Group 1: Precious Metals Surge - The global silver market has experienced an "epic" short squeeze, with the main silver contract in Shanghai soaring by 14% on January 26, reaching over 30 yuan per gram, while gold surpassed 1150 yuan per gram, both hitting historical highs [1][4] - Since the beginning of 2026, the A-share precious metals sector has risen by 69.8%, significantly outperforming other sectors, while the non-ferrous metals sector has increased by 30.85% [1][3] - In the first 17 trading days of the year, the gold stock ETF (517400) rose by 38.06%, and the mining ETF (561330) increased by 26.89% [1] Group 2: Underlying Logic of Precious Metals Rally - The surge in precious metals is driven by heightened international geopolitical tensions, particularly actions taken by the Trump administration, including military actions and withdrawal from international organizations [4][6] - The ongoing geopolitical instability has led to increased global demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with many countries significantly increasing their gold purchases since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6][7] - Countries are planning to repatriate gold reserves from the U.S. due to concerns over geopolitical safety, with Germany and several African nations planning to return over 400 tons of gold [7][10] Group 3: Super Cycle in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has also seen significant price increases, with the mining ETF (561330) showing a 106.11% rise in 2025, making it the top performer among all non-ferrous ETFs [16] - Prices of various non-ferrous metals, including tin, nickel, and lithium, have shown substantial weekly increases, indicating strong demand and supply constraints [18][19] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have made non-ferrous resources strategic assets, leading to increased control and demand for these materials globally [20][21] Group 4: Institutional Outlook - Major investment banks are bullish on gold prices, with Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month gold price target from $4800 to $5500, citing geopolitical risks and the ongoing demand from central banks [23] - Morgan Stanley has also increased its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 from $4600 to $5300, emphasizing the beginning of a global reserve asset restructuring [23] - The demand for non-ferrous metals is expected to grow due to macroeconomic factors and industry-specific needs, with institutions favoring copper, aluminum, cobalt, and rare earths as key investment areas [23][26]

1月26日，国际金价再创新高，现货价格和期货价格先后突破5000美元/盎司、5100美元/盎司关口。资 本市场上，黄金股亦同步大涨，湖南黄金（002155.SZ）、白银有色（601212.SH）、中金黄金 （600489.SH）纷纷涨停。 同日晚间，紫金矿业（601899.SH/02899.HK）公告，其控股的紫金黄金国际有限公司（以下简称"紫金 黄金国际"，02259.HK）拟以44加元/股的现金价格，收购Allied Gold Corporation（以下简称"联合黄 金"，AAUC）全部已发行的普通股，收购对价共计约55亿加元（约合人民币280亿元）。 就在前一日，湖南黄金刚披露了发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易预案，拟整合万古矿区金 矿资源并增加黄金冶炼业务。 在金价持续走强行情下，矿企们正纷纷推进对金矿资源的布局。除上述案例外，洛阳钼业 （603993.SH）也于近期完成金矿资产收购。同时，在拍卖市场上还出现了溢价超4000倍的天价金矿， 并创下甘肃省金属矿种最高成交纪录。 1月26日，有金矿企业人士向时代周报记者表示，黄金是市场中"确定性"的金属品类。在地缘政治扰 动、美联储进一步降息预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a historic surge, with silver and gold prices reaching all-time highs due to geopolitical tensions and increased demand from central banks and investors [2][4][11]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - As of January 26, 2026, the main silver contract in Shanghai surged by 14%, surpassing 30 yuan per gram, while gold reached 1150 yuan per gram, marking significant increases [2]. - The A-share precious metals sector has risen by 69.8% year-to-date, outperforming all other sectors, while the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 30.85% [2]. - Year-to-date, the Gold Stock ETF (517400) has risen by 38.06%, and the Mining ETF (561330) has increased by 26.89% [2]. Group 2: Underlying Drivers of Precious Metals Surge - The surge in precious metals is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly actions taken by the Trump administration, including military interventions and withdrawal from international organizations [6][10]. - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the geopolitical climate have led to increased global demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with many countries significantly increasing their gold reserves [11][12]. - A notable trend is the repatriation of gold reserves by various countries, including Germany and several African nations, driven by concerns over the safety of gold stored in the U.S. [12]. Group 3: De-dollarization and Its Impact - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with Denmark's decision to sell U.S. Treasury bonds signaling a potential shift among other central banks towards buying gold instead [13]. - The share of U.S. Treasury bonds in global central bank reserves has fallen below 25%, while gold's share has risen to 28.9%, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [16]. - A recent survey by the World Gold Council revealed that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings in 2026, the highest proportion in recent years [17]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by export controls from major silver-producing countries, leading to a significant delivery shortfall on the COMEX [20][21]. - As of late January 2026, the deliverable silver inventory on COMEX was only 29% of total inventory, with a delivery gap exceeding 65% [20]. Group 5: Non-Ferrous Metals Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has also seen substantial growth, with the Mining ETF (561330) recording a 106.11% increase in 2025, making it the top-performing sector [24]. - Prices for various non-ferrous metals, including tin, nickel, and lithium, have shown significant weekly increases, reflecting strong demand [25]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have made non-ferrous resources strategic assets, leading to increased control and investment in these sectors by various countries [27]. Group 6: Institutional Outlook - Major investment banks are bullish on gold and non-ferrous metals, with Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month gold price target from $4800 to $5500, citing geopolitical risks and de-dollarization as key drivers [31]. - Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also adjusted their gold price forecasts upward, indicating a consensus among institutions regarding the bullish outlook for precious metals [31]. - The strong inflow of funds into gold and mining ETFs further supports the positive sentiment in these sectors, with significant net inflows recorded in early 2026 [32].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share non-ferrous metal market has shown a comprehensive strengthening trend since 2026, with the non-ferrous metal index rising by 24.31%, significantly outperforming the broader market. Precious metals (silver, gold) and minor metals (tungsten, tin) have performed particularly well, with price increases notably higher than industrial metals (lead, aluminum) [2][6]. Market Overview - The report titled "Comprehensive Analysis of the Non-Ferrous Metal Industry" systematically reviews the current non-ferrous metal market from multiple dimensions, including macro strategic environment, industry chain dynamics, competitive landscape, and industry trends, providing a reference for market decision-makers [2]. Price and Production Changes - Certain metals have entered an upward price channel, indicating a structural increase rather than a comprehensive recovery. The industry is transitioning from a low point to recovery, with a clear differentiation between strong and weak products [6][10]. - Global major metal varieties face significant supply constraints due to declining resource grades, insufficient capital expenditure, and geopolitical disturbances. Export restrictions from resource-rich countries are tightening, impacting the industry's international trade dynamics [10]. Demand Resilience - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, energy storage, and AI computing centers are becoming core drivers of demand. For instance, China's new energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 16.49 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.17%, boosting demand for copper, aluminum, and rare earths [11][22]. Market Price Support - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for China's non-ferrous metal manufacturing is expected to rise to 117.200 in 2025, up from 113.200 in 2024, indicating robust industry demand [12]. Policy Environment - The policy environment is shifting from "cyclical adjustment" to "strategic resource management," accelerating industry upgrades. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined plans for the non-ferrous metal industry to achieve an average annual growth of around 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026 [13][16]. Industry Integration and Technological Support - Policies encourage mergers and acquisitions among large smelting enterprises and support the technological research and industrial application of high-end new materials like magnesium alloys and tungsten [14]. Resource Recycling - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is pushing for greener production of high-energy-consuming metals. By the end of 2025, 30% of the electrolytic aluminum industry's capacity is expected to meet benchmark energy efficiency levels [15]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the industrial metals sector is stable, with leading companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum Company maintaining strong positions through global resource layouts and price elasticity [43][44]. - In the energy metals sector, companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are leading with a dual drive of resources and technology, while Huayou Cobalt leads in the nickel sector with a collaborative model [47][48]. Long-term Trends - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to maintain a structurally tight balance in supply and demand, with resource-constrained metals remaining tight in the long term. However, the supply-demand gap will exhibit differentiation across varieties and phases, indicating significant structural opportunities rather than systemic trends [54][55].

要是你觉得它只是趁金价涨捞一笔就走，那可太小看它的算盘了。洛阳钼业早就盘算好了如何拿捏金矿 的话语权。早在去年五月，它就悄悄布下了另一枚大棋，拿下了厄瓜多尔的一座金矿，那边3年后投 产，每年又能多贡献11.5吨左右的黄金。 (文案 | 王晓潇、出镜 | 刘相君、剪辑 | 刘相君) 一手抓巴西的"当下收益"，稳赚眼前钱，一手赌厄瓜多尔的"未来潜力"，一布局好几年后，这牌打得既 有速度又有纵深。 金价又又又涨了！现货黄金一度冲破5100美元/盎司，涨得让人目瞪口呆，连高盛都连夜改稿，把预期 直接喊到了5400美元。 肯定有人要问了，洛阳钼业豪掷百亿买矿的底气哪来的？翻开它的家底就明白了，它的老本行——铜、 钴、钼这些金属，过去一年简直全面开挂。铜价涨幅近40%；钴的价格更夸张，从低位强势反弹，单单 去年四季度就飙涨四成多，势头猛得吓人。靠着这些主业的爆发，2025年归母净利润直接突破200亿大 关，同比增长50%，有这样的账本撑腰，买矿自然毫不手软。 你是不是一边刷着新闻心跳加速，一边纠结囤金条还是蹲回调？殊不知真正的狠人，已经直接对金矿下 手了。说的就是最近在大A很火的洛阳钼业。当普通人还在为金价震荡心跳加速时 ...

美铜在前高位置震荡，市场进入指引真空期 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2026年1月26日沪铜主力合约收于101880元/吨；LME铜 价收于13128.5美元/吨。基差方面，SMM升水铜贴水从2026年1月23日 的-110元/吨加深至2026年1月26日的-135元/吨；LME(0-3)贴水从-82.84美 元/吨收窄至-66.06美元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：LME铜持仓在2026年1月23日增加9606手至325527手，持仓量 扩大；市场交投活跃度边际回暖，但现货成交受贴水压制维持清淡。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙皓 从业编号：F03118712 投资咨询：Z0019405 sunhao@thqh.com.cn 供给端 ：供给端压力增加，SHFE于2026年1月26日批准江铜国兴新增18万 吨冶炼产能注册，提升国内供应；BHP罢工事件导致道路封锁，但2026年1 月资讯显示暂未影响铜矿生产。LME、SHFE和COMEX库存均上升，反映供给 充 ...

紫金矿业（601899）（601899.SH）开年首单并购，选择了加拿大的金矿企业。 1月26日，紫金矿业公告，计划通过其控股子公司紫金黄金国际，以44加元/股的现金价格，收购联合黄 金全部已发行的普通股，收购对价共计约55亿加元（约合人民币280亿元）。 后者核心资产，为位于非洲马里、科特迪瓦与埃塞俄比亚的多个金矿，相关项目预计2025年产金 11.7~12.4吨，后续经过改扩建及新建产能释放，到2029年产金将提升至25吨。 紫金矿业2024年调整后的五年产量规划为，2028年矿产金目标为100-110吨，而在2025年公司矿产金已 经达到90吨。 后续，一旦对联合黄金的收购完成并实现并表，紫金矿业将提前两年达成百吨产金目标。 此外，近两年随着金、铜价格的上涨，该公司外部并购也呈现出了明显的"项目大型化"特点，新购金矿 项目预期产量普遍在5吨/年以上，并且百亿级收购案明显增加。 根据21世纪经济报道记者此前不完全统计，截至2025年12月下旬，包括紫金矿业、洛阳钼业 （603993）、江西铜业（600362）等在内的多家企业，全年海外金矿资产收购总额达到297亿元。 而紫金矿业上述单笔并购金额，便已经与去 ...

Group 1: Company Growth Plans - The company aims to increase customer penetration in the domestic market and develop new clients while enhancing import substitution [2] - Plans to leverage existing overseas clients' reputation and the benefits of being publicly listed to expand into international markets, including traditional markets in Europe and the US, as well as emerging markets in BRICS countries, Southeast Asia, and Africa [2] Group 2: Industry Demand Trends - The demand for all-steel giant tires is closely linked to the mining industry's growth, with tire consumption costs accounting for approximately 24% of operational expenses in large open-pit mines [3] - Global active large open-pit mines total 1,615, with around 63,900 giant mining trucks, indicating a robust market for all-steel giant tires [3] - By 2027, the global production of all-steel giant tires is expected to reach 358,000 units [3] Group 3: Product Pricing and Lifespan - Average prices for all-steel giant tires from January to June 2025 are: - 49-inch: CNY 51,300 per unit - 51-inch: CNY 87,000 per unit - 57-inch: CNY 182,800 per unit - 63-inch: CNY 347,000 per unit [6] - The lifespan of all-steel giant tires varies significantly based on factors such as mineral type, climate, road conditions, and load [5] Group 4: Industry Barriers - High technical barriers exist due to the demanding nature of all-steel giant tire production, requiring extensive practical feedback and long development cycles [7] - Market barriers arise from mining companies' focus on safety and efficiency, making it difficult for new entrants to gain acceptance [7] - The industry is capital-intensive, with high expectations for supplier reliability and production scale [7] Group 5: Future Outlook and Market Dynamics - The company is optimistic about maintaining a healthy gross margin despite increasing competition and market capacity, attributing this to high technical barriers and a focus on replacing international brands [9] - The replacement market for giant mining tires is significantly larger than the original equipment market, as tire selection is primarily based on mining conditions and owner preferences [10] - The company employs a direct sales model, engaging directly with clients, including well-known domestic and international mining companies [10]

长期黄金产量目标方面，该行预计巴西及厄瓜多尔项目在全面达产后，黄金产量每年将达20吨。在不考 虑进一步扩产或收购的情况下，估计黄金将占洛阳钼业2026年毛利的5%至6%，并于2030年提升至10% 以上。管理层初步目标到2030年将黄金产量翻倍，计划主要透过并购实现。该行现予洛阳钼业H股目标 价25.9港元、A股目标价26.7元，均予"买入"评级。 杰富瑞发表研报指，洛阳钼业去年12月宣布收购Equinox Gold公司在巴西的黄金资产组合，收购对价最 高约为10亿美元。相关交易已经完成。该行的资产净值分析显示，其隐含金价约为每盎司3320美元，对 比现货金价超过5000美元，而年初至今平均价高于4500美元。公司在去年中期业务更新时表示，黄金将 成为公司继铜以外的另一个业务支柱。管理层认为，以是次收购约10亿美元的成本计算，预期将获得合 理回报，并对黄金持建设性看法。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [6][6][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over the independence of U.S. Federal Reserve policies are expected to boost gold prices in the short term [6][6]. - The copper market is facing supply constraints due to incidents at major mines, which is likely to support copper prices despite high prices potentially suppressing actual consumption [36][36]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price support due to downstream inventory demand, while the lithium market is anticipated to maintain a strong price trend due to export tax incentives and tight supply expectations [6][6][6]. Summary by Sections Steel - The steel industry is expected to improve profitability as growth policies are implemented, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase [3][3]. - Current steel prices are showing seasonal trends, with expectations of price fluctuations following raw material prices [19][19]. - As of January 23, 2026, the total steel inventory has increased by 0.79% compared to the previous week, indicating a potential accumulation ahead of the Spring Festival [26][26]. Copper - The copper market is experiencing a tightening supply due to strikes affecting production at key mines, which may provide price support [36][36]. - The copper smelting processing fees remain negative, indicating pressure on the supply side, while demand is expected to rise in sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [36][36]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is characterized by stable supply and high operating rates at alumina plants, with expectations of price support from downstream inventory needs [46][46]. - As of January 23, 2026, the average price of alumina is reported at 2,657.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [50][50]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and economic data are influencing gold prices, with a notable increase in prices observed recently [54][54]. - As of January 23, 2026, gold prices have risen by 8.30% on COMEX and 8.07% on SHFE compared to the previous week [54][54]. Lithium and Cobalt - The lithium market is expected to maintain a strong price trend due to export tax incentives and tight supply conditions, with battery-grade lithium prices increasing by 12.46% recently [58][58]. - Cobalt supply is constrained due to limited export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand is driven by the electric vehicle and consumer electronics sectors [6][6].