【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡延续 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周五持仓量减仓 17466 手，成交量 523900 手，相比上一交易日放量，日内最低价 3285 元，最高价 3325 元，日内 减仓下跌，日均线来看短期跌破 5 日均线，30 日均线，收于 3288 元/吨，下跌 10 元，跌幅 0.30%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3290 元/吨。相比上一交易日维 稳。 3，基差：期现基差 2 元。 二、基本面数据 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 29 日热卷周产量环比上升 3.8 万吨至 309.21 万吨。 本周产量处于近几年中等偏上水平。反映钢厂在春节前仍然维持高生产节奏， 生产积极性提升。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 29 日周度表观消费量环比上升 1.45 万吨至 311.41 万 吨，表需本周微增，且在历年同期中属于较好水平。 ■库存端：截止 1 月 22 日总库存周环比下降 2.22 万吨至 355.58 万吨（社 会库存周环比下降 2.81 万吨，钢厂库存增 0.61 万吨），总库存环比下降，库 存压力边际缓 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 ■库存端：截止 1 月 22 日总库存周环比下降 2.22 万吨至 355.58 万吨（社 会库存周环比下降 2.81 万吨，钢厂库存增 0.61 万吨），总库存环比下降，库 存压力边际缓解，整体库存处于去库通道。 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 29 日热卷周产量环比上升 3.8 万吨至 309.21 万吨。 本周产量处于近几年中等偏上水平。反映钢厂在春节前仍然维持高生产节奏， 生产积极性提升。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 29 日周度表观消费量环比上升 1.45 万吨至 311.41 万 吨，表需本周微增，且在历年同期中属于较好水平。 热卷日报：增仓上行 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周四持仓量增仓 29468 手，成交量 434547 手，相比上一交易日放量，日内最低价 3277 元，最高价 3313 元，日内 增仓上涨，日均线来看短期上坡 5 日均线，30 日均线，收于 3308 元/吨，上涨 26 元，涨幅 0.79%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3280 元/吨。相比上一交易日上涨 10 元。 3，基差： ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 一、市场行情回顾 ■库存端：截止 1 月 22 日总库存周环比下降 4.55 万吨至 357.78 万吨（社 会库存周环比下降 4.66 万吨，钢厂库存增 0.11 万吨），年同比增加 21.27 万 吨（社库年同比增 24.18 万吨，厂库年同比下降 2.91 万吨），总库存环比下 降，库存压力边际缓解，同比上升反应今年库存累积速度略快于去年，整体风 险可控。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周三持仓量增仓 9222 手，成交量 283776 手，相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3275 元，最高价 3290 元，日内 震荡偏弱运行，日均线来看短期跌破 5 日均线，30 日均线附近，收于 3280 元/ 吨，下跌 13 元，跌幅 0.39%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3280 元/吨。相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期现基差 0 元，基本平水。 二、基本面数据 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 22 日热卷周产量环 ...

一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周二持仓量减仓 6369 手，成交量 288700 手，相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3283 元，最高价 3306 元，日内 震荡偏弱运行，日均线来看短期跌破 5 日均线，但 30 日均线附近有支撑，收于 3289 元/吨，下跌 2 元，跌幅 0.60%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3290 元/吨。相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期现基差 1 元，基本平水。 二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 22 日热卷周产量环比下降 2.95 万吨至 305.41 万吨。 年同比下降 17.23 万吨，产量环比回落，同比大幅下降，反映钢厂产能释放有 所收敛，可能受检修安排，利润波动等因素影响，支撑价格。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 22 日周度表观消费量环比下降 4.2 万吨至 309.96 万 吨，年同比上升 7.39 万吨，需求环比略有回落，但同比保持增长，节前备货对 需求形成支撑，整体需求韧性较强。 ■库存端：截止 1 月 22 日总库存周环比下 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting, and the demand is resilient. The overall supply and demand are in a tight balance. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for the current demand. The social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on the factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has improved marginally, but the year-on-year inventory is still relatively high. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. In general, the tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support the price. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of the post-holiday demand recovery. Technically, in the short term, attention should be paid to the support near the 5-day and 30-day moving averages, and a bullish view should be maintained [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Monday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 27,500 lots, and the trading volume was 391,114 lots, which was higher than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,298 yuan, the high was 3,320 yuan, and it fluctuated within the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it stood above the 5-day and 30-day moving averages. If it holds steady, the probability of continued strengthening in the short and medium term is relatively high. It closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.12% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The spot-futures basis was -2 yuan, and the futures were slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decreased month-on-month and significantly year-on-year, reflecting that the capacity release of steel mills has converged, which may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, supporting the price [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. The demand decreased slightly month-on-month but maintained growth year-on-year. Pre-holiday stockpiling supported the demand, and the overall demand was relatively resilient [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons week-on-week to 3.5778 million tons (the social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). The year-on-year increase was 212,700 tons (the social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and the factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year-on-year increase reflected that the inventory accumulation speed this year was slightly faster than last year, and the overall risk was controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply output, expectation of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 23 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周五持仓量增仓 33977 手，成交量 304877 手，相比上一交易日放量，日内最低价 3283 元，最高价 3310 元，日内 震荡偏强运行，日均线来看站上 5 日均线和 30 日均线，站稳则短中期延续走强 概率偏大，收于 3305 元/吨，上涨 17 元，涨幅 0.52%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3290 元/吨。相比上一交易日上涨 10 元。 3，基差：期现基差-15 元，期货小幅升水现货。 二、基本面数据 三、市场驱动因素分析 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 22 日热卷周产量环比下降 2.95 万吨至 305.41 万吨。 年同比下降 17.23 万吨，产量环比回落，同比大幅下降，反映钢厂产能释放有 所收敛，可能受检修安排，利润波动等因素影响，支撑价格。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 22 日周度表观消费量环比下降 4.2 万吨至 309.96 万 吨，年同比上升 7.39 万吨，需求环比略有回落，但同比保持增长，节前备货对 需求形成支撑，整体需求韧性较 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for hot - rolled coils is "Oscillating with an upward bias", maintaining a bullish view [6] Core Viewpoints - Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting, and the demand is resilient, resulting in an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The social inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the factory inventory pressure is controllable. Although the inventory is still high year - on - year, the overall inventory risk has marginally improved. The tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Technically, the price has stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term [6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **期货价格**: On Friday, the持仓 volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 33,977 lots, and the trading volume was 304,877 lots, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,283 yuan, and the high was 3,310 yuan, with an oscillating upward trend. It closed at 3,305 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan or 0.52%. It has stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and if it holds, the probability of short - and medium - term strengthening is relatively high [1] - **现货价格**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **基差**: The basis between futures and spot was - 15 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month - on - month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year - on - year. The output decline may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month - on - month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year - on - year. Although the demand has slightly declined month - on - month, it has maintained growth year - on - year. Pre - holiday stockpiling supports demand, and the overall demand is resilient [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month - on - month to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month - on - month, and factory inventory increased by 1,100 tons). It increased by 212,700 tons year - on - year (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure has marginally eased. The year - on - year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation speed this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on steel export license management will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task in 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are also being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. The weekly-on-week apparent demand has rebounded, and the year-on-year demand remains strong. The demand during the off-season shows strong resilience. The warming up of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, posing some pressure, but the recent continuous destocking may relieve the pressure if it persists. The daily line of hot-rolled coil futures is currently near the support of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can stabilize at this level and break through the pressure near the 10-day moving average. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach, but note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Wednesday, the trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased compared to the previous trading day. The price fluctuated and stabilized within the day, with a daily low of 3271 yuan and a high of 3290 yuan. It closed at 3286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.06%. The short-term moving average retraced to the support near the 30-day moving average and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure near the 10-day moving average [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -16 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 billion tons compared to the previous week. The year-on-year output decreased by 1.183 million tons. The production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance [4]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 billion tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand rebounded significantly this week, with a year-on-year increase of 0.51 million tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating strong demand resilience [4]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 billion tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons. The total inventory continued to decline, indicating strong demand for hot-rolled coils. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, but if the destocking continues, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - **Policy**: New regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced, which will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply output, expected start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. Anti-involution policies still hold potential, providing strong downside support. The weekly apparent demand has rebounded, remaining strong year-on-year, indicating robust demand resilience during the off-season. The warming sentiment of winter storage may stimulate a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high, it has been continuously decreasing recently, and if this trend continues, the pressure will ease. The hot-rolled coil futures are currently trading strongly above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, it should be noted that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. 3. Summary of Each Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume and open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased on Friday. The intraday price fluctuated within a narrow range, with the lowest price at 3308 yuan and the highest at 3344 yuan. It closed at 3315 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.33% from the previous trading day. The short-term moving average retraced to the support level around the 10-day moving average and then rebounded, and it is trading strongly above the medium-term 20-day moving average [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between the futures and spot prices is -5 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of January 15, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 billion tons compared with the previous week, but decreased by 11.83 million tons year-on-year. The production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production by steel mills after annual maintenance [4]. - Demand side: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 billion tons, showing a significant rebound this week and an increase of 0.51 million tons year-on-year. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that the demand still has resilience [4]. - Inventory side: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 billion tons on a weekly basis (the social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons). The total inventory continued to decline, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, but if the de-stocking trend continues, the downward pressure on prices will be reduced [4]. - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. The government also aims to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6]. - Bearish factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market opened higher and then oscillated downward. It is recommended to focus on the Venezuelan situation and adopt a reverse spread strategy. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventories available before March [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 25.4% week - on - week, 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The shipments decreased by 20.05% to 210,300 tons week - on - week, at a relatively low - to - neutral level. The refinery inventory rate increased week - on - week, still near the lowest level in recent years. The US military action in Venezuela may affect domestic asphalt production and cost. This week, the asphalt operating rate remains low [1]. - Demand - Last week, most of the downstream operating rates of asphalt declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 17% week - on - week due to capital and weather constraints. The rigid demand in the north will further slow down, while the winter storage demand is continuously released. The overall demand in the south is average, and low - price goods are sold well [1]. - Price - The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis is at a relatively low - to - neutral level [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2603 fell 0.06% to 3,167 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,155 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,210 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 3,812 to 199,515 lots [2]. - Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 67 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply - Refineries such as Zhongyou Gaofu and Jinling Petrochemical stopped asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 25.4% week - on - week, 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative. From January to November 2025, the fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and that in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [5]. - Inventory - As of the week of January 9, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.4% compared with the week of January 2, near the lowest level in recent years [5].