数说新能源 欢迎订购数说新能源2026年月度电池装机数据库和中国汽车上险数据库 联系方式：13220160736（同微信） 一、 1月份行业总体数据与特点 二、 主要主机厂2026年1月销量及动态分析 1、总量下滑，结构分化严重： 全行业：预计1月销量同比有明显下滑，幅度在两位数左右。 内销：显著下滑，是拖累全行业下行的主因。 出口：延续高增长，增速预计在30%-50%，表现强劲。 总结为"三好一差"：出口好、燃油车好、新车型多的企业好；新能源车内销差。 2、内销下滑原因分析： 核心原因：补贴退坡。1月起，新能源汽车和燃油车的"以旧换新"补贴均下降，其中新能源汽车退坡更多，因此 内销下滑主要由新能源汽车引起。 成本压力：原材料（铜、铝、碳酸锂、存储芯片）成本显著上涨，对智能化程度较高的新能源汽车成本冲击尤其 大。 主流车企主动策略：在成本上涨背景下，行业并未大规模打"价格战"，而是选择"保价保利润"，这对行业是相对 利好的。 3、出口高增长原因分析： 延续了2024年下半年的高增长趋势（去年11、12月增速40-50%）。 背后核心原因是中国车企在海外市场和渠道的全面扩张。 4、其他结构性亮点： 燃油车表现较 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 批发销量节奏调整，静待后续产品周期 目标价：113.8 元、116.3 港元 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 777,102 | 805,565 | 943,584 | 1,070,539 | | 同比增速(%) | 29.0% | 3.7% | 17.1% | 13.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 40,254 | 35,214 | 47,042 | 59,979 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.0% | -12.5% | 33.6% | 27.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.42 | 3.86 | 5.16 | 6.58 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 23 | 17 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 3 日收盘价 公司研究 乘用车Ⅲ 2026 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The company discussed is **HCDX Mengguli**, which is involved in the supply of materials for special power sources in deep-sea and space applications. - The industry focus includes **specialized power sources** for deep-sea, space, and photovoltaic applications, primarily under the umbrella of **China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC)** through its subsidiary **Dian Ke Lantian**. Core Points and Arguments - **Supply Chain Integration**: HCDX Mengguli has successfully integrated into the supply chain of Dian Ke Lantian by supplying **6-series ternary materials** for special power sources used in deep-sea applications [1] - **Projected Supply and Revenue**: In 2025, Dian Ke Lantian is expected to supply approximately **300-400 tons** of materials, translating to an energy output of about **0.1 GWh** and generating a revenue of **50-60 million yuan** [2][3] - **Profitability Turnaround**: HCDX Mengguli anticipates achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of **18-23 million yuan** in 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses. This shift is attributed to a transition from low-margin traditional power batteries to higher-margin small power applications and high-end consumer electronics [3] - **Sales Volume and Profit Margins**: The company expects to ship **18,000 tons** in total for the year, with a profit of approximately **1,000 yuan per ton**. In Q4 alone, shipments are projected to be **4,000 tons** with a net profit of **2,500 yuan per ton** [3] - **Lithium Cobalt Supply**: In 2025, the company plans to supply **7,000 tons** of lithium cobalt oxide, benefiting from rising cobalt prices and increased processing fees, achieving a gross margin of **13-15%** [3] - **High Voltage Lithium Cobalt Supply**: In 2026, HCDX Mengguli is set to supply **4.5V and 4.53V high voltage lithium cobalt oxide** to major clients like BYD and Zhuhai Guanyu, which is expected to further enhance profit margins [3] - **NCA Business Growth**: The NCA (Nickel Cobalt Aluminum) segment is projected to grow significantly, with shipments expected to reach nearly **3,000 tons** in 2025, a substantial increase from **300-400 tons** in 2024. This growth is primarily driven by orders from **Weilan Lithium Core** and a **500-ton order** from Taiwan's Molicel, with a gross profit of over **20,000 yuan per ton** [3] Other Important Insights - **Market Positioning**: The company is shifting its focus from large power applications to small power applications, targeting sectors such as **electric tools, high-end home appliances, and humanoid robots**, indicating a strategic pivot towards higher value-added markets [3] - **Technological and Customer Endorsements**: The company has established a strong technical foundation and customer endorsements in specialized applications, which may facilitate the extension of its ternary technology into higher-value areas such as space power sources [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a weak performance, with key indices collectively adjusting, particularly in the technology, consumer, and healthcare sectors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 4, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 1.5%, with the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) dropping nearly 2% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index reached a peak of 6715 in October 2025 but has since declined nearly 20% due to tightening overseas liquidity and regional geopolitical disturbances [1] - The current valuation level of the Hang Seng Technology Index is at a near five-year low [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) is the largest ETF tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index, focusing on core Chinese AI assets and combining both software and hardware technology [1] - The ETF holds leading technology companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, SMIC, and BYD [1] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account can access Chinese AI core assets through the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) [1]

本报讯(记者袁传玺)近日，蘑菇车联(MOGOX)与LG电子达成战略合作，双方将围绕自动驾驶车辆部署 与运营、数字道路基础设施建设及城市智能治理等领域加强业务协同与合作，联合拓展中韩及全球自动 驾驶市场。 这是继蘑菇车联与比亚迪（002594）和MKX Technologies、autonoma组成的联合体独家中标新加坡官方 首个L4级自动驾驶巴士项目后，蘑菇车联在海外市场的又一次重要突破，标志着中国自动驾驶技术在 全球高密度城市的落地版图持续扩容。 此次合作，蘑菇车联将延续在海外公共交通领域的先发优势，进一步强化在前装量产自动驾驶巴士、视 觉与固态激光雷达融合方案、端到端自动驾驶系统等方面的技术和产品能力，借助海外多元交通场景完 成技术与商业的闭环验证。 作为全球领先的自动驾驶全栈技术与运营服务提供商，蘑菇车联通过"前装量产+视觉与固态激光雷达 融合"技术路线，显著提升了系统的一致性与可靠性，使目标感知距离提升超50%，漏检率/误检率下降 70%，接管率降低两个数量级，且大幅降低了研发与硬件成本，为自动驾驶巴士规模化落地奠定坚实基 础。其自研的新一代端到端自动驾驶系统MOGO AutoPilot，融合Mogo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" investment rating for the China Autos & Shared Mobility industry [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a "wait and see" strategy among automakers as they navigate a challenging market environment, with many companies preparing for significant product launches post-Chinese New Year (CNY) while monitoring demand trends closely [54]. - Weekly order trends from January 26 to February 1 show a decline in demand for major electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, with notable decreases in order volumes compared to previous weeks [2][3]. - The anticipated pre-CNY buying rush is expected to be less impactful this year, as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) adopt a cautious approach until demand shows signs of recovery [54]. - Approximately 25 localities began accepting applications for trade-in subsidies in January, but the effectiveness of these subsidies is expected to be clearer only after the CNY break [54]. Summary by Relevant Sections Order Trends - BYD: 41-42k orders (down 8% week-over-week, down 41% month-over-month) [2] - NIO: 3.9-4.1k orders (down 5% week-over-week, down 49% month-over-month) [2] - XPeng: 7.5-7.7k orders (down 9% week-over-week, down 15% month-over-month) [2] - Tesla China: 9.5-9.7k orders (down 3% week-over-week, down 4% month-over-month) [2] - Aito: 5.2-5.4k orders (down 7% week-over-week, down 32% month-over-month) [3] - Geely Galaxy: 15-15.2k orders (down 6% week-over-week, down 32% month-over-month) [3] Market Environment - The report highlights that despite some seasonal promotions, the overall market remains tough, leading to a cautious outlook from manufacturers [54]. - The report suggests that the industry is in a transitional phase, with companies waiting for clearer signals of demand recovery before making significant moves [54].

Core Insights - In 2025, BYD achieved a historic milestone by surpassing Tesla with annual sales of 2.257 million pure electric vehicles, becoming the global leader in the electric vehicle market [1][4] - This achievement is attributed to BYD's systematic innovation and strategic globalization, positioning Chinese automotive brands at the forefront of the global automotive industry [1][4] Group 1: Technological Advancements - BYD's success is built on a robust technological moat established over the years, featuring innovations like the "Heavenly Eye" driver assistance system and the "Super e-platform" for rapid charging [1][4] - The company's vertically integrated supply chain model ensures rapid iteration of technology and products, creating a competitive edge that is difficult to replicate [1][4] Group 2: Market Performance - In Europe, BYD transitioned from a single product focus to a comprehensive breakthrough, with sales in the UK exceeding 50,000 units, a staggering increase of 485% year-on-year [2][5] - In traditional automotive markets like Germany, Spain, and Italy, annual sales surpassed 20,000 units, reflecting the recognition of product quality and the effectiveness of localized sales and service networks [2][5] - In the Asia-Pacific region, BYD's dominance is evident, with annual sales reaching 45,000 units in Turkey and 41,000 units in Thailand, bolstered by the establishment of local manufacturing facilities [2][5] Group 3: Global Expansion Strategy - BYD's dual strategy of "going global" and "localization" has been pivotal, with its electric vehicles now present in 119 countries and regions, achieving overseas sales exceeding one million units in 2025 [3][6] - The company is expanding its production footprint internationally, with factories in Thailand, Brazil, and Uzbekistan already operational, and a facility in Hungary set to commence operations soon [3][6] - This localization strategy not only addresses complex external environments but also shortens delivery times and aligns with market demands, marking a significant shift from "product trade" to "industry rootedness" [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the Zhuhai-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index and its related ETF indicates a strong upward trend, reflecting positive market sentiment towards companies benefiting from the Greater Bay Area development [2][3]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of February 3, 2026, the Zhuhai-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index (931000) increased by 1.50%, with notable gains from component stocks such as XW Communication (up 13.12%) and Mingyang Smart Energy (up 7.63%) [2]. - The Greater Bay Area ETF (512970) rose by 1.83%, with a latest price of 1.5 yuan, and has accumulated a 16.77% increase over the past six months [2]. - The ETF's trading volume showed a turnover rate of 1.59% with a transaction value of 1.3822 million yuan, and an average daily transaction of 1.0538 million yuan over the past week [2]. Group 2: Risk and Return Metrics - The Greater Bay Area ETF recorded a Sharpe ratio of 1.51 over the past year as of January 30, 2026, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [2]. - The maximum drawdown for the ETF this year was 5.52%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.02% [2]. - The management fee for the ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [2]. Group 3: Index Composition - The index closely tracks companies that benefit from the Greater Bay Area development, including a selection of up to 50 Hong Kong market securities, 300 companies from the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen markets, and 100 mainland market securities [3]. - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 44.55% of the total, with major companies including Ping An Insurance, Luxshare Precision, and BYD [3][4].

Group 1: Micro Fund Development - The return logic of micro funds is primarily based on the valuation repair of low-attention assets and capital games, with a systematic selection of underpriced micro stocks to capture valuation recovery as attention increases [10][10][10] - Micro funds can be categorized into three types based on strategy implementation: active gaming type, flexible allocation type, and stable participation type, each differing in exposure, return elasticity, and drawdown characteristics [10][10][10] - The micro fund style is expected to have a phase of recovery and structural allocation value, benefiting from a friendly policy and liquidity environment under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [10][10][10] Group 2: Fixed Income Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on bond issuers within key supported industries under the "14th Five-Year Plan," using a qualitative and quantitative assessment method to identify the top 25% of issuers based on bond performance and fundamentals [3][3][3] - The analysis highlights that the majority of recommended issuers have bond balances of 2 billion yuan or more, with ratings predominantly at AAA and AA+ levels, indicating strong credit quality [3][3][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions and industry policies, as well as the potential tightening of credit environments [3][3][3] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Jingdong Group's revenue is projected to reach 350.8 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase, while the retail business is expected to face pressure due to reduced government subsidies [20][20][20] - The company "Mingming Hen Mang" is positioned as a leading player in the snack retail sector, with projected revenues of 645 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [19][19][19] - The report anticipates that the company "Jiyuan Group" will maintain a strong market position in the health supplement industry, with a projected revenue of 10 billion yuan in 2024, driven by its innovative product offerings [17][17][17]

Group 1: Public Fund Industry - In 2026, public fund companies showed strong enthusiasm for self-purchase, with 24 companies implementing self-purchases totaling 406 million yuan, over 80% of which was directed towards equity funds [1] - Among the self-purchases, stock funds received 100 million yuan and mixed funds received 248 million yuan, while bond funds received 30 million yuan [1] - Ruifeng Fund led the self-purchase with 100 million yuan, while several other companies, including GF Fund and China Merchants Fund, each self-purchased 20 million yuan [1] Group 2: Payment Industry - The number of third-party payment licenses is continuously decreasing, with the first company, Henan Jubao Payment, exiting the market in 2026 [2] - The decline in payment institutions is attributed to structural reshuffling and regulatory upgrades within the industry [2] - Traditional payment businesses are under pressure, with many companies reporting declines in net profit after excluding non-recurring gains, prompting a need for transformation towards cross-border payments and AI integration [2] Group 3: Refrigerant Industry - The refrigerant market remains strong despite being in the traditional off-season, with prices for R32 and R134a increasing by approximately 45% and 32% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The industry is expected to see long-term price increases due to strict global supply constraints and growing downstream demand [2] - Major companies are primarily executing long-term contracts, but market prices are expected to exceed contract prices, indicating a robust pricing environment [2] Group 4: Smartphone Market in India - The Indian smartphone market saw a 1% year-on-year increase in shipments in 2025, with sales revenue growing by 8% due to a shift towards high-end devices [3] - However, a single-digit decline in shipments is anticipated for 2026, particularly in the segment priced below 15,000 Indian Rupees, due to rising costs of components [3] - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to increase by 5%-7% as major OEMs focus on high-end strategies [3] Group 5: Nanobody Research - Research indicates that nanobodies extracted from llamas show potential in treating various diseases, including depression, prompting significant investment from pharmaceutical companies [4] - The development of next-generation nanobody drugs is seen as a breakthrough in precision medicine [4] Group 6: Cancer Burden Quantification - The IARC and WHO quantified the global burden of preventable cancers, revealing that nearly 40% of new cancer cases in 2022 were linked to modifiable risk factors [4] - The findings emphasize the importance of reducing smoking, infections, and alcohol consumption in cancer prevention efforts [4] Group 7: PayPal's Financial Performance - PayPal's fourth-quarter earnings and revenue fell short of expectations, leading to a significant drop in stock price and a change in CEO [5] - The company reported earnings of $1.23 per share and total revenue of $8.68 billion, both below analyst forecasts [5] Group 8: Tianqi Lithium Industry - Tianqi Lithium suspended trading in Hong Kong as it plans to dispose of part of its stake in SQM, with a maximum of 3.566 million A shares to be sold [6] - The company has already disposed of 748,500 B shares, and as of the announcement date, it holds 62.556 million A shares, representing 21.90% of SQM's total shares [6] Group 9: Corporate Governance Issues - Gaoxin Retail announced difficulties in contacting its CEO, but the board believes this will not significantly impact operations [7] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a regulatory warning to Pengxin Resources for failing to appoint a board secretary, which has been vacant since January 2022 [8]