【导读】存储芯片暴涨，四大巨头齐创新高，日元跳水 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 存储芯片全线暴涨 1月28日晚间，美股三大指数上涨，标普500指数首次触及7000点，再创新高，但随后 涨幅较开盘时候 有所收窄。 23842.64 +25.54 +0.11% 35.17 万球友关注 交易中 01-28 10:59:41 美东时间 今开: 23965.11 量比: 1.54 最高:23988.26 52周最高: 24019.99 最低:23839.89 昨收:23817.10 52周最低: 14784.03 振幅:0.62% 成交量:30.28亿股 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 季K 年K 120分 60分 30分 15分 5分 1分 区间统计 全屏显示 最新:23842.88+25.78+0.11% 0.72% 13988.26 0.54% 23902.68 0.36% 23859.89 0.18% 23817.10 0.00% 23774.31 -0.18% 23731.51 -0.36% 23688.72 -0.54% 23645.93 -0.72% 成交量: 30.28亿股 ...

大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 存储芯片全线暴涨 1月28日晚间，美股三大指数上涨，标普500指数首次触及7000点，再创新高，但随后涨幅较开盘时候有所收窄。 | 了 筛选 | 最新价 ÷ | 涨跌幅 ⇒ □* | | --- | --- | --- | | 希捷科技 | 437.76 | +17.75% | | us STX | | | | 西部数据 | 274.66 | +8.71% | | us WDC | | | | 美光科技 | 430.05 | +4.83% | | us MU | | | | Sandisk Corporation \ | 507.97 | +5.51% | | us SNDK | | | | 了 筛选 | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = □' | | --- | --- | --- | | 英特尔 | 47.84 | +8.90% | | US INTC | | | | Sandisk Corporation | 507.33 | +5.38% | | us SNDK | | | | 美光科技 | 430.05 | +4.83% | | us MU | | | | Applo ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "speed + power" as the core contradiction in the future development of the AI industry, highlighting significant market movements in both speed and power sectors over the past year [1][9] - For 2026, the focus should be on observing the commercial closure rhythms of CSPs and large model vendors to grasp the overall industry beta, while actively seeking value expansion and capital expenditure shifts in specific segments [1][10] - The report suggests that capital expenditure (Capex) and return on investment (ROI) are critical variables in understanding computing power demand, which is primarily driven by token counts and Capex [1][10] Investment Strategy - The computing power industry is viewed as the foundation of technology, with a long-term positive outlook. The report recommends actively seeking value expansion and capital expenditure shifts in specific segments, maintaining the focus on "speed + power" [3][12] - Key areas of investment include domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, storage, and AI terminals [3][12] Capital Expenditure Analysis - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) have significantly increased their capital expenditures, with the top five CSPs' combined Capex reaching $308.1 billion in Q3 2025, a 75% year-on-year increase [24][27] - Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle are leading this trend, with Google and Microsoft showing particularly aggressive Capex growth to support AI infrastructure [27][28] - The report highlights that Google’s Capex for 2024 is projected to be $52.5 billion, a 63% increase year-on-year, while Microsoft’s Capex is expected to reach $75.6 billion, an 84% increase [27][28] AI Model and Chip Development - The report discusses the rapid iteration of Google's Gemini model family, which has introduced significant advancements in AI capabilities, including multi-modal understanding and enhanced reasoning abilities [36][41] - NVIDIA is identified as a key player in the computing power landscape, with its customer base including CSPs, large model vendors, and government clients, driving substantial revenue growth [24][30] - The report notes that the demand for AI chips is expected to grow, with companies like OpenAI forming strategic partnerships with major chip manufacturers to enhance their infrastructure [62][63] Domestic Computing Power Growth - The report anticipates a breakthrough year for domestic computing power in 2026, driven by the acceleration of domestic large models and positive capital expenditure outlook from cloud vendors [2][6] - The supply side is expected to transition from single-point breakthroughs to multi-point developments, indicating a robust growth trajectory for domestic computing power vendors [2][6] Semiconductor and Storage Opportunities - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as benefiting from an AI-driven storage supercycle, with equipment manufacturers poised to gain from original factory expansions [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving growth in the storage industry, predicting rapid expansion in this sector [2][8]

北京时间1月28日晚，美股周三早盘涨跌不一，标普500指数一度突破7000点大关。市场关注美联储利率 决议，并等待一些重要科技公司公布财报。投资者普遍预计周三美联储将维持基准联邦基金利率不变， 今年将降息两次。 道指跌30.17点，跌幅为0.06%，报48973.24点；纳指涨125.32点，涨幅为0.53%，报23942.42点；标普 500指数涨13.18点，涨幅为0.19%，报6991.78点。 半导体设备巨头阿斯麦（ASML）在报告创纪录订单并因人工智能热潮发布强劲的2026年业绩指引后， 其美股股价大涨。 存储基础设施公司希捷科技（STX）宣布第二季度盈利和营收超预期，股价飙升。该公司首席执行官戴 夫·莫斯利（Dave Mosley）指出人工智能数据存储需求强劲。 多家科技巨头即将公布财报。微软、Meta Platforms和特斯拉将于周三收盘后公布季度财务业绩，苹果 将于周四公布财报。 标普500指数前一交易日收涨0.4%至历史新高，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.9%。道琼斯指数30只成分股下 跌超400点，主要受联合健康股价暴跌近20%拖累。 除科技股财报外，据媒体周三报道称，英伟达H200人工智能芯 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are concerned about the return on massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI) as Microsoft and Meta Platforms prepare to release their earnings reports, which may provide insights into the profitability of such expenditures [1][4]. Group 1: Company Earnings and Market Reactions - Microsoft and Meta are among the top four companies in the U.S. for AI spending, with a projected capital expenditure of approximately $505 billion in 2026, up from an estimated $366 billion in 2025 [1]. - Since the last earnings report on October 29, 2022, Microsoft's stock has dropped by 11%, while Meta's stock has decreased by about 10%, contrasting with a 1.3% increase in the S&P 500 index during the same period [1]. - Investors are closely monitoring the return on investment for these expenditures, with Jonathan Kofsky from Janus Henderson emphasizing that quarterly evaluations will be critical [1][4]. Group 2: AI Spending and Market Implications - Any indication that Microsoft and Meta plan to invest more than expected in AI could pressure their stock prices, while benefiting companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron that stand to gain from such spending [4]. - Seagate has reported strong demand for high-capacity hard drives, which is expected to continue at least until 2027, positively impacting the stock prices of related companies [4]. - Kofsky noted that investor expectations are that results will often meet or exceed the upper limits of projections, particularly for AI infrastructure companies like Nvidia and TSMC [4]. Group 3: Microsoft and Meta's Specific Challenges - For Microsoft, the focus will be on its Azure cloud computing business, which is experiencing strong demand for AI service development and operation [5]. - Azure's revenue is expected to grow by 38% year-over-year in the second quarter, following a 39% increase in the first quarter [5]. - Investors are also interested in the progress of Microsoft's Copilot product, which is a key AI software tool for office workers, although details on its contribution to overall sales growth remain limited [5]. Group 4: Meta's Growth Pressure - Unlike Microsoft, Meta lacks a cloud computing business and relies on AI to enhance advertising targeting and user engagement on its social media platforms [6]. - Meta faces significant pressure to demonstrate how its AI spending translates into growth, especially after a previous drop in stock price following its commitment to increased capital expenditures without clear return timelines [6]. - Market expectations for Meta's fourth-quarter revenue are optimistic, projecting a 21% increase to $58.4 billion, with earnings per share expected to rise by 2.1% to $8.19 [5].

Core Insights - The focus of Wall Street is shifting towards "remaining performance obligations," a metric indicating future sales backlog from long-term contracts in the cloud computing sector, as companies like Microsoft and Amazon report earnings [1][2] - The surge in long-term commitments from AI companies to cloud service providers is reshaping the competitive landscape of the cloud market, with Microsoft surpassing Amazon in new order backlog [1][3] - Concerns arise regarding the actual realization of these sales commitments, highlighted by Oracle's case where a significant increase in backlog did not translate to stock price gains due to doubts about profitability and execution [1][6] Group 1: Remaining Performance Obligations - "Remaining performance obligations" is gaining attention as a financial metric that reflects future sales from long-term contracts, particularly in the context of AI companies making substantial commitments to cloud providers [2] - Analysts note that when order backlog diverges from revenue growth, it becomes a critical indicator for investors to monitor [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Amazon, while still holding the largest market share in cloud computing, has fallen behind Microsoft in terms of new order backlog since the launch of ChatGPT, with Google also emerging as a strong competitor [3] - Google's advancements in AI technology have allowed it to attract significant business from AI companies, altering the competitive dynamics in the cloud market [3] Group 3: Concerns Over Backlog Data - The data on order backlog has limitations, as different companies may have varying accounting methods, which can affect the comparability of the figures [4] - There are concerns about the reliability of these commitments, especially given past instances where companies renegotiated contracts to defer spending [4][5] Group 4: Oracle's Warning - Oracle's experience serves as a cautionary tale, where a massive increase in order backlog did not lead to positive market reactions due to skepticism about the profitability and realization of those contracts [6] - The market's response to the latest commitments from Microsoft, Amazon, and Google will be crucial in assessing investor sentiment regarding potential AI bubbles [6]

消息面上， 材料科学巨头康宁公司宣布与Meta达成一项长期协议，将向Meta供应总价值高达 60亿美元（约合人民币435亿元）的数据中心光纤电缆。 受此利好提振，康宁股价在当地时间 1月27日一度飙升超15%，创下近20年来的历史新高。 | | 109.740 +14.790 +15.58% | | | | 康宁(CORNING) 立即 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | GIV 父易 | | NYSE USD 20:04:00 | | | | | | 10+ | | 盘前价 | 106.070 涨幅盤 | -3.34% | 交生 | 25.33% 120日 | | 75.03% | | 涨跌跌 | -3.670 盘前量 | 19.80万 | 5日 | 18.55% 250日 | | 118.28% | | 三一 | 106.490 | 64 | 20日 | 22.52% 52周高 | | 96.64 | | 示一 | 106.090 | 100 | 60日 | 21.96% 52周低 | | 36.83 | | 总量 | ...

AI算力需求爆发正推动光通信产业升级。 1月28日，受全球AI基础设施投资加速催化，光通信相关个股高涨。A股方面，可川科技（603052）强 势涨停，奕东电子（301123）大涨7.44%，太辰光（300570）涨7.63%；港股市场同样情绪高涨，其中 长飞光纤（601869）光缆收涨15.43%。 作为协议的核心组成部分，康宁将大幅扩建其在美国北卡罗来纳州的制造能力。魏文德透露，当前市场 对光纤的需求极度旺盛，客户普遍急于锁定更多的产能。据他预测，随着AI算力建设的加速，明年"超 大规模云厂商"（Hyperscalers）将超越其他业务板块，成为公司的最大客户群体。 此次与Meta签署的协议，不仅是康宁历史上规模最大的单笔商业合同之一，也被视为科技巨头加码AI 基础设施的重要动作。Meta全球事务总裁乔·卡普兰（Joel Kaplan）表示，建设最先进的数据中心离不 开在光互连领域拥有深厚积累的顶级合作伙伴，康宁提供的技术能力，将成为Meta持续迭代AI基础设 施的重要支撑。 对于Meta而言，与康宁的协议是其雄心勃勃的AI基建计划的重要组成部分。1月12日，Meta CEO扎克伯 格宣布，将启动名为"Me ...

盘前市场动向 1. 1月28日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.04%，标普500指数期货涨0.37%，纳指期货涨 0.95%。 | = US 30 | 49,020.90 | 49,079.60 | 48,972.10 | +17.50 | +0.04% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 7,004.30 | 7.014.80 | 6,983.30 | +25.70 | +0.37% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 26,185.00 | 26,224.70 | 26,003.30 | +245.30 | +0.95% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌0.10%，英国富时100指数跌0.44%，法国CAC40指数跌0.96%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.03%。 | 德国DAX30 | 24,882.14 | 24,929.93 | 24,795.48 | -26.09 | -0.10% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英国富时100 | 10,1 ...

银、原油、燃料油期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期 2026年 1月期货主力（连续）合约行 情走势大概率如下： 2026 年 1 月 28 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金期货将再创历史新高 黄金、白 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 、 期 货 行 情 前 瞻 研 究 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 期货品 种 主力合 约 趋势 阻力位 支撑位 重点备注 股指 IF2603 偏强震荡 4756 ...