（作者｜周琦 编辑｜张广凯） 2月中旬，全球啤酒龙头百威英博发布了2025年业绩。 值得注意的是，这份财报呈现出一种"分裂感"。 从全球看，这是一份相当漂亮的成绩单。尽管其总营收593.20亿美元（约合4237亿元人民币）因汇率波 动同比微降0.8%，但归母净利润却逆势大增16.8%，达到68.37亿美元（约合488亿元人民币）。 在啤酒消费整体疲软、全球销量下滑2.3%的年份，百威通过"高端化+数字化"的组合拳，EBITDA利润 率同比提升101个基点至35.8%。 然而，将镜头拉近到亚太，尤其是中国市场，画面却瞬间切换。 同日发布的百威亚太年报显示，公司2025年收入57.64亿美元，同比减少6.1%；股权持有人应占溢利 4.89亿美元，同比骤降32.6%。 作为核心引擎的中国市场，全年收入大跌11.3%，销量下滑8.6%，每百升收入也减少3.0%。 更聪明地卖酒 2025年，百威英博的全球总销量实际上同比下降了2.3%，但就是在少卖酒的情况下，净利润却增长了 近17%。 钱从哪里来？ 这已是百威亚太连续第四年净利润下滑，且中国市场已是连续第二年双位数下滑。 曾经在中国高端啤酒市场呼风唤雨、毛利率一度稳压 ...

港股三大指数今日反弹，恒指及恒科指数均一度涨超1%。截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.95%或249.52点，报 26630.54点，全日成交额2884.2亿港元；恒生国企指数涨0.51%，报8859.49点；恒生科技指数涨0.56%， 报5137.84点。全月来看，恒指累跌2.76%，国指累跌4.91%，恒科指数累跌10.15%。 摩根士丹利报告指出，A股投资情绪指标在农历新年后随成交量回升及对两会预期升温而有所改善。但 受人工智能颠覆影响的担忧及竞争压力，离岸中资股仍面临挑战。大型平台公司的AI能力提升、盈利 改善及外部市场的稳定将是未来的观察关键。 蓝筹股表现 新鸿基地产(00016)创新高。截至收盘，涨7.12%，报146港元，成交额22.96亿港元，贡献恒指22.72点。 摩根大通研报指出，新鸿基地产2026上半财年盈利按年增长17%，远高于该行预期的4%增幅，主要受 惠于中国内地发展物业利润远超预期。这是三年来新地首次提高中期股息3%，此举显示管理层的信 心。 其他蓝筹股方面，药明生物(02269)涨5.07%，报40.22港元，贡献恒指11.5点；中国神华（601088） (01088)涨4.03%，报4 ...

研究报告 Research Report 27 Feb 2026 中国必需消费 China (Overseas) Staples 中国必选消费品 2 月成本报告：环比平稳，同比仍处低位 February CGCI: Month-on-month flat, year-on-year still low [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 百威亚太 | Neutral 7.90 | 27 | 24 | | 海底捞 | Outperform 18.22 | 18 | 17 | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform 36.00 | n.a. | n.a. | | 康师傅 | Outperform 17.74 | 18 | 16 | | 中国飞鹤 | Outperform 7.00 | 8 | 7 | | 优然牧业 | Outperform 5.50 | n. ...

当前，企业发展的外部形势具备"强"的支撑：宏观调控加力提效，企业发展信心更强；产业政策精准赋能，酒业发展支撑更足；产业布局持续调整，非酒 发展方向更明。要全力抢抓企业发展"新机遇"，坚定信心，用好用足政策红利，努力把各方面的优势因素转化为企业稳健发展的实际成效。 ——曾从钦 五粮液集团（股份）公司党委书记、董事长 2月24日，五粮液集团（股份）公司召开2026年春节节后收心会。曾从钦表示，2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，是五粮液推动高质量发展的关键一 年，更是抢抓机遇、攻坚克难、实现突破的攻坚之年。当前，企业发展的外部形势具备"强"的支撑：宏观调控加力提效，企业发展信心更强；产业政策精 准赋能，酒业发展支撑更足；产业布局持续调整，非酒发展方向更明。要全力抢抓企业发展"新机遇"，坚定信心，用好用足政策红利，努力把各方面的优 势因素转化为企业稳健发展的实际成效。 美团闪购：2026春节酒桌代际分化 近日，美团闪购发布《2026即时零售春节消费观察》，数据显示，春节期间酒类消费在不同代际间呈现出明显偏好： 80后：更偏爱酱香型白酒，销量同比增长144%；同时，保健酒增长87%，体现出对品质与健康的兼顾。 90 ...

通过将产品进行高端化升级，珠江啤酒（002461）(002461.SZ)在销量微增之时，利润大幅增长。 2月25日晚间，珠江啤酒发布业绩快报。公司2025年营业收入达58.78亿元，同比增长2.56%；归母净利润9.03亿 元，同比增长11.42%；扣非净利润8.32亿元，同比增长9.25%，均创下历史新高。 珠江啤酒表示，2025年，公司产品结构优化升级，市场开拓稳中有进，渠道建设创新发力，品牌声量持续放大， 管理效能不断提升，持续推动企业高质量发展走深走实。 公告中，珠江啤酒还介绍，2025年，公司实现啤酒销量146.24万吨，同比增长1.58%。 一位啤酒行业业内人士向长江商报记者表示，我国高端啤酒市场占比已突破40%，成为行业利润的主要来源。 产品结构优化升级 中国啤酒行业已进入平稳发展阶段，啤酒行业竞争激烈，但啤酒消费结构性升级存在发展空间。当前，珠江啤酒 正顺应高端啤酒发展趋势，促进公司产品高端化升级。 数据显示，2025年1月至12月，中国规模以上企业啤酒产量3536万千升，同比下降1.1%。 在此行业背景下，珠江啤酒业绩逆势上扬。 2026年2月25日晚间，珠江啤酒发布业绩快报，公司2025年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that Zhujiang Beer achieved a total operating revenue of 5.878 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 903 million yuan, up 11.42% year-on-year [6] - Budweiser APAC reported an operating revenue of 5.764 billion USD for the fiscal year 2025, with an organic year-on-year decline of 6.1% and a normalized EBITDA of 1.588 billion USD, down 9.8% year-on-year [6] - The report emphasizes the ongoing structural upgrades in the beer industry, with Zhujiang Beer focusing on high-end products and innovative marketing strategies to enhance market share [6] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - The industry has shown relative returns of 2.49% over the past month, but a decline of 8.51% over the past three months and 22.95% over the past year [3] Company Performance - Zhujiang Beer has optimized its product structure, with high-end beer sales increasing by 14.16% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [6] - Budweiser APAC's sales in China experienced an organic year-on-year decline of 3.9% in Q4 2025, with overall performance in China falling short of industry averages [6] Market Trends - Several beer companies are launching special edition products for the Year of the Horse, with Budweiser introducing limited edition cans symbolizing various New Year blessings [6] - The report suggests that the focus on new year-themed products and youthful packaging is becoming standard practice among leading beer companies [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends paying attention to A-share listed companies such as Qingdao Beer, Chongqing Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer, as well as Hong Kong-listed companies like China Resources Beer and Budweiser APAC [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the consumer staples sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Moutai, Wuliangye, and others [1]. Core Insights - Premium baijiu wholesale prices have rebounded month-on-month, while discounts on liquid milk and condiments have narrowed [1][11]. - The report highlights the resilience of consumer stocks amidst a volatile market, emphasizing their value [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1700 and 1650 yuan respectively, with month-on-month increases of +100 and +70 yuan. Year-to-date changes are +100 and +60 yuan, but year-on-year changes are -530 and -560 yuan [10][40]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price remains stable at 830 yuan, with a year-to-date increase of +10 yuan and a year-on-year decrease of -105 yuan [4][40]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price is 870 yuan, up by +20 yuan month-on-month and +20 yuan year-to-date, with a year-on-year increase of +10 yuan [4][40]. - Other notable prices include Shanxi Fenjiu and various products from Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu, showing mixed trends in pricing [10][40]. Discounts on Consumer Products - Discounts on liquid milk products have decreased from an average of 62.8% to 61.4% and from 63.4% to 61.7% for median values [19][37]. - Discounts on condiments have also narrowed from 87.1% to 85.0% (average) and from 88.2% to 84.9% (median) [19][37]. - Conversely, discounts on convenience foods have slightly increased, with average discounts moving from 94.8% to 94.6% [20][37]. - Beer, soft drinks, and infant formula discounts have remained stable, with slight variations in average and median rates [21][38].

陈文博 中金公司食品饮料分析师: 位投资人，大家上午好。那也祝大家新年好，以及开工大吉。那今天上午，是中金组织的 大众食品的春节的情况跟踪电话会。我是中金的食品饮料组陈文博。那今天上午，我们请 到了两位综合的食品的专家与大家分享春节的情况。那第一位专家，主要负责华东、华中 以及华西地区的包括饮料，还有零食等大大的一些品类的运营。专家您好，能听到我说话 吗？ 华东华中华西食品综合专家: 你好，可以，没问题。 陈文博 中金公司食品饮料分析师: 对，那我们就开始。那第一个，首先我想问问，就是您代理的这个品类也比较多，那想问 一下春节期间，比如说这个几个大的品类，像乳制品、饮料、零食、速冻。包括调味品， 这几个品类分别的增速情况，和景气度。然后就综合来看的话，有没有什么地方比咱们之 前预期的要好，或者是要差的？ 华东华中华西食品综合专家: 我们先按照您刚才说的那个品类来说，我们今年的这个总体的品类分成像修石，修石我们 今年的整体性，春节的一二月份，这二月份我们是截止到 2 月 10 号左右。节前的这个数 据，那我们整体的出货比去年同期我们是增长了 10%左右，这所有的修饰，这里面主要是 以礼盒为主，这个品相。那从整个 ...

近日，百威亚太披露2025年业绩，公告显示，公司2025年营收、利润、销量全线下滑，中国市场也继续 承压。 运营商财经网 周颖/文 具体来看，百威亚太2025年收入为57.64亿美元，约为人民币397.78亿元，同比减少6.1%，公司股权持 有人应占溢利由2024年的7.26亿美元下降至2025年的4.89亿美元，约合109.59亿元人民币，同比大幅下 降32.6%，创百威亚太上市以来的历史新低，总销量也同比减少了6.0%至796.58万千升。 运营商财经（官方微信公众号yyscjrd）—— 主流财经网站，一家全面覆盖科技、金融、证券、汽车、 房产、食品、医药、日化、酒业及其他各种消费品网站。 此外百威亚太还提到，其2026年在中国的首要任务是"重燃增长趋势，并重建市场份额的增长动能"，看 来百威在中国市场的情况不容乐观。 而在2025年上半年，百威亚太营业收入同比下降7.74%至224.5亿元，就被华润啤酒以0.83%的增速和 239.4亿元的营收规模超越，失去了行业第一的宝座。截至目前，华润啤酒还未公布2025年全年业绩相 关情况，不知今年这行业第一的位置究竟花落谁家。 此外值得一提的是，在公布业绩的同时 ...

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC (01876) is undergoing a deep adjustment period in the Chinese market, facing short-term performance pressure due to reform pains and external shocks, but positive signals are emerging from channel transformation, with preliminary improvements in market share observed in Q4 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year 2025, the company's revenue and EBITDA were $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8%; Q4 revenue and EBITDA were $1.07 billion and $170 million, down 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year [2] - The Chinese market significantly dragged down performance, with Q4 revenue and EBITDA declining by 11.4% and 42.3% year-on-year, and full-year revenue and EBITDA down 11.3% and 15.7% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the full year was $489 million, a decrease of 32.1% year-on-year, while cash flow remained robust with a dividend payout ratio increased to 153% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategy - The industry in China is experiencing stable volume but declining prices, with Budweiser APAC actively transforming its channels; the decline in sales volume in Q4 narrowed from 11% in Q3 to 3.9% [3] - The company is focusing on high-end product positioning and expanding into new channels like instant retail and O2O, with expectations for ASP improvement in 2026 supported by various factors including policy changes and increased consumer confidence [3] - Management's outlook for 2026 includes organic growth, inorganic expansion, and shareholder returns, with a focus on high-end channels in China and maintaining a strong position in the Korean market [3] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - The estimated EPS for the company for 2026-2028 is projected at $0.04, $0.05, and $0.05, respectively, with the valuation multiple for 2026 adjusted from 20x PE to 25x PE, maintaining a target price of HKD 7.9 [1][2]