丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 十字路口的黄金：谁来定价，还能涨吗？ ——宏观周脉"博"系列 4 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 年初以来，金价在地缘政治事件的不断催化下持续上涨，也在"沃什冲击"后迎来明显调整。 从需求结构来看，期货持仓、ETF 增持和央行购金共同主导了金价走势，其中期货投资者实际 交割量占比极低，黄金 ETF 更偏向被动反映价格走势，央行购金则更多出于战略配置的考量。 短期来看，"沃什冲击"或已近尾声，缘于缩表或推升期限溢价，导致中长端利率难以下降，并 不符合特朗普的政治利益，而地缘政治摩擦和降息预期，都将对年内金价形成支撑。长期来看， 全球仍处"秩序重构"、"低增长高债务"格局，黄金仍是对抗不确定性的最优资产。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 于博 黄帅 敬成宇 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 十字路口的黄金：谁来定价，还能涨吗？ 2] ...

专题：世界经济论坛年会_2026冬季达沃斯 新浪财经欧洲站站长 郝倩 发自瑞士达沃斯 在 2026 年世界经济论坛冬季年会期间，IMD 商学院院长大卫-巴赫（David Bach） 独家对话新浪财 经，就当前全球政治经济格局、欧洲投资前景、人工智能与能源转型，以及企业领导者应如何应对高度 不确定的时代，分享了他的观察与判断。 "所有人都在这里，可这正说明问题的严峻性。"巴赫对新浪财经表示。谈及今年达沃斯年会的整体氛 围，巴赫表示冬季达沃斯依然是全球关键议题汇聚和碰撞的中心。 但另一方面，达沃斯的"另一条主线"依然在推进——关于能源转型、人工智能，以及如何让全球发展更 加公平的讨论仍在持续。"在喧嚣的政治背景下，这些长期而重要的工作并没有停止，这一点本身就非 常值得关注。" "我是个乐观主义者，但也不是盲目乐观。"巴赫对新浪财经解释说，他的乐观并不是对未来的幻想，而 是基于在这里与众多商业领袖的真实交流。" 他举例指出，许多与会者都提到，可再生能源的成本竞争力已经非常显著，即便未来政府政策支持有所 减弱，能源转型依然具备坚实的经济基础。同时，在人工智能领域，越来越多的案例表明，AI 更可能 提升人类生产力，而非 ...

Group 1 - The market has experienced a significant sell-off, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 1.3% and the Nasdaq falling over 1.7% after a long weekend, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1] - The VIX volatility index has surpassed the 20 mark for the first time since November of the previous year, reflecting increased market anxiety [1] - Concerns are primarily centered around President Trump's stance on Greenland, which has raised fears of structural fractures within NATO and potential new trade conflicts [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent sell-off, the average volatility in U.S. debt, equity, and dollar markets remains at its lowest level since at least 1990, suggesting a prior period of calm before the recent turbulence [2] - The rise in Japanese 40-year bond yields above 4% and a 6 basis point increase in U.S. 10-year bond yields to 4.29% have contributed to global market instability [2] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff plans and the potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair has further eroded market confidence, leading to a downgrade in European stock market allocation recommendations by Citigroup [2] Group 3 - Investor sentiment had previously been optimistic, with cash holdings at historical lows and a bullish indicator entering the "extremely bullish" zone, yet nearly half of respondents reported no protection against a significant market downturn [3] - Jefferies strategists anticipate a potential agreement regarding Greenland's sovereignty, but expect market volatility to remain high during the negotiation process [3] - Concerns persist regarding Trump's unpredictable approach to new threats, with historical patterns suggesting he may initially escalate tensions before returning to negotiations, which could continue to impact market confidence [3]

Core Viewpoint - Germany plans to finance €1 trillion in debt by 2026 to boost infrastructure and defense, aiming to revive the struggling European economy, but the effectiveness of this plan remains uncertain amid structural weaknesses and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Supporters believe that increased investment in infrastructure and defense will stimulate domestic demand and drive economic recovery, with some economists suggesting this is crucial for Germany to escape its recession since late 2022 [1][3]. - The Eurozone's economic growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in 2026, with a slight recovery to 1.4% in 2027, indicating a sluggish economic environment [1]. - The IFO Institute has downgraded Germany's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 0.8%, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on EU goods as a contributing factor to further economic slowdown [3]. Group 2: Structural Challenges - Germany faces significant challenges, including declining labor potential, insufficient business investment confidence, and weak productivity growth, which could threaten its economic competitiveness without structural reforms [3]. - France, as another key EU economy, is also struggling with high debt levels, projected to reach 130% of GDP by 2030, raising doubts about the effectiveness of Germany's stimulus plan in addressing broader EU economic issues [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Trade Concerns - The increasing trade barriers and U.S. tariffs are expected to create uncertainty in Europe's economic outlook, complicating the potential success of Germany's fiscal stimulus [7]. - The interplay between fiscal stimulus and geopolitical tensions may lead to a prolonged struggle without clear short-term victories, raising questions about the sustainability of the proposed economic revival [7].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (01138) has seen a significant increase, attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting oil tanker operations in international waters near Venezuela [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - China Cosco Shipping Energy's stock rose over 5% in the afternoon trading session, with a current price of 10.08 HKD and a trading volume of 136 million HKD [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The U.S. Coast Guard is intercepting oil tankers, including the "Bella 1," in international waters near Venezuela, marking the third such interception recently [1]. - Morgan Stanley's research indicates that while concerns about shipping disruptions may gradually diminish, oil tanker profitability is expected to remain resilient next year [1]. - Over 20% of the global oil tanker fleet is over 20 years old, with many vessels concentrated in the "shadow fleet," limiting their ability to participate in compliant trade [1]. - Geopolitical tensions are driving up demand for oil transportation, with approximately 18% to 20% of the global fleet engaged in non-compliant transportation due to sanctions on vessels from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela [1].

Core Viewpoint - Toyota Motor Corporation (TM.US) reported an increase in October sales, driven by strong demand in the U.S. market, which offset declines in China and Japan [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Global sales for the Toyota group, including Daihatsu and Hino, rose by 3% year-on-year, reaching 1 million units, marking a record high for October [1] - Sales of Toyota and Lexus brands in the U.S. increased by 12%, while sales in China decreased by 6.6% and in Japan by 4.2% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite facing tariff pressures from U.S. President Trump's import duties on vehicles and parts, Toyota is increasingly relying on the North American market [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and Japan, may reshape Toyota's global sales landscape [1] Group 3: Financial Outlook - Toyota raised its full-year operating profit forecast to 3.4 trillion yen, despite estimating a loss of 1.4 trillion yen due to a 15% tariff policy [1] - This adjustment follows a downward revision of expectations in August [1] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Sales - Global sales of Toyota's pure electric vehicles surged by 74% year-on-year, reaching 18,322 units [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Dutch government's actions against the semiconductor company Nexperia, a subsidiary of Wingtech Technology, highlighting the unintended consequences for both the Netherlands and its European allies in the semiconductor supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Dutch Government Actions - The Dutch government imposed dual restrictions on Nexperia, which aligns with U.S. export control measures, raising suspicions of coordinated efforts against Chinese assets [1][2]. - Following the restrictions, China retaliated with export controls, affecting major automotive manufacturers in Europe, including Honda, Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes, leading to potential production halts [2][3]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - Nexperia's operational structure includes significant manufacturing capabilities in China, with 70%-80% of its production capacity located there, particularly in Dongguan, which handles 70% of global shipments [3][6]. - The article emphasizes that despite the Dutch restrictions, the short-term impact on Nexperia's operations may be mitigated by domestic Chinese semiconductor manufacturers like SMIC and Huahong, which can cover 80% of specifications [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The actions of the Dutch government are seen as part of a broader strategy by the U.S. and its allies to curb China's semiconductor industry, with the Netherlands acting as a key player in this geopolitical landscape [7][9]. - The article suggests that the long-standing global division of labor led by the U.S. and Europe is collapsing, with China beginning to reshape the rules of the semiconductor game [10][12]. Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to continue affecting companies like Nexperia, with the potential for further restrictions and competitive dynamics in the semiconductor sector [12][13]. - The article concludes that the current situation serves as a warning to smaller nations about the shifting balance of power in the semiconductor industry and the need for strategic adjustments [13].

Core Insights - Despite ongoing pressure from the United States, Russia remains China's largest crude oil supplier as of September 2023, with imports increasing by 4.3% month-on-month to 8.287 million tons, valued at $4.066 billion [1] - China has halted crude oil purchases from the U.S. since June, although the U.S. share in China's total imports was already minimal [1] - The progress of the China-Russia cross-border pipeline project is enhancing cooperation between the two nations, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.9% in liquefied natural gas imports from Russia in September [1] - China's crude oil imports from Indonesia surged approximately 73 times year-on-year in September, while imports from Brazil increased by 156%, diversifying China's energy supply sources [1] Geopolitical Context - The increase in crude oil purchases from Russia is seen as a defiant stance by China ahead of further negotiations with the U.S. [3] - Former U.S. President Trump has intensified efforts to curb Russian energy revenues, urging India to stop purchasing Russian crude and suggesting that China should follow suit [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary has also warned Japan to terminate energy imports from Russia, indicating a broader strategy to isolate Russian energy sources [3] China's Position - The Chinese Foreign Ministry has reiterated that its energy cooperation with Russia is legitimate and normal, criticizing U.S. actions as unilateral bullying and economic coercion [4] - China maintains a neutral stance on the Ukraine crisis and opposes U.S. sanctions, asserting that it will take necessary measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests if harmed [4]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline on Friday, driven by renewed investor concerns over geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties, with the technology sector leading the drop [1] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged to its highest level since mid-June, indicating a sharp increase in market fear [1] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 878.82 points, closing at 45479.60, a decrease of 1.9% - The S&P 500 index dropped by 182.6 points, ending at 6552.51, down 2.71% - The Nasdaq Composite Index declined by 820.2 points, closing at 22204.43, a drop of 3.56% - Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their largest single-day declines since April [1] Weekly Performance - For the week, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.43%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.73%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.53% [2] - Major technology stocks saw significant declines, with Broadcom down 5.9%, Tesla down 5.1%, Amazon down approximately 5%, Nvidia down 4.9%, Meta down 3.9%, Apple down 3.45%, Microsoft down 2.2%, and Alphabet down 1.95% [2] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector was notably weak, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping by 6.3% [3] - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. faced pressure, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declining by 6.1%, including Alibaba down over 8%, Pinduoduo down over 5%, JD.com down over 6%, Baidu down over 8%, Li Auto down over 3%, NIO down over 10%, Xpeng down over 8%, Bilibili down over 9%, and Futu Holdings down over 11% [3] Bond Market - In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell by 9.1 basis points to 4.057%, the lowest in over a month, while the yield on the 2-year note decreased by 7.5 basis points to 3.512% [3] Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for October remained at historically low levels, with inflation and employment outlooks continuing to suppress consumer willingness to spend [3] - Federal Reserve officials indicated that future monetary policy adjustments should proceed with a "cautious and gradual" approach, with potential rate adjustments of 25 basis points [3] Commodity Market - The commodity market saw increased volatility, with international oil prices significantly declining; WTI crude oil futures fell by 4.24% to $58.90 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures dropped by 3.82% to $62.73 per barrel [4] - In contrast, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.70%, closing at $4000.4 per ounce, supported by safe-haven buying [5]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline on Friday, driven by renewed concerns over geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty, with the technology sector leading the drop [2] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged to its highest level since mid-June, indicating a sharp increase in market fear [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 878.82 points, closing at 45479.60 points, a drop of 1.9%; the S&P 500 Index decreased by 182.6 points to 6552.51 points, down 2.71%; and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 820.2 points to 22204.43 points, a decline of 3.56% [2] Weekly Performance - For the week, the S&P 500 Index declined by 2.43%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.73%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.53% [2] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks saw widespread declines, with Broadcom down 5.9%, Tesla down 5.1%, Amazon down approximately 5%, Nvidia down 4.9%, Meta down 3.9%, Apple down 3.45%, Microsoft down 2.2%, and Alphabet down 1.95% [2] - The semiconductor sector was particularly hard hit, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping by 6.3% [3] - Chinese concept stocks also faced pressure, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 6.1%, including Alibaba down over 8%, Pinduoduo down over 5%, JD.com down over 6%, and NIO down over 10% [3] Bond Market - In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell by 9.1 basis points to 4.057%, the lowest in over a month; the two-year Treasury yield decreased by 7.5 basis points to 3.512% [3] Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for October remains at historically low levels, with inflation and employment outlooks dampening consumer sentiment [4] - Federal Reserve officials indicated that future monetary policy adjustments should proceed with a "cautious and gradual" approach, with potential rate changes of 25 basis points [4] - Commodity markets experienced increased volatility, with international oil prices significantly declining; WTI crude oil futures fell by 4.24% to $58.90 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures dropped by 3.82% to $62.73 per barrel [4] - Gold futures rose by 0.70% to $4000.4 per ounce, supported by safe-haven buying [4]