需求阶段性走强，宏观继续推升锌价 中泰期货· 2026年1月26日 中泰期货研究所 王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 目 录 CONTENTS 1 02 价格 01 综述 03 供给：锌矿、锌锭 04 需求：加工、终端 05 库存 06 其他 综述 综述 | 产业数据 | | 项目 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上期 | 示期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | 在锌矿紧缺背景下,国内锌精矿加工费跌势持续,国产加工费跌至1500元/金 | | 锌精矿国产TC(元/金属吨) | 1500 | 1500 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 属吨后企稳。 | | 尽管随着前期国内冶炼厂减产和进口锌精矿比价的修复,国内锌精矿市场的供 | | | | | | | 需情绪近期有所回暖,但目前国产锌精矿加工费仅暂时出现止跌现象,并未发 进口矿贸易市场上,临近年末,市场矿贸易商多继续休假,周度进口锌精矿报 盘较少,整体成交较为清淡。 | | | | 国内锌精矿产量(月度) ...

日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-23 中国央行表态继续实施适度宽松货币政策 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国消费者支出连续两个月稳步增长 美国最新的 11 月核心 pce 同比符合预期，通胀压力继续可控， 美元指数维持震荡。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比增加 10.07 万吨 综 本周五大品种库存再度累积，随着需求的季节性下滑，和产量 回升，建材累库较为明显。卷板整体小幅去库，需求仍有韧性。 短期矛盾尚不突出，仍建议反弹逢高套保。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行行长潘功胜：今年降准降息还有一定的空间 报 央行呵护流动性的态度较为明确，但预计短期内降准或是大幅 增加买债额度的必要性继续下降。 有色金属（铜） 韩国锌业称美国冶炼厂废料堆含 30 亿美元金属价值 短期宏观因素可能会加剧价格波动，基本面短期因素对铜价形 成抑制，预计盘面短期宽幅震荡可能性更大，策略上短线转观 望。 能源化工（苯乙烯） 苯乙烯周度产量数据 多头增仓意愿强烈，苯乙烯盘面大幅上扬 | 1、 金融要闻及点评 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1. ...

Core Insights - Midas Minerals has successfully completed the acquisition of the Otavi copper project in Namibia, following key conditions such as licence transfers and approval from the Namibian Competition Commission [1][4] Project Overview - The Otavi project consists of ten exclusive prospecting licences covering an area of 1,776 square kilometres, located approximately 360km northeast of Windhoek, Namibia's capital [2] - The project includes two significant deposits, T13 and Deblin, which are pending resource definition, along with several underexplored targets; modern exploration has only been conducted over 36% of the licence area [2] Drilling Activities - Midas has deployed two diamond drill rigs on the high-grade T-13 copper-silver deposit for resource drilling, with a second reverse circulation rig expected to start in early January 2026 [3] - Drilling at the Deblin copper-gold-silver deposit is also planned to commence in early 2026 [3] Company Strategy - The managing director of Midas stated that the acquisition of the Otavi project is transformational for the company, and they plan to rapidly explore and expand the resource base [4] - Midas has already initiated drilling operations with three rigs on T-13 and Spaatzu, with a fourth rig expected to arrive after the Christmas break [5] Financial Position - Midas reported approximately A$15.3 million (about $10.11 million) in cash as of September 2025, which is deemed sufficient to fund ongoing exploration at both Otavi and South Otavi into 2026 [6]

Summary of Triple Flag Precious Metals Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Triple Flag Precious Metals (NYSE: TFPM) - **Founded**: 2016 - **Market Position**: Fourth largest streaming and royalty company in the precious metals sector [2][3] - **Current Sales Guidance**: 105,000 to 115,000 gold-equivalent ounces for 2025, projected to rise to 135,000 to 145,000 by 2029 [3][30] - **Portfolio**: 237 assets, with 30 currently producing [3] Financial Performance - **Dividend**: $0.23 per share, increased annually since IPO in May 2021 [3] - **Available Liquidity**: Approximately $1 billion for new investments [3] - **Capital Deployment**: $2.8 billion since inception, correlating to about $280 million annually [14][15] - **Free Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow and free cash flow are effectively the same due to the absence of ongoing capital expenditures [13] Business Model and Strategy - **Streaming and Royalty Model**: Generates robust free cash flows without the drag of capital expenditures, allowing for a diverse portfolio [4][5] - **Diversification**: Includes various operators, commodities (primarily gold and silver), and jurisdictions [5][21] - **Optionality**: Embedded in contracts, allowing for direct benefits from rising commodity prices without margin variability [6][10] - **Focus on Cash Flow**: Emphasis on acquiring producing mines and near-mine exploration to quickly add value [45][46] Growth Drivers - **Current and Future Projects**: Growth to 135,000 to 145,000 gold-equivalent ounces will come from expansions of existing mines and new exploration projects [30] - **Key Assets**: Northparkes, Beta Hunt, and Hope Bay are highlighted as significant contributors to future growth [30][49] - **Recent Acquisitions**: - 1% royalty on Arthur Gold Project for slightly less than $250 million [51] - 0.5% royalty on Zhejiang's flagship lithium mine for just under $30 million [55] - 5% silver stream on Arcata and Azuca for $35 million [57] Market Outlook - **Gold Price**: Currently nearing $4,000 per ounce, with a positive long-term outlook due to structural factors such as government debt [10][11] - **Investment Philosophy**: Focus on high-quality assets with significant exploration potential, while maintaining a strong balance sheet [40][74] Cultural and Operational Insights - **Team Background**: Predominantly from larger mining companies, emphasizing a blend of operational and financial expertise [44] - **Transparency and Due Diligence**: Strong emphasis on detailed asset evaluation and open communication with partners [47][48] Conclusion - **Long-term Vision**: Commitment to growing free cash flow per share and maintaining alignment with shareholder interests, with a focus on high-quality precious metals exposure [40][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, precious metals have continued to rise, but gold and silver have shown divergence. Gold has repeatedly reached new historical highs, while silver has followed up slowly and faced pressure to fall back. The main driving factors include increased risk - aversion sentiment, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. The current bull market in precious metals differs significantly from previous ones in terms of driving logic, amplitude, and the role of central banks. [4][5][7] - Looking ahead, before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise. However, after the interest rate cuts enter the second half, attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline in precious metal prices due to profit - taking, and the overall volatility of precious metals may further increase. [64] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Since 2025, gold has reached new highs, with London gold reaching a maximum of $3057.14 per ounce, Comex gold reaching $3065.2 per ounce, and domestic Shanghai gold reaching a maximum of 711.24 yuan per gram. Silver has followed up slowly, with London silver reaching a maximum of $34.224 per ounce and domestic Shanghai silver reaching a maximum of 8444 yuan per kilogram. [4] - The main logics for the rise of precious metals since the beginning of the year are: increased risk - aversion sentiment due to global economic and political restructuring, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. [5][7] - This bull market in precious metals differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "cyclical" to "structural"), amplitude and breadth (unprecedented global general increase), and the role of central banks (from "participants" to "leading forces"). [9][10] - The bull market in silver also differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "investment - led" to "investment + industrial demand dual - driven"), breadth and synchronicity (global value re - evaluation), and the relationship with gold (from "following" to "potentially leading"). [12][13] 3.2. Evolution Logic of Safe - Haven Attribute - The world is in the process of transitioning to a new order, with the US no longer the dominant power. There are risks of trade wars, government shutdowns, and potential geopolitical conflicts, which may increase the demand for safe - haven assets. Trump's policy expectations affect precious metal prices through multiple channels, and in the short term, risk - aversion sentiment may support precious metal prices, while in the long term, trade frictions may increase inflation or lead to economic recession, making precious metals more attractive. [14][16] - The volatility of the US stock market may rise, which will increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. [19] 3.3. Evolution Logic of Monetary Attribute - In 2025, US inflation may experience "re - inflation", and the eurozone is close to achieving its anti - inflation target, but trade war risks pose pressure on future interest rate cuts. The Fed has adjusted its monetary policy framework, which may lead to potential changes in US dollar liquidity and have different impacts on various countries. [23] - The US employment situation may continue to weaken, and Trump's new policies may accelerate the decline in employment. Non - farm payroll data has a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate decisions and precious metal prices. [32][35] - The Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates in 2025, with a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points and the process expected to be completed around mid - 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool can help investors predict the Fed's interest rate trends. [41][42] - Global central bank monetary policies have shown significant divergence in recent years. The difference in interest rate cut expectations between the US and non - US countries is crucial. Later, the Fed's larger interest rate cut space may put pressure on the US dollar index. [45] 3.4. Evolution Logic of Commodity Attribute - In 2024, the global gold supply increased steadily, but demand declined. In 2025, demand is expected to continue to show structural divergence. Jewelry demand is suppressed by high gold prices, but official and private gold purchases offset some negative impacts. Gold ETFs, bars, and coins have strong demand, while gold jewelry demand shows a tonnage - consumption divergence. [51] - The World Silver Association predicts that in 2025, the global silver supply - demand gap will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply. [56] 3.5. Technical Analysis - London gold has been in an upward trend since 2000. After reaching a high in 2011 and then falling back, it has started a new upward trend since 2016. In 2025, it has accelerated its upward movement. It is expected to continue to rise before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels of $3750 - 4000 (about 850 - 910 yuan for Shanghai gold) and the support level of $3400 (about 770 yuan for Shanghai gold). [58][59] - London silver has followed a similar trend to gold since 1994. Since 2016, it has oscillated upward along the 20 - year line. The recent rebound in global silver industrial demand may drive its price up. Attention should be paid to the pressure range of $49.8 - 55 (about 11780 - 13000 yuan for Shanghai silver) and the support level of $37.9 (about 8960 yuan for Shanghai silver). [62] 3.6. Future Market Development Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - The reconstruction of the global economic and political system promotes the reconstruction of the monetary system. The safe - haven demand under global economic uncertainty and policy game are complexly intertwined. The continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term Sino - US game, and repeated geopolitical conflicts still support the precious metal market. Before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline. [64] 3.7. Overview of the Domestic Precious Metal Industry Chain - In the first half of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 179.083 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%. After including imported raw material gold, the total gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%. Key gold mine projects are advancing rapidly, and large - scale gold enterprises' overseas mine production has increased. [67][68] - In the first half of 2025, domestic gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. Gold jewelry consumption was suppressed by high prices, while demand for gold bars and coins increased, and industrial and other gold uses also increased. [69]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Global central bank meeting, Powell's dovish speech, market's Fed rate - cut expectation heats up, boosting risk appetite and affecting multiple asset prices [13][17][58] - Multiple commodities are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international events, showing different trends and investment opportunities [26][32][59] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose tariffs on imported furniture, and Powell hints at a September rate cut [12][13] - Gold price rose about 1% on Friday. Market priced in a 25bp rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year. But current positives can't break gold out of the consolidation [13] - Investment advice: Gold price will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Iran's supreme leader rules out direct talks with the US, and the US vice - president says new sanctions on Russia are "not impossible" [15][16] - Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting is dovish. The Fed's policy focus shifts to the labor market, and the US dollar index trends weaker [17] - Investment advice: The US dollar trends weaker [18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell signals a rate cut, and Canada cancels some retaliatory tariffs on US goods [19][20] - Market sentiment turns cautious initially, then risk appetite recovers after Powell's dovish speech. US stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [21] - Investment advice: Expect US stocks to fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to rate - cut expectations. Pay attention to Nvidia's earnings report and July PCE data next week [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Chinese leaders attend the SCO Summit - related events, and the State Council studies measures to release sports consumption potential [22][23] - A - shares are strong with increasing trading volume, showing a short - term bullish pattern. But beware of the test of mid - year reports [24] - Investment advice: Suggest balanced long positions in stock index futures [25] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity is 36.7 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [26] - Coal price ends its rising trend and enters a weak consolidation. It is expected to fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan in the future [26][27] - Investment advice: Coal price may decline slightly with the season. It is expected to fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan [27] 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Guangxi acquires 20,000 existing commercial housing units [28] - Iron ore price continues to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are slightly weak, and the market sentiment is divided. It is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern [28][29] - Investment advice: Iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The downside is limited, and it is expected to remain in a consolidation pattern [29] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The WTO supports Indonesia in the biodiesel tariff dispute, and the Trump administration makes decisions on SRE applications [30][31] - The negative impact of SRE is less than expected, and US soybean oil price rebounds. Domestic edible oils are expected to rise and then fluctuate [32] - Investment advice: After last week's adjustment, US biofuel policies drive up US soybean oil price. Domestic edible oils are expected to rise and then fluctuate, with palm oil having the largest increase [32] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Cotton mills destock, Brazil's cotton exports reach a record high, and US cotton export contracts are poor [33][34][35] - US cotton export contracts are still weak, and ICE cotton price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [35][36] - Investment advice: ICE cotton price has limited upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Pay continuous attention to demand [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar inventory decreases, a large - scale sugar shipment is made to China, and sugar production estimates are lowered [37][38][40] - International sugar production may be lower than expected, supporting sugar price. Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be long - entry opportunities on dips [41][42] - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar price has limited downside and is expected to fluctuate. Wait for long - entry opportunities on dips for the January contract [42] 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel mills' iron - making capacity utilization and iron - water output are at a certain level, and the automobile industry's inventory decreases [43][44] - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory, and steel price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to actual demand release in mid - to late September [44][45] - Investment advice: Steel price fluctuates. Wait for market dips [46] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase by 3%, and Pro Farmer predicts US soybean yield [47][48] - CBOT soybean price rises due to demand. China's soybean imports in Q4 to next Q1 affect soybean meal supply. Long positions on dips are recommended [49] - Investment advice: Long soybean meal on dips but don't chase highs. Pay continuous attention to Sino - US relations [49] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Cassava starch port inventory decreases slightly, and the price difference with corn starch widens slightly [50][51] - Corn starch inventory pressure is high, and the CS11 - C11 spread may strengthen when new - season production is determined [51][52][53] - Investment advice: The CS11 - C11 spread may strengthen when new - season production is determined [53] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn price in North China is weakening, and the market is bearish as new grain approaches [54] - Corn futures price may fluctuate widely around 2150. Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads [54] - Investment advice: Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads. Pay attention to weather and policies [54] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glencore plans to produce 1 million tons of copper in Argentina, and Freeport Indonesia will accelerate copper concentrate exports [55][56] - Powell's dovish speech supports copper price. Copper price is expected to turn to a fluctuating - strong pattern in the short - term [58][59] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - term long - biased strategy for copper futures. Take profits on domestic - foreign reverse spreads and turn to observation [59] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The "capacity clearance" document is confirmed, and a phosphoric acid iron - lithium industry meeting is held [60] - Short - term de - stocking provides support, and there are opportunities for long positions on dips and positive spreads [61] - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - entry opportunities on dips and positive spreads [61] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic industry advocates fair competition, and Huadian Group's 20GW photovoltaic module procurement is bid [62][64] - Component prices are expected to rise, driving up upstream prices. Polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short - term [65][66] - Investment advice: Adopt a long - biased strategy on dips for polysilicon futures. Consider 11 - 12 reverse spreads around - 2000 yuan/ton [66] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating capacity of industrial silicon's main production areas increases [67] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are slightly weakening. Its price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [68] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang. Industrial silicon price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [68] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GEM signs a strategic cooperation agreement with Weilan Lithium [69] - Powell's dovish speech may boost nickel price in the short - term. Nickel price is expected to fluctuate, with short - term long - entry opportunities and medium - term short - entry opportunities on highs [70][71] - Investment advice: Short - term long - entry opportunities and medium - term short - entry opportunities on highs for nickel [71] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME lead shows a discount, and lead's supply - demand is weak [72] - Lead price has cost support, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [72][73] - Investment advice: Observe in the short - term for lead [73] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc shows a discount, and a Peruvian zinc mine resumes operation [74] - Zinc price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread strategy before overseas inventory bottoms out [75] - Investment advice: Observe for zinc in the short - term. Pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread strategy before overseas inventory bottoms out [75] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - EUA's closing price is 72.53 euros/ton, and carbon price is affected by energy and geopolitics [76] - EU carbon price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [76][77] - Investment advice: EU carbon price will fluctuate in the short - term [77] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US oil rig count decreases [78] - Oil price rises slightly and is expected to fluctuate in a range, waiting for new drivers [78][79] - Investment advice: Oil price will fluctuate in a range in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [79] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rises, with supply increasing slightly and demand stable [80][81] - Caustic soda price is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Be cautious when chasing highs [83] - Investment advice: The 9.3 military parade may disrupt supply. The spot price may have limited upside. Be cautious when chasing highs [83] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of pulp in Shandong rises, with supply increasing slightly and demand stable [82][84] - Pulp price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [85] - Investment advice: Pulp price will fluctuate in the short - term [85] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - PVC powder price is narrowly sorted, with weak downstream procurement and some good export orders [86] - PVC price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to anti - dumping duties [87] - Investment advice: PVC price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to anti - dumping duties [87] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export quotes change little, and domestic prices increase [88][89] - Bottle chip inventory is decreasing due to production cuts. Its price follows polyester raw materials [89] - Investment advice: Bottle chip inventory is decreasing due to production cuts. Pay attention to the pressure from device restart and new capacity [89] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash market in Shahe fluctuates, with prices slightly rising and stable basis [90] - Soda ash price rises slightly, with stable fundamentals. Adopt a short - entry strategy on highs [90] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - entry strategy on highs for soda ash. Pay attention to supply disturbances [90] 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass price in Shahe is stable, with different factory shipment situations [91] - Glass price rises slightly. Be cautious with single - side operations and focus on arbitrage [92] - Investment advice: Be cautious with single - side operations for float glass. Focus on the long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy when the spread widens [92] 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - A shipping company halts a new - shipbuilding plan due to high costs [93] - SCFI index declines. Container freight rate is expected to decline, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Look for short - entry opportunities on highs [93][94] - Investment advice: Look for short - entry opportunities on highs for container freight rate futures. The October contract tests the 1300 support level [94]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Copper: With a downward adjustment in the Fed's rate - cut expectations and a slowdown in the rally of the domestic equity market, the sentiment has weakened slightly. The copper raw material supply remains tight with significant short - term supply disruptions, strongly supporting copper prices. However, the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may oscillate strongly [1]. - Aluminum: The domestic commodity atmosphere is still supported by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and the tariff's marginal impact remains to be seen. The overall sentiment is neutral. Domestically, aluminum ingot inventories are at a relatively low level, and the rebound in export data indicates strong external demand, firmly supporting aluminum prices. Downstream consumption is weak, and the volatile trade situation exerts pressure. Short - term aluminum prices are likely to oscillate [3]. - Lead: In August, the port inventory of lead ore has increased, and the operating rate of primary lead has recovered. The raw material inventory of secondary lead remains low, and its operating rate is slowly rising. Lead ingot social inventory has increased again. Downstream consumption is under great pressure, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has dropped rapidly. There may be structural disturbances in the LME market, and there is a certain short - term risk of decline [4]. - Zinc: The zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, TC has continued to rise, and the zinc ore supply remains loose. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has continued to increase, the smelter's production plan is high, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement. The domestic zinc ingot market remains in an oversupply situation. The LME market's structural disturbances are gradually subsiding, and zinc prices still face a large risk of decline [5]. - Tin: The expectation of tin ore supply recovery has strengthened, and the tin ore output is expected to be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. However, the smelter still faces short - term raw material supply pressure. Domestic consumption in the off - season has been poor, while overseas demand driven by AI computing power has been strong. Short - term supply and demand are both weak, and tin prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Nickel: The short - term macro - atmosphere is positive, and the prices of stainless steel and nickel - iron have strengthened, driving a slight rebound in nickel prices. However, the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is still pressure for price correction [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The marginal improvement in supply is the focus of the market. News disturbances significantly affect the market sentiment, and the uncertainty of capital games is high. Speculative funds are advised to wait and see cautiously [10][11]. - Alumina: The supply disturbances of domestic and foreign ores continue, which is expected to support ore prices. However, the over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. After the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market fades, it is recommended to short at high levels [13]. - Stainless Steel: The upward movement of stainless steel futures prices is blocked, leading to increased market wait - and - see sentiment and decreased trading activity. Some product prices have slightly declined. The market demand has not shown an obvious recovery, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is still in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. The cost side provides strong support recently, but the upward price space is relatively limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed flat at $9777/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78940 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 25 to 155850 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.6 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: Short - term copper prices may oscillate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9680 - 9850/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose 0.59% to $2624/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20760 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 58.8 tons [3]. - Price Outlook: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to oscillate, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20600 - 20850 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2590 - 2650/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index fell 0.92% to 16778 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1983.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: There is a certain short - term risk of decline [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index fell 0.59% to 22488 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2817/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 12.92 tons [5]. - Price Outlook: Zinc prices still face a large risk of decline [5]. Tin - Price: SHFE tin main contract closed at 267420 yuan/ton, down 0.89% [6]. - Inventory: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 8 tons to 7422 tons, and LME inventory increased by 50 tons to 1830 tons [6]. - Price Outlook: Short - term tin prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 34000/ton for LME tin [6]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices declined and adjusted [8]. - Price Outlook: Short - term nickel prices may rebound slightly but still face correction pressure, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 1.22% to 82832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed at 85300 yuan, up 0.24% [10]. - Production and Inventory: This week's domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 2.2% to 19980 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142256 tons [10]. - Price Outlook: The futures contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to run in the range of 82400 - 88800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 0.98% to 3222 yuan/ton [13]. - Inventory: Thursday's futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.87 tons to 5.17 tons [13]. - Price Outlook: It is recommended to short at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment fades, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13025 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [15]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 107.89 tons, a 2.48% decrease [15]. - Price Outlook: The market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract fell 0.3% to 20140 yuan/ton [16]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption area's recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.07 tons to 3.52 tons [16]. - Price Outlook: The upward price space is relatively limited [16].