地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 11 日 热点品种 焦煤： 焦煤今日高开高走，日内走强。现货方面，山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 970 元/吨，较上个交易日+10 元/吨；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 753/吨，较上个交易日 +3 元/吨。基本面来看，7 月 10—17 日蒙古国庆那达慕放假，中蒙口岸闭关，进 口煤数量进一步减少，国内受安全月检查影响的矿山及洗煤厂陆续复产，本期开 工率及产量均回升。受蒙煤进口量缩量影响，供应压力有缓解。"反内卷"举措 有望落地，供给侧改革的影响较大，市场对产能出清预期反应积极。近期行情升 温，贸易商拿货积极，矿山精煤库存连续去化，本期库存环比去化 7.92%左右， 库存向下传导，焦企焦煤库存大幅增加。焦炭前期四轮提降，近期行情火热，焦 企今日提涨，预计周一落地。钢厂铁水产量继续下滑，行情上涨主要系供应端矛 盾。短期行情依然偏强，关注焦企提涨后续。 原油： 伊朗微弱的报复行动及伊以实现全面停火，无疑将此前紧张的中东地缘风险急剧 降温，极大得缓解了市 ...

截至2025年7月11日 13:49，光伏ETF(159857)多空胶着，盘中换手6.05%，成交1.41亿元，均位居深市同类产品第一。 国信证券表示，光伏行业出清与整合势在必行，预计2027年将进入稳态发展阶段。从产能成本差异性、企业资金实力等维 度来看，硅料环节比较优势最为明显，整体有望实现产能整合和出清。当前多晶硅报价大幅上调至4.5-5.0万元/吨，部分企 业已实现盈利修复。随着国家政策引导和市场机制优化，行业集中度有望提升，为优质企业提供更大发展空间。 业内机构分析指出，从需求端来看，在2023年4月30日和5月31日的抢装潮结束后，光伏行业正式进入市场经济阶段。目前 电力投资企业在决策过程中趋于谨慎，主要是由于电价和电量的不确定性。行业内普遍对未来装机增长能否维持以往高速 增长存在疑问。从供给端来看，硅料作为行业的"水龙头"，主要看产能，硅料决定了下游产能的实际利用情况。 值得一提的是，光伏ETF(159857)盘中获资金逆市加仓，截至目前，该基金净申购份额已达7300万份，高居同类产品第一！ | | 光伏ETF 159857 | ਐ | | --- | --- | --- | | | 土融入口中 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 点评 10 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2508 收于 41345 元/吨，日内涨幅 5.5%，持仓增仓 1414 手至 98601 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格涨至 41500 元/吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格涨至 41500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 155 元/吨。工业硅震荡 偏弱，主力 2509 收于 8470 元/吨，日内涨幅 3.74%，持仓减仓 17792 手至 38.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8777 元/吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品 #421 价格涨至 8250 元/吨，现货升水转至贴水 290 元/吨。市场消息多晶硅将 进行成本摸排定价，低于最低成本价或面临处罚；原定复产取消，行业或通过 收储、协会制定标杆成本价以及将光伏从制造品作为能源品定位等路径实现产 能逐步出清。目前多晶硅交易逻辑处于政策调控和多方消息的发酵期内，行业 反内卷减产预期加速。盘面波动率提升，整体存在较强支撑，不宜逆势沽空、 可选择观望或轻仓试多。工业硅仓单下降但社库积累压制反弹空间，仍以高抛 思路对待。重点关注双 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究 1.《深海科技趋势下的化工蓝海！》， 2025.7.7 2.《政策持续发力"反内卷"，产能过 剩 行 业 迎 结 构 性 改 善 契 机 》， 2025.7.7 3.《——光引发剂更新②-PCB 需求 复苏+行业集中度提升，光引发剂协 同行情或水到渠成》，2025.7.3 4.《供需关系存在改善预期，光引发 剂景气有望修复》，2025.6.30 5.《SAF 价格持续回升，光引发剂景 气有望修复》，2025.6.30 有机硅更新：陶氏将关闭英国工 厂，有机硅产能有力出清 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 王友舜 建议关注：合盛硅业、新安股份、兴发集团、东岳硅材、三友化 ...

光伏行业当前的供需情况呈现出明显的割裂状态。从需求端来看，电力投资企 业在电价和电量不确定的前提下趋于谨慎，导致下游装机增长存在疑问。虽然 难以得出明确结论，但市场需要时间来验证未来能否维持高增长。而从供给端 来看，产能过剩已成为共识。硅料作为光伏产业链中的关键环节，其产量决定 了下游产能的实际规模。如果硅料供应不足，下游产能将无法充分发挥。此外， 组件价格也受到政策干预，通过锁定成本价格来支撑上游环节。这种双重干预 使得市场表现出冰火两重天的状态。 政策对光伏行业有何影响？ 政策对光伏行业产生了显著影响。首先，通过计划经济手段干预市场，以加速 产能出清并决定哪些主体能够留存。例如，136 号文具有划时代意义，它使得 未来电力投资企业的电价发生变化，并呈下降趋势。同时，通过政策干预，希 望以组件为代表的新规产业链环节能够实现盈利，从而快速完成供给侧改革。 然而，这种政策之间双手互搏的情况导致市场出现割裂，一方面要求度电成本 更低，另一方面要求系统成本更高。这种矛盾使得市场处于前所未有的不确定 状态。 硅料产业专家交流 20250710 摘要 光伏行业正经历政策与市场双重干预，一方面通过计划经济手段加速产 能出 ...

Group 1 - The photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing price increases, with polysilicon manufacturers raising prices to a range of 45,000 to 50,000 yuan per ton, although actual transactions at this level have not yet been observed [1] - There is a strong determination among polysilicon manufacturers to maintain prices, and some downstream companies may accept slight price increases to avoid future risks of further price hikes [1] - The macro-level supply-side clearing guidance is expected to provide a framework for the industry's "anti-involution," but actual implementation may take time [1] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Securities suggests focusing on "capacity clearing" and "new technology iteration" as two main lines for investment [2] - In terms of capacity clearing, attention should be paid to leading companies in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass sectors, particularly those with significant losses and clear capacity clearing expectations [2] - New technology advancements, particularly in BC cells and perovskite cell commercial applications, are also highlighted as areas of interest [2]

工业硅日报 点评 9 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2508 收于 39270 元/吨，日内涨幅 5.03%，持仓增仓 13360 手至 97187 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格涨至 40000 元/吨，最低交割 品 N 型硅料价格涨至 40000 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 730 元/吨。工业硅震 荡偏弱，主力 2509 收于 8140 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.67%，持仓增仓 11907 手至 39.9 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8777 元/吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割 品#421 价格涨至 8250 元/吨，现货升水收至 90 元/吨。市场消息多晶硅将进行 成本摸排定价，低于最低成本价或面临处罚；原定复产取消，行业或通过收 储、协会制定标杆成本价以及将光伏从制造品作为能源品定位等路径实现产能 逐步出清。目前多晶硅交易逻辑处于政策调控和多方消息的发酵期内，行业反 内卷减产预期加速。盘面波动率提升，整体存在较强支撑，不宜逆势沽空、可 选择观望或轻仓试多。工业硅仓单下降但社库积累压制反弹空间，仍以高抛思 路对待。重点关注双硅减产执行力度，以及 PS/SI 比价回升后多 PS 空 SI 机 会。 工业硅& ...

Core Insights - The June CPI turned positive year-on-year at 0.1%, indicating a recovery in consumer prices, while the PPI continued to face downward pressure at -3.6% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [13][24]. - The report highlights a significant increase in sales of excavators and loaders, with year-on-year growth expanding, indicating a recovery in the engineering machinery sector [1][24]. - The semiconductor industry showed a positive trend with global semiconductor sales increasing year-on-year, despite a decline in smartphone shipments [3][32]. Industry Overview Consumer Demand - The CPI improvement was driven by rising prices in fresh fruits and vegetables, with fresh fruit prices increasing by 6.1% year-on-year, and fresh vegetable price declines narrowing significantly [15][24]. - Household appliances saw a positive CPI growth of 1.0%, supported by ongoing consumer promotion policies [16][24]. - The demand for gold jewelry remained strong, with prices for 925 silver and foot gold increasing by 18.0% and 37.8% year-on-year, respectively [16][24]. Resource Products - Coal prices have risen, with significant increases in the prices of Qinhuangdao mixed coal and Shanxi coking coal, indicating a tightening supply [25]. - The report noted a mixed performance in the steel sector, with construction steel transaction volumes increasing while prices for some steel products remained under pressure [25]. Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 2.43% week-on-week, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index declined, indicating a divergence in regional semiconductor performance [26]. - Prices for DDR4 and DDR5 DRAM memory showed a downward trend, with 8GB DDR4 prices decreasing by 1.15% to $5.00 [29][31]. - The smartphone market faced challenges, with May shipments declining by 21.20% year-on-year, reflecting a broader trend of reduced consumer electronics demand [32]. Midstream Manufacturing - The report highlighted an increase in the sales of various types of excavators and loaders, with year-on-year growth expanding, suggesting a recovery in the construction and engineering machinery sectors [1][24]. - The report also noted a decline in prices for certain components in the photovoltaic industry, indicating ongoing price adjustments in the renewable energy sector [25]. Financial and Real Estate - The real estate market showed signs of weakness, with a decline in land transaction premium rates and a decrease in the area of commercial housing sold [25]. - The report indicated a net withdrawal in the money market, with a decrease in A-share turnover rates and daily transaction volumes [25].

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点评 8 日多晶硅受多方消息影响，多晶硅再触及涨停板，主力 2508 收于 38385/吨， 日内涨幅 7%，持仓增仓 5317 手至 11.1 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格涨至 39000 元/吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格涨至 39000 元/吨，现货对主力贴水转 为升水 615 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 8215 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.8%，持仓减仓 2415 手至 38.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8777 元/吨，较 上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格涨至 8250 元/吨，现货升水收至 215 元 /吨。据最新市场消息，多晶硅将进行成本摸排定价，低于最低成本价或面临处 罚，行业反内卷减产预期加速。多晶硅原定复产取消，行业或通过收储、协会 制定标杆成本价以及将光伏从制造品作为能源品定位等多方面路径实现产能逐 步出清。目前多晶硅交易逻辑处于政策调控和多方消息的发酵期内，行业反内 卷减产预期加速。盘面波动率提升，整体存在较强支撑，不宜逆势沽空、可选 择观望或轻仓试多。工业硅短期跟涨多晶硅，仓单下降但社库 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The "anti-involution" signal from policy levels is driving structural adjustments in the power equipment and new energy sectors, indicating a shift from disorderly competition to high-quality development [1] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing accelerated elimination of backward production capacity under policy guidance, with signs of price stabilization in silicon materials and glass [1] Group 2: EVE Energy's Global Expansion - EVE Energy has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for a 30GWh power battery factory in Hungary and a 38GWh energy storage battery project in Malaysia, marking a critical phase in its global layout [1] - The Hungary project targets local demand from European automakers, focusing on the production of 46 series cylindrical batteries, while the Malaysia project aims at the Southeast Asian energy storage market [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Financial Challenges - The shift in industry competition logic is evident as domestic lithium battery capacity faces significant overcapacity pressure, while policies in Europe and the U.S. favor localized supply, creating new opportunities [2] - EVE Energy's "China manufacturing + overseas base" model helps avoid trade barriers and shortens the distance to core customers, but the projected 2027 production timeline for the Hungary project coincides with competitors like CATL and Sunwoda, indicating potential market competition intensity [2] - As of March 2025, EVE Energy has cash reserves of 13.435 billion yuan, but the total investment demand for overseas projects far exceeds current reserves, with a debt-to-asset ratio rising to 62% [2] - The energy storage business's strategy of "exchanging price for volume" has led to a continuous decline in gross margins, with the average price of energy storage batteries expected to drop by 33% year-on-year in 2024 [2] Group 4: Photovoltaic Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" actions are transitioning from initiatives to tangible implementations, with major domestic photovoltaic glass companies collectively announcing a 30% production cut, expected to reduce July output to 45GW, which has led to a rebound in glass prices [3] - The central financial committee has mandated the rectification of low-price disorderly competition, indicating that supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector have entered an execution phase [3] - The silicon material segment is becoming a focal point for capacity consolidation, with recent rumors of "silicon material storage" leading to price recovery, as the average transaction price for multi-crystalline silicon N-type materials has risen to 34,700 yuan/ton, a 0.87% increase [3] - The new photovoltaic manufacturing industry standards raise the threshold for new capacity, further curbing inefficient expansion [3] - The competitive focus is shifting from price to technological differentiation, with advancements in large-size N-type cells and perovskite tandem technologies accelerating, allowing leading firms to achieve cost reductions and efficiency improvements [3] - The primary contradiction in the photovoltaic sector has shifted from insufficient demand to oversupply, with the potential for marginal improvements as policies and corporate actions drive capacity elimination [3]