1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish on glass (FG) and soda ash (SA) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, the demand for glass and soda ash was weak, and the supply was high, leading to a continuous decline in prices and a compression of industrial profits. In 2026, the weak demand will continue to suppress the upward drive of prices, but the supply elasticity will increase significantly under the influence of profit compression and policies. The fundamentals of glass and soda ash will remain loose, and prices may be more affected by supply changes [3][85][86] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Glass - In 2025, glass prices were under pressure and continued to decline. The annual average price of 5mm glass in the Shahe area was about 1,100 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4%. The price fluctuations were mainly divided into three stages: continuous decline from the beginning of the year to the end of June, a rise and then a fall in the third quarter, and a continued decline under pressure in the fourth quarter. The futures price showed a contango structure, and the basis and inter - month spreads had obvious characteristics. The glass factory's profit was under pressure and fluctuated at a low level [4][7][14] 3.1.2 Soda Ash - In 2025, the supply of soda ash was strong and the demand was weak, and the price center of gravity continued to move down. The annual average price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area was about 1,286 yuan, a decrease of 32.2% compared with 2024. The price fluctuations mainly went through four stages: a slight rise before and after the Spring Festival, a sharp decline in the second quarter, a rise and then a fall in the third quarter, and a continued decline and a new low in the fourth quarter. The basis and spreads fluctuated slightly, and the annual structure was in backwardation. The alkali factory's profit was under pressure and decreased [24][28][32] 3.2 Glass Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Analysis - In 2025, the glass supply was mainly stable, with a slight increase followed by a decline. The production profit was under pressure, and the industry clearing was slow. In 2026, the glass factory's production profit will continue to be under pressure, and the industry may accelerate the clearing. The daily melting volume and start - up rate are expected to decline, but the reduction may still be insufficient [42][43] 3.2.2 Demand Analysis - In 2025, the glass demand was weak, with a slight improvement in stages. Real estate demand continued to decline, while manufacturing demand was resilient. In 2026, the overall demand will remain weakly stable, with real estate demand still under pressure and manufacturing demand maintaining a certain degree of support. The inventory is expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate [53][54][62] 3.3 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Analysis - In 2025, the soda ash supply was at a high level, and the new production capacity was put into operation. In 2026, the production capacity expansion will slow down, and the production capacity will start to clear in the medium and long term. The supply elasticity of alkali factories is relatively strong, and the price will continue to fluctuate greatly due to supply disturbances [64] 3.3.2 Demand Analysis - In 2025, the demand for soda ash was weakly stable, with a downward trend. The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak, while the demand for light soda ash was relatively good. In 2026, the demand for soda ash will still be an important driving factor. The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass is expected to weaken, but the overall demand still has strong resilience [74][75][84] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the downstream demand for glass and soda ash was weak, and the supply was high, resulting in an imbalance in fundamentals and a continuous decline in prices. In 2026, the weak demand will continue to suppress the upward space of glass and soda ash prices, and the industrial profits will continue to be under pressure. The prices may be more affected by supply changes, and the overall fluctuation range is limited [85][86]

今日午后，玻璃和纯碱期价快速上行。截至下午收盘，玻璃期货主力2601合约报1237元/吨，涨幅4.74%；纯碱期货主力2601合约报1307元/吨， 涨幅2.27%。期货日报记者在采访中了解到，今日玻璃和纯碱期价上涨，既源于传统旺季需求的支撑，也受供应端消息的影响。 图为玻璃期货主力2601合约走势 "玻璃期货今日的大涨是意料之外的，也是情理之中的。"河北望美实业期货部负责人霍东凯表示，玻璃生产企业自年初起便持续处于亏损状 态，行业"内卷"严重，市场普遍期待行业在"反内卷"号召下实现重塑。 记者了解到，当前，各玻璃厂家正通过主动提价维护市场信心，部分激进厂家甚至单次上调现货价格100元/吨。受访人士普遍认为，这种提价 行为短期内产生了明显的传导效应，未涨价区域的下游企业为应对节前备货需求，补库情绪被拉动，进而带动全国范围内的现货涨价氛围。 不过，霍东凯也表示，玻璃现货基本面依旧偏弱，趋势性反转时机尚未成熟。在他看来，后期走势的核心影响因素有三点：产能能否加速退 出、四季度需求能否改善、市场信心能否有效恢复。若四季度产能收缩、赶工需求如期而至且市场信心回升，玻璃价格有望迎来良性修复。 图为纯碱期货主力2601合 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the basic chemical sector has shown a decline of 1.33% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points [6][19] - Key companies to focus on include Wanhua Chemical, Yangnong Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, with a specific interest in agricultural chemicals and technology sectors such as liquid cooling and PCB supply chains [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the basic chemical sector is at 4048.88, with a weekly high of 4123.45 and a low of 2721.92 [2] Price Movements - Major price increases were observed in products such as liquid chlorine (up 22.93%), dichloromethane (up 19.44%), and bismuth ingots (up 12.39%) [9][25] - Conversely, prices for vitamin E decreased by 10.00%, and other products like β-methyl naphthalene and trichloro-sucrose also saw significant declines [10][27] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included significant gains for companies like Kaimete Gas (up 28.62%) and Guangdong Hongda (up 22.93%), while companies like Runyang Technology and Wankai New Materials experienced declines of 11.48% and 10.42%, respectively [7][22] Key Company Ratings - Wanhua Chemical is rated "Buy" with a closing price of 65.3 and a market cap of 204.45 billion [12] - Yangnong Chemical is also rated "Buy" with a closing price of 71.2 and a market cap of 28.86 billion [12] - Other companies such as Meihua Biological and Bailong Chuangyuan remain unrated [12]

全市场规模最大的化工ETF（(159870)）紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，截至2025年7月21日 14:12，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)强势上涨2.39%，成分股博源化工(000683)上涨10.06%，易 普力(002096)上涨9.98%，金发科技(600143)上涨9.98%，鲁西化工(000830)，华峰化学(002064)等个股跟 涨。化工ETF(159870)上涨2.53%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报0.61元。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)前十大权重股分别为万华化学 (600309)、盐湖股份(000792)、巨化股份(600160)、宝丰能源(600989)、藏格矿业(000408)、华鲁恒升 (600426)、恒力石化(600346)、卫星化学(002648)、云天化(600096)、龙佰集团(002601)，前十大权重股 合计占比43.37%。 化工ETF(159870)，场外联接A：014942；联接C：014943；联接I：022792。 截至2025年7月22日 13:45，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)强势 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. Although the "anti-involution" policy continuously boosts market sentiment, the industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a slight upward trend in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,295 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6.50%. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 4.17%. The basis was -45 yuan, a significant increase of 181.25% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The production profit of heavy soda ash was at a historically low level. The profit of the North China ammonia-alkali method was -135.20 yuan/ton, and that of the East China joint-alkali method was -95.50 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate was 84.10%, and it is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 733,200 tons, with heavy soda ash at 414,700 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large amount of new soda ash production capacity. The planned new capacity in 2025 was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash was 94.24% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 157,800 tons, and the operating rate was stable at 75.63% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline. Affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [30]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.9056 million tons, an increase of 2.26% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five-year average [32]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the soda ash industry experienced fluctuations in supply and demand. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 39.3 million tons, the output was 36.5 million tons, and the supply-demand gap was 1.57 million tons [33]. 3.6 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The "anti-involution" policy boosted market sentiment [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, terminal demand declined, inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern had not been effectively improved [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for metals silicon, PBAT, and valine, indicating a positive outlook for these materials in the chemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector outperformed the broader market and the basic chemical sector, with a weekly change of 1.37% for the new materials index compared to 1.17% for the basic chemical index and 1.09% for the CSI 300 index [8]. - Price increases were noted for metals silicon (+3.16%), PBAT (+0.51%), and valine (+0.35%), while significant declines were observed in electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide (-3.86%), 6F (-1.01%), and epoxy resin (-0.88%) [8][21]. - The report highlights the importance of the new materials sector, particularly in semiconductor materials, which showed significant gains [8][25]. Industry Updates - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting with photovoltaic companies to address low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity, aiming for sustainable development in the solar industry [9]. - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has led to a recovery in trade inquiries and shipping prices, positively impacting chemical prices [10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the new materials sector, particularly in areas that require domestic production capabilities and have been historically reliant on imports [11]. Trading Data - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index stood at 73.06, reflecting a decrease of 0.22% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 25.03% [17]. - The industry inventory percentile is at 91.12%, indicating a high level of stock relative to the past five years [17].

Core Viewpoint - The A500 index is showing positive momentum with significant gains in constituent stocks, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce measures to stabilize growth in key industries [1][2]. Group 1: A500 Index Performance - As of July 21, 2025, the A500 index (000510) increased by 0.28%, with notable gains in stocks such as Zhejiang Fu Holdings (10.15%), Boyuan Chemical (10.06%), and China Power Construction (10.04%) [1]. - The A500 ETF fund (512050) rose by 0.10%, marking its third consecutive increase [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to promote structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity in ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [1]. - Citic Securities indicates that the A-share market is transitioning to an incremental market, with a focus on sectors that can create consensus among investors, particularly in the context of overseas expansion post-mid-year [2]. Group 3: Key Stocks and Weightings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index include Kweichow Moutai (3.81%), CATL (2.88%), and Ping An Insurance (2.58%), collectively accounting for 20.67% of the index [3]. - The performance of these stocks varies, with Kweichow Moutai showing a slight increase of 0.21% and Industrial Bank experiencing a decline of 1.39% [5].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3549.89 points, above the five-day moving average, with an increase of 0.44% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 1,102.604 billion yuan [1] Stocks Performance - A total of 1,176 A-shares have surpassed the five-day moving average, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] - Stocks with the highest deviation rates include: - Hengli Drilling Tools (22.02%) - Zhongshe Consulting (17.79%) - Tiejian Heavy Industry (15.47%) [1] - Other stocks with smaller deviation rates that just crossed the five-day moving average include: - China Ping An - Ruisheng Intelligent - Gais Food [1] Top Performing Stocks - The top stocks that broke through the five-day moving average on July 21, ranked by deviation rate: - Hengli Drilling Tools: 29.96% increase, turnover rate 32.65%, latest price 25.59 yuan - Zhongshe Consulting: 27.79% increase, turnover rate 36.84%, latest price 9.84 yuan - Tiejian Heavy Industry: 19.90% increase, turnover rate 1.53%, latest price 4.94 yuan [1] - Additional notable stocks include: - Guanlong Energy: 20.00% increase, turnover rate 9.58%, latest price 21.30 yuan - Zhuhai Design: 20.03% increase, turnover rate 3.89%, latest price 17.38 yuan [1] Additional Stocks with Notable Performance - Other stocks with significant performance include: - Iron拓 Machinery: 17.27% increase, turnover rate 27.60%, latest price 21.66 yuan - Kelong Co.: 12.59% increase, turnover rate 18.87%, latest price 6.53 yuan - Cheng Tian Wei Ye: 12.02% increase, turnover rate 5.20%, latest price 45.09 yuan [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.7.14-7.18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 影响因素总结 利多： 每周观点 上周纯碱期货延续震荡，主力合约SA2509收盘较前一周下跌0.08%报1216元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1200元/吨，较前一周持平。 供给方面，近期装置检修零散、涉及产能小，个别装置检修恢复，预计下周整体供应呈 现增加趋势，周度产量7万吨，开工率接近85%。需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃需求下滑，存 货意向不足。目前浮法消费相对稳定，光伏受"反内卷"政策影响，大幅减产，消费下降； 周内，浮法日熔量15.84万吨，环比稳定，光 伏日熔量8.91万吨，环比降3000吨。截止7月17日，全国纯碱厂内库存190.56万吨，较 前一周增加2.26%，库存仍处于历史同期高位。综 ...

Group 1 - The fertilizer sector continues to rise, with significant stock price increases observed [1] - Both Boyuan Chemical (000683) and Qingsong Jianhua (600425) reached the daily limit increase [1] - Other companies such as Xuefeng Technology (603227), Kailong Co., Ltd. (002783), Luxi Chemical (000830), Hualu Hengsheng (600426), Yuntianhua (600096), and Xinghuo Technology (600866) also experienced price increases [1]