jiangsu Province [2] Company News - Luxshare Precision announced that it is currently operating normally and there are no unusual circumstances affecting its business development, addressing recent rumors that have caused market confusion [4] - Xiaomi reported delivering 410,000 cars in 2025, with its factory receiving 130,000 visitors for tours and experiences throughout the year [4]

Core Insights - The A-share IPO market in 2025 is expected to stabilize, with a normalized process for acceptance, review, and issuance, reflecting a positive trend in the capital market [1] - The capital market is increasingly concentrating resources towards new productive forces, indicating a supportive environment for innovation and quality enterprises [11] Group 1: Acceptance and Review - The number of IPO applications accepted in 2025 reached 251, which is 3.26 times the 77 applications accepted in 2024, marking a significant recovery from the previous year's low [3] - The manufacturing sector leads in the number of applications, with notable contributions from chemical, industrial machinery, semiconductor, and automotive parts industries, showcasing the capital market's support for the real economy and tech enterprises [5] - A total of 117 companies were reviewed for IPOs in 2025, with 109 successfully passing, resulting in a review success rate of 93%, consistent with the previous year [5][7] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The introduction of differentiated regulatory policies for unprofitable companies has allowed firms like Dapu Microelectronics to successfully go public, enhancing the adaptability of regulations to technological innovation [7] - The concentration of underwriting firms is evident, with Guotai Junan Securities, CITIC Securities, and CITIC Jianzhong leading in the number of approved companies, indicating a significant competitive advantage [7] Group 3: Withdrawal Trends - The number of companies withdrawing their IPO applications has stabilized, decreasing from 26 in January to single digits in subsequent months, reflecting improved market conditions and company preparedness [9] - The main reasons for withdrawal include financial data not meeting standards, legal compliance issues, and insufficient information disclosure, highlighting the need for better internal controls and market timing for prospective IPO companies [11]

Core Insights - In 2025, a total of 40 companies were approved for mergers and acquisitions in the A-share market, achieving a 100% approval rate [1][9]. Independent Financial Advisors Performance Ranking - A total of 19 independent financial advisory firms participated in the 40 approved M&A projects, with the top three firms being: - First: Huatai United with 8 projects - Second: CITIC Construction with 7 projects - Third: CITIC Securities with 6 projects [1][11][12]. Legal Advisors Performance Ranking - 25 law firms were involved in the legal services for the 40 approved M&A projects, with the top three being: - First: Beijing King & Wood Mallesons with 5 projects - Second: Beijing Jiyuan with 4 projects - Third: Beijing Zhonglun, Shanghai Jintiancheng, and Zhejiang Tiancai, each with 3 projects [2][13][15]. Accounting Firms Performance Ranking - 19 accounting firms provided auditing services for the 40 approved M&A projects, with the top three being: - First: Tianjian with 9 projects - Second: Lixin with 7 projects - Third: Xinyong Zhonghe with 4 projects [4][16]. Asset Appraisal Agencies Performance Ranking - 20 asset appraisal agencies were involved in the asset evaluation for the 40 approved M&A projects, with the top three being: - First: Zhonglian Appraisal with 10 projects - Second: Jinzhen Appraisal with 5 projects - Third: Zhongqihua with 4 projects [6][17].