近期，我国多个地区的快递费用出现了上调现象，这一变动引起了广泛关注。据深入调查，电子商务重地广东和浙江的多家快递公司，已经针对电商客户实 施了价格上涨措施。其中，广东地区成为此次调价的重点，每件快递的涨价幅度介于0.3元至0.7元之间，并设立了1.4元每单的最低价格标准。 快递费用的上涨迅速波及到了电子商务领域。8月20日，一位广东的电商商家透露，尽管此次调价幅度看似不大，仅为几毛钱，但考虑到庞大的发货量，其 每月的额外支出将至少增加3万元。商家表示，这一成本增长很难通过提高商品价格来转嫁给消费者。 此次快递涨价的背后，是行业内对反内卷竞争的积极响应。今年7月，国家邮政局相继召开了党组会议和快递企业座谈会，明确提出要治理快递行业的内卷 式竞争，推动行业的健康稳定发展。 长期以来，快递行业一直深陷价格战泥潭，尤其是以加盟制为主的通达系快递公司，竞争尤为激烈。业内人士指出，价格战的产生与当前的经济环境以及加 盟制快递企业的单量考核制度密切相关。为了完成考核任务，一些加盟商甚至不惜以亏损价格收件。 面对涨价带来的成本压力，电商商家们反应不一。有的商家表示，受制于平台规则和市场竞争，不敢轻易提高商品价格，担心涨价会导 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a positive trend in airline stocks, with significant increases in share prices for major airlines in China, including Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Air China, and Cathay Pacific [1] - The China Air Transport Association has officially released the "Self-Discipline Convention for Air Passenger Transport," emphasizing the need for industry self-regulation, market order maintenance, and enhanced anti-monopoly measures [1] - The convention advocates strict adherence to laws related to pricing and competition, aiming to eliminate malicious competitive behaviors such as predatory pricing and false advertising [1] Group 2 - Cathay Securities notes that the passenger load factor during the summer travel season remains high, with stable ticket prices, indicating potential for significant profits during this period [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China is implementing measures to address "involution" competition, which is expected to reduce excessive low pricing in the short term and improve revenue management in the medium term [1] - Long-term policies are anticipated to ensure a low growth rate in fleet planning, while short-term demand fluctuations do not alter the overall positive outlook for the industry [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Real Estate**: The 30-city property sales in China declined by -21% YoY in the first 26 days of July, worsening from -8% YoY in June, with tier 1 and tier 2 cities experiencing sharper declines of -28% and -21% respectively, while tier 3 cities saw a narrower decline of -10% YoY [2][23] - **Steel Production**: Steel production remained weak, showing a decline of -4% YoY in the first 20 days of July, slightly improving from -5% YoY in June [2][20] - **Port Activities**: Port cargo throughput growth improved to 10% YoY in July, while container throughput growth stabilized at 4% YoY [2][12] - **Auto Sales**: Auto retail sales growth softened to 11% YoY in July from 15% YoY in June, attributed to a high base effect, while wholesale growth increased to 22% YoY from 14% YoY [2][17] Fiscal and Economic Data - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: In June, general fiscal revenue growth decreased to -0.3% YoY from +0.1% YoY in May, while general fiscal expenditure growth slowed to 0.4% YoY from 2.6% YoY [3][29] - **Land Sales**: Local land sales revenue rebounded to 20.8% YoY in June from -8.1% YoY previously, indicating a recovery from a low base [3] - **Industrial Profits**: Total industrial profit declined by -3.7% YoY in Q2, an improvement from -1% YoY in Q1, with manufacturing profit growth edging down to 4.5% YoY in Q2 [4][25] Policy and Infrastructure Developments - **Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Project**: The project, with an expected capacity of 60 GW and a total investment of RMB 1.2 trillion (USD 170 billion), is anticipated to have limited direct impact on aggregate levels but will improve local infrastructure and potentially lower power prices [7] - **Government Policies**: The government is focusing on "anti-involution competition" and has proposed amendments to the Price Law to refine criteria for unfair pricing acts [5] Trade Relations - **US Trade Deals**: Recent trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and the EU have set reciprocal tariffs at 15% for Japan and 19% for the Philippines, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [8] Upcoming Events - **Politburo Meeting**: The upcoming meeting is expected to maintain a supportive macro policy tone, with discussions on stabilizing the housing market and potential preliminary information about the new five-year plan [9] Additional Insights - **Container Freight Index**: The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) continued to decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in the shipping sector [2][10] - **Government Bond Issuance**: Net issuance of Chinese government bonds softened to RMB 11 billion, while gross issuance of new special local government bonds increased to RMB 205 billion [2][14] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state of various industries, fiscal data, policy developments, and trade relations.

Group 1 - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policies are being implemented, which are expected to benefit the chemical industry. The central government has emphasized the need for industry self-discipline and the elimination of inefficient production capacity [1][10][11] - The chemical industry is identified as a "disaster area" for involution competition, with some product sales prices significantly below production costs, leading to prolonged losses. Under the backdrop of national measures to address this issue, these industries are expected to rebound [2][11] Group 2 - The report notes that the chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange experienced a weekly increase of 1.71%, with all sub-sectors showing positive growth. The sectors with the highest weekly increases include professional technical services (+4.19%) and textile manufacturing (+2.90%) [3][21][22] - Individual stocks within the chemical new materials sector that performed well include Zhongyu Technology (+16.79%), Litong Technology (+9.98%), and Huitong New Materials (+7.34%) [3][25][26] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the price trends of chemical products, indicating fluctuations in various materials. For instance, Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.2%, while TDI prices increased by 2.6% and natural rubber prices rose by 3.4% [29][32][37] - The report also mentions that the prices of polyethylene increased by 0.6%, while ABS prices fell by 0.7% [45][49] Group 4 - The report includes a company announcement regarding KQ Co., which has postponed its fundraising project to September 2026 to ensure the project's effectiveness and mitigate risks [4][53] - Minshida reported a revenue of 237 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.91%, with a net profit of 63.03 million yuan, up 42.28% year-on-year [4][54]

Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - The U.S. job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropping to the lowest level since June, indicating a strong employment situation [2] - The U.S. government has postponed the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, imposing tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on 14 countries, leading to a stalemate in tariff negotiations with major economies [2][3] - Domestic CPI growth turned positive in June, driven by rising energy prices, while PPI continues to face downward pressure due to weak demand [2][3] Fixed Income Research - The overall interest rates have slightly increased, with the yield curve flattening, influenced by expectations of new real estate policies and regulatory pressures on local banks [4][5] - The central bank has net withdrawn nearly 800 billion yuan in the open market, leading to a slight rise in funding prices, while maintaining a generally loose monetary environment [5][6] - The primary market saw limited supply pressure, with a total issuance of 62 bonds amounting to 621.7 billion yuan, indicating a stable funding environment [5][6] Industry Research - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is experiencing a surge in performance forecasts, with significant announcements such as Merck's $10 billion acquisition of Verona and the approval of new drugs [8][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, with the pharmaceutical sector increasing by 0.88%, indicating positive market sentiment towards the industry [10] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities related to innovative drugs and the supply chain, particularly in sectors benefiting from policy optimization and improving overseas demand [10]

Market Overview - In the past five trading days (July 4 - July 10), major indices mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.18% [2] - The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.42 trillion yuan, down by 180.52 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Among industries, real estate, media, and comprehensive sectors saw the highest gains, while non-ferrous metals, defense, and home appliances experienced the largest declines [2] Inflation and Price Trends - On July 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released June inflation data, showing that the CPI year-on-year growth turned positive, with a marginal reduction in the month-on-month decline [2] - The PPI continued to decline both year-on-year and month-on-month in June, with expectations of ongoing negative growth due to global demand uncertainties and seasonal factors affecting domestic pricing [3] Policy Developments - The "anti-involution" initiative has expanded its scope, with preliminary effects observed. On July 7, 33 construction-related state-owned and private enterprises jointly called for resisting "involutionary" competition [3] - The solar industry has shown positive price signals, with polysilicon prices rising by 33.3% since the beginning of July, indicating a potential supply-side clearing [3] Investment Strategy - The decline in PPI indicates continued short-term profit pressures for companies, but the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy strengthens medium to long-term profit recovery expectations [4] - Future market trends will depend on the balance between weak short-term performance and strong long-term expectations, with potential for continued upward movement if economic data does not show significant decline [4] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the banking sector are driven by multiple measures to encourage insurance capital entry and a low interest rate environment [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive supply-side clearing, presenting recovery opportunities in the power equipment and building materials sectors [4] - The TMT sector, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries may present thematic investment opportunities due to AI trends and international expansion [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock indices, futures, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It provides market trends, influencing factors, and trading strategies for each sector, emphasizing the need to pay attention to policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - financial - **Stock Indices**: The previous trading day saw most stock indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.90%. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1309.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.2 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long positions in IF index futures on dips, and there is no arbitrage recommendation [2][4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yields of some treasury bond futures contracts showed small fluctuations. The economic data is affected by tariff policies, and the export may face pressure in the future. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards liquidity, and the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. It is advisable to enter the market on dips [6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: The "Big and Beautiful Act" has been passed, and the US is about to implement a loose fiscal policy. The silver price shows resilience. The Fed is expected to maintain the interest rate in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - buying opportunities of silver [8][9]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuates downward. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the inventory is structurally low, providing strong support for the price. However, the short - term upward pressure increases. The reference operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 79,800 - 81,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rise is blocked due to inventory accumulation. The domestic and overseas inventory is at a low level, supporting the price, but the inventory increase and weak demand form pressure. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract is 20,500 - 20,800 yuan/ton [12]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rises. The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the TC continues to rise. The recent commodity atmosphere is good, which boosts the zinc price [13][14]. - **Lead**: The lead price shows a strong upward trend. The supply from the primary end is high, and the supply from the secondary end is in short supply. The downstream demand improves marginally. The domestic weak consumption restricts the increase of the SHFE lead price [15]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuates. The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens. It is advisable to sell short on rallies. The short - term reference operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuates. The supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the supply of refined tin is further tightened. The terminal demand is weak. The domestic tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rebounds slightly. The production decreases, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 62,800 - 65,800 yuan/ton [18]. - **Alumina**: The alumina index falls. The spot price in some regions rises slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rises slightly. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. The spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rises slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price follows the cost end. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [21]. 3. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuates strongly. The "anti - involution and capacity - reduction" policy and the expected production reduction in Tangshan lead to the price increase. The inventory of rebar is depleted slowly, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil accumulates slightly. Attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rises. The recent shipment volume and arrival volume decline, and the demand weakens. The inventory changes little. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price rebounds, and the soda ash price is expected to follow the glass to rebound, but the sustainability is limited. The supply of soda ash is still loose, and the inventory pressure is large [27][28]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The manganese silicon price fluctuates, and the ferrosilicon price falls. It is recommended to wait and see before the price breaks through the downward trend line [29]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price falls. The price is still in the downward trend since November 2024. It is necessary to observe whether the price can break through the long - term downward trend line [32]. 4. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price adjusts downward. The bulls focus on the potential supply reduction, while the bears emphasize the weak demand. It is recommended to take a neutral short - term approach and a long - term bullish approach. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [35][38]. - **Crude Oil**: The WTI and Brent crude oil prices fall, while the INE crude oil price rises. The geopolitical risk re - emerges, and the oil price rebounds. It is advisable to wait and see [39]. - **Methanol**: The methanol 09 contract price rises. The inventory is low, and the supply is high. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - buying opportunities on dips [40]. - **Urea**: The urea 09 contract price falls. The supply decreases, and the demand may improve slightly. It is advisable to look for short - term long - buying opportunities on dips [41][42]. - **Styrene**: The spot price of styrene falls, and the futures price rises. The supply increases, and the demand decreases in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate downward [43]. - **PVC**: The PVC09 contract price falls. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure in the future [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The EG09 contract price falls. The supply and demand both decline, and the inventory decreases. The price is expected to be weak in the future, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [45][46]. - **PTA**: The PTA09 contract price falls. The supply may decrease in July, and the demand is under slight pressure. Attention should be paid to long - buying opportunities following PX on dips [47]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX09 contract price falls. The supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory may be depleted in the third quarter. Attention should be paid to long - buying opportunities following crude oil on dips [48]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE futures price rises. The inventory is gradually depleted, and the price is expected to fluctuate [49]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP futures price rises. The supply may increase, and the demand may decline seasonally. The LL - PP spread is expected to widen in the second half of the year [50]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price rises in most areas. The price is expected to fall in the north and remain stable in the south. It is recommended to buy short - term long positions on dips for near - term contracts and sell short on rallies for long - term contracts [52]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is generally stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to reduce short positions on dips or wait and see in the short term and wait for the opportunity to sell short on rallies in the medium term [53]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price fluctuates. The domestic soybean meal price rises slightly. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to try long positions on dips at the low end of the cost range [54][56]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oils and fats price fluctuates. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the supply increase is expected. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy hearing in July [57][59]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuates strongly. The domestic sugar sales are good, but the external market price falls, and the sugar price may continue to decline [60]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuates narrowly. The US cotton planting area is higher than expected, which is negative for the price. The domestic cotton price is supported by the expected Sino - US negotiation, but the de - stocking speed slows down. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [61][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of industrial products is strong, and the prices of most non - ferrous metals show different trends. The price of copper may continue to rise in the short term but the growth rate is expected to slow down; the price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term; the price of lead is generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited; the price of zinc is boosted by the market structure; the price of tin is expected to fluctuate within a certain range; the price of nickel may show a downward trend; the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate and adjust; the price of alumina is recommended to short at high prices; the price of stainless steel is expected to be weak; the price of cast aluminum alloy may be volatile [1][3][4][5][6][7][9][11][12][14] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.67% to $10,010/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,090 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE copper is 80,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M is 9,850 - 10,100 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 2,000 to 93,250 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.03 to 25,000 tons [1] - **Market Situation**: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the inventory is structurally low. However, the consumption toughness of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and China's exports are increasing [1] Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.48% to $2,614/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is 2,580 - 2,640 dollars/ton [3] - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 13,000 to 693,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 28,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.05 to 329,000 tons [3] - **Market Situation**: The domestic "anti - involution competition" expectation warms up the commodity sentiment, and the aluminum inventory is at a low level, supporting the price [3] Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.41% to 17,178 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose by 1 to $2,042/ton [4] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 46,400 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons [4] - **Market Situation**: The supply of primary lead remains high, and the supply of recycled lead is in short supply. The price of lead - acid batteries stops falling and rebounds, but the weak domestic consumption restricts the increase of SHFE lead [4] Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.10% to 22,194 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by 26.5 to $2,713/ton [5] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 6,600 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons [5] - **Market Situation**: The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the TC continues to rise. The LME market zinc Cash - 3S structure rises rapidly, which boosts the zinc price [5] Tin - **Price**: It is expected that the domestic tin price will fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price will fluctuate in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [6] - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 9,266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from last Friday [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell, but the terminal demand is weak, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a stalemate [6] Nickel - **Price**: It is recommended to short at high prices. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [7] - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens, which may lead to a downward trend [7] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC evening quotation was 61,577 yuan, up 0.65%. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory**: The salt factory may face inventory accumulation pressure before the peak season [9] - **Market Situation**: The low - level varieties are tough, and the lithium carbonate price may fluctuate and adjust [9] Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 4.23% to 3,058 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [11] - **Inventory**: The Wednesday futures warehouse receipts were 21,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous day [11] - **Market Situation**: The policy of Guinea may lead to the increase of bauxite price, and the overall commodity market is bullish [11] Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The spot market is expected to remain weak [12] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased to 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 0.25% [12] - **Market Situation**: The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with weak demand and a pattern of oversupply [12] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract closed up 0.3% to 19,885 yuan/ton. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term [14] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by about 200 to 21,000 tons [14] - **Market Situation**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is mainly affected by the aluminum price [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical risks, trade policies, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics across different industries. Traders are advised to make decisions based on specific market conditions and risk tolerance in each sector [4][8][10] - The expectation of supply - side reform has a significant impact on the market, with different industries showing different responses. Some industries may experience price increases due to supply reduction expectations, while others may face challenges due to demand weakness [25][35] Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09%, the ChiNext Index down 0.13%, and the Shanghai 50 up 0.18%. Total trading volume in the two markets was 1377 billion yuan, a decrease of 89 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long positions in IF index futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [2][4][5] - **Treasury Futures**: The government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, with some ultra - long special treasury bonds to be issued in advance in the third quarter. Yields are expected to move downward in the long run, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [7][8] - **Precious Metals**: Weak US ADP employment data strengthens the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. It is expected that the Fed will turn dovish in July and cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunities in silver [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With a marginal easing of US policy expectations and a reduction in trade concerns, copper prices may continue to rise in the short term but at a slower pace due to reduced consumption resilience and increased exports from China. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 80,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: Positive domestic commodity sentiment and low inventory levels support the price of aluminum. It is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton [14] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore supply remains high, and there is a high expectation of zinc ingot production. The LME market's structure also supports the price, but the overall impact on price trends needs further observation [15] - **Lead**: The supply of primary lead is high, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead batteries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the lead price is expected to be relatively strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead may be limited [16] - **Nickel**: The supply - demand surplus of refined nickel persists, and the cost support is weakening. It is advisable to short on rallies, with the short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract being 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [17] - **Tin**: The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, but the terminal demand is weak. The domestic tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Salt factories have a high willingness to produce and hedge, and there may be a pressure to accumulate inventory before the peak season. It is recommended to pay attention to the market atmosphere and positions, with the reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2509 contract being 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton [19] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina futures has risen significantly. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [20] - **Stainless Steel**: Excess capacity clearance expectations have led to a rebound in commodity valuations, but the stainless - steel market is still weak due to the off - season and price adjustments by steel mills [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In the context of a weak off - season, the price of cast aluminum alloy is mainly affected by the cost (aluminum price). It is expected to be volatile in the short term [22] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Rumors of strict production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region have led to a significant increase in steel prices. The inventory of steel products is currently low, and future price trends depend on policies, demand, and cost support [24][25] - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, waiting for further changes in supply - demand and macro - policies [26][27] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass has rebounded due to policy expectations, and soda ash is expected to follow the rebound. However, the medium - term supply of soda ash is still abundant [28] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The market is optimistic due to the expectation of supply - side reform. It is recommended to wait and see, and enterprises with hedging profit opportunities can consider appropriate hedging [29][30][31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon has risen significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, and enterprises with hedging profit opportunities can consider appropriate hedging [32][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is expected to fluctuate and rebound. It is recommended to take a neutral - to - bullish approach and focus on short - term operations [39] - **Crude Oil**: With the resurgence of geopolitical risks, the oil price has started to rebound. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [40] - **Methanol**: The current situation of low inventory and strong spot prices in the methanol market. It is recommended to wait and see due to limited short - term contradictions [41] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is decreasing, and demand may improve slightly. It is advisable to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities on dips [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand [43] - **PVC**: The PVC market is facing strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the future [44][45] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand of ethylene glycol are expected to change, and attention should be paid to short - position opportunities on rallies, while being cautious about the risk of ethane imports [46] - **PTA**: PTA is expected to continue to have a small inventory reduction in July, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [47] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities following crude oil on dips [48][49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The price of PE is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to factors such as inventory and demand [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The price of PP is expected to be bearish in June due to factors such as supply and demand [51] Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The price of pigs may stabilize or continue to rise in some areas. For near - term contracts, short - term long - positions on dips are recommended, while for later - stage contracts, short - positions on rallies are advisable [53] - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to remain stable in many areas. In the short term, it is recommended to reduce short - positions on dips or wait and see, while in the medium term, short - positions on rallies are recommended [54] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean meal is in a multi - factor situation. It is recommended to try long - positions on dips at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end [55][56] - **Oils and Fats**: The US biodiesel policy supports the price of oils and fats, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of sugar may continue to decline due to factors such as weak demand and high import profits [59] - **Cotton**: The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [60][61]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic (PV) industry is facing a critical supply-side reform, with expectations of production cuts and stricter policies to curb below-cost sales, aiming to improve industry profitability and stability [3][4][5]. Industry Summary - A significant decline was observed in the A-share market on June 19, with a total trading volume of 1.28 trillion yuan and over 4,600 stocks falling [1]. - The photovoltaic sector, particularly low-fee ETFs, experienced a downturn, with the leading ETF (516290) dropping by 1.49% [1][6]. - Major companies in the PV sector, such as 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power), 德业股份 (Deye), and 晶澳科技 (JA Solar), reported declines exceeding 3% in their stock prices [6]. Production and Policy Changes - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a meeting focusing on "production limits to maintain prices," indicating a projected reduction in operating rates by 10%-15% in Q3 [2][3]. - A third-party audit group will conduct comprehensive audits to identify evidence of below-cost sales, with various measures planned against non-compliant companies [2][3]. Technological Advancements - The industry is witnessing a push for supply-side reform, with leading companies advocating for market-driven consolidation and technological upgrades to phase out outdated capacities [4][5]. - New technologies, such as TOPCon and perovskite, are gaining attention, with several companies showcasing advancements in efficiency and production capabilities at the SNEC conference [5]. Market Outlook - The PV sector is expected to experience a fundamental recovery, with signs of a potential turning point in market sentiment as production cuts and technological advancements take effect [7]. - The low-fee photovoltaic ETF (516290) is highlighted as a favorable investment option, with management fees significantly lower than the market average [7].