来源：华泰睿思 我们看好春季行情进一步强化，技术模型显示多数宽基指数得分回升、市场处于修复通道，上证指数已进入看多区间；宏观层面，1月份全天候策略亦押 注增长超预期并增配股票。配置上建议沿两条主线布局：一是成长风格，看好电力设备及新能源行业；二是围绕"十五五"开局之年的内需改善主题，推荐 社服、房地产、家电及饮料行业。 核心观点 本周观点：春季行情预期或进一步强化 2025年最后一个交易周，A股市场呈现出"修复中继"的行情特征——整体震荡，市场交投活跃，日均成交额维持在两万亿之上，为后续行情积蓄能量。我 们认为春季行情有望进一步强化：从技术维度看，A股技术模型最新信号显示，多数宽基指数技术得分回升，市场处于修复通道；其中，上证指数的技术 得分率先回升至模型设定的看多阈值上方；从宏观维度看，1月份全天候策略押注增长超预期象限，增配股票。具体配置上，建议沿两条主线布局：一是 风格上看好成长，模型推荐电力设备及新能源行业。二是紧扣"十五五"开局之年的内需改善主题，模型推荐社服、房地产、家电和饮料行业。 A股技术打分模型：上证指数技术得分率先回升至看多阈值之上 A股技术打分模型旨在充分挖掘技术面信息刻画市场状态，基于 ...

2025 年 12 月 31 日 制造业 PMI 重返扩张区间 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn —固定收益点评报告 12 月制造业 PMI 为 50.1，回升 0.9，4 月份以来首次升至扩 张区间；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2，环比回升 0.7。 投资要点 ▌ 制造业：景气度明显改善 生产指数大幅提升 1.7 至 51.7。新订单指数提升 1.6 至 50.8，其中新出口订单提升 1.4 至 49。企业生产经营活动积 极性明显提升：原材料库存回升 0.5 至 47.8；生产回升带动 采购量大幅回升 0.6 至 51.1，生产经营活动预期提升 2.4 至 55.5。从行业看，农副食品加工、纺织服装服饰、计算机通 信电子设备等行业产需均高于 53；非金属矿物制品、黑色金 属冶炼及压延加工等行业两个指数均低于临界点. 企业盈利边际改善。原材料购进价格下降 0.5，出厂价格指 数增长 0.7。 大型企业经营状况回升至荣枯线之上。大、中、小型企业 12 月 PMI 分别变动 1.5 ...

Group 1: Equipment Export - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a full domestic recovery and moderate export recovery in 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 12% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [52] - Key recommended companies for engineering machinery include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic, which are expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand [3][52] - The oil service equipment sector is poised for significant growth due to historical opportunities in the Middle East and the Belt and Road Initiative, with recommended companies including Jereh and Neway [3] Group 2: Domestic Demand Improvement - The photovoltaic equipment sector is entering a platform integration phase, with significant advancements in perovskite and heterojunction technologies, leading to increased equipment value [3] - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to benefit from ongoing capacity expansions and solid-state battery technology, with recommended companies including Lead Intelligent and Hanke Technology [4] - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a recovery driven by domestic substitution and AI-related demand, with key recommendations including Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei [4] Group 3: High-Growth Sectors - The PCB equipment sector is entering a new expansion cycle driven by AI, with high demand for advanced HDI and SLP boards, with recommended companies including Dazhu CNC and Ding Tai High-Tech [5] - The liquid cooling equipment market is growing rapidly as it becomes a standard for AI server cooling, with key recommendations including Hongsheng and a focus on Invec [5] - The gas turbine and diesel generator sectors are expected to see significant growth due to increased electricity demand driven by AI, with recommended companies including Jereh and Yingliu [5] Group 4: New Technologies and Directions - The mass production of humanoid robots is anticipated, with domestic component manufacturers expected to benefit from cost reductions, with recommended companies including Hengli Hydraulic and New Coordinates [5] - The integration of new technologies in the photovoltaic sector is leading to industry transformation, with a focus on innovative solutions [5] Group 5: Performance Analysis - The semiconductor equipment and PCB equipment sectors are leading in revenue growth, with semiconductor equipment benefiting from advanced process expansions and PCB equipment driven by AI server demand [33] - The profit growth in the PCB equipment and general automation sectors is notable, with improvements in product structure and scale effects [33] - The overall machinery sector is experiencing a mild upward trend, with significant performance disparities among sub-sectors [11][20]

Core Viewpoints - Various style indices experienced adjustments last week, with cyclical and growth styles seeing the most significant declines due to recent rapid increases leading to overvaluation and short-term profit-taking [3][7] - The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased, although there remains considerable disagreement among officials regarding this decision [10] Market Liquidity - Overall market liquidity remains sufficient, with average daily trading volume close to 2 trillion yuan despite recent fluctuations [11] - The margin financing balance has stabilized around 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a steady recovery since the beginning of the year [11] - Long-term capital inflows are evident, with insurance funds' stock investments increasing by 1.19 trillion yuan to 3.62 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025 [11] Market Analysis - The market is undergoing a corrective phase, with major indices experiencing declines, influenced by external factors affecting the technology sector and changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [13][15] - Despite the adjustments, there are signs of potential positive changes, including strong inflows into equity ETFs and a shift in external factors towards a more favorable outlook regarding the Federal Reserve's rate decisions [15] Industry and Theme Allocation - Focus on growth sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing, which have seen some overvaluation corrections while maintaining high overall economic vitality [5][15] - Continuous attention to "anti-involution" policies, particularly in sectors like electric equipment and basic chemicals where fundamentals are improving and valuations are reasonable [5] - Emphasis on domestic demand improvement, with potential opportunities in machinery, home appliances, automobiles, and consumer electronics benefiting from domestic policies [5][15]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China has turned from a decline to an increase year-on-year, with the core CPI rising for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a positive shift in domestic demand [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown its first month-on-month increase this year, signaling improvements in the upstream production sector [1][4] CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly above seasonal levels, and turned from a 0.3% decline to a 0.2% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking a continuous expansion for six months [1][2] - Key contributors to the CPI increase include rising prices in food, services, and industrial consumer goods [2] PPI Analysis - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in October, marking its first rise this year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1% [1][4] - Factors such as improved market supply-demand relationships and price recoveries in key industries contributed to the PPI's positive change [4] Sector-Specific Insights - Service prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with industrial consumer goods prices increasing by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.0% year-on-year [2][3] - The jewelry sector saw significant price increases, with gold and platinum jewelry prices rising by 50.3% and 46.1% year-on-year, respectively [2] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the CPI is likely to continue rising, while the PPI's year-on-year decline is expected to narrow further, with potential for positive growth in the first half of next year [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the textile and apparel sector [20][25]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with the SW textile and apparel index outperforming the SW All A index by 3.3 percentage points during the period from October 13 to October 17, 2025 [3]. - Domestic demand is gradually recovering, while external demand remains volatile, emphasizing the value of globalized production capacity [10][11]. - The report suggests that companies with mature overseas capabilities and the ability to allocate production globally will benefit from the ongoing shifts in the supply chain due to U.S. tariff policies [8][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The SW textile and apparel index decreased by 0.3%, while the SW apparel and home textiles index increased by 0.4%, outperforming the SW All A index by 4.0 percentage points [3]. - Retail sales in the clothing, shoes, and textiles category reached 940 billion yuan from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [10]. Export Data - In September, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to $24.42 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.0%. However, textile yarn, fabric, and products saw an increase of 6.4% [10][44]. - Vietnam's textile exports grew by 9.1% in the same period, indicating a shift in production orders and competitive advantages for overseas production [8][11]. Cotton and Wool Prices - As of October 17, the national cotton price B index was reported at 14,683 yuan per ton, down 0.6% from the previous week [46]. - The Australian wool index showed a significant year-on-year increase of 30.7%, indicating strong demand in the wool market [10]. Company Performance - 361 Degrees reported a 10% year-on-year increase in retail sales for its main brand and children's line, while e-commerce sales grew by approximately 20% [16]. - Xtep International's main brand saw a low single-digit growth in retail sales, with online sales outperforming offline [22]. - The report highlights the strong performance of companies like Bosideng, Anta, and Li Ning, suggesting they are well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming winter season [9][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality domestic brands that are beginning to reverse their challenges, particularly in the sports and outdoor segments [14]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Bosideng, Anta, and 361 Degrees, with a suggestion to monitor Xtep and other emerging brands [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the textile and apparel industry, highlighting the resilience of the sportswear segment and the potential for growth in domestic demand [22][27]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 0.3%, outperforming the SW All A index by 3.3 percentage points from October 13 to October 17 [3]. - Recent industry data indicates a 2.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles, totaling 940 billion yuan from January to August [10]. - The report emphasizes the significance of overseas production capacity and the upcoming third-quarter performance reports from various companies, suggesting that firms like Yanjiang and Nuobang may benefit from industry opportunities [8][10]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The textile export value for September was $12 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while the overall textile and apparel export value for the first nine months was $221.69 billion, down 0.3% year-on-year [11][46]. - The report notes that the U.S. tariff policies are causing a divergence in production locations, favoring companies with established overseas capabilities [8][11]. Apparel Sector - The third-quarter operational data from Xtep and 361 Degrees shows resilience in the sportswear segment, with 361 Degrees reporting a 10% increase in offline sales for its main brand and children's line [9][24]. - The report recommends focusing on Bosideng due to favorable conditions for winter clothing sales, extended sales windows due to the delayed Spring Festival, and a high dividend yield [9][10]. Key Company Performance - 361 Degrees reported a 10% year-on-year increase in offline sales and a 20% increase in e-commerce sales for Q3 2025, demonstrating strong operational resilience [17][24]. - Xtep's main brand saw low single-digit growth in Q3, with online sales outperforming offline sales, particularly in children's and outdoor products [24][25]. Market Trends - The report highlights a mild recovery in domestic demand, with retail sales for clothing and textiles showing positive growth trends [10][39]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences and optimize their supply chains expected to perform better [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report rates the textile and apparel industry as "Overweight" for 2025, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][11]. Core Insights - Domestic demand shows resilience, with retail sales of clothing and textiles reaching 940 billion yuan from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. In contrast, textile exports are performing better than apparel, with textile exports at 94.5 billion USD (up 1.6% year-on-year) while apparel exports decreased by 1.7% [2][3]. - The report highlights the competitive advantage of overseas production capacities, particularly in Vietnam, which has seen textile exports grow by 8.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - The outdoor sports segment is experiencing structural opportunities due to rising consumer demand, with brands like Anta and FILA expected to see significant revenue growth in Q3 2025 [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and price ratio in consumer preferences, particularly in men's and children's clothing, with brands like Hai Lan and Semir showing positive growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - Retail sales of clothing and textiles reached 940 billion yuan from January to August, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [2][3]. - The growth trend is evident with July and August showing increases of 1.8% and 3.1% respectively [2][3]. Export Performance - Textile exports totaled 197.3 billion USD from January to August, with textiles at 94.5 billion USD (up 1.6%) and apparel at 102.8 billion USD (down 1.7%) [2][3]. - Vietnam's textile exports reached 29.7 billion USD (up 8.6%), indicating a shift in supply chain dynamics [2][3]. Sports and Outdoor Segment - The sports apparel segment is expected to see revenue growth, with Anta and FILA projected to achieve mid-single-digit growth and outdoor brands expected to grow by 40% [2][3]. Apparel Sector - Men's clothing brands like Hai Lan are expected to see a revenue increase of 5% in Q3 2025, while children's clothing brands are also showing signs of recovery [2][3]. Home Textiles - Brands like Luolai are focusing on e-commerce and retail operations, with expected revenue growth of 8% and net profit growth of 40% in Q3 2025 [2][3]. Personal Care and Household Cleaning - Companies in this sector are experiencing a quality upgrade and demand expansion, with expected revenue growth of 28% for companies like Wanjian [2][3]. Textile Manufacturing - The report notes that companies with global production capabilities will benefit from the ongoing tariff disputes between China and the US, with firms like Huayi Group expected to see revenue growth of 8% [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in brands such as Anta, Li Ning, and Huayi Group, highlighting their potential for recovery and growth in the current market environment [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in specific segments such as non-woven fabrics and sportswear [2][9]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 0.7%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 1.5 percentage points [4][6]. - Recent industry data indicates a 2.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles, totaling 837.1 billion yuan from January to July [30]. - Exports of textiles and apparel decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, amounting to 197.27 billion USD from January to August, with a notable 5.0% decline in August alone [30][31]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - Focus on investment opportunities in the entire non-woven fabric supply chain, with a significant weekly increase of 26% for Yanjiang Co. The production of non-woven fabrics has been declining since its peak in 2020, but the pandemic has heightened hygiene awareness, maintaining a large market scale [9][12]. - Yanjiang Co. has a global production footprint in China, Egypt, the USA, and India, with major clients including Procter & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark, contributing significantly to its revenue [9][12]. - The report recommends Nobon Co. for its growth potential in personal care and new tobacco products, highlighting its strong market position and technological capabilities [10][12]. Apparel Sector - Jiangnan Buyi reported a stable growth in its latest annual report, with a 4.6% increase in revenue to 5.55 billion yuan and a 6.0% rise in net profit to 900 million yuan for FY25 [12][19]. - The sportswear segment shows resilience, with brands like Anta and Li Ning demonstrating strong performance despite market challenges, with Anta's revenue increasing by 14% year-on-year [13][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery in 2025, suggesting that high-quality domestic brands are poised for a turnaround [10][12]. Market Trends - The report notes a K-shaped recovery in retail, with high-end and cost-effective brands performing better. Innovations in retail formats are accelerating, with plans for significant store expansions in the coming year [13][19]. - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from favorable trade conditions, particularly for manufacturers with strong supply chain capabilities [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, particularly highlighting the growth potential in the non-woven fabric sector and the performance of sportswear brands like Lululemon in China [2][3]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 1.4% from August 29 to September 5, 2025, surpassing the SW All A index by 2.8 percentage points [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in the non-woven fabric industry, with significant growth in revenue and profit for key players like Nobon and Jieya, indicating a positive trend in the sector [12][15]. - Lululemon's second-quarter performance in China showed a 25% increase in revenue, reinforcing the strong alpha in the sports market [15][16]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The non-woven fabric production peaked in 2020 but has seen a recovery post-pandemic, with a narrowing supply-demand gap. By the first half of 2025, revenue and profit for the non-woven fabric industry are expected to grow by 3.1% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [12][13]. - Nobon reported a 33% increase in revenue and a 48% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, exceeding market expectations [12][13]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Nobon for their growth potential in the non-woven fabric sector, particularly in personal care and new tobacco products [12][13]. Apparel Sector - Lululemon's global revenue grew by 7% to $2.5 billion in the second quarter of 2025, with international business revenue increasing by 22% and a notable 25% growth in mainland China [15][16]. - The report highlights the strong performance of high-end and cost-effective brands in the sportswear sector, with companies like Anta and Li Ning showing resilience despite market challenges [16][17]. - The report recommends investment in sportswear brands such as Anta, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees, as well as discount retailers like Hailan Home [16][17]. Market Trends - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China reached 837.1 billion yuan from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [29][32]. - The textile and apparel export value for the first seven months of 2025 was $170.74 billion, with a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, although clothing exports saw a decline of 0.3% [32][36]. - Cotton prices have shown a slight decline, with the domestic cotton price index at 15,297 yuan per ton as of September 5, 2025, down 0.3% [36][37].