从基本面看，创新药业绩预告验证产业景气。信达生物、荣昌生物和君实生物预告2025年收入约 110/32.5/25亿元，分别同比增长45%/89%/31.8% 国金证券认为，2-3月有望迎来创新药企业的业绩披露窗口，多家药企有望迎来减亏或扭亏，同时预计 2026年更多创新药企业有望扭亏并大幅释放利润；展望全年，AACR（4月）、ASCO（5月）、ESMO （10月）等学术会议上国产创新药有望进一步带来临床数据的兑现；整体上，创新药前期回调较为充 分，向上产业趋势明确，催化近期密集，继续看好板块投资机会。 港股创新药上涨，截至发稿，港股通创新药ETF易方达(159316)涨2.89%，港股通医药ETF易方达 (513200)涨2.33%。 板块反弹主要受BD交易密集落地、预告业绩高增及流动性改善三重利好驱动。 创新药重磅BD频出：石药集团×阿斯利康：1月30日达成185亿美元合作（首付12亿美元），创中国药企 BD纪录； 信达生物×礼来：2月8日达成88.5亿美元合作（首付3.5亿美元），采用"端到端共研"模式； 2026年以来创新药BD首付款规模已超25年全年最高单季度水平，总交易金额达332.8亿美元（占25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the innovative drug sector, with significant gains in the ChiNext Innovative Drug ETF [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 11:08 on February 10, the ChiNext Innovative Drug ETF (589120) surged by 2%, marking a potential two-day consecutive rise [1]. - Major component stocks of the ETF, such as Rongchang Biopharma and Baili Tianheng, saw increases exceeding 5%, while others like Baijie Shenzhou rose over 4% [3]. Group 2: Key Component Stocks - The top ten component stocks of the ChiNext Innovative Drug ETF include: - J-Z**KD with a 4.04% increase and an estimated weight of 10.43% - Baili Tianheng with a 5.10% increase and an estimated weight of 7.89% - Rongchang Biopharma with a 5.51% increase and an estimated weight of 6.35% [4]. Group 3: Industry Developments - Innovent Biologics announced the approval of its ICP-538, a VAV1 molecular glue degrader, for clinical research, marking it as the first of its kind in China and the second globally [4]. - Baili Tianheng's recent shareholder meeting approved significant resolutions, including the issuance of debt financing tools and extending the validity of H-share issuance [5]. Group 4: Strategic Collaborations - Innovent Biologics entered a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly to advance the global development of innovative drugs in oncology and immunology, receiving an upfront payment of $350 million and potential milestone payments totaling up to $8.5 billion [5]. Group 5: Industry Growth and Trends - The Chinese innovative drug sector is transitioning from "pipeline expectations" to "performance realization," with over 70% of companies projected to achieve revenue growth by 2025 [8]. - The total value of License-out transactions for Chinese innovative drugs skyrocketed from $2.562 billion in 2017 to an estimated $140.274 billion by 2025, indicating a significant increase in global recognition [6]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Three key investment themes for 2026 in the innovative drug sector include: 1. Accelerated BD (Business Development) overseas, focusing on ADC, dual antibodies, and GLP-1RA [9]. 2. Policy support for innovative drug development, enhancing commercialization opportunities [9]. 3. Monitoring critical clinical data and commercialization milestones for new drugs [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The proportion of driver gene-negative non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients is approximately 31% in both China and the United States, indicating a significant market opportunity for treatments targeting this demographic [2][15] - The estimated market size for immune drugs used in first-line treatment of driver gene-negative NSCLC is projected to be around 7.5 billion CNY (approximately 1.1 billion USD) in China and 18 billion CNY (approximately 2.7 billion USD) in the United States by 2030 [2] - The current first-line treatment for advanced driver gene-negative NSCLC primarily relies on PD(L)-1 inhibitors combined with chemotherapy, but there are limitations in long-term efficacy and options for patients intolerant to chemotherapy [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: NSCLC Global Overview - Lung cancer is the leading cancer type globally, with new cases accounting for approximately 12% of all cancer cases in 2022, translating to about 2.5 million new lung cancer cases [10] - In China, lung cancer represents about 22% of new cancer cases, with approximately 1.06 million new cases in 2022 [10] Section 2: Market Potential for Driver Gene-Negative NSCLC - The report highlights the significant market potential for immune therapies in treating driver gene-negative NSCLC, with a focus on the limitations of current treatment options [2][3] Section 3: Next-Generation Immunotherapy Approaches - The report discusses the advancements in dual (multi) antibody therapies and immune-oncology (IO) combined with antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), emphasizing their potential to improve treatment outcomes for patients with driver gene-negative NSCLC [5][8] - The clinical data supporting these new therapies is expected to catalyze further investment and development in this area [5] Section 4: Treatment Guidelines Comparison - The report compares treatment guidelines for driver gene-negative NSCLC between the United States and China, noting differences in treatment stratification and recommended therapies [32][34] - The U.S. guidelines emphasize PD-L1 expression levels, while Chinese guidelines focus more on performance status (PS) [32][34] Section 5: Future Catalysts - Key upcoming clinical data releases and studies are highlighted as potential catalysts for investment opportunities in the sector, particularly regarding dual antibodies and ADC therapies [5][8]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market for innovative drugs is experiencing a strong rally, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570) rising over 3% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 1.3 billion yuan yesterday and over 1 billion yuan today, bringing its total size to over 25 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The innovative drug sector has seen significant interest, with the ETF's latest scale leading among its peers [1]. - Notable stocks within the ETF, such as Rongchang Biopharmaceutical and Zai Lab, have reported gains exceeding 6%, while others like Innovent Biologics and CSPC Pharmaceutical have also shown strong performance [4][5]. Group 2: Recent Developments - Recent collaborations in the innovative drug sector include a partnership between Fuhong Hanlin and Eisai for the commercialization of the anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody, with an upfront payment of $75 million and potential milestone payments totaling up to $300 million [3]. - Yunding Xinyao announced the approval of Etrasimod for the treatment of moderate to severe active ulcerative colitis in China, following a $224 million deal for exclusive rights in Greater China and South Korea [3]. - Innovent Biologics has entered a strategic collaboration with Eli Lilly to advance global R&D in oncology and immunology, with an upfront payment of $350 million and potential milestone payments of up to $8.5 billion [3]. Group 3: Analyst Recommendations - Analysts from Kaiyuan Securities suggest increasing allocation to the innovative drug sector, highlighting the valuation attractiveness of quality stocks and the potential for significant returns from companies with strong clinical data and overseas expansion prospects [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on innovative drugs that have shown resilience and potential for growth, particularly in the context of upcoming earnings reports in 2025 and early 2026 [6].

（2）创新药方面，2~3月为港股药企业绩披露窗口，多家有望迎来减亏或扭亏；展望全年，AACR(4 月)、ASCO(5月)、ESMO(10月)等学术会议渐次到来，国产创新药有望进一步带来临床数据的兑现。 关注港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）及其联接C（025806.OF），被动跟踪国证港股通科技指数，该 指数在恒生科技基础上，龙头权重更集中（阿里巴巴、腾讯控股合计占比30%），同时兼顾创新药龙头 （药明生物/信达生物/康方生物）。港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）在深圳证券交易所上市，并支持 T+0日内灵活回转交易，为A股投资者提供低门槛、免开跨境户和免换汇的便利。 2月10日盘初，港股AI应用、创新药板块延续昨日涨势。阅文集团、智谱涨超6%，快手-W涨超4%，药 明生物、康方生物、信达生物涨超2%，港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）盘中涨1%。 综合招商证券、国金证券等机构观点，港股科技资产前期回调较为充分，后市催化增多： （1）AI应用方面，腾讯、阿里纷纷在春节期间进行大模型宣传、快手可灵年化ARR超预期、DeepSeek 或在春节期间发布最新V4大模型。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in the early session, particularly in the innovative drug sector, indicating a robust demand for pharmaceuticals and a shift towards an "innovation-driven" revenue era in the industry [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Innovative drug stocks performed well, with notable gains: Zai Lab rose over 6%, CanSino Biologics-B increased over 5%, and Rongchang Biologics climbed over 4% [1] - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) rose over 2%, reflecting the positive sentiment in the sector [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Analysts attribute the pharmaceutical industry's ability to reach new highs despite ongoing challenges to the continuous demand for medical solutions and the increasing number of unmet needs [1] - Pharmaceutical companies are significantly increasing their R&D investments to address these unmet needs, positioning China as a key player in global innovative drug development [1] - The trend of overseas licensing has been rising year after year, further emphasizing the industry's shift towards innovation [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) tracks the National Index of Hong Kong Innovative Drugs, aiming to reflect the performance characteristics of listed companies in the innovative drug sector [1] - Investors can also access the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF through linked funds (Class A: 023929, Class C: 023930) to capitalize on the upward opportunities in the sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2][4]. Core Insights - The collaboration between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly has been upgraded, aiming to create a global innovative ecosystem for drug development in oncology and immunology. This partnership marks their seventh collaboration, enhancing their strategic relationship over more than a decade [2]. - The Chinese government has introduced a high-quality development plan for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), focusing on improving raw material supply, innovation, and manufacturing capabilities. The plan aims to establish a collaborative development system by 2030, with significant investments in TCM innovation [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The SW Pharmaceutical Biotechnology Index increased by 0.14% during the week of February 2 to February 8, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which decreased by 1.33%. The Chinese medicine sector saw a notable rise of 2.56% due to new policies, while vaccines and other bioproducts experienced declines [2]. Strategic Collaborations - Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly's new agreement includes a $350 million upfront payment and potential milestone payments of up to $8.5 billion, along with a tiered sales revenue sharing model for products outside Greater China. This partnership signifies a shift from traditional licensing to deeper integration of technology platforms and R&D systems [2]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights continued optimism for Chinese innovative drugs entering international markets, particularly in areas such as antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), dual antibodies, small nucleic acids, and weight-loss medications. Key companies to watch include Innovent Biologics, 3SBio, WuXi AppTec, and others [2].

研究报告 Research Report 9 Feb 2026 香港医疗 Hong Kong Health Care 医药行业周报（2026.02.02-2026.02.06）：市场情绪回暖；看好基本面表现强劲的创新药产业链龙头 Healthcare Weekly (2026.02.02-2026.02.06): Market Sentiment Warms; Bullish on Leaders in Innovative Drug Chain with Strong Fundamentals [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 百济神州 | Outperform 华润医药 | | Outperform | | 京东健康 | Outperform 国药控股 | | Neutral | | 药明生物 | Outperform 映恩生物 | | Outperform | | 信达生物 | Outperform 金斯瑞生物科 ...

Macro Commentary - The report indicates a slowdown in China's economic growth in Q1, but improvements in deflation are noted, with policymakers signaling a focus on stabilizing real estate, promoting consumption, and countering "involution" [2] - The US economy is expected to rebound, with rental inflation declining, offsetting a rise in commodity inflation, leading to a stable dollar liquidity environment [2] - The report anticipates only one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June this year, with a potential for a spring rebound in the stock market [2] Internet Sector - In January, high beta stocks benefitting from event-driven catalysts significantly outperformed the industry, aided by improved market risk appetite and liquidity [2] - Major Chinese internet companies are increasing market spending on AI applications targeting end-users, with 2026 identified as a critical year for capturing user engagement in the AI era [2] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,560, down 1.21% for the day but up 3.63% year-to-date, while the US markets showed a rebound with the Dow Jones up 2.47% [2] - The report highlights the performance of various indices, with the Hang Seng Financial Index down 1.89% and the Hang Seng Property Index up 17.49% year-to-date [3] Investment Strategy - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with certain profit growth and those benefiting from AI [5] - Specific stocks to watch include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou for their AI-driven growth potential, and NetEase and Trip.com for their stable earnings visibility [5] Software and IT Services - The report expresses optimism for the software sector, expecting revenue growth to support valuations, while cautioning about the competitive pressures from AI model vendors [6] - Recommended stocks include Palo Alto Networks in the US and Kingdee in China, which are expected to benefit from AI-related revenue growth [6] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is viewed positively, driven by AI demand, with structural shortages in memory products like HBM and server DRAM [7] - Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang and Northern Huachuang, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for computing power [7] Technology Sector - The report anticipates a continued high demand for AI computing infrastructure and innovations in consumer electronics, with specific recommendations for companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics [8] Consumer Sector - The Hang Seng Consumer Index has risen 8% year-to-date, driven by high elasticity in discretionary consumption sectors [9] - The report highlights the potential for increased consumer spending during the Spring Festival, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [10] Automotive Sector - January saw a slowdown in automotive sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, but a recovery is expected post-Spring Festival [11] - Recommended stocks include Geely for its expanding new energy vehicle matrix and Xpeng for its potential to turn profitable [11] Pharmaceutical Sector - The report emphasizes the long-term trend of innovative drugs going global, with a focus on clinical progress and data validation for drugs already in international markets [12] - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics and CanSino Biologics, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of drug commercialization [12] Capital Goods Sector - The report notes a positive outlook for the capital goods sector, particularly in construction machinery, driven by rising metal prices and increased mining capital expenditures [21] - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for construction equipment [21] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector is optimistic due to favorable policies, with the Hang Seng Property Index rising 15% year-to-date [19] - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao and Greentown China, which have shown significant price increases [19]

Macro and Strategy Research - In January 2026, the central bank's liquidity net injection reached 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 400 billion yuan compared to December 2025, indicating a supportive stance on liquidity [3] - The issuance of interest rate bonds in January 2026 totaled 2.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 600 billion yuan, with significant growth in government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds [4] - The bond market outlook suggests that if the liquidity remains stable, interest rate bonds may show a strong oscillation pattern, with a focus on 3-year bonds and ultra-long-term bonds for potential gains [5] Industry Research - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is seeing a concentration of performance forecasts, with key developments including the approval of new drugs and significant partnerships among companies [10][11] - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology index saw a decline of 0.97% in the week of January 30 to February 5, 2026, with the industry’s price-to-earnings ratio at 51.01 times, reflecting a 261% premium over the CSI 300 index [11] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences, as well as monitoring companies that are expected to show a turnaround in performance [12]