黄金方面： 地缘政治方面，俄乌在近期持续在和平谈判中，近期乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，有望在今年上半年结束俄乌冲突。另外近期美 国和委内瑞拉的冲突也没有进一步升级的迹象，短期地缘的降温恐将令金价承压。 数据方面，隔夜公布的美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，低于市场预期的中值4.7万人。本周五还将公布美国非农就业人口数 据，届时或将影响金价波动，投资者需要重点关注。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，去年年底黄金价格大幅上行且刷新历史新高，主要原因在于美联储宽松的预期以及 美联储的独立性遭受挑战。进入1月份美联储降息的可能性不大，短期需要警惕金价回调风险。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情自高位回落且收阴线，短期警惕金价进一步回调风险。4小时线上看，行情下破20日均线， 短期金价延续偏弱调整的概率比较大。日内关注上方4457美元一线压力情况。 原油方面： 原油市场仍然处于供给过剩的氛围当中。供给端看，美国继续薅委内瑞拉的石油。消息人士表示，5000万桶只是首批，委内瑞 拉将无限期向美国提供石油。美国能源部长表示，美国政府将控制委内瑞拉未来的石油销售。美国自己的原油产量也维持在相 对高位。巨额的原油产量将不 ...

百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前黄金牛市未改，后续存在进一步走高机会。 黄金方面：美国总统特朗普已经不装了，其近期表示前理事沃勒是下一任美联储主席的头号候选人，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特也很出色。不过，特朗 普强调下任美联储主席应该在制定利率政策时候咨询他的意见。特朗普已经在明目张胆地干预美联储的独立性。 地缘摩擦方面，俄罗斯方面表示俄乌和平谈判将是漫长的过程；乌克兰泽连斯基表示，旨在解决俄乌冲突的和平计划不会令所有人满意，暗示地缘摩擦仍然 存在较大的不确定性。 技术面：周线上，上周行情收阳线，显示短期金价偏强势。日线上，行情破位上行，多头占优势。日内关注下方4280美元一线支撑，上方关注4346美元一线 压力。 综合来看，原油市场供给过剩的风险将令油价承压。 技术面：周线上，上周行情下行且收阴线，显示行情短期偏弱。日线上，油价反弹在20日均线遇阻后再度下行，短期维持弱势将是大概率事件。日内关注上 方58.82美元一线压力，下方关注56.85美元一线支撑。 黄金小时图 原油方面：近期乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油设施的袭击已经变成常态化，消息人士表示，乌克兰无人机袭击了俄罗斯Yaroslavl地区的斯拉夫炼油 ...

责任编辑：陈平 从市场机构的分析来看，多数机构对2026年油价前景保持谨慎偏空态度。麦格理集团指出，即便部分因 素如产油国政策调整、极端天气等可能短期延缓价格下跌，但整体供过于求的格局仍难以逆转。ABN AMRO银行进一步分析认为，全球需求增长疲软叠加OPEC+与非OPEC产量增加，将使供给过剩问题延 续至2026年底，布伦特原油价格可能从第一季度的58美元逐步降至年底的50美元，全年均价约为55美 元。SEB银行的观点亦显示，尽管供应端存在一定不确定性和市场波动，但整体油市仍偏空。ZFX山海 证券也强调，2026年全球原油市场的主要矛盾仍在于供给过剩，油价面临持续下行压力。 12月9日，近期，多家国际投资银行以及美国能源信息署（EIA）发布的预测显示，2026年全球原油价 格可能继续承压，平均价格有望跌破每桶60美元。ZFX山海证券分析认为，油价下行的核心动力主要来 源于市场供给持续充裕，而全球原油需求增长放缓进一步加剧了这一趋势。从供给端来看，OPEC+及 非OPEC产油国近期的增产行动，使得市场供应量持续增加，库存压力逐步显现，对油价形成明显的下 行压力。 尽管部分因素可能在一定程度上对价格起到支撑作用 ...

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 淡季供给过剩主导市场走势，油价上方承压。地缘：俄乌地缘仍有扰动， | | 原油 | | 乌克兰袭击 CPC 管道，短期提振油价；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费 | | | 谨慎看空 | 淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国 | | ★ | | 原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国 | | | | 页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本支撑下降，需求下降，液化气承压回落。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下，沙特上调 12 月份 CP 合同价，但盘面已计价； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左 | | | | 右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。策 | | | | 略：空单继续持有。 | | L | | 社会库存反季节性累库，现货跟涨不足，盘面维持升水结构。 ...

黄金方面：近期美联储降息的预期有所升温，美元维持偏弱运行。一方面是美国总统极有可能在近期宣布新一任美联储主席， 甚至暗示哈赛特就是主席人选；另一方面，日本央行极有可能在12月加息，美元弱势将限制金价跌幅。 本文出自百利好 转载请注明 原油方面：原油价格近期恐将延续震荡调整。从地缘政治方面看，俄乌谈判出现反复，甚至仍然有陷入僵局的风险；同时委内 瑞拉极有可能爆发实质性冲突，这将对油价形成支撑。 不过原油供给过剩的风险依旧存在，当前原油库存水平有所升高，即使欧佩克明年第一季度暂停减产，但其产量仍然维持在较 高水平；美国的产量也在历史新高附近；从需求端看，美国近期公布的经济数据偏弱势，恐将对需求不利，供给过剩的担忧依 旧限制油价上行空间。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情收较长下影线K线，显示下方有一定的支撑。指标上看，行情站上20日均线，后续存在进一 步走高的机会。日内关注上方61美元一线压力，下方关注58.50美元一线支撑。 铜方面：日线上，近期铜价较为强势，整体维持偏强运行。指标上看，20日均线和62日均线形成金叉，后续行情延续强势将是 大概率事件。日内关注行情回调测试下方5.23美元一线支撑情况。 日经22 ...

Gold - Recent geopolitical developments suggest potential progress in Ukraine negotiations, which may lead to a de-escalation of the conflict [1] - U.S. retail sales for September are expected to grow by 0.4%, indicating a slight decline in consumer spending compared to the previous month's 0.6% growth [1] - Analysts predict that due to rising unemployment and expectations of peak consumer spending, the market is betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could boost gold prices [1] - Technical analysis shows a recent price rebound, with support at $4,114 and potential for further gains [1] Oil - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased to 419, indicating sustained high levels of oil production [2] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, while non-OPEC countries like Brazil and Guyana are also seeing record high oil exports [2] - Demand for oil remains weak, with seasonal declines and insufficient support for refined oil products [2] - Optimistic signals regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine may reduce risk premiums in the oil market, which is already facing oversupply risks [2] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with resistance at $60 and support at $57 [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook has shifted, with increasing expectations for a rate cut in December [3] - Current market data shows an 81% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from below 40% previously [3] - The dollar index is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with potential risks of a pullback [3] - Technical analysis indicates a possible double top formation, with support at 99.89 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is currently in a weak adjustment phase, having broken below the 20-day moving average [4] - There are concerns about further declines, with resistance at 48,958 [4] Copper - Copper prices have retreated in the context of a strengthening dollar [6] - The price is testing the 62-day moving average, with a potential for further declines if it breaks below this level [6] - Key support is at $4.96 and resistance at $5.09 [6] Market Overview - Saudi Aramco is considering its largest asset sale to raise billions of dollars [7] - A significant rocket launch occurred with the Shenzhou-22 mission [7] - Bank of America forecasts gold prices could reach $5,000 by 2026, while also raising price predictions for copper, aluminum, silver, and platinum [7] Upcoming Data/Events - Key U.S. economic data releases include September retail sales, PPI, and consumer confidence index [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **PP**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **PTA**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Methanol**: Oscillating at the bottom, cautiously bearish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **LNG**: Bullish due to seasonal demand [46] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bullish [8] - **Glass**: Bearish trend continues [7] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish trend continues [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to lower oil prices. There is an oversupply in the off - season, and OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle. Pay attention to US shale oil production and geopolitical developments [1][12]. - **LPG**: Downstream operating rates decline, and inventories accumulate, pressuring LPG prices. The cost side is affected by crude oil trends [1][17]. - **L**: Domestic supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient. The bearish trend continues [1][22]. - **PP**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are high, demand is weak, and oil prices may continue to fall. The bearish trend persists [1][26]. - **PVC**: Basis is repaired, but social inventories are high. There is limited room for further price decline due to low valuations [1][30]. - **PTA**: Supply - side pressure eases, downstream demand is relatively good, but cost pressure exists. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [3][32]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream demand is relatively good, but there is a lack of upward drivers. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [3][35]. - **Methanol**: Supply pressure is large, demand has improved slightly, and the cost side has weak support. It is in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage [3][39]. - **Urea**: Domestic fundamentals are loose, with high supply and mixed demand. Be wary of downward risks [3][43]. - **LNG**: As the temperature drops, demand for heating increases, but supply is sufficient, and the upward momentum is weakening [46][48]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by South American geopolitics, there is short - term support. However, it is in the consumption off - season, and prices may still have room to decline [8][52]. - **Glass**: Supply has declined, but demand is weak due to the weak real - estate market. The bearish trend continues [7][57]. - **Soda Ash**: Demand support weakens, and the bearish trend continues [7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: International oil prices dropped last Friday. WTI decreased by 1.59%, Brent by 2.27%, and SC by 0.44% [11] - **Fundamental Logic**: Downstream refined - oil profits are good, but there is an oversupply of crude oil. Geopolitical factors also affect prices [12] - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Arabia's September crude oil exports reached a 7 - month high. OPEC forecasts global crude oil demand growth. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending November 14 [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the SC price range of [440 - 450] [14] LPG - **Market Review**: On November 21, the PG main contract closed at 4363 yuan/ton, down 0.43% [16] - **Fundamental Logic**: It is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Downstream chemical operating rates decline, and inventories accumulate [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the PG price range of [4150 - 4250] [18] L - **Futures and Spot Market**: The L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton. The basis is - 18 yuan/ton [21] - **Fundamental Logic**: The basis is repaired, supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. Cost support is insufficient [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the L price range of [6800 - 6950] [22] PP - **Futures and Spot Market**: The PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton. The basis is + 28 yuan/ton [25] - **Fundamental Logic**: The cost side is weak, inventories are high, and demand is weak. Oil prices may continue to fall [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the PP price range of [6350 - 6500] [26] PVC - **Futures and Spot Market**: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton. The basis is - 76 yuan/ton [29] - **Fundamental Logic**: The basis is repaired, anti - dumping is unlikely, and export orders increase. Social inventories are high, but there is low - valuation support [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the V price range of [4400 - 4550] [30] PTA - **Market Data**: PTA spot processing fee is 161.6 yuan/ton. Some new devices are put into operation, and some are under maintenance [31][32] - **Fundamental Logic**: Supply - side pressure eases, demand is relatively good, but the cost side is under pressure. There is an inventory - accumulation expectation in December [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices [32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 closed at 3901 yuan/ton. The basis is 40 yuan/ton [34] - **Fundamental Logic**: Domestic operating loads decline, overseas loads increase slightly. Demand is relatively good, but there is an inventory - accumulation expectation in November [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the EG price range of [3760 - 3830] [36] Methanol - **Market Data**: The main contract's position is 137.1 million lots. The 11 - month import volume is estimated to be about 1.5 million tons [39] - **Fundamental Logic**: Supply pressure is large, demand improves slightly, and the cost side has weak support [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually close short positions. Look for opportunities to go long on the 05 contract at low prices [39] Urea - **Market Data**: The UR01 closed at 1654 yuan/ton. Daily production is 202,500 tons [42] - **Fundamental Logic**: Supply pressure remains, demand is mixed, and inventories are still high. Be wary of downward risks [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices. Pay attention to the UR price range of [1635 - 1665] [45] LNG - **Market Review**: On November 21, the NG main contract closed at 4.667 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.81% [47] - **Fundamental Logic**: As the temperature drops, demand increases, but supply is sufficient. US natural gas inventories decreased [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is likely to rise but has limited upward space. Pay attention to the NG price range of [4.548 - 4.901] [49] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 21, the BU main contract closed at 3009 yuan/ton, down 1.60% [51] - **Fundamental Logic**: It is affected by South American geopolitics and crude - oil costs. Supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions and buy call options. Pay attention to the BU price range of [2950 - 3050] [53] Glass - **Futures and Spot Market**: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton. The basis is 77 yuan/ton [56] - **Fundamental Logic**: Supply declines, but demand is weak due to the real - estate market [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, the bearish trend persists. Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the FG price range of [1000 - 1050] [57] Soda Ash - **Fundamental Logic**: Demand support weakens, and the bearish trend continues [7][58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions at low prices. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: PTA, Natural Gas [28][5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude Oil, LPG, Ethylene Glycol, Methanol, Urea, Asphalt [1][3][5] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L, PP [1] - **Bearish Continuation**: PVC, Glass, Soda Ash [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: European diesel price hikes drive oil price rebounds, but supply surplus and inventory accumulation limit upside potential, with a downward pressure [1][8]. - **LPG**: High basis and over - valued futures lead to price pressure, with upstream crude oil supply exceeding demand [1][14]. - **L**: Domestic supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient, with a short - term rebound and long - term bearish outlook [19]. - **PP**: Cost - side weakness, high inventory, and OPEC+ expansion lead to a bearish outlook, with short - term stabilization and long - term bearishness [23]. - **PVC**: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low valuation limits further decline, with opportunities for short - selling hedging and low - buying [27]. - **PTA**: Supply pressure eases, demand is relatively good but may weaken, cost support exists, and there is an opportunity to expand processing fees [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand may weaken, valuation is low but lacks upward drive, with a low - level oscillation and bearish outlook [32]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses prices, supply pressure is large, demand is average, and the fundamentals remain weak [36]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure increases, demand weakens, inventory is high, and there is a risk of price decline [40]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand support rises, but supply is sufficient, and the upward space is limited [44]. - **Asphalt**: Follows the oil price, with cost support decreasing, supply surplus, and a bearish outlook [49]. - **Glass**: Supply decline is limited, demand is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [54]. - **Soda Ash**: Demand support weakens, supply is abundant, and the bearish trend continues [55]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.35%, Brent up 1.07%, and SC up 0.33% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: Downstream refined oil profits are good, European diesel prices drive the rebound, but supply surplus and geopolitical uncertainties exist [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Angola's January exports will decrease, OPEC forecasts global demand growth, and US commercial crude inventories increase [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close previous short positions, with SC focusing on [450 - 470] [10]. LPG - **Market Review**: On November 18, the PG main contract closed at 4381 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to the cost - side crude oil, high basis and over - valued futures, with supply and demand changes [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short, with PG focusing on [4350 - 4450] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton, up 0.4% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Basis repair, abundant supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short - term, wait for a rebound to short in the long - term, with L focusing on [6800 - 6950] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side weakness, high inventory, and OPEC+ expansion [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short - term, wait for a rebound to short in the long - term, with PP focusing on [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4586 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low valuation limits decline [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hedge short - selling for industries, look for low - buying opportunities, with V focusing on [4400 - 4650] [27]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 4762 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure eases, demand is relatively good but may weaken, cost support exists [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to expand processing fees, with TA focusing on [4640 - 4710] [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG01 closed at 4013 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand may weaken, and valuation is low but lacks upward drive [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with EG focusing on [3850 - 3920] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review section. - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses prices, supply pressure is large, demand is average, and cost support is weak [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be held cautiously, and pay attention to MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [3]. Urea - **Market Review**: UR01 closed at 1652 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases, demand weakens, and inventory is high [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious of price drops, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with UR focusing on [1640 - 1670] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 17, the NG main contract closed at 4.593 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 3.75% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand support rises, but supply is sufficient [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to [4.200 - 4.511], with limited upward space [45]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 18, the BU main contract closed at 3032 yuan/ton, unchanged [48]. - **Basic Logic**: Follows the oil price, cost support decreases, supply and demand decline, and inventory decreases [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, with BU focusing on [3000 - 3100] [50]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply decline is limited, demand is weak due to the real - estate market [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, with FG focusing on [1000 - 1050] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review section. - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, supply is abundant in the long - term [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds in the long - term, exit long - alkali and short - glass spreads [5].

Gold Market - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut in October, but Chairman Powell's hawkish comments indicate significant division among officials regarding future cuts, which may pressure gold prices in the short term [1] - The recent end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has led to a cautious market sentiment, as economic data from the shutdown period is expected to be released soon [1] - Analyst Chen Yu suggests that while short-term fluctuations in gold prices are likely, the long-term bullish trend remains intact due to declining dollar credibility [1] - Technically, gold prices are currently above the 20-day moving average, but there is a risk of a pullback, with support at $4152 [1] Oil Market - OPEC's latest report predicts an increase in oil supply from competitors, leading to a potential oversupply in the global oil market, exacerbated by rising exports from the Middle East [2] - Despite sanctions, Russia's oil production increased to 9.411 million barrels per day in October [2] - On the demand side, China's refinery utilization rate rose to 52.45% in early November, indicating a recovery in demand [2] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has not alleviated market concerns, as the fear index has risen, suggesting a lack of confidence in the economic outlook [2] - Technically, oil prices are currently below the 20-day moving average, with resistance at $62 and support at $59 [2] U.S. Dollar Index - President Trump stated that the government shutdown resulted in a $1.5 trillion loss, and the economic outlook is under pressure, with a projected 1.5% decline in GDP for Q4 due to the shutdown [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 51.6%, indicating a potential strengthening of the dollar [3] - Technically, the dollar index has broken below the 20-day moving average, suggesting further downside potential, with support at 98.87 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been in a consolidation phase, with potential for continued adjustment [4] - The index is currently below the 20-day moving average, indicating a need for caution regarding further downside risks [4] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown strength after testing the 62-day support level, indicating bullish momentum [5] - The market remains above both the 20-day and 62-day moving averages, suggesting continued bullish sentiment [5] - Attention is on the potential test of support at $5 [5] Economic Overview - The International Monetary Fund has indicated that pressures on the U.S. economy are increasing, with Q4 growth expected to be below the previously forecasted 1.9% due to the government shutdown [6] - Federal Reserve official Daly stated that it is too early to predict the December rate cut, maintaining an open stance [6] - The Trump administration has lifted the ban on oil reserve extraction in Alaska [6] Upcoming Data/Events - Key economic data releases include U.S. October retail sales and PPI, along with a speech from Fed's Bostic [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2][4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Glass, soda ash: Bearish consolidation [7] Core Views - Crude oil: Supply surplus in the off - season is the core driver, and oil prices are under downward pressure. OPEC+ plans to expand production in December and pause in early next year [2][10]. - LPG: Cost - side is bearish, and the price of LPG is weakening. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved, the cost - side impact is significant [2]. - L: Cost support is weakening, and the bearish trend continues. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand lacks replenishment momentum [2]. - PP: The inventory pressure in the industrial chain is high, and the bearish trend continues. Oil - based cost support is insufficient [2]. - PVC: Low valuation vs. weak reality, the bearish trend continues. Pay attention to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand contradiction [2]. - PX: Supply - demand is short - term improved, but oil prices are under pressure. Look for opportunities to short at high prices [2]. - PTA: Supply - demand is slightly improved, but oil prices are under pressure. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November [4]. - MEG: Low valuation vs. oil price pressure, the trend is weakly oscillating. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November [4]. - Methanol: The fundamentals are still weak. Pay attention to the inflection point of inventory destocking. High inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices [4]. - Urea: Low valuation vs. weak fundamentals. Consider going long on a small scale in the medium - to - long - term. Supply pressure increases, and winter demand and export benefits are limited [4]. - Natural gas: With the decline in temperature, the demand peak season is coming, and gas prices are likely to rise. The demand side has support, and the supply side is sufficient [7]. - Asphalt: Cost is weakening, and supply - demand is both decreasing. Asphalt is under downward pressure. The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient [7]. - Glass: Capital game is intense, and it is recommended to participate with caution. The fundamental pattern is loose, and the inventory is high [7]. - Soda ash: Inventory is slightly destocked, and the bearish trend rebounds. Supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is mostly rigid [7]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 1.59%, Brent dropped 1.43%, and SC dropped 0.67% [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States may reduce India's oil purchases. The core driver is supply surplus in the off - season, and global crude oil inventory is accelerating accumulation [10]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ will expand production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 next year. Russia's oil exports to India have decreased. US crude oil inventory has increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing short positions, and consider adding short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 460] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On November 5, the PG main contract closed at 4,247 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - side crude oil. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand side has some resilience. The inventory in ports has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory is slowly decreasing. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand lacks replenishment momentum. Oil prices may decline in the medium - term [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Up - and mid - stream inventories are at a high level. Demand is at the end of the peak season, and there is high inventory - removal pressure. Oil - based cost support is insufficient [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PP [6450 - 6600] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices have dropped, and cost support is weakening. The inventory is high, and the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is being compressed [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the range of V [4550 - 4700] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are reducing load, and overseas devices are increasing load. Demand is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX spreads are at certain levels. Oil prices are in a loose supply - demand pattern [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at low valuations. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the range of PX [6560 - 6660] [30]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA01 contract closed at 4,586 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees are low. Later device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, and supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at low valuations. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the range of TA [4540 - 4610] [33]. MEG - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices are increasing load. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3880 - 3940] [36]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices. Look for opportunities in MA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Pay attention to the range of MA [2095 - 2145] [41]. Urea - **Market Review**: The UR01 contract closed at 1,625 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing. Demand has slightly improved, but winter demand and export benefits are limited. Inventory is at a high level but is decreasing [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long on a small scale in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the range of UR [1615 - 1645] [45]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 4, the NG main contract closed at 4.573 US dollars per million British thermal units [47]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks are released, and the demand side has support due to the arrival of the heating season. The supply side is sufficient [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.262 - 4.458]. The demand for heating is increasing, but the upward pressure is rising [49]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 5, the BU main contract closed at 3,166 yuan/ton [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly affected by the cost - side crude oil. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is increasing [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on a small scale. The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3200] [53]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1,095 yuan/ton [56]. - **Basic Logic**: Daily melting volume is low but increasing. The fundamental pattern is loose, and inventory is high. Deep - processing orders are at a low level [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The pattern is loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the range of FG [1060 - 1110] [57]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton [60]. - **Basic Logic**: Factory inventory is slightly decreasing but remains high. Demand is mostly rigid, and supply is in a loose pattern [61]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [61].