Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The near - month futures market generally follows the spot price trend, with the market opening high and closing low today, while the far - month market remains volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The subsequent index center is expected to gradually rise [6]. - The shipping demand from December to January is expected to gradually improve, and the supply of shipping capacity has changed slightly. The geopolitical situation may have an impact on fuel costs and the trade pattern, but currently, the impact on shipping routes is limited [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - On January 7, 2026, EC2602 closed at 1,779.1 points, a - 5% decline from the previous day's closing price. On December 26, the SCFI European line quote was $1,690/TEU, a + 10.24% increase month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European line index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on Monday was 1,795.83 points, a + 3% increase month - on - month, slightly lower than expected [6]. - In terms of spot freight rates, MSK has adjusted its prices. Other shipping companies have also set different price ranges for January. The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports from January to March 2026 is 306,100/271,900/283,300 TEU per week on average, with slight changes at the beginning of the week. The FAL8 route of the OA Alliance will add an 8,500 - TEU ship at the end of January and an empty voyage in February [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Consider closing all long positions in EC2602 at high prices and pay attention to the rhythm of the freight rate reaching the peak [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait for opportunities to enter the market at low prices for the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 2. Industry News - China is considering tightening the export license review of rare earths to Japan, which may have a significant impact on the Japanese economy [10]. - Trump announced that the interim authorities in Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of high - quality, sanctioned crude oil to the United States [10]. - Iran stated that it is ready to respond decisively to any aggression or hostile behavior [11].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The valuation center of the February contract is continuously rising, and Maersk's quotes are slightly increasing. The EC2602 contract's valuation continues to climb as online quotes from MSC and Maersk rise in the fourth week of January. The 02 contract's valuation support is estimated to be between 1820 - 1920 points under relatively pessimistic assumptions. Near - term, attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of January [1][5][7]. - Far - month contracts face pressure from the potential reopening of the Suez Canal, which may suppress their valuations, but the extent of the impact remains uncertain. Contracts in the off - season face valuation pressure, while contracts in June and August (slightly peak seasons) still have uncertain prospects. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels (over 17000 TEU) in the first half of 2026 is relatively small [7]. - The strategy suggests a bullish and volatile trend for the February contract, and there is currently no arbitrage opportunity [9]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Futures Prices - As of January 6, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures is 58,675.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 34,329.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1872.70, 1223.80, 1417.00, 1533.20, 1105.30, and 1313.20 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote in the third week of January is 1635/2630, and in the fourth week it is 1680/2700. HPL's quotes also change over different periods. OA alliance's offline prices in the first half of January are around 2800 - 2900 dollars/FEU, and the actual freight rates are relatively firm [1][2][5]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. In terms of future delivery expectations, the delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU vessels in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships each year [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January is 318,600 TEU, in February it is 283,500 TEU, and in March it is 272,400 TEU. There are different numbers of empty sailings and TBNs (To Be Notified) in each month [4]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Saudi Arabia has invited Yemeni local armed forces for dialogue, and the Southern Transitional Council has expressed its welcome. The potential reopening of the Suez Canal is expected to impact the freight rates of far - month contracts. Currently, some shipping routes have started to resume operations, such as CMA's FAL1 and FAL3 routes, and Maersk has tentatively resumed its Red Sea route [3][7]. V. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery and settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. In normal years from 2017 - 2019, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate was roughly between 600 - 1200 dollars/FEU, corresponding to SCFIS of about 600 - 1400 points [5][7].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月07日 (原油) 夜盘油价遭遇回调，近期油价呈现剧烈波动特点。伊朗局势持续紧张但目前仍在可控范围内，市场 对地缘风险紧张情绪逐渐趋弱,盘面呈现高位卖压与空头增仓。地缘风险能否有效提振油价,取决 于其是否对供应造成实质性减量，否则对油价的影响将仅限于短期波动，且盘面反应力度会逐步减 弱。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属延续强势。美国对委内瑞拉军事行动以及特朗普一系列强势言论体现全球地缘乱局延 续，贵金属牛市逻辑不改，资金情绪主导剧烈波动，短期关注前高位置能否再度实现突破，维持多 头参与思路。今晚关注美国ADP就业、ISM非制造业PMI以及职位空缺数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价记录位置震荡，沪铜关注仓量变动。花旗上调短线铜目标位至1.4万美元、约10.8-10.9万 一线，中长线维持1.3万美元；高盛表示铜实际需求承压，不过走势关键在美伦价差，昨日两市价差 收窄到50美元。国内观铜走高到103665元，上海贴水20元，精废价差6100元。因跨年涨势快LME实 值期权多头履约密集，伦铜短线目标扩至1.35万美元。观望，前期2602期权组合策略减仓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - MSK's week 4 price still rose by $100, and the spot price was stronger than expected (similar to the 08 contract). It is expected that the 02 contract will operate strongly [2]. - The 04 contract is expected to operate strongly in the near - term due to position transfer and basis convergence. It is still recommended to wait for opportunities to short the 04 contract on rallies [2]. - The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors and are difficult to have an independent market in the short - term. Under the long - term logic of resuming navigation and off - season, the main strategy for the 10 contract is to go short on rallies (as the 10 contract has the lowest price and is most likely to be pulled up by funds in case of geopolitical reversal news) [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - **Yesterday's Closing Price and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2602, FC2604, EC2606, FC2608, and EC2610 were 1872.7, 1223.8, 1417.0, 1533.2, and 1105.3 respectively, with changes of 0.95%, 2.15%, 2.02%, 2.06%, and 2.10% [2]. - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2602 decreased by 1050 to 24996, while that of FC2604 increased by 1301 to 23930, EC2606 increased by 125 to 2326, and EC2610 increased by 129 to 6184 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 were 648.9 and - 193.2 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 8.6 and - 2.2 [2]. Index Data - **Scale Index**: The scale index (European line) was 3387.69 on January 6, 2025 (updated weekly on Mondays), down 3.59% from the previous period [2]. - **SCH Index**: The SCH index (European line) was $1690/TEU on December 26, 2025 (updated weekly on Fridays), up 10.24% from the previous period [2]. European Line Spot Situation - **Week 2**: MSK's price remained flat at $2500, but the opening price at Hamburg Port was $2600 (+100). Some PA prices decreased, while OA prices increased. The central price was $2860, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market [2]. News - Some shipping companies issued price increase letters in mid - January. On January 1, MSC announced price increases for 20GP and 40GP containers on the European line to $2400 and $4000 respectively in the second half of January [2]. - MSK's opening price for week 3 was $2600, a $100 increase compared to the previous week. The opening price for week 4 was $2700, also a $100 increase from week 3 [2]. Geopolitical News - On January 1, the Israeli military chief of staff said they would continue to disarm Hamas. - On January 6, the Israeli Defense Forces started to strike Hezbollah and Hamas targets in Lebanon due to cease - fire violations. - On January 7, Iran warned that it might launch pre - emptive strikes if it perceived an imminent threat to its security [3].

期货研究 41 集运指数（欧线）：现货市场博弈性增加，高位震 荡 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 昨日成交 昨日持仓 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 前日成交/持仓 EC2602 1,801.3 0.52% 21,505 24,130 -3,725 0.89 0.89 EC2604 1,166.0 0.06% 4,507 20,919 -322 0.22 0.34 EC2512 - EC2604 单位 SCFIS：欧洲航线 点 SCFIS：美西航线 点 单位 SCFI：欧洲航线 $/TEU SCFI：美西航线 $/FEU $/40'GP $/20'GP Maersk 37 2610 1625 MSC 47 3140 1880 OOCL 37 3130 1830 EMC 30 3510 2255 CMA 38 3293 1859 ONE 57 2835 2110 HPL 46 3035 1835 HMM 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the EC2602 contract, as it enters the delivery logic and the subsequent price - decline rhythm is hard to predict, it is not recommended to enter the market at the current level [3]. - The EC2604 contract has a moderately high valuation, but there is a short - term upward risk. The strategy is mainly to go short at high levels [3]. - The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Under the long - term logic of resumption of navigation and off - season, the strategy for the EC2610 contract is mainly to go short when the price rises [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1801.3 with a 0.35% increase; EC2604 at 1166.0 with a 0.50% increase; EC2606 at 1367.9 with a - 0.11% decrease; EC2608 at 1500.0 with a - 0.01% decrease; EC2610 at 1060.0 with a 0.38% increase [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2602 was 21505, and the open interest was 24130 with a decrease of 3725; for EC2604, the trading volume was 4507, and the open interest was 20919 with a decrease of 322; for EC2606, the trading volume was 414, and the open interest was 2152 with a decrease of 78; for EC2608, the trading volume was 65, and the open interest was 1195 with a decrease of 1; for EC2610, the trading volume was 319, and the open interest was 6024 with a decrease of 60 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 635.3, with a daily increase of 0.4 and a weekly increase of 0.1; the spread of EC2504 - 2606 was - 201.9, with a daily increase of 7.9 and a weekly decrease of 46.4 [2]. - **Spot Indicators**: The SCEIS (for the European line) was 1742.64 on December 29, 2025, with a 9.66% increase from the previous period and a 5.21% increase from the period before the previous one; the SCH (for the European line) was 1690 dollars/TEU on December 26, 2025, with a 10.24% increase from the previous period and a - 0.3% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. Spot Situation in the European Line - **Week 2**: MSK's price was flat at 2500 dollars, but the price at Hamburg Port was 2600 dollars (+100). PA had some price drops, and OA had price increases. The central price was 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the disk [4]. - **Price Increase Notices**: Some shipping companies issued price - increase notices for January. MSC announced price increases for 20GP and 40GP containers on the European line to 2400/4000 dollars respectively in the second half of January [4]. - **Week 3**: MSK's opening price was 2600 dollars, and the price at Hamburg was 2700 dollars (+100) [4]. News - **Military Actions**: On January 1, 2026, the Israeli military chief of staff stated that the Israeli army would continue to disarm Hamas. On January 4, Saudi Arabia carried out an air strike on Yemen's eastern province of Mahra [5]. Graphs - The report includes graphs such as the EC main - contract price trend, EC forward curve, price ratio between different contracts (02/04, 04/06), shipping - company quotation structure (converted to the disk), European - line spot freight - rate index, and freight - rate indices of other routes (TCI of various regions) [6][7][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The online quotes of shipping lines such as MSC and Maersk increased in the second half of January, causing the valuation of the 02 contract to rise continuously [1][4][5]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract," including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [4]. - The far - month contracts are under pressure from the resumption of the Suez Canal, and their valuations may be revised downward, but there is still uncertainty in the adjustment space. Contracts in June and August, which are relatively peak seasons, still face uncertainty [6]. - The 02 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the unilateral strategy, and there is no recommendation for the arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 4, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 54,478 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 26,823 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1801.30, 1166.00, 1367.90, 1500.00, 1060.00, and 1297.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - Shipping lines' online quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route changed in January. For example, Maersk's quote in the second week of January was 1600/2580, and in the third week it was 1625/2610; HPL's quote in the first half of January was 1835/3035, and in the second half it was 2135/3535. MSC's price in the first half of January was 1700/2840, and in the second half it was 1880/3140 [1]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on December 26 was 1690 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2188 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3033 dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on December 29 was 1742.64 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1301.41 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply Static Supply - As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU [2]. - For ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, the expected delivery in 2026 is 781,200 TEU (53 ships), 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, the expected delivery in 2026 is 210,400 TEU (9 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029 [2]. Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in January was 318,600 TEU, with capacities of 355,600, 309,400, 330,700, and 278,700 TEU in Weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively. In February, the average weekly capacity was 283,500 TEU, and in March it was 272,400 TEU [3]. - There were 3 blank sailings (2 by the OA Alliance and 1 by the PA Alliance) and 1 TBN (1 by the OA Alliance) in January, 7 TBNs (4 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 4 blank sailings in February, and 3 blank sailings and 7 TBNs in March [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is progressing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, CMA's FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) has fully resumed operation since January 2026, and the FAL3 route has started a single - trial operation. Maersk's container ship "Maersk Sebarok" completed its first Red Sea voyage since its withdrawal in January 2024 on December 19, 2025 [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy No relevant detailed analysis content provided in the text.

Core Insights - The shipping industry in 2025 experienced significant changes driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, affecting port fees and operational costs [2][4] - The transition towards decarbonization and digitalization has become essential for companies to navigate challenges, with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) delaying the adoption of the Net-Zero Framework, impacting regulatory certainty [2][9] - The emergence of new shipping routes and supply chains, such as the Simandou iron ore project, is reshaping global shipping dynamics and demand [2][11] Group 1: US-China Port Fee Dispute - In 2025, the US and China escalated their policy conflict to the level of port fees, with the US imposing fees on certain Chinese vessels starting October 14, 2025, followed by China's retaliatory fees [4] - The suspension of these fees on November 10, 2025, led to a restructuring of shipping routes and strategies, with a notable decline in freight rates and a shift in capacity deployment [4][5] - The compliance premium has been systematically priced into various operational aspects, affecting costs and accessibility across the shipping industry [5] Group 2: IMO Net-Zero Framework Delay - The IMO's Net-Zero Framework was delayed until 2026 due to unresolved key issues, pushing back the industry's need for regulatory certainty and extending the uncertainty window for investments [9][10] - Despite the delay, the overall goals of the IMO 2023 reduction strategy remain unchanged, creating a paradox where regulatory delays coexist with ongoing industry actions towards decarbonization [9] - Shipping companies are increasingly focusing on tangible emission reductions and diversifying fuel strategies, including LNG, methanol, and future zero-carbon fuels [9] Group 3: Simandou Iron Ore Project - The Simandou iron ore project commenced commercial operations in November 2025, with the first shipment of approximately 200,000 tons of high-grade iron ore to China [11] - This project is expected to create a new long-haul shipping route from West Africa to China, significantly impacting the dry bulk market and potentially replacing some Australian iron ore routes [11] - The project's success will depend on the stability and reliability of its export rhythm and the efficiency of its transportation infrastructure [11] Group 4: Container Shipping Market Dynamics - In 2025, container shipping companies shifted their competitive focus from fleet size to reliable delivery capabilities, driven by increased market uncertainty [12][16] - Major players like MSC expanded their capacity significantly, leading to heightened competition and a simultaneous push towards integrated logistics and terminal control [12][16] - The trend of integrating logistics and terminal operations is expected to continue, although it may introduce asset burden and return on invested capital (ROIC) pressures if freight rates decline [13] Group 5: Shadow Fleet and Sanctions - The global shadow fleet, involved in transporting sanctioned oil, reached approximately 1,423 vessels, with 921 already sanctioned by the US and its allies [19] - Enforcement methods have shifted from financial sanctions to direct maritime actions, with the US actively seizing vessels involved in transporting oil from Venezuela [19][20] - The expansion of the shadow fleet has increased the premium for compliant vessels, while also raising operational risks and insurance costs [19] Group 6: Chinese Shipbuilding Dominance - Despite temporary disruptions from US port fees, Chinese shipbuilding orders rebounded quickly, maintaining a dominant position with over 60% of global orders [21][23] - In the first half of 2025, China received new orders totaling approximately 44.33 million deadweight tons, while deliveries were around 24.13 million deadweight tons, indicating a backlog in shipbuilding capacity [23] - The profitability of Chinese shipyards is improving, providing cash flow for continued investment in advanced and green ship designs [23] Group 7: Electric Vessels and Green Transition - 2025 marked a significant push towards electric vessels in China's inland and coastal shipping, with numerous electric cargo ships launched and operational [24][25] - The Chinese government supported the transition to clean energy vessels, with plans for 1,000 new energy vessels over the next five years [25] - Internationally, notable advancements in electric vessel technology were observed, indicating a shift towards larger and faster electric ships [25] Group 8: Crew Welfare and Regulations - The importance of crew welfare gained prominence in 2025, with new agreements enhancing protections and raising minimum wages for seafarers [26][27] - The industry is increasingly recognizing crew welfare as a measurable management issue, driven by rising health and psychological risks among seafarers [27] - Future focus will be on implementing actionable governance for crew welfare and integrating respect for seafarers into compliance and delivery standards [27] Group 9: Emerging Markets and Nationalization of Shipping - Emerging markets are increasingly elevating shipping and port development as national strategic initiatives, with India leading by establishing a maritime development fund [28][29] - Investments in port infrastructure and shipping capabilities are being made to enhance regional hub positions, with significant projects underway in various emerging markets [28][29] - This trend suggests that competition in the future will extend beyond shipping routes to include vessel registration, compliance, and local service capabilities [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate, and the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. Arbitrage: None available [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Maersk in the third week of January increased month - on - month, and the inflection point of freight rates still needs to be awaited. The cargo volume in December and January was at a relatively high level within the year. The valuation center of the 02 contract is constantly rising. The far - month contracts are facing the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations are suppressed [1][4][5] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Futures Price - As of December 30, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 58,662.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 33,696.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1795.10, 1160.20, 1370.00, 1500.10, 1056.00, and 1308.00 respectively [6] II. Spot Price - On December 26, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1690/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was $2188/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was $3033/FEU. On December 29, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1742.64 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1301.41 points [6] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In January, the average weekly capacity was 306,200 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK2/3/4/5 were 314,900/278,900/333,100/298,000 TEU respectively. In February, the average weekly capacity was 274,500 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK6/7/8/9 were 316,800/319,200/217,800/244,400 TEU respectively. In January, there were 3 blank sailings (2 by the OA Alliance and 1 by the PA Alliance) and 1 TBN (1 by the OA Alliance). In February, there were 7 TBNs (4 by the OA Alliance, 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 4 blank sailings (1 by the OA Alliance, 2 by the PA Alliance, and 1 by the Gemini Alliance). As of December 28, 2025, 260 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.103 million TEU [3][6] IV. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan for Gaza is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, Hapag - Lloyd said that if the Suez Canal resumes navigation, it is likely to happen after the Spring Festival in 2026. The resumption of the Suez Canal means an increase in effective capacity supply and the risk of further depressing freight rates [5] V. Demand and European Economy - The report does not provide specific content on this part, but the cargo volume in December and January was at a relatively high level within the year, and the signing process of long - term contracts by the OA Alliance and PA Alliance has accelerated [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European line) fluctuated at a high level yesterday [11]. - For the 2602 contract, the core issues are freight rate height, inflection point time, and price - decline rate [11]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher win - rate, and its bottom valuation can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, with several potential upward risks in the next 1 - 2 months [13]. - For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza and set up short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2602 closed at 1,795.1, down 2.08% with a trading volume of 24,777 and an open interest of 27,855 (down 2,582); EC2604 closed at 1,160.2, down 0.38% with a trading volume of 7,238 and an open interest of 21,241 (up 4) [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: SCFIS European route was 1,742.64 points, up 9.7% week - on - week; SCFIS US - West route was 1,301.41 points, up 35.3% week - on - week. SCFI European route was $1,690/TEU, up 10.2% bi - weekly; SCFI US - West route was $2,188/FEU, up 9.8% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different carriers' spot freight rates for the European line from Shanghai to Rotterdam vary, such as Maersk's $2,600/40'GP and $1,620/20'GP, with different voyage days [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.01, and the US dollar against offshore RMB was 7.00 [1]. 3.2 Capacity - In the past week, the absolute value of January capacity changed little, about 313,000 TEU/week, with a more even distribution of sailings in January. The fifth - week supply increased slightly to 328,000 TEU. February currently has 7 blank sailings and 5 pending sailings, with an average weekly capacity of 278,000 TEU/week (excluding the 5 pending sailings). GEMINI Alliance has released the Spring Festival suspension plan, while other carriers are expected to release theirs in early January [11]. 3.3 Analysis of Contracts - **2602 Contract** - **Freight Rate Height**: Maersk's rates increased by $100 in the third week. OA Alliance's OOCL's online prices are between $3,000 - $3,100/FEU, and Evergreen's offline prices are between $2,800 - $2,900/FEU. PA Alliance adjusted FAK to around $2,800/FEU in the first half of January [12]. - **Inflection Point Time**: With Maersk's price increase in the third week, the spot inflection point may be in the fourth week [12]. - **Price - decline Rate**: The initial decline after the freight rate peaks may be small, and the accelerated decline may start in the fifth week [12]. - **2604 Contract** - Short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher win - rate. Its bottom valuation can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index (1,031 points). There are several potential upward risks in the next 1 - 2 months, including contract - changing subsidy risks, margin - increasing and position - reducing risks before the Spring Festival, geopolitical risks during the festival, and carriers' price - increasing risks after the festival [13]. - **2610 Contract** - Pay attention to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza and set up short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term [13]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [14]