交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-21原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2510： 1.基本面：俄罗斯驻新德里大使馆官员表示，尽管美国发出警告，俄罗斯预计将继续向印度供应石油，并 补充说莫斯科希望不久能与印度和中国举行三方会谈；美国能源信息署(EIA)周三公布的库存报告显示，美 国上周原油和汽油库存下降，但馏分油库存增加；7月货币政策会议纪要显示，多数美联储官员在上月的会 议中强调，通胀风险已压倒对劳动力市场的担忧；中性 2.基差：8月20日，阿曼原油现货价为68.82美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为68.38美元/桶，基差31.24 元/桶，现货平水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至8月1 ...

需求端来看，好消息也不多。需求端并非如供应端那样，受到特定国家的产出限制，而是取决于全球经济是走向繁荣还是走向衰败。原油需求国 中，美国排名第一，其次是欧洲诸国，再之后是亚洲经济较强的国家。特朗普上台对原油需求面本身就是利空冲击，典型案例是特朗普上台之 前，原油报价在70美元上方，特朗普上台后，原油报价最低达到50美元附近。原因在于，特朗普以美国优先原则，持续向盟友国家和非盟友国家 施加不对等政策，典型就是关税政策。这些政策虽然有利于美国降低总负债水平（逻辑上有利，实际美国负债再次创出新高），但会对全球其他 国家经济发展形成严重冲击。全球经济发展预期不乐观的情况下，WTI也难言大涨。 在供需两端均利空油价的情况下，多头凭借什么力量实现上攻？答案就是空头的强弩之末。当空头力量减弱时，行情会从大跌转向震荡。如果行 情迟迟不破位，会引发空头持仓耐心耗尽平仓离场，而平仓的动作实际上就是变相买入。另外，从技术角度看，WTI价格已经来到6月11日以来的 关键支撑位附近，存在触底反弹的可能。重点关注周三4:30的API数据，如果利多油价，可能成为反弹行情导火索。如果利空油价，则WTI可能延 续震荡偏空态势。 ATFX风险提 ...

原油&燃料油数据日报 ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 能源化工研究中心 叶海文 从业资格证号:F3071622 投资咨询证号: Z0014205 元/吨 LU隔月价差 -12. 50% 7 8 -1 燃油 元/吨 FU-SC价差 +6. 58% -69 -65 -4 LU-SC价差 元/吨 +0. 46% 43 0 44 元/吨 LU-FU价差 +4.13% 732 703 29 单位: 涨跌 涨跌幅 前值 现值 美元/桶 阿曼原油 -0. 89% 68. 76 69. 38 -0.62 原油 俄罗斯ESPO 美元/桶 -0.73% 62. 47 62. 93 -0. 46 现货价格 布伦特Dtd 美元/桶 +0. 26% 68. 15 67. 97 0. 18 新加坡高硫 美元/吨 -2.23% 394 403 -9 燃料油 新加坡低硫 美元/吨 -0.61% 486. 5 -3 489. 5 单位: 涨跌 涨跌幅 现值 前值 原油商业库存 千桶 -0.71% 423662 -3029 426691 汽油库存 千桶 -0. 58% 227082 -1323 228405 美国E ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-12原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2509： 1.基本面：白宫一位官员周一表示，美国总统特朗普已签署一项行政命令，将与中国的关税休战期再延长 90天；公布的调查显示，OPEC+7月原油产量降至4165万桶/日，此前为应对伊朗与以色列冲突可能引发的供 应冲击而采取的应急措施，导致6月原油产量创下峰值；尽管通胀有所抬头，但投资者依然乐观地认为，美 联储将在9月降息，如果通胀月率在0.3%或以下，市场普遍预计美联储将降息；中性 2.基差：8月11日，阿曼原油现货价为68.14美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为67.56美元/桶，基差14.79 元/桶，现货升 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report previously indicated that oil prices in August were under downward pressure, and since early August, crude oil has been continuously weakening. The WTI crude oil price has dropped by approximately $7 during this period. The market's main trading logic is the repricing of geopolitics, with an increased possibility of progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks mediated by the US. However, risks after the continuous decline in oil prices should not be ignored, such as over - optimism about the peace talks and the impact of sanctions. It is not recommended to short oil prices at this time, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the US - Russia - Ukraine talks [5][77]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Overall Decline**: This week, oil prices declined overall. Trump claimed significant progress in talks with Russia and a high possibility of a summit between Zelensky and Putin, leading the market to price in a higher probability of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and causing a rapid drop in oil prices. As of August 7, the WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $63.82 per barrel, Brent crude at $66.41 per barrel, and the SC crude oil futures active contract at 508.9 yuan per barrel [5][10]. - **Weakening of Inter - monthly Spreads**: No detailed content on the specific situation of the weakening of inter - monthly spreads is provided [12]. - **Differentiation in Net Long Positions of Crude Oil Funds**: As of the week ending July 29, the net long position of WTI funds was 97,387 lots, a decrease of 850 lots from the previous week; the net long position of Brent funds was 249,973 lots, an increase of 22,728 lots from the previous week. In the refined oil market, the net long positions of gasoline, diesel, and heating oil increased by 6,049 lots, 2,817 lots, and 2,042 lots respectively [17]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: OPEC+ agreed at an August 3 meeting to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September. The voluntary production cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day are planned to be fully restored. However, in June, the actual increase in production was limited. OPEC's crude oil production in June was 27.235 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day. The main contributor to the increase was Saudi Arabia, while Iran's production decreased due to conflicts [21]. - **United States**: US crude oil production is at a high level, but the ability to increase production is limited due to limited changes in the number of rigs and low producer willingness to expand production at low oil prices. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the weekly US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.367 million barrels per day [31]. - **Risks**: The market is pricing in a higher probability of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, causing a rapid drop in oil prices. Trump's additional tariffs on India for buying Russian oil may be for negotiation chips. With the ongoing US - Russia and Russia - Ukraine talks, considering the VIX level of domestic crude oil, purchasing SC call options can be considered to avoid extreme risks [33]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: As of the week ending August 1, gasoline and jet fuel demand declined, while distillate demand increased slightly. Overall, US oil demand decreased month - on - month. Gasoline demand was 9.04 million barrels per day, a decrease of 112,000 barrels per day from the previous week; distillate demand was 3.72 million barrels per day, an increase of 115,000 barrels per day from the previous week; jet fuel demand was 1.705 million barrels per day, a decrease of 388,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The total US petroleum product demand was 20.122 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.265 million barrels per day from the previous week. Refinery capacity utilization reached 96.9%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous week, and crude oil processing volume was 17.124 million barrels per day, an increase of 213,000 barrels per day from the previous week [34][46]. - **China**: The anti - involution policy has not directly affected the oil market. Attention should be paid to whether it can drive the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and thus increase crude oil demand. In June, consumption improved, and crude oil processing volume increased mainly due to the significant increase in the operating rate of major refineries. The operating rate of local refineries remained low due to tax policy adjustments and the transformation of domestic energy demand [50]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: US crude oil inventories decreased slightly, and the inventory level fluctuated at a low level. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) were 423.662 million barrels, a decrease of 3.029 million barrels from the previous week; SPR inventories were 402.976 million barrels, an increase of 235,000 barrels from the previous week. Cushing's weekly crude oil inventory increased by 460,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories continued to decline but were at a relatively high level, distillate inventories decreased slightly, and jet fuel inventories increased [60][66]. - **OECD**: In June, global crude oil demand was strong, and OECD inventories decreased slightly. The monthly global crude oil supply was 104.9 million barrels per day, demand was 104.43 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 470,000 barrels per day. OECD inventories at the end of June were 2.796 billion barrels, a decrease of 150 million barrels from the previous month [72]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The report reiterates that oil prices declined this week due to the market's repricing of geopolitics. After the continuous decline in oil prices, risks such as over - optimism about peace talks and sanctions should be considered. It is not recommended to short oil prices at this time, and attention should be paid to the US - Russia - Ukraine talks [77].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the oil market are generally neutral, with limited production growth from OPEC+ and the US, and the actual demand in the peak season slightly falling short of expectations. Oil prices are mainly driven by macro - level tariffs, sanctions, and geopolitical situations. In the medium term, as demand moves towards the off - season, oil prices may fall again. Due to the fermentation of negative macro - level sentiment, it is advisable to consider short positions after a rebound [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: The WTI main contract opened at $65.15, closed at $64.27, with a high of $66.75, a low of $63.64, a decline of 1.37%, and a trading volume of 33.36 million lots. The Brent main contract opened at $67.75, closed at $66.96, with a high of $69.18, a low of $66.22, a decline of 1.01%, and a trading volume of 39.59 million lots. The SC main contract (yuan/barrel) opened at 508.4, closed at 501, with a high of 510.9, a low of 497.5, a decline of 0.63%, and a trading volume of 14.76 million lots [6]. - **News**: According to the New York Times, Trump may meet with Putin face - to - face next week, followed by a three - way meeting with Zelensky. Under this background, the possibility of the US imposing secondary tariffs on Russian energy is extremely low [6]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending August 1st, US crude oil inventories declined more than expected, and the refinery utilization rate reached a new high. However, US refined oil demand remained weak, with gasoline consumption in the peak season not significantly increasing and being lower than the same period in 2024 for four consecutive weeks [7]. 2. Industry News - Goldman Sachs data shows that although Russia supplies about one - third of India's crude oil, the US share climbed to 8% from April to May 2025 and was 4% in the 2025 fiscal year [8]. - The Iraqi oil minister said that oil exports through the Turkish Ceyhan pipeline will resume on Wednesday or Thursday [8]. - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian military attacked the Ukrainian natural gas transportation system supplying military facilities [8]. - After the US decided to impose a 25% new tariff on Indian goods, Indian refiners are waiting for government instructions on whether to continue buying Russian oil [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund position, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory, with data sources from wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]

| Market | 国投期货 | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月07日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 文☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价回落，SC09合约日内跌0.97%。周三特朗普因印度购买俄油对其加征25%关税，但将于21天后执 行,同时在8月8日俄乌停火协议截止日前的2天,特朗普表示美俄会谈成果积极，俄罗斯或通过空中停火等形式 达成阶段性协议。种种迹象表明美国持续威胁的对俄制裁最终落地或不及预期，地缘风险溢价大幅消退。上周 美国EIA原油库存超预期下降302.9万桶，但旺季后原油供需展望仍偏宽松，关注美国对俄制裁的最终落地情 况,油市或再次转向悲观供需面主导的偏弱行情。 【燃料油&低硫 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The crude oil market is expected to experience volatile price movements. The market is influenced by factors such as the seasonal peak travel season, changes in US crude oil inventories, OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about the US economy [1]. Group 3: Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is range-bound trading. The seasonal peak travel season has led to low US crude oil inventories. However, the latest EIA report shows a larger-than-expected decline in gasoline inventories and a significant unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, resulting in an overall increase in refined oil inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, which may impact the supply - demand balance. Concerns about reduced supply from Russia and Iran due to geopolitical factors and worries about the US economy also affect the market [1]. Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main futures contract (2509) of crude oil dropped by 1.55% to 508.8 yuan per ton, with a lowest price of 502.2 yuan per ton and a highest price of 513.2 yuan per ton. The open interest increased by 24 to 28,256 lots [2]. Group 5: Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the 2025 US crude oil production forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the expected increase in global oil inventories in the second half of 2025 from 800,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. IEA reduced the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 16,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 rate by 18,000 barrels per day to 722,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rates at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week ending July 25, US crude oil inventories increased by 7.698 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels [3]. Group 6: Supply and Demand - On the supply side, OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day to 27.016 million barrels per day, while its June 2025 production increased by 219,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels per day to 13.314 million barrels per day in the week of July 25. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.801 million barrels per day, 2.52% higher than the same period last year. However, the single - week supply of US crude oil products decreased by 1.76% month - on - month due to a significant decrease in other refined oil products, despite increases in gasoline and diesel demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The EIA and IEA have raised their global oil supply forecasts for 2025, with predictions of 10510.89 million barrels per day and 10460.15 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting an increase from 2024 [2][33] - Global oil demand is projected to increase in 2025, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasting demand at 10368.24 million barrels per day, 10353.85 million barrels per day, and 10510.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] - Oil prices have shown a decline in the first half of 2025, with Brent crude down by 9.77% and WTI down by 10.78% since the beginning of the year [3][9] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 at 10510.89, 10460.15, and 10396.00 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases of +209.60, +180.46, and +161.06 million barrels per day [2][33] - For Q3 2025, the predicted supply increases are +251.25, +226.71, and +171.59 million barrels per day [33] Oil Demand - The demand forecasts for 2025 are 10368.24 million barrels per day (IEA), 10353.85 million barrels per day (EIA), and 10510.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with increases from 2024 of +70.42, +79.72, and +126.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] Oil Prices - As of July 23, 2025, Brent crude is priced at 68.51 USD/barrel, WTI at 65.25 USD/barrel, with respective declines of -2.85% and -4.76% over the past month [3][9] Oil Inventory - Predictions for global oil inventory changes in 2025 are +142.65 million barrels per day (IEA), +106.29 million barrels per day (EIA), and -114.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with an average change of +44.98 million barrels per day [28][2] Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [4]

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年8月3日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：多单持有，酌情逢低 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 加多 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：多单持有，酌情逢低加多 | 供应 | OPEC+核心国家（沙特、阿联酋等 ...