1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the next one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to remain range - bound. The supply side is tight, the demand side is generally stable but with weak new demand, and the macro - sentiment is affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 27, 2026, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to 95,820 yuan/ton, a 0.59% increase from the previous day. The LME copper price on March 26, 2026, was 12,120 US dollars/ton, down from the previous day. The premium of flat - water copper strengthened, rising to - 100 yuan/ton, while the premiums of premium copper and wet - process copper remained stable [1][39]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: On March 26, 2026, the LME copper futures position increased slightly to 296,463 lots, an increase of 326 lots from the previous day, indicating a slight increase in market participation. There is no direct data on trading volume [1]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Mine supply is continuously tight. The commissioning of Rio Tinto's Resolution copper mine is delayed until the 2030s, and Barrick has postponed the development of the Reko Diq project in Pakistan, increasing medium - and long - term supply uncertainty. The supply of recycled copper is tight, leading to a narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference and a significant decline in the domestic trade copper concentrate processing fee. Chile faces a risk of sulfuric acid shortage, which may push up smelting costs and suppress short - term production capacity release [2]. - **Demand Side**: Overall demand is stable but shows obvious differentiation. The SMM copper cable production start - up rate increased slightly by 0.24 percentage points to 70.77%. However, the demand in the home appliance field is weakening, and the new orders in the home decoration and enameled wire industries are weak due to the rising price of plastic raw materials. The automobile field provides some support, but new orders decreased by 11.19 percentage points month - on - month [2]. - **Inventory Side**: Domestic inventory continues the destocking trend. On March 26, 2026, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas decreased by 18.29% month - on - month, decreasing for two consecutive weeks. The LME inventory on March 27, 2026, dropped to 237,076 tons, a 3.8% decrease month - on - month, but the absolute level is still at a near - 8 - year high. The SHFE inventory increased slightly to 360,250 tons, reflecting the pressure of imported goods arriving at the port, but the expectation of destocking is rising [2]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to remain range - bound. The driving reasons are tight supply (mine shutdowns and recycled copper shortages support costs), generally stable demand (existing orders support but new demand is weak), and macro - sentiment being disturbed by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East (escalation of conflicts may suppress risk appetite). The price range is 12,000 - 12,500 US dollars/ton for LME copper and 95,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, as the supply is supported by the export ban in Zimbabwe and upstream reluctance to sell, but the demand is weak due to the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream procurement, and the inventory reduction provides limited support while macro - geopolitical risks suppress market sentiment [3][57] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 20, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose slightly to 143,860 yuan/ton, a 0.88% increase from the previous day, continuing the recent volatile trend. The basis weakened significantly to 6,140 yuan/ton, narrowing by 7,260 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 54.18% [1][53] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position volume shrank by 2.18% to 276,578 lots, a decrease of 6,167 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume shrank by 10.5% to 258,276 lots, a decrease of 30,295 lots from the previous day, indicating a significant decline in trading activity [1][54] 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: On March 20, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 16,235 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase from the previous day, while the price of lepidolite concentrate dropped significantly by 6.01% to 8,600 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 73.46%. The export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe has not been lifted, and the import volume of spodumene fluctuated from January to February, increasing the reluctance of upstream lithium salt plants to sell and reducing the willingness to sell single orders, constraining the supply [2][55] - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. On March 20, 2026, the price of power ternary materials dropped by 0.55% to 182,250 yuan/ton, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate dropped by 1.57% to 53,290 yuan/ton. The cell prices were basically stable, with only the square lithium iron phosphate cell rising slightly by 1.08%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, in the first half of March, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 28% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 19% year - on - year. The demand was weak, and the procurement rhythm of downstream material plants slowed down, with only a few low - inventory enterprises maintaining rigid demand replenishment [2][55] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 0.09% to 98,873 physical tons, a decrease of 86 tons from the previous week, continuing the inventory reduction trend. The overall inventory pressure in the market was relieved, and the upstream reluctance to sell and the downstream inventory preparation until early April led to a shortage of circulating goods [2][56] 1.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The supply side is supported by the Zimbabwe export ban and upstream reluctance to sell, but the cost drive is weakened by the decline in lepidolite price and import fluctuations. The demand side remains weak due to the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream procurement, and the macro - geopolitical risks (such as the Middle East situation) suppress market sentiment. The slight inventory reduction provides limited support, but there is a lack of strong unilateral drive. Overall, the price will fluctuate within the current range, with the upside limited by insufficient demand and the downside buffered by supply constraints [3][57] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Various price data of lithium - related products on March 20, 2026, are provided, including the main contract of lithium carbonate, basis, position, trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lepidolite concentrate market price, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, power lithium iron phosphate, etc., along with their price changes and rates compared with the previous day or previous week [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.1 Spot Market Quotation - On March 20, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot index continued to decline. The futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main contract once reached 148,000 yuan/ton after the opening, and the highest in the noon reached over 150,000 yuan/ton, then fell under pressure and closed at around 144,000 yuan/ton. As of the close, the position volume decreased by about 6,200 lots compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, after the downstream material plants' concentrated replenishment the previous day, the procurement rhythm slowed down significantly today. Some enterprises' raw material inventories have been prepared until early April, and only a few low - inventory enterprises maintained rigid demand and purchased at low prices. Upstream lithium salt plants were less willing to sell single orders due to the continuous decline in prices, and some manufacturers still insisted on quotes above 160,000 yuan/ton. The overall trading activity in the market decreased compared with the previous trading day. At the macro level, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased and the crude oil price fluctuated, leading to a decline in market risk preference and overall pressure on the industrial metal sector. On the supply side, the export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe has not been lifted, providing bottom - support for the price. In general, in the short term, the lithium carbonate price may maintain a wide - range volatile pattern under the game between bearish macro sentiment and supply - side constraints [6] 3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on March 18, from March 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 285,000 units, a 28% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in March last year, and a 36% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1.345 million units, a 26% year - on - year decrease. From March 1 - 15, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers were 325,000 units, a 19% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in March last year, and a 47% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 1.914 million units, a 10% year - on - year decrease [7] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Multiple data charts are provided, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [8][10][12][14][16][18][20][21]

Group 1: Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose by 65 yuan to 4385 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained flat at 4285 yuan/ton. The basis (spot - futures) widened from -35 yuan/ton to -100 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper futures premium [2][39]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: Open interest increased by 28,121 lots to 334,653 lots, a 9.17% increase, while trading volume decreased by 146,022 lots to 939,371 lots, a 13.45% decrease. This may suggest that market participants are taking a wait - and - see attitude or increasing their positions while trading activity declines [2][39]. Group 2: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 63.83%, with the oil - based operating rate at 60.11% and the coal - based operating rate at 63.6%. Coal - based, natural gas - based, and associated gas - based production profits increased significantly, while ethylene - based production profits declined, indicating that low - cost production methods have improved profitability, but overall supply remained stable [2][40]. - **Demand Side**: The load of polyester factories was 89.42% and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both remaining unchanged, indicating stable demand [3][41]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 66,000 tons to 1,068,000 tons, a 6.59% increase, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 56,000 tons to 561,000 tons, an 11.09% increase, indicating an inventory build - up and potential supply surplus [3][41]. Group 3: Price Trend Judgment The current inventory is accumulating, demand is stable but not high, and supply is stable. The increase in futures prices may be driven by expectations or capital, but the fundamentals are weak. It is expected that prices may fluctuate or face downward pressure unless demand improves or supply decreases. The reasons include the improvement in coal - based production profits but the deterioration in oil - based production profits, the possible increase in foreign arrivals (indicated by the inventory increase), stable downstream operating rates, and high port inventory pressure [45].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 6, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate slightly increased to 156,160 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan or 0.19% from the previous trading day, while the basis weakened to 640 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 31.91% from the previous day [1][34][35]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: On March 6, 2026, the open interest expanded to 333,903 lots, an increase of 1,529 lots or 0.46% from the previous day, and the trading volume shrank to 228,224 lots, a decrease of 72,281 lots or 24.05% from the previous day [1][36][37]. *** Industry Chain Supply, Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On March 6, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 16,600 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,000 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased to 73.46%, down 12.26 percentage points from the previous week. Upstream lithium salt producers ended maintenance but were reluctant to sell and eager to hold up prices, with weak willingness to sell spot orders. Overseas mines held up prices, resulting in light overall trading [2][28][38]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials slightly declined, with ternary materials dropping to 182,050 yuan/ton and lithium iron phosphate dropping to 54,810 yuan/ton on March 6, 2026. Although the sales volume of new energy vehicles from February 1 - 8 increased year - on - year, the sales volume in the first quarter fell short of expectations, affecting the procurement rhythm of downstream battery cell manufacturers. Material manufacturers showed strong procurement willingness and increased production schedules, and were eager to replenish stocks when prices corrected, but overall, they were cautious and mainly adopted a wait - and - see approach, with light actual trading [2][31][39]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of lithium carbonate slightly decreased to 99,373 physical tons on March 6, 2026, a decrease of 720 tons or 0.72% from the previous week, indicating slow inventory depletion. Warehouse receipt data were not directly provided, but the inventory decrease might reflect a reduction in warehouse receipt pressure [2][31][40]. *** Price Trend Judgment It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side capacity utilization rate is gradually recovering despite the decline, and the reluctance of upstream producers to sell supports prices. On the demand side, although new energy vehicle sales are growing, they fall short of expectations, and downstream procurement is cautious with limited restocking demand. The inventory is slightly decreasing but the depletion speed is slow. The overall market shows a supply - demand game with a lack of a clear directional driver [3][31][41]

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract decreased from 3,935.0 yuan/ton on February 12, 2026, to 3,899.0 yuan/ton on February 13, 2026, a drop of 36.0 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The spot price in East China also declined from 3,605.0 yuan/ton to 3,560.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.0 yuan/ton or 1.25%. The basis (spot minus futures) was -339 yuan/ton, with the negative value deepening, indicating an expanding discount of the spot market relative to the futures [1]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 437,707 lots to 430,898 lots, a reduction of 6,809 lots or 1.56%. The trading volume declined from 200,272 lots to 189,398 lots, a decrease of 10,874 lots or 5.43%. Both open interest and trading volume decreased, suggesting a weakening short - term speculative sentiment and an increase in market wait - and - see atmosphere [1]. *** Analysis of Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 65.29%, with the oil - based operating rate at 65.57% and the coal - based operating rate at 58.64%, showing no changes. However, the profits from oil - based, coal - based, and natural - gas - based production all declined significantly. For example, the profit from ethylene - SD oxidation method dropped from - 755.0 yuan/ton to - 950.7 yuan/ton, the coal - based profit decreased from - 50.53 yuan/ton to - 130.13 yuan/ton, and the natural - gas - based profit fell from 350.0 yuan/ton to 280.0 yuan/ton. Despite the profit decline, the operating rate remained unchanged, indicating a rigid supply [1]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no changes. This indicates that the terminal demand is stable but has not improved. With the high - level stability of polyester and loom loads, the demand side provides limited support and does not drive up prices [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 897,000 tons to 935,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons or 4.24%. Although the inventory in Zhangjiagang slightly decreased by 4,000 tons to 450,000 tons, the overall port inventory increased, reflecting an increase in arriving goods or insufficient shipments. The supply - demand pattern remains loose [2]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The price of ethylene glycol is likely to continue to face pressure, with a possible low - level oscillation or further decline. The reasons are as follows: The profits of ethylene glycol production have been compressed, and all types of production methods have seen a decline in profits, which may be due to rising raw material costs or falling product prices. Although there is no direct data on the prices of raw materials such as crude oil and coal, the profit decline implies that costs may have increased or product prices have decreased. The downstream demand remains stable, but the supply is rigid, and the port inventory has increased, putting greater pressure on the market [31][34].

Group 1: Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,938 yuan/ton to 3,975 yuan/ton, a 0.94% increase The basis (spot price - futures price) widened from -318 yuan/ton to -325 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper futures premium [2][34] - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract increased significantly by 31.39%, from 207,474 lots to 272,604 lots, while the open interest decreased by 2.55%, from 439,988 lots to 428,779 lots [2][35] Group 2: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate dropped 3.17 percentage points to 61.71%, mainly due to a 4.99 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based operating rate to 63.4%, while the coal - based operating rate remained stable at 52.53% Profits from various production processes generally deteriorated, with oil - based production profits dropping significantly, indicating increased raw material cost pressure and a greater risk of supply contraction [2][38] - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained stable at 63.43%, showing that overall demand had no significant change, indicating some resilience in terminal consumption but a lack of growth momentum [3][39] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased 4.24% to 935,000 tons, while the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly by 0.88% to 450,000 tons The overall inventory accumulation highlighted the pressure of oversupply, with more arrivals at the ports and insufficient demand digestion [3][39] Group 3: Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price may face medium - term downward pressure The short - term rise in futures prices is driven by market sentiment and active trading, and the decline in the supply - side operating rate and profit deterioration may continue to support high prices However, continuous inventory accumulation, lack of demand growth, and deep losses in cost - side profits will limit the upside space If inventory reduction is less than expected or cost pressure intensifies, prices may turn weak for adjustment [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The report anticipates that ethylene glycol will continue to oscillate at a low level due to significant inventory accumulation pressure, with limited upside potential for prices without a boost in demand or a substantial reduction in supply [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Section 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures and Basis**: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures dropped from 3,986.0 yuan/ton to 3,933.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.0 yuan or 1.33%. The East China spot price fell from 3,675.0 yuan/ton to 3,630.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.0 yuan or 1.22%. The basis narrowed from -311 yuan to -303 yuan, indicating a reduced futures discount [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract increased from 286,954 lots to 312,882 lots, an increase of 25,928 lots or 9.04%, reflecting increased market activity. Open interest slightly increased from 398,467 lots to 400,272 lots, an increase of 1805 lots or 0.45%, suggesting intensified long - short competition without a clear direction [1] - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased from 66.19% to 65.31%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, mainly dragged down by the coal - based operating rate, which dropped from 54.92% to 52.53%. The oil - based operating rate remained stable at 69.34%. Coal - based profit increased from - 193.33 yuan/ton to - 50.53 yuan/ton, while oil - based profit decreased from - 688.0 yuan/ton to - 803.0 yuan/ton [1] - **Demand Side**: The downstream polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained stable at 63.43%, indicating stable but ungrowing terminal consumption [2] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the East China main port increased from 858,000 tons to 897,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons or 4.55%. The Zhangjiagang inventory increased from 443,000 tons to 454,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons or 2.48%, showing an obvious inventory accumulation trend [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures Data**: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures decreased, the trading volume increased, and the open interest slightly increased. The spot price also decreased, and the basis narrowed [4] - **Profit Data**: Profits from most ethylene - based production methods decreased, while coal - based, natural - gas - based, and oilfield associated - gas - based profits increased [4] - **Operating Rate Data**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased, mainly due to the decline in the coal - based operating rate, while the oil - based, polyester factory, Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates remained stable [4] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory at the East China main port and Zhangjiagang increased [4] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On February 5, the East China US - dollar - denominated ethylene glycol market weakened in the morning and stabilized in the afternoon. The international crude oil price continued to strengthen, but due to the weak supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol, the market was bearish on the future. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and the East China price was around 3,640 yuan/ton. The mainstream market adjusted weakly, with prices in the South China and Shaanxi markets also decreasing [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, East China main port inventory statistics, and total industry inventory [6][8][10][12][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are weakly stable. The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3123 yuan and 3287 yuan respectively. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar remains at 200 yuan. Due to raw material prices being weaker than steel prices, the profitability of steel mills has increased. Production is stable at a low level, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is decreasing. The supply - demand of the industry is weak. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is obvious, the supply - demand gap of rebar is widening, and inventory is accumulating significantly. The demand for hot - rolled coil has not declined much, and the inventory is still being depleted. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate within a range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3200 yuan, and hot - rolled coil is expected to fluctuate between 3250 - 3350 yuan. The long - position on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be continued to hold [1] Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated weakly yesterday. The ore price is still under pressure. Although Vale's production suspension event has limited impact on supply, the supply side has a slightly increasing global shipment volume, with a marginal decline in the shipment center but still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. The demand side is expected to keep the molten iron production stable, and the seasonal decline in the port clearance volume indicates that the resumption of molten iron production before the festival is restricted. Steel exports have weakened significantly. Port inventory continues to accumulate but at a slower pace, and steel mill inventory growth has also slowed down. Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure. It can be short - sold around 800 yuan. Be vigilant against macro - level fluctuations [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a weakly declining trend yesterday. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has landed and stabilized. The supply side has slightly reduced production due to pressure on coking profits. The demand side has seen a slight recovery in molten iron production after the New Year's Day. The inventory in ports and steel mills has increased, while that in coking plants has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. The mainstream coking enterprises have initiated a price increase, but it has not been implemented, and the post - festival market is expected to be loose. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1600 - 1750 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Coking coal futures also showed a weakly declining trend. The supply side has seen an increase in daily production and better shipments but insufficient inventory reduction. The demand side has limited downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival. The inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills has increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1000 - 1150 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The main ferrosilicon contract oscillated weakly yesterday, with a continuous decline in open interest. The supply is stable at a low level, and most regions' production is flat compared to last week. The steel - making demand is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival, and the non - steel demand has weakened. The cost in Inner Mongolia may increase due to the expected electricity price adjustment. The overall situation is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan. The main ferromanganese contract also oscillated weakly, with a gradual increase in open interest. The supply has decreased, and the production is at a historically low level. The demand is also weak, and the high inventory still suppresses the price. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan [6] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3280 yuan to 3260 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 16 yuan [1] Cost and Profit - The price of steel billet decreased by 20 yuan to 2930 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan to 27 yuan [1] Production - The daily average molten iron production was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The production of rebar increased by 9.3 tons to 199.6 tons, with a 4.9% increase, and the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.9 tons to 305.4 tons, with a 1.0% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 10.1 tons to 1257.1 tons, with a 0.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 14.0 tons to 452.1 tons, with a 3.2% increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.6 tons to 357.8 tons, with a 1.3% decrease [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 1.0 tons to 6.6 tons, with a 12.8% decrease. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 16.6 tons to 809.5 tons, with a 2.0% decrease [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 - contract for some varieties decreased. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan to - 31.0 yuan, with a 5.1% decrease [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 129.7 tons to 2530.0 tons, with a 4.9% decrease, and the global shipment volume increased by 48.4 tons to 2978.3 tons, with a 1.7% increase [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 9.2 tons to 310.7 tons, with a 2.9% decrease [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 211.4 tons to 16766.53 tons, with a 1.3% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.6 tons to 9388.8 tons, with a 1.4% increase [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures and spot prices generally decreased. For example, the 05 - contract price of coke decreased by 51 yuan to 1668 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 43 yuan to 1117 yuan [5] Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.3 tons, with a 0.2% decrease, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 tons to 46.9 tons, with a 0.4% increase. The raw coal production of sample mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, with a 0.3% decrease [5] Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The demand for coke mainly comes from the molten iron production [5] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 18.9 tons to 939.2 tons, with a 2.1% increase. The coking coal inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports decreased [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The main contract prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly. The SF - SM main spread decreased by 14 yuan to - 214 yuan [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit decreased. The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port were relatively stable [6] Supply - The production of ferrosilicon was stable at a low level, and the production of ferromanganese decreased slightly. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 5.2 tons to 77.7 tons, with a 7.2% increase [6] Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steel - making is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival. The non - steel demand for ferrosilicon has weakened [6] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.3 tons to 6.7 tons, with a 5.4% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises was stable [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market shows weak supply and demand. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is significant, while the decline in hot - rolled coil demand is relatively small. The recent cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the steel price center. The reference range for the May rebar contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan. Consider closing long positions on the steel - to - ore ratio when it rises, and continue to hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. The support factors for iron ore are reversing, with iron - making resumption falling short of expectations, potential changes in negotiation deadlocks, and the gradual fulfillment of steel mill restocking. The price is under overall pressure, and it is advisable to short at around 800 yuan [4]. Coke Industry - The coke market is currently stable. After the fourth - round price cut, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and limiting production to maintain prices. The mainstream coke enterprises are initiating a price increase, which is expected to be realized. The market is expected to be looser after the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, the spot market is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures market has over - anticipated the price increase. After the Spring Festival, the market supply and demand are expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [7]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, lacking upward drivers at the industrial level. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly within the range of 5300 - 5800 yuan, with short - term attention to macro and policy factors [8]. Ferromanganese Industry - Ferromanganese is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan, with short - term attention to macro and policy factors [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. The rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract price decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 3117 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil spot price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 3286 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2930 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons to 819.2 tons, an increase of 0.1%. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 tons to 190.3 tons, a decrease of 0.4%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.9 tons to 308.4 tons, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons to 1247.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The rebar inventory remained unchanged at 438.1 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.8 tons to 362.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 7.6, a decrease of 2.2%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons to 826.1 tons, an increase of 3.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 15.4 tons to 190.3 tons, an increase of 8.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 5.8 tons to 314.2 tons, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties decreased, with the PB powder warehouse - receipt cost decreasing by 5.5 yuan/ton to 850.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. The 05 - contract basis of some varieties changed slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 17.5, a decrease of 2.8% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons to 2659.7 tons, a decrease of 8.9%. The global shipment volume decreased by 251.0 tons to 2929.9 tons, a decrease of 7.9%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11964.7 tons, an increase of 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average ore removal volume decreased by 3.4 tons to 661.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 162.3 tons to 6072.0 tons, a decrease of 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 279.8 tons to 16555.10 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 272.6 tons to 9262.2 tons, an increase of 3.0%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 days to 21.0 days, an increase of 10.5% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 05 contract price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1684 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6%. The coking profit decreased by 20 yuan/ton [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2%. The coking coal 05 contract price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1129 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The sample coal mine profit increased by 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.74% [7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 tons to 46.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 4.3 tons to 920.2 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.3 tons to 81.8 tons, a decrease of 4.9%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.6 tons to 650.3 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The coking coal inventory of various sectors increased to varying degrees [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in most regions remained unchanged, with the 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia at 5250 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferromanganese in some regions also remained unchanged, with the FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia at 5680 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon主力合约收盘价 increased by 4.0 yuan/ton to 5556.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14%, and the ferromanganese主力合约收盘价 increased by 26.0 yuan/ton to 5786.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5% [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The manganese ore prices of some varieties decreased slightly [8]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise's weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 29.2%, a decrease of 1.4%. The ferromanganese weekly output remained unchanged at 19.1 tons, and the start - up rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 36.1%, a decrease of 2.0% [8]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese demand remained unchanged. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6% [8]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.5 tons to 6.4 tons, a decrease of 7.5%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.0 tons to 37.3 tons, a decrease of 2.5% [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The short - term outlook for ethylene glycol may be a low - level oscillating pattern. The marginal contraction of supply provides bottom support for prices, but the lack of improvement in the polyester and terminal weaving loads on the demand side, along with the increase in port inventories to a yearly high, suppresses the price rebound space. Future attention should be paid to cost - side fluctuations in crude oil/coal and the seasonal improvement rhythm of downstream orders. If inventory depletion fails to meet expectations, prices may test previous lows again [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: From September 30 to October 9, the price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped from 4,207 yuan/ton to 4,158 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.16%, showing a five - day consecutive downward trend. The East China spot price also fell by 45 yuan/ton to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened from 63 yuan/ton to 112 yuan/ton, deepening the futures discount [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots, indicating intensified market divergence and active short - side position - increasing during the price decline [2]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 70.33%, with a significant 1.6 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based unit operating rate to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 62.95%. The contraction of oil - based production capacity provides marginal support to the supply side [2]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand showed no obvious improvement, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand. The polyester segment lacked incremental drivers for ethylene glycol consumption [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The East China main port inventory increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory soared by 40.6% to 18 tons in a single week. The arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, indicating low actual port shipments and accelerating inventory pressure [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 1.16% to 4,158 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price decreased by 1.05% to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened by 77.78% to 112 yuan/ton [5]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The main contract position increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.37% to 70.3%, with the oil - based operating rate dropping by 2.13% to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On October 9, the East China US - dollar market first declined and then slightly recovered, with no reported transactions. The mainstream market center dropped, and prices in the South China, Shaanxi, and East China markets all decreased due to weak supply - demand patterns and downstream demand [6]. - During the holiday, international oil prices fell, weakening cost - side support. Domestic ethylene glycol supply increased, and port inventories accumulated [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, domestic ethylene glycol unit operating rates, downstream polyester unit operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics [7][9][11].