南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——产地降雨分布不均，部分地区或有偏干旱困扰 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月15日 本周重要气象提示 1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，10月开始南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，厄尔尼 诺指数截至11月底为-0.55，拉尼娜现象已经形成，预计将持续到2026年初，但其强度偏弱，目前对棕榈油产 地影响有限。 2、本周天气来看，马来群岛降雨依旧分部不均匀，同时各产区降雨量都有所下降。降雨依然集中东马地区及 印尼的西部大部分地区和卡里曼丹岛中部，卡里曼丹岛土壤湿度整体有所提升。印尼的南苏门答腊岛和北苏 门答腊岛、廖内地区土壤湿度落后于历年同期；马来半岛降雨量整体落后于近20年均值水平，土壤湿度也较 为落后；东马虽然降雨也不多，但土壤湿度保持较好，后续需要留意马来半岛的干旱问题。 3、短期灾害性天气扰动不足，但需关注土壤湿度落后地区，如持续不能好转，或影响明年产量。 厄尔尼诺指数 厄尔尼诺指数（NOAA） 15/12 17/12 19/1 ...

*免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 海南橡胶：中国天然橡胶产业龙头。 冠农股份：主营皮棉、棉籽，棉花加工能力超15万吨。 12月4日，世界气象组织发布最新预报称，未来三个月出现弱拉尼娜现象的概率为55%。截至11月中 旬，海洋和大气指标已达到拉尼娜状态的临界阈值。尽管拉尼娜现象通常会带来短暂的降温影响，但许 多地区仍将继续出现偏暖天气。拉尼娜现象是指赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现 象。 拉尼娜现象与厄尔尼诺现象相反，是太平洋赤道海域水温异常降低现象，与干旱、洪水等自然灾害有关 联。 中信期货指出，拉尼娜可能导致南美洲中南部和美国中北部大豆产量减产；而巴西、美国、阿根廷为全 球大豆主产国，三国合计贡献全球80%以上的大豆产量。另外，其还表示，中国和东南亚传统割胶期大 概率遭遇拉尼娜，降水较多或影响割胶进度。 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a de - stocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses de - stocking, and the de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrows [2]. - Overseas standard rubber arrivals at Qingdao continue to decline, leading to a slight de - stocking in the bonded warehouse; the increase in mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing meets expectations, but tire factories mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a narrowing of the overall de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse [2]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly. Semi - steel tire enterprises' production schedules are mostly stable, and it is expected that their production enthusiasm will remain high due to concentrated snow - tire orders and a large number of specifications; the shipment of all - steel tire enterprises is stable, and most enterprises' production schedules are expected to remain stable, with the overall capacity utilization rate expected to fluctuate slightly [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15300 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12320 - 12800 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15400 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12525 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2875 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 1467 to 144722 hands, and the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 5380 to 34659 hands [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 5480 to - 28553, and the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber decreased by 1872 to - 10171 [2]. - The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 1220 tons to 121670 tons, and the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts increased by 604 tons to 44857 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 15300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1890 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1890 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15150 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The Shanghai rubber basis is - 550 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 475 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13389 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 864 yuan/ton, up 369 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 59.82 Thai baht/kg, down 0.24 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.6 Thai baht/kg, down 0.55 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) is 53.25 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber is 12.26 million tons, up 0.95 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 31.75 million tons, up 4.91 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 20.92%, up 1.43 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 18.3%, up 0.82 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 21.85%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 21.84%, up 0.39 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 24th to October 30th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly in Vietnam and southern Thailand, which has an enhanced impact on tapping; the red areas south of the equator are mainly in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the impact on tapping is slightly weakened [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon [2]. - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons or 1.20% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decrease of 1.18% [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The raw material supply in Yunnan is stable, and the raw material purchase price remains firm; in Hainan, the tapping is affected by rainfall, and the output of fresh glue is scarce, with limited raw material purchase volume [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.12%, down 0.72 percentage points month - on - month and 7.61 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.34%, down 0.53 percentage points month - on - month and up 6.15 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, due to large temperature differences between day and night, the dry rubber content drops rapidly, and raw material prices are rising. In Hainan, continuous rainfall restricts tapping operations, and raw material production is slow. Some processing plants are eager to purchase raw materials at higher prices [2]. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. The reduction in the general trade warehouse has narrowed. Overseas standard rubber arrivals continue to decline, and the bonded warehouse in Qingdao shows a slight inventory reduction. The increase in the arrival and storage of mixed rubber is in line with expectations, but tire factories' purchases are mostly on a wait - and - see basis [2]. - Last week, the production schedules of domestic tire enterprises mostly returned to normal levels, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Semi - steel tire enterprises are expected to maintain high production enthusiasm, and all - steel tire enterprises' production schedules are expected to remain stable. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15300 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12500 - 12800 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15625 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12720 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2905 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 146189 lots, up 2108 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 40039 lots, down 6433 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 23073 lots, up 3872 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8299 lots, up 2453 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 122890 tons, up 320 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 44253 tons, down 201 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1880 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1880 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene styrene 1502 is 11400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 610 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13219 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 689 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.06 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 56.15 Thai baht/kg, up 1.26 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 53.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 12.26 million tons, up 0.95 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 31.75 million tons, up 4.91 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.26 days, up 0.09 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 0.11 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.48%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.48%, down 0.61 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.85%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.84%, up 0.39 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of November 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in Vietnam and southern Thailand affected tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia had a slightly reduced impact on tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon [2]. - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.20%. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decrease of 1.18% [2]. - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the opening rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,560 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate within a certain range (not specified in the text) [2]. - The overall inventory in Qingdao Port shows a destocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses destocking, and the destocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrowing. Overseas standard rubber arrivals continue to decline, while the arrival and warehousing of mixed rubber increase as expected. The demand side shows that the production scheduling of domestic tire enterprises has mostly returned to normal levels, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The production of semi - steel tire enterprises is expected to remain stable, and the production enthusiasm is expected to remain high. The shipment of all - steel tire enterprises is stable, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 144,081 lots, up 377 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 46,472 lots, down 4,566 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26,945 lots, down 1,631 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10,752 lots, down 225 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 122,570 tons, down 740 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 44,454 tons, up 605 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 610 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 380 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,219 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 689 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.06 Thai baht/kg, up 1.17 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 54.89 Thai baht/kg, up 0.33 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 53.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.75 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.6%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.09%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.44%, up 0.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.45%, up 0.37 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the first week of the future (October 24 - 30, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has an increased impact on rubber tapping. In the southern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly distributed in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a slightly reduced impact on rubber tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon on a month - on - month basis [2]. - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.20%. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decline of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decline of 1.18%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 3.05 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 2.61 percentage points. The warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.89 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points [2]. - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points. The production scheduling during the week mostly returned to normal levels, and the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly this week [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a de - stocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrowing. Overseas standard rubber arrivals continue to decline, and the bonded warehouse in Qingdao shows a slight de - stocking. The arrival and warehousing of mixed rubber increase as expected, but the overall de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrows. The demand side is relatively stable, with the production enthusiasm of semi - steel tire enterprises expected to remain high, and the production of all - steel tire enterprises expected to be stable. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15600 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is not given a specific short - term forecast range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15380 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12540 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 143704 lots, down 1486 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 51038 lots, down 8525 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 25314 lots, down 525 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10527 lots, down 57 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 123310 tons, down 710 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43849 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14750 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15200 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11400 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11200 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 630 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13228 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 688 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 58.89 Thai baht/kg, up 1.02 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 54.89 Thai baht/kg, up 0.33 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.4 Thai baht/kg, up 1.1 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.26 million tons, up 0.95 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 31.75 million tons, up 4.91 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.6%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.09%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 21.09%, down 0.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 21.08%, down 0.82 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (October 24 - 30, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has an enhanced impact on rubber tapping; the red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a slightly weakened impact on rubber tapping. In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month. As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.20%. The inventory in the bonded area was 68,700 tons, a decline of 1.29%; the inventory in general trade was 363,500 tons, a decline of 1.18%. As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [2].

Group 1 - International oil prices surged suddenly on the night of October 22, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 3.74% and Brent crude oil futures increasing by 4.94% [1] - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF (159518) experienced a cumulative increase of 12.37% over the past six months as of October 22, 2025 [1] - The trading volume of the S&P Oil & Gas ETF was active, with a turnover rate of 15.22% and a transaction value of 171 million yuan [4] Group 2 - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF reached a new high in shares at 1.266 billion, marking the highest since its inception [4] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 10 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 70.9246 million yuan, totaling 443 million yuan [4] - The ETF's net value increased by 13.34% over the past six months as of October 21, 2025 [4] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the upcoming winter is expected to be colder than usual due to the dissipation of the effects of previous warm winters caused by the El Niño phenomenon [4] - There is a potential for natural gas shortages in China after five years, should La Niña signals continue to strengthen [4] - According to Guotai Junan, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate upwards due to regional risk premiums and potential new restrictions on Russia by the EU, along with anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the destocking range of general trade warehouses exceeding expectations [2]. - After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered, driving an obvious increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the overall market performance has not improved significantly. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the operation of enterprise devices will be stable in the short term [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,245 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,430 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 55 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,815 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 148,828 lots, down 1,539 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 61,890 lots, down 1,523 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 25,462 lots, down 20 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11,411 lots, down 89 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 127,210 tons, down 530 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 42,640 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,550 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 695 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 732 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.87 Thai baht/kg, down 0.06 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 54.56 Thai baht/kg, up 0.55 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup glue of Thai raw rubber is 51.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.6 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 221 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51.6 US dollars/ton, down 8.4 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 64.52%, up 13.65 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.72%, up 17.46 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.95 days, up 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 45.17 days, down 0.53 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.5%, up 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.07%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.34%, down 1.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.31%, down 1.13 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From October 19th to October 25th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has less impact on tapping; the red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a greater impact on tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month. Pay attention to its subsequent development [2]. - As of October 19th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.07%. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decline of 1.70%; the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decline of 4.51% [2]. - The natural rubber producing areas around the world are in the tapping period. The tapping in Yunnan is normal, and the raw material supply is okay. Driven by the strong futures and spot markets, the raw material purchase price has been slightly raised; in Hainan, affected by Typhoon Fengshen, the night precipitation has increased and the temperature has decreased, and the tapping operation on the island has not resumed, and the actual purchase volume of raw materials by local rubber processing plants is relatively limited [2]. - The warehousing rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.01 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [2]. - As of October 16th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points [2].

Core Insights - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports a significant increase in global atmospheric CO2 concentration, reaching a record high of 423.9 ppm in 2024, an increase of 3.5 ppm from 2023 [1] - The report indicates a continuing acceleration in the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO2, which has quadrupled since the 1960s [1] - The last time CO2 levels were similar to current concentrations was 3 to 5 million years ago, before the emergence of humans [1] Group 1 - The three main causes for the sharp increase in CO2 concentration are ongoing fossil fuel emissions, rampant wildfires releasing large amounts of CO2, and a weakened carbon absorption capacity of global land and oceans [1] - Despite international calls for emissions reduction, fossil fuel emissions remain high, highlighting the urgent need to curb fossil fuel use [1] - The 2024 El Niño phenomenon is expected to exacerbate global temperatures and trigger extreme weather events, further impacting carbon absorption capabilities in critical regions like the Amazon [1] Group 2 - The WMO warns that excessive CO2 will continue to contribute to warming effects on Earth for centuries, leading to more frequent extreme weather events [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a de - stocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse exceeding expectations. After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered significantly, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate. However, the overall market performance has not improved significantly, and some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control to control inventory growth. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,630 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,350 yuan/ton, down 15 - 10 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,800 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume and net position of both Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber have decreased, and the exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber have decreased by 1,340 tons, while those of 20 - number rubber have increased by 1,412 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,950 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 0 - 30 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers have increased by 300 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 and cis - butadiene BR9000 are 11,400 yuan/ton and 11,200 yuan/ton respectively, with the former up 100 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products has decreased, while the price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market has increased by 104 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract has decreased by 81 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet, film, glue, and cup rubber) have different changes. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 have decreased. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons. The weekly opening rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires have increased significantly [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong have different changes. The monthly production of all - steel and semi - steel tires has increased. The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of the underlying asset have decreased, while the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options have increased [2] Industry News - In September 2025, the El Niño Index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon. As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 4.07%. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 1.70%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 4.51%. The natural rubber production areas in Yunnan are in normal production, while Hainan is affected by Typhoon Fengshen, with limited raw material supply [2]