2月24日，A股喜气洋洋，迎来马年的开门红，但拿着消费的，脸绿得发青，不说白酒高开低走，就是原来走得像模像样，俨然有老登带头大哥之势的中 免都封死跌停，以致公司都要出来回应。 自从23年春节来，消费已经连续四年春节没见过好脸色了，也连续四年没啥行情了。许多投资人觉得科技股已经涨很久了，对26年的消费是抱有期待的， 而现实又给了老登投资人一盆冷水。 当前是消费的至暗时刻，还是漫漫长夜继续？我们可以先来看一下消费的数据面。 史上最长的春节消费数据如何？ 春节是一个消费旺季，但落到我们投资上，其实主要是白酒和社服，后者包括免税、酒店、餐饮、出行等相关数据。 春节占白酒一年消费量的很大一部分，26年春节的白酒消费继续不给力，整体动销下滑了10-15%，不过临近春节前夕有所恢复。 茅台的批价持续往上走，站上了1700，除了茅台外，表现好的有五粮液，节前一周一些区域的动销恢复正增长，批价和春节成交价为780元+和800元+， 略超预期。但这个略超预期，终究是市场预期本来就低带来的，并不是白酒表现好了。分价格带看，中间的次高端是表现最差的一档，高不成低不就。 节前收盘后官方出了一个文件，三部门联合印发了《酿酒产业提质升级指 ...

2026 年春节社服行业数据点评 20260223 具体子行业在 2026 年春节期间有哪些亮点？ 在交通出行方面，与之密切相关的酒店业在 2025 年双位数下滑的低基数上实 现显著正增长。限时饮品方面，如茶百道和沪上阿姨分别实现双位数和高个位 数的单店或同店增长。此外，海南离岛免税销售额同比增长 19%，虽然较 1 月 日本通过短期直接刺激与中长期制度优化相结合的综合政策路径提升服 务消费发展，如 Go To Campaign 和完善休假制度，为中国当前服务 消费政策提供了参考借鉴意义。 餐饮行业重点推荐瑞幸、古茗、蜜雪和百胜。海底捞创始人回归，推动 红石榴计划。九毛九旗下太二餐厅调改效果逐渐显现。建议关注陕西旅 游，主要项目包括长恨歌演艺和华山索道。 份 40%的增速有所放缓，但仍表现良好。 你们对社服行业未来发展的总体观点是什么？ 摘要 春节期间社服行业复苏明显，交通出行提速，铁路增速达 10.7%，民航 增长 8%，酒店业在低基数上实现显著增长，海南离岛免税销售额同比 增长 19%，表明消费环境企稳，休闲需求强劲。 看好社服行业配置价值，政策刺激效果尚未完全显现，但需求已呈现企 稳回升迹象，政策支持服 ...

摘要 春节期间高端酒店和旅游需求超预期，出行相关消费显著受益，酒店 RevPAR 大幅提升，如华住、锦江、首旅等头部酒店集团均实现显著增 长，价格贡献是主要驱动力。 餐饮行业持续升温，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额同比增长 8.6%，火锅龙头企业翻台率和接待量均有所增加，预定量显著提升，表 明外出就餐比例增加带动餐饮业增长。 免税板块总体符合预期，但海南地区三亚增速优于海口，表明区域市场 存在差异。政府消费券有效拉动海南离岛免税增长，预计全年海南离岛 免税销售增速将维持在 20%左右。 珠宝零售市场分化，高端奢侈品珠宝消费较好，但金价高位对投资金需 求未直接拉动，首饰消费需求集中释放。部分品牌如潮宏基、周大福等 在高金价背景下表现强劲。 医美领域客流双位数增长，但单价有所下降。重组胶原蛋白类产品增速 亮眼，童颜水光类产品通过走量模式销售。预计 2026 年医美行业将比 2025 年更乐观，新技术与新成分加快获批。 春节消费观察总结 20260223 Q&A 今年春节期间消费市场的整体表现如何？有哪些主要趋势？ 今年春节期间，消费市场表现出三大主要趋势。首先，高端消费复苏明显，且 呈现 K 型分化。例如，大众 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating an expected return above 10% over the next 12 months [7]. Core Insights - The consumption data during the Spring Festival exceeded expectations, validating the effectiveness of recent policies aimed at stabilizing consumption and highlighting the recovery of service-oriented and experiential consumption compared to traditional retail [5]. - The report anticipates that the decision-makers will continue the positive momentum established during the Spring Festival, with further targeted and gradual easing measures expected around the "Two Sessions" to stabilize expectations and support demand [5]. - Leading restaurant operators with significant scale advantages and strong cost control capabilities, as well as core duty-free operators benefiting from long-term policy advantages, are expected to achieve relative gains as the consumption cycle normalizes [5]. Summary by Sections Spring Festival Consumption - The Spring Festival consumption was better than expected, with key retail and catering enterprises showing a year-on-year sales growth of 5.7%, significantly higher than the previous year's growth rates of 4.1% and 2.7% during the Mid-Autumn Festival [1]. - Over 20.5 billion yuan in consumption vouchers and subsidies were issued by local governments, effectively supporting demand [1]. Restaurant Sector - Increased dining demand was driven by higher travel frequency, milder weather, and longer holidays, with New Year's Eve dining reservations increasing over threefold year-on-year [2]. - Major dining brands and supermarkets launched diverse ready-to-eat and semi-finished meal boxes, catering to family gatherings and reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards convenience [2]. Tourism Sector - The extended holiday boosted tourism demand, with significant year-on-year increases in customer flow and orders for themed tourism such as ice and snow tours [3]. - Domestic travel orders reached new highs, with ticket bookings for scenic spots increasing by over 80% and hotel night stays rising by 75% [3]. Duty-Free Consumption - Duty-free sales in Hainan saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 30.8% to 2.72 billion yuan during the Spring Festival, driven by improved supply and operational efficiency following the implementation of new policies [4]. - The strong performance of duty-free consumption underscores the resilience and profitability potential of domestic duty-free channels [4].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In 2023, the market discussed a peak of 16 trillion yuan in "excess savings," with approximately 76-77 trillion yuan of residential time deposits maturing in 2026, indicating a historical peak[5] - The maturing deposits in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to reach 32-34 trillion yuan, highlighting a significant seasonal pattern[6] - The actual pressure from maturing deposits is limited, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate in 2025[6] Group 2: Interest Rate and Asset Allocation - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits are set to mature, with 32% of the total maturing deposits being two years or older, indicating a core pressure for renewal[6] - The renewal rate for deposits in 2025 remained close to 90%, suggesting that low interest rates do not automatically trigger a shift in risk appetite among residents[7] - The anticipated migration of deposits to other assets is expected to occur slowly and in a dispersed manner, with a potential 10% outflow rate from the 77 trillion yuan in time deposits being a marginal pricing variable for equity and bond markets[7] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - As of November 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached 9.8%, the highest since 1946, with China facing the highest actual tariff rate of 30.9%[9] - The actual tariff increases have significantly impacted trade dynamics, with China and India experiencing the largest increases in effective tariffs compared to 2024, at 20.2 and 17.3 percentage points respectively[10] - Despite tariff pressures, China's export position remains robust, maintaining the largest share of global exports, while the U.S. has shifted its import structure towards North America and Europe[11] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Behavior - The Chinese economy is shifting focus towards domestic demand as a long-term strategy, with consumer spending projected to account for 56.6% of GDP by 2024, still below developed economies[39] - Consumer confidence is stabilizing, with improvements in disposable income growth and a reduction in the crowding-out effect of precautionary savings on consumption[40] - The recovery in domestic demand is supported by a reasonable rise in prices, which is expected to stimulate consumption and improve corporate profitability[40]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 春节假期，旅游市场迎来"开门红" [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 河南发布数据显示，春节假期，河南省接待国内游客 6281 万 人次，旅游收入 376.3 亿元，按可比口径接待人次同比增长 9.1%，旅游收入同比增长 9.6%。 四川省文化和旅游厅数据显示，春节假期，全省共接待游客 5860.97 万人次、旅游总花费 445.74 亿元，同比分别增长 14.68%、13.35%。 海南省旅游和文化广电体育厅数据显示，春节假期，海南接 待游客 1232.05 万人次，实现游客总花费 183.66 亿元，同比 分别增长 28.9%、30.7%。 吉林发布数据显示，据银联商务公司大数据测算，春节假 期，全省接待国内游客量、国内游客出游总花费较 2025 年春 节假期分别增长 26.9%、24.9%，日均分别增长 11.1%、 10.9%。 [Table_Summary] ► 史上最长春节假期，多地旅游市场迎来"开门红" 北京市文化和旅游局数据显示，春节假期，北京累计接待游 客 1984 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xingrong (Shanghai) Information Technology Co., Ltd. has initiated the listing guidance process for an A-share IPO with the support of Guotai Junan Securities [1][2] - The company was established on June 9, 2010, and is a provider of AI infrastructure and management solutions in China [2] - The major shareholders include Shanghai Zhixing Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., which holds 52.49% of the shares [1] Group 2 - The company's projected revenues for 2023, 2024, and the first two months of 2025 are 157 million yuan, 288 million yuan, and 17.78 million yuan respectively [2] - The net profits for the same periods are 4.29 million yuan, 20.24 million yuan, and a loss of 930,100 yuan [2] - The gross profit margins are reported at 39.76%, 29.78%, and 46.52% for the respective years [2] Group 3 - Notable clients of the company include LVMH, Haidilao, Starbucks, Uniqlo, and China Telecom, indicating a strong market presence [2] - As of the date of the public transfer prospectus, Baidu holds a 3.85% stake, while Sichuan Haidilao holds 0.54% [3]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 春节假期，旅游市场迎来"开门红" [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 史上最长春节假期，多地旅游市场迎来"开门红" 北京市文化和旅游局数据显示，春节假期，北京累计接待游 客 1984.3 万人次，实现旅游总花费 331.4 亿元。 上海市文化旅游局数据显示，据上海旅游大数据监测，春节 假期，全市共接待游客 2167.21 万人次，同比增长 8.36%（按 可比口径，下同）；上海地区含吃、住、行、游、购、娱等全 要素旅游消费交易总金额为 256.14 亿元，同比增长 20.90%； 全市宾旅馆平均客房出租率为 50.60%，同比增长 3.10 个百分 点。 重庆市文化旅游委数据显示，春节假期，全市重点监测的 130 家 A 级景区累计接待游客 1260 万人次，同比增长 5.6%；重点 监测的 10 家旅游休闲街区累计接待游客 492.5 万人次，同比 增长 19.3%。 湖南省文旅厅数据显示，根据手机信令大数据建模统计，春 节假期全省累计接待游客 ...

| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-13 09:00——2026-02-24 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观专题：《有多少存款：可供"搬家"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观专题：《关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《春节期间：海外有何变化》2026-02-22 4 | | |  | 宏观周报：《新春经济温和修复》2026-02-22 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《特朗普关税被否：后续如何演绎》2026-02-21 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《"K 型分化"的边际收敛》2026-02-21 6 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《超级核心通胀压力仍存》2026-02-14 7 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《M2 增速：创新高的背后》2026-02-14 8 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《中国股市上升的关键动力三：中国内需提振的"有力转折"》2 ...

海底捞春节9天 接待顾客超1400 万人次_南方+_ 南方plus 2026年春节，年 轻人成为"春节 主理人"，给传 统的团圆佳节带 来新场景和新内 涵，也带动了春 节聚餐方式的变 域年味产品 海底捞用"过年 感"承接团聚场 景 春节期间，海底 捞围绕家庭团 聚、朋友聚会等 场景，在门店布 置、互动活动和 节庆新品等方面 打造新春氛围。 比如，海底捞上 线"小马宝莉"马 年新年系列活 化。海底捞作为 不少年轻人日常 聚餐的熟悉场 景，在2026年的 春节聚餐中出现 得格外频繁。海 底捞后台数据显 示，2月15日至 23日的9天假期 中，海底捞全国 门店共计接待顾 客超1400万人 次。 从新春联名到地 动，通过联名甜 品、主题儿童餐 及互动玩法，丰 富春节期间的到 店聚餐体验。 分时段出现等位 数百桌的情况。 一些城市的海底 捞还推出了差异 化的春节产品： 杭州部分门店以 紫色食材和"紫 气东来、讨个好 彩头"的春节寓 意为灵感，推 出"紫定发财紫 白菜""紫气盈萝 好运连连""财运 亨通七彩土 豆"三款"紫色发 财菜"；南京部 分门店推出锦鲤 造型花饽饽，让 顾客在聚餐时更 直观地感受到春 节氛围。 除了 ...