农产品日报 | 2025-11-21 苹果主产区入库基本结束，红枣剩余货源价格松动 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯，晚富士地面及入库交易逐步扫尾，库内交易以稳为主。西部出库仍集中在甘肃及陕西旬邑产区， 果农好货调货为主，库内陆续包装发市场，部分客商调货转存。山东地面交易陆续收尾，市场货源有所减少，地 面货源质量有所下滑，果农顺价卖货为主。栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主流参考价 3.0-3.3元/斤，统货价格2.0-3.0元/斤，65#价格1.7元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5元/斤不等。庆 阳出库价格3.6-4.5元/斤不等；陕西产区咸阳旬邑等产区果农货出库价格3.0-3.5元/斤。入库工作陆续进入后期，库 内交易较为稳定，好货价格稳定运行，短期内在外贸渠道等托底下行情预计维持稳定为主。目前受到柑橘等竞品 水果冲击，市场走货一般，后续关注市场对库存货源的消化能力。 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约9496元/吨，较前一日变动+121元/吨，幅度+1.29%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-20 晚富士多产区以质论价，红枣新货接受度一般 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约9375元/吨，较前一日变动-58元/吨，幅度-0.61%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1875，较前一日变动+58；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.15元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1075，较前一日变动+58。 近期市场资讯，晚富士地面及入库交易逐步扫尾，库内交易表现稳定。西部出库仍集中在甘肃及陕西旬邑产区， 果农好货调货为主，库内陆续包装发市场，部分客商调货转存。山东地面交易陆续收尾，市场货源有所减少，地 面货源质量有所下滑，果农顺价卖货为主。栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主流参考价 3.0-3.3元/斤，统货价格2.0-3.0元/斤，65#价格1.7元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5元/斤不等。庆 阳出库价格3.6-4.5元/斤不等；陕西产区咸阳旬邑等产区果农货出库价格3.0-3.5元/斤。入库 ...

Report Overview - Date: October 29, 2025 - Report Name: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Slow destocking in producing areas, focus on downside support [2] - Soybean oil: Rebound in US soybeans, decline in the oil - meal ratio [2] - Soybean meal: Strong US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal rebounds and fluctuates [2] - Soybean: Strong and fluctuating [2] - Corn: Fluctuating weakly [2] - Sugar: Weak overseas, strong domestic [2] - Cotton: Higher cost of new cotton supports cotton futures prices [2] - Eggs: Maintaining adjustment [2] - Live pigs: Spot sentiment declines, waiting for confirmation [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil futures prices (day session: 8,958 yuan/ton, -1.56%; night session: 8,824 yuan/ton, -1.50%); soybean oil futures prices (day session: 8,182 yuan/ton, -0.63%; night session: 8,080 yuan/ton, -1.25%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads of related products are also provided [5]. - **News**: Indonesia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% to about 5,600 million tons, and exports are expected to be 3,000 - 3,100 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both -1 [10]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2601 futures price (day session: 4,115 yuan/ton, +0.66%; night session: 4,129 yuan/ton, +0.90%); DCE soybean meal 2601 futures price (day session: 2,975 yuan/ton, +1.40%; night session: 2,991 yuan/ton, +0.84%). Spot prices and industry data such as trading volume and inventory are also provided [11]. - **News**: On October 28, CBOT soybean futures hit a 15 - month high due to expectations of a Sino - US trade agreement [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0; soybean trend intensity is +1 [13]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: Corn futures prices (C2511: day session 2,109 yuan/ton, +0.38%; night session 2,105 yuan/ton, -0.19%; C2601: day session 2,123 yuan/ton, +0.28%; night session 2,123 yuan/ton, 0.00%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [15]. - **News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou prices also decreased by 10 yuan/ton [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: Raw sugar price is 14.37 cents/pound, -0.09; mainstream spot price is 5,730 yuan/ton, 0; futures main contract price is 5,483 yuan/ton, +38. Spreads and basis are also provided [18]. - **News**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, and exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons). The CAOC expects China's 25/26 sugar production to be 11.2 million tons, consumption to be 15.9 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 futures price (day session: 13,565 yuan/ton, 0.00%; night session: 13,575 yuan/ton, 0.07%); CY2601 futures price (day session: 19,765 yuan/ton, -0.03%; night session: 19,785 yuan/ton, 0.10%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [21]. - **News**: Cotton spot trading is mostly sluggish, with some low - basis transactions being better. ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to optimistic expectations of international economic and trade relations [22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg futures prices (egg 2511: 2,866 yuan/500 kg, -1.85%; egg 2601: 3,304 yuan/500 kg, -0.12%). Spreads, spot prices, and related industry data are also provided [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Live pig spot prices (Henan: 12,630 yuan/ton; Sichuan: 12,300 yuan/ton; Guangdong: 12,360 yuan/ton). Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [30]. - **Market Information**: Yuexiu and Yangxiang added delivery warehouses. The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Live pig trend intensity is 0 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Peanut spot prices (Liaoning 308 general: 8,200 yuan/ton; Henan Baisha general: 6,900 yuan/ton, -100; Xingcheng Xiaoriben: 7,900 yuan/ton, +40; Sudan refined rice: 8,650 yuan/ton, 0). Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [33]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, peanut prices are chaotic, and supply is not fully released. In Liaoning, farmers are reluctant to sell, and trading is stalemate. In Xingcheng, the market is active [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the mixed performance of corn, wheat, and soybean prices in the Chicago futures market, with corn and wheat experiencing declines while soybean prices saw a slight increase [1][2] - On October 13, the most active December corn contract closed at $4.11 per bushel, down 2.25 cents (0.54%) from the previous trading day, while the December wheat contract fell to $4.97 per bushel, down 1.75 cents (0.35%). In contrast, the November soybean contract rose by 1 cent (0.1%) to $10.08 per bushel [1] - The impressive corn yield in the northern and western Midwest of the U.S. is noted, with December corn futures attempting to hold the support level of $4.105 per bushel, and the next downside target set at $4.05 [1] Group 2 - China continues to seek Brazilian soybeans, reportedly purchasing 2-4 cargo ships of Brazilian soybeans, with estimates indicating that the sowing area in Brazil has reached 14-15% of the planned area [1] - The forecast for U.S. soybean planting area is expected to increase to 87-88 million acres by 2026 due to rising fertilizer costs and crop rotation willingness, while corn planting area may decrease to 92-93 million acres, and wheat planting area is projected to drop by 1-2 million acres to 45-46 million acres [1] - The global grain market is currently characterized by three major themes: record global wheat export supply, significant U.S. corn production with insufficient Midwest inventory, and the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on agricultural markets [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Analyst: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 2.27%. The Fed's 25bp rate cut and relatively stable Sino-US economic and trade negotiations create a neutral and warm macro - environment. With the support of the consumer peak season and pre - holiday restocking, the commodity market may run stably in the short term. Precious metals are likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall, while the short - term trend of other sectors varies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector up 2.27%, energy and chemicals up 1.42%, and precious metals, agricultural products, and non - ferrous metals down 0.8%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively. The top - rising varieties were coking coal, coke, and glass, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, soybean meal, and tin. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and only the black and agricultural product sectors had net capital inflows [2][7]. - **Market Data Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the performance of different sectors and varieties, including the rise and fall of the Nanhua Index, the weekly contribution rate of each sector of the China Securities Commodity Index, the fluctuation of each variety's main contract, the performance of commodity - related sector indexes, the precipitation funds of each commodity sector, the weekly precipitation fund changes of each variety, the average trading - to - holding ratio of each variety, macro - high - frequency data, relevant ratios, and black - industry chain ratios [8][10][12] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the sector initially corrected due to profit - taking but rebounded on the dovish remarks of the new Fed governor. It is likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled, but the restart of rate cuts still provides short - term support. With the pre - holiday restocking and improving macro - sentiment, the sector may run stably in the short term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills have pre - holiday restocking needs, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The iron ore port inventory decreased, and the coking coal's capacity expansion is less likely. The sector fluctuates with policy expectations [3]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices rose and then fell last week. The Fed's 25bp rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the supply - demand contradiction after the peak oil - consumption season will gradually intensify. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the premium space is limited. Trump's statement to lower oil prices also affects market sentiment. Oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester, the weaving load decreased slightly, and filament inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream has pre - holiday stocking expectations, but cost support is weak. Building materials such as glass and PVC still face high - supply and low - demand situations, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The actual export demand for US soybeans was poor, and the Sino - US call did not mention agricultural product trade. The overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September was inconsistent. The short - term domestic supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and the sector may run in a volatile manner [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - The report provides information on various commodity ETFs, including net value, weekly return, scale, share change, trading volume, trading volume change, and underlying assets. Gold - related ETFs have different performance in terms of return and scale change, and other commodity ETFs such as energy - chemical and agricultural - product - related ones also show different trends [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The DCE soybean meal and live hog futures showed downward trends on August 14, while the CBOT US soybean futures rose. The market is influenced by factors such as weather in the US Midwest, Brazilian soybean exports, and domestic supply - demand dynamics [1][2]. - The price of CBOT soybean futures is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall due to factors like the overall downward adjustment of the US soybean harvest outlook and the undetermined weather situation. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is expected to reach new highs from September to October [15][16]. - The live hog market currently has an increase in supply from the breeding side and weak demand. However, the near - term contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [19]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous trading day. The prices of coastal mainstream oil mills dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2601 contract closed at 14130 yuan/ton, down 1.15%. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 13.72 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.94% to 1042 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the western part has active rainfall, and the eastern part is relatively dry. The temperature from last Thursday to this Monday was close to or higher than normal. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows sporadic showers from Tuesday to Saturday, with the temperature close to or higher than normal. Most areas have good soil moisture as corn and soybeans enter the reproductive stage [3][4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From August 10 to 16, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 2.34 million tons, soybean meal exports 639,100 tons, and corn exports 2.1834 million tons [5]. - On August 13, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal shrank to 75,000 tons, with the average trading price rising to 3104.36 yuan/ton, reaching a three - month high [5]. - Affected by the improvement of the fundamentals in the US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report and the increasing weather risk premium, the CBOT soybean futures rose. On August 14, the import cost of US soybeans reached 4672 yuan, Brazilian soybeans 4075 yuan, and Argentine soybeans 3881 yuan, reaching new highs [5]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 50.2 million tons, up 2% from the previous estimate [6]. - As of August 7, the expected net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 market year are between 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year are 400,000 - 900,000 tons. The expected net sales of US soybean meal in the 2024/25 market year are between 50,000 - 250,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year are 100,000 - 250,000 tons [6]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.8 million tons [6]. - On August 14, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.17 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.19 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.1% [7]. - In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [7]. - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December this year [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report presents charts related to the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live hogs, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [10][11][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures are expected to be bullish. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is in a strong position in the short - term, with the upper pressure range at 3250 - 3300 and the lower support at 3120. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to reach new highs from September to October. The spot price of soybean meal has increased, but the downstream demand is weak. The basis in the fourth quarter is not expected to decline significantly [16][17]. - **Live Hogs**: The supply from the breeding side has increased, and the demand is currently weak. The near - term contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [19].

Group 1: Report's Investment Ratings for the Industry - Both the soybean meal and corn sectors are rated as cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the price showed a weak and volatile trend yesterday. With favorable weather in the main U.S. soybean - growing regions, soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. Macro - factors are significantly disturbing, and the trade relationship between China and the U.S. is expected to improve. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal remains loose with high soybean arrivals and rising inventories [1][3] - For corn, the price had a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday. On the domestic front, the supply side has stabilized after the digestion of negative factors, and the demand side has a decline in the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises and sufficient inventories in feed enterprises. Policy impacts are weakening, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to the approaching new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [4][6] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2983 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - U.S. Data: As of July 27, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, the flowering rate was 76%, and the pod - setting rate was 41%. As of July 24, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 40.97 million tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season was 4720.33 million tons, a 10.4% year - on - year increase, reaching 93% of the annual export target [2] Market Analysis - The soybean meal futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The good weather in the U.S. soybean - growing regions is conducive to soybean growth. Macro - factors are disturbing, and attention should be paid to policy changes. Domestically, the supply is loose with high soybean arrivals and rising inventories [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.73%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] - U.S. and Brazil Data: As of July 24, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1.52 million tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season was 60.34 million tons, a 29.3% year - on - year increase, reaching 86.4% of the USDA forecast target. In Brazil, the second - season corn harvest progress as of July 24 was 68%, and the 2024/25 corn production is expected to be 136.3 million tons [4][5] Market Analysis - The corn futures price had a narrow - range fluctuation. On the supply side, the market sentiment has stabilized after the digestion of negative factors. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventories. Policy impacts are weakening, but there are still market risks [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the textile industry is in the off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. Cotton is in the de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some Xinjiang areas increases the risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend, but the slow de - stocking process drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger with oscillations. One should also be vigilant about macro - factor risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for red dates is 10,425 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10; the main contract's position volume is 136,908 lots, an increase of 1,239; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,018 lots, a decrease of 239; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,893 lots, an increase of 209; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,745 lots, a decrease of 209 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 6 yuan/jin, in Henan is 4.3 yuan/jin; the wholesale price of special - grade red dates in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg, in Hebei is 9.73 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg), in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg); the first - grade red dates price in Guangdong is 9.6 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg). The unified prices of red dates in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and the price of Aksu is unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 318.7 million tons, and the planting area is 199.3 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1 million hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons; the monthly export volume of red dates is 2,229,227 kg, a decrease of 132,571 kg; the cumulative export volume is 15,350,567 kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 1.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan/kg; the cumulative sales volume of red dates of好想你is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year production of red dates of好想youis - 34.59% [2] 3.6 Industry News - On July 9th, in the Aksu area, it rained with a temperature between 18 - 28°C, which is suitable for fruit setting. Jujube farmers are actively managing their orchards, and the jujube trees are gradually entering the physiological fruit - dropping stage. One should pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and weather changes. Internationally, as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton is 14% (up from 9% last week, compared to 18% last year and a five - year average of 15%), the budding rate is 48% (up from 40% last week, compared to 51% last year and a five - year average of 49%), and the good - to - excellent rate is 52% (up from 51% last week, compared to 45% last year). Recent weather is conducive to crop growth, and combined with a stronger US dollar and a weaker grain market, it has pushed down the price of US cotton. The US is imposing tariffs on imported products from countries such as Japan and South Korea, and Trump has threatened to impose a new 10% tariff on BRICS countries [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The short - term trends of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil are rebounds; cotton is under pressure during the rebound; jujube is at risk of a decline; and live pigs are in a wide - range oscillation [1]. - For soybean meal, the overall fundamentals remain bearish, and caution is needed when chasing long positions. For rapeseed meal, due to the strong price of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, there are opportunities to go long at low prices. For palm oil, attention should be paid to the risk fluctuations of crude oil in the future, and caution is needed when chasing long positions above 8700 yuan. For cotton, although there is support at the bottom, the upward momentum is weak. For jujube, be vigilant against the risk of the market rising first and then falling. For live pigs, consider short - selling on rebounds or reverse calendar spreads [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: Internationally, South American soybean production is basically determined, and the planting of US soybeans has started with normal rainfall in June. Domestically, ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are accumulating, and soybean meal supply is also entering a stock - building period. Feed enterprise inventories are gradually returning to the normal range, and spot trading has been average recently [3]. - **Data**: As of June 13, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 742.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.50 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 599.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.41 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.49 million tons [3]. - **Trading Advice**: The previous day's soybean meal rebounded, but approaching the previous high resistance, it is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions and to wait and see. Before the release of the US soybean acreage report, it is expected to run above the 20 - day moving average [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: Domestically, rapeseed meal inventories are much higher than in the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed has been harvested and listed in May. However, from June to August, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and the long - term import volume is expected to be low. The price of old - crop Canadian rapeseed is strong [7]. - **Data**: As of June 13, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 17.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.55 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 million tons; the unexecuted contracts were 5.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.45 million tons [7]. - **Trading Advice**: The short - term adjustment space of the rapeseed meal main contract is limited, and opportunities to go long at low prices can be considered. Pay attention to the subsequent Sino - Canadian trade situation for far - month contracts [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the inventory - building cycle of Southeast Asian palm oil has begun, but factors such as India's increased imports and the promotion of Malaysia's B20 policy have affected market sentiment. Domestically, the commercial inventory of palm oil is low, and imports have improved compared to the previous period [1]. - **Data**: As of the 24th week of 2025 (June 13), the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 40.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.70 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons. The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026. In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 599,000 tons month - on - month, and China's palm oil imports were 180,000 tons [8]. - **Trading Advice**: The palm oil price rebounded, but considering the inventory - building cycle, caution is needed when chasing long positions above 8700 yuan, and attention should be paid to position control [1][9]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the US cotton planting progress is slow, and the drought situation has improved. Domestically, new cotton is growing well, the import of cotton in May decreased, and the destocking of domestic cotton is fast. However, downstream orders have weakened [11][12]. - **Data**: As of June 16, the US cotton planting progress was 85%. In May 2025, the domestic import of cotton resources was about 124,662 tons. The weekly order volume of textile enterprises decreased by 0.51 days to 9.91 days [11][12]. - **Trading Advice**: The Zhengzhou cotton's upward momentum is weak, but there is support at the bottom, and it is expected to operate in a short - term range [1][13]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: In the production areas, jujube trees are growing well, but high temperatures may affect flowering. The inventory is high, and the demand is in the off - season [15]. - **Data**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,680 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13 tons, higher than the same period by 4,531 tons [15]. - **Trading Advice**: Be vigilant against the risk of the jujube market rising first and then falling, and continuously pay attention to the actual situation in the production areas [1][15]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the planned slaughter in June has decreased slightly, but there may still be an increase in the slaughter plan. In the medium - term, there will be pressure on supply from October to November. In the long - term, the far - month production capacity has not shown an inflection point. The demand for slaughter has decreased, and the second - fattening replenishment has increased [17]. - **Data**: In May 2025, the number of newly - born piglets in steel - union designated enterprises increased by 64,600 to 543,390. The national sample enterprises' pig inventory in May was 37.0841 million, and the slaughter volume was 11.0882 million heads [16][17]. - **Trading Advice**: It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds or conduct reverse calendar spreads for the 09 and 11 contracts, focusing on the subsequent adjustment of production capacity [1][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - DCE soybean meal's main 2509 contract rose 0.49% to 3077 yuan/ton, while coastal oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. DCE live hog's main 2509 contract dropped 0.54% to 13760 yuan/ton, and the national average ex - farm price of ternary live hogs was 14.16 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg. Overnight, CBOT US soybeans' main contract fell 0.12% to 1073 cents/bushel [2]. - For soybean meal, the US soybean market is stable, with import costs rising slightly. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is good, with strong basis trading. It is expected to remain stable with an upward bias. For live hogs, the market has an oversupply situation, and the rebound space of hog prices is limited, with short - term contracts likely to oscillate at a low level [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - DCE soybean meal's main 2509 contract closed at 3077 yuan/ton, up 0.49% or 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Coastal oil mills' quotes decreased 10 - 50 yuan/ton, except for Tianjin which rose 20 yuan/ton to 2980 yuan/ton. DCE live hog's main 2509 contract closed at 13760 yuan/ton, down 0.54% or 75 yuan/ton. The national average ex - farm price of ternary live hogs was 14.16 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg. Overnight, CBOT US soybeans' main contract fell 0.12% to 1073 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - From June 13th, in the US Midwest agricultural main producing areas, there will be scattered to widespread scattered showers in the western region before Sunday. In the southern region, the temperature will be near to above normal before Saturday and above normal from Sunday to next Monday. In the eastern region, there will be scattered showers before Sunday and scattered to widespread scattered showers next Monday. The rainfall in the southern part of the US Midwest has decreased since the middle of this week, and more rainfall may last until Friday and then move eastward. Overall, the weather pattern next week is also active, which is beneficial for soil moisture in the western region but not good for farmers' field operations [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On June 18th, the CNF quotes of imported Brazilian soybeans for August - September shipments were 465 and 473 US dollars/ton, with the arrival and duty - paid costs in South China being 3810 and 3860 yuan/ton respectively, up 50 - 100 yuan/ton from last week. The import cost of US soybeans on June 18th was 4629 yuan, up 5 yuan; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3830 yuan, up 4 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3682 yuan, down 5 yuan. The total bean meal sales of major domestic oil mills on June 18th were 93.47 million tons, up 71.48 million tons from the previous day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate was 69.15%, up 2.07% [5]. - Analysts expect the US soybean production in the 2025 - 2026 season to be 118 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast. The expected US soybean export net sales for the 2024/25 market year as of June 12th were between 0 - 40 million tons, and for the 2025/26 market year were 0 - 20 million tons. Rainfall in the prairie region will help relieve drought, and about 40% of the area is experiencing drought. Canada will release a sowing area report on June 27th, and the rapeseed sowing area in March was 21.6 million acres, down 1.7% from the 2024/25 season [6]. - In May 2025, China's cumulative feed production was 27.621 million tons, up 3.68% month - on - month and 7.49% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past four years. As of June 17th, the operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 28.23%, up 0.81% from last week, and the frozen meat storage capacity rate was 17.34%, up 0.02% from last week. The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of June 14th was 245,000, in line with market expectations. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% and is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025 and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027 [6][7]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the prices of wind soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, the prices of wind rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, the prices of wind live hogs in Henan and DCE live hog futures, live hog basis, China's soybean inventory, and China's soybean meal inventory [10][12][14][15]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil has been digested, and the US soybean market is stable. The import cost is rising slightly. The sowing of US soybeans is almost finished, but the excellent - good rate is lower than expected. Domestically, the soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate is high, and the soybean meal inventory is rising. With the strengthening of US soybeans, the import cost increases, and the downstream demand is good, with active basis trading. The future focus will be on the US soybean planting area and weather conditions, and it is expected to remain stable with an upward bias [17]. - For live hogs, on the supply side, farmers are accelerating the slaughter of large hogs, but due to heavy rainfall in the south and some second - fattening farmers entering the market, the supply has temporarily shrunk, supporting the hog price. On the demand side, summer heat reduces pork consumption. The overall market still has an oversupply situation, and the rebound space of hog prices is limited. The short - term contracts may oscillate at a low level [17].