Core Viewpoint - The global green transition is facing challenges due to the dual impact of demand and supply side factors, particularly influenced by the Trump 2.0 energy policy, which may lead to a 6.3%-8% decline in cumulative global green product demand from 2025 to 2030 compared to baseline scenarios [2][3]. Group 1: Global Green Competition - The competition in the global green economy is characterized by two main aspects: the competition between fossil and green economies, and the competition among countries in the green industry [4][5]. - The Biden administration's policies are expected to accelerate the re-industrialization process in the U.S., posing new challenges for China's green industry [3][5]. Group 2: Global Green Demand - The Trump 2.0 policy is projected to directly impact U.S. green demand, which constitutes 5%-25% of global demand, potentially leading to a 17% decline in U.S. wind, solar, and storage demand by 2030 [8][11]. - The external spillover effects of the Trump 2.0 policy may weaken other countries' support for clean energy, particularly in nations with high fossil fuel self-sufficiency [11][14]. Group 3: Challenges for China's Green Supply - China's green industry faces increased trade barriers, including tariffs and non-tariff barriers, which may hinder its export capabilities [24][25]. - Investment restrictions in developed economies are tightening, making it more difficult for Chinese companies to invest abroad, particularly in the green technology sector [26][27]. Group 4: Impact on Key Green Industries - The negative impact on China's exports is expected to be most severe for electric vehicles, followed by lithium batteries and solar products, due to tariffs and declining demand in key markets [32][33]. - The shift from mergers and acquisitions to joint ventures and technology licensing may increase the risk of technology spillover, affecting China's competitive edge in green technologies [35][36]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - To stimulate domestic green demand, policies should focus on enhancing the consumption of green products and improving the infrastructure for renewable energy integration [44][45]. - Expanding regional trade cooperation and promoting green exports to developing countries can help mitigate the impact of geopolitical tensions [45][46]. - Strengthening intellectual property protection is crucial for maintaining China's leadership in green technology innovation [47].

▲中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长彭文生 在下午的分会场，研讨会邀请了来自芝加哥大学、复旦大学、国家金融与发展实验室、香港大学、国际能源转型学会、麻省理工学院、荷兰瓦赫宁根大 学、尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院、中国社会科学院、南京大学、哈萨克斯坦管理经济战略研究院、北京大学、耶鲁大学与来自OSL集团、VDX、标普、张 ▲中金公司董事长、管理委员会主席陈亮 本次研讨会邀请到近30名国内外知名学者与企业代表，围绕地缘经济新格局与新趋势背景下的数字金融、能源转型、战略产业与科技发展等核心议题展开 深入讨论，深度解析地缘经济重构下的风险与机遇，助力构建更具韧性的全球金融与产业新秩序，共吸引来自政府相关部门、产业界、学术界、投资界等 近380名嘉宾现场参会。 9月16日，中金公司2025地缘经济主题研讨会在北京成功举办。会议以"地缘经济新变局"为主题，设全体大会和四场主题分会，中金公司董事长、管理委 员会主席陈亮致开幕辞。 在上午的全体大会中，中国人民银行原行长周小川，美国哥伦比亚大学教授兼可持续发展中心主任Jeffrey D. Sachs，香港中文大学（深圳）公共政策学院 院长、前海国际事务研究院院长郑永 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of international competition from traditional geopolitical dynamics to geoeconomic strategies, emphasizing the strategic use of economic tools to influence global relations and decision-making among nations [2][3]. Group 1: Transition from Globalization to Geoeconomic Competition - The rise of geoeconomics reflects a shift where economic tools are increasingly used to achieve national strategic goals, particularly evident in U.S. policies under the "America First" framework [4][6]. - Economic sanctions and trade barriers have become more prevalent, with a notable increase in their use since 2017, surpassing traditional military interventions [4][6]. - Geoeconomics provides a new analytical perspective that integrates international relations and economics, focusing on the strategic use of economic tools [3][6]. Group 2: Asymmetric Dependence in Economic Globalization - The article highlights that globalization has led to unprecedented economic interdependence among nations, characterized by asymmetrical dependencies that create opportunities for economic competition [7][10]. - The U.S. maintains a dominant position in the global financial system, leveraging its control over the dollar to influence international economic relations [10][12]. - Emerging economies, particularly China, are increasingly becoming critical players in global supply chains, reducing their dependency on traditional economic powers [18][19]. Group 3: Characteristics of Geoeconomic Competition - Geoeconomic competition is likely to become a new norm due to the changing nature of international conflicts, where economic tools are preferred over military options [19][20]. - Economic measures are flexible and controllable, allowing governments to adjust their strategies without escalating conflicts unnecessarily [19][20]. - The effectiveness of geoeconomic tools is contingent upon the nature of the issues at stake and the ability of nations to adapt to changing dependencies [20][21]. Group 4: Economic Tools and Their Classification - Economic tools in geoeconomic competition can be categorized based on strategic intent (offensive vs. defensive) and intervention methods (inducement vs. sanctions) [22][23]. - The classification framework helps in understanding how nations utilize economic resources to influence others' behaviors or capabilities [22][23]. Group 5: Sources of Economic Power - Economic power is derived from a nation's resource endowment and its control over key nodes in the global economic network [27][30]. - A country's ability to exert economic pressure is fundamentally linked to its economic endowment, including natural resources, capital, and technological capabilities [28][30]. - Control over critical nodes in global supply chains enhances a nation's influence, allowing it to leverage its economic advantages effectively [30][31]. Group 6: Quantitative Analysis of Geoeconomic Power - The article proposes a framework for quantifying economic power based on input-output networks, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economies [32][33]. - Key industries and their roles in the global economy are analyzed to identify critical nodes that hold significant leverage in geoeconomic competition [33][36]. - The evolution of supply and demand networks from 2000 to 2023 illustrates shifts in economic power dynamics among major economies, particularly the rise of China as a regional center [44][47].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant changes in the global macroeconomic landscape and how China can seize new opportunities while facing challenges in this evolving environment [2][4]. - The rise of geopolitical economics and the trend of global fragmentation are identified as two important phenomena impacting the global economy [2][4]. - China's share in global exports continues to rise, influencing its foreign direct investment (FDI) strategies, particularly towards countries like South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam [4][6]. Group 2 - The concept of "centrality" in global supply chains is discussed, highlighting the importance of connectivity with key partners and China's pivotal role in manufacturing [4][5]. - The article notes that the future of trade is shifting from traditional goods to service trade, with China maintaining a central position in the global manufacturing chain [4][7]. - Companies that master intellectual property and service export capabilities are deemed to have the strongest resilience against shocks [7]. Group 3 - The article suggests that diversification of risks at both enterprise and national levels is essential in the context of rising geopolitical economics [6][7]. - It advocates for a transition from "Made in China" to "Intelligent Manufacturing in China," emphasizing the need for technological upgrades and self-sufficiency in critical sectors [7]. - The future competitive focus will shift towards defining technological pathways, setting standards, controlling financial channels, and gaining support, rather than merely increasing production [7].

Group 1 - The trade volume between China and Europe is nearly 800 billion euros annually, covering a wide range of sectors from consumer goods to industrial equipment [5] - Major German automotive companies generate over 30% of their global revenue from sales in China, indicating a significant dependency on the Chinese market [5] - If Europe follows the U.S. in imposing new sanctions on China, it could lead to a 1.2% decline in GDP for Europe next year, exacerbating the economic recovery from the energy crisis [5] Group 2 - The EU is experiencing severe internal divisions regarding its economic strategy towards China, as evidenced by differing stances on tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [5] - Countries like France, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Ireland supported tariffs, while Germany and Hungary opposed them, highlighting varying levels of economic dependence on China [5] - The geopolitical tension and potential trade friction initiated by Trump's commands could lead to a fragmented global supply chain, impacting technological advancements in sectors like renewable energy and artificial intelligence [9] Group 3 - China's Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into EU-origin pork and related products, implementing temporary anti-dumping measures with deposit rates ranging from 15.6% to 62.4% starting September 10 [9] - The EU is at a critical juncture, needing to decide whether to continue relying on external powers or to pursue strategic autonomy in its foreign, security, and economic policies [11] - The decisions made by the EU will not only affect its own prosperity and stability but will also significantly shape the future global landscape [11]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen defended the decision to impose tariffs on India while not sanctioning China, highlighting India's significant increase in oil imports from Russia, which rose from less than 1% before 2022 to 42% [2] - Bessen pointed out that India has profited $16 billion from reselling Russian oil, labeling it as "unacceptable opportunistic arbitrage" [2] - In 2024, India imported $53 billion worth of oil and crude from Russia, while China's imports were higher at $62.6 billion, but this aligns with China's larger economic scale [2] Group 2 - China is currently the largest buyer of Russian crude oil, importing 57.71 million tons valued at $29.48 billion from January to July 2024, which constitutes only 13.5% of China's total imports [2] - The trade volume between the U.S. and China far exceeds that of the U.S. and India, with U.S.-India trade estimated at $128.8 billion in 2024 compared to several hundred billion for U.S.-China trade, leading to a cautious approach from the U.S. regarding sanctions on China [4] - India's government temporarily exempted cotton import tariffs to support its textile industry against U.S. tariffs, while Chinese refineries increased their Russian oil purchases, with Urals crude imports nearly doubling to 75,000 barrels per day in August [4] Group 3 - Bessen's remarks indicate that in the balance of geopolitical economics, power remains the most significant leverage, suggesting that China's strength influenced the U.S. decision-making process [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the shift in global trade dynamics, with China becoming the largest bilateral trading partner for almost all countries, surpassing the US [3][5][17] - The US's unilateral tariff policies, particularly under the Trump administration, have led to significant trade disruptions, with tariffs as high as 35% imposed on allies, while China has opened its market to 53 African countries with zero tariffs [5][13][19] - The imposition of tariffs has resulted in a decline in exports from US allies, such as Japan and South Korea, with Japan's exports to the US dropping by 11.4% and South Korea's by 8.1% [9][11][17] Group 2 - China's strategic response to US tariffs includes implementing zero tariffs for African nations, significantly boosting imports of African goods, such as coffee, which saw a 129.5% increase in the first half of the year [13][15][21] - The US's trade policies have adversely affected American companies, with Tesla facing increased costs due to tariffs on Chinese auto parts, leading to price hikes and job cuts [19][25] - European nations are reevaluating their security frameworks and trade relationships with the US, as seen in the coordination of nuclear arsenals between the UK and France, indicating a shift towards independent security strategies [11][25]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Mid-term Investment Strategy Conference held by CICC focused on the theme of "Resilience and Reconstruction," discussing key topics such as the outlook for the Chinese economy, global asset trends, and advancements in AI and high-end manufacturing [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Economics - CICC's Chief Economist, Peng Wensheng, highlighted the shift towards geopolitical economics, emphasizing that the past 40 years of globalization and financialization are being reevaluated due to rising inflation and wealth disparity [6][7]. - The macro impacts of geopolitical competition include increased supply constraints and the rising importance of real assets, with China holding unique advantages in green industries and AI [6][7]. Group 2: Monetary Order Reconstruction - Chief Strategy Analyst, Miao Yanliang, noted that the global monetary order is accelerating towards diversification and fragmentation, which may lead to significant inflows into Hong Kong stocks [10]. - The correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is at a historical high, suggesting potential spillover effects if Hong Kong stocks rise [10]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Chief Macro Analyst, Zhang Wenlang, observed that while GDP growth is improving, inflation remains weak, indicating a "quasi-balance" in the labor market [12]. - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue to narrow, with structural highlights anticipated in the manufacturing sector [12]. Group 4: U.S. Economic Policy - U.S. Macro Chief Economist, Liu Zhengning, discussed the implications of U.S. tariff policies, predicting a short-term stagflation effect and a shift towards functional fiscal policies to stabilize the economy [15]. Group 5: A-share Market Insights - Domestic Strategy Chief Analyst, Li Qiusuo, indicated that the A-share market has shown resilience, with expectations for a "steady then rising" trend in the second half of 2025, contingent on supportive fiscal policies [16][17]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on certainty in uncertain environments, with themes such as mergers and acquisitions, AI, and high-dividend sectors [17]. Group 6: Global Market Trends - Overseas Strategy Chief Analyst, Liu Gang, noted a growing global consensus on "de-dollarization," although the extent may not meet expectations [18]. - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience structural opportunities, with recommendations to focus on dividends, technology, and new consumption sectors [18]. Group 7: Digital Financial Services - CICC is enhancing its digital service capabilities through the "CICC Insight" platform, which provides comprehensive research and data services to institutional investors [19][20]. - The company aims to leverage financial technology to improve research capabilities and deliver valuable investment insights [20].

Core Viewpoint - Global economic uncertainty is increasing, yet foreign institutions are raising their economic growth forecasts and stock index targets for China, highlighting a resilient outlook for the Chinese economy and assets [4] Group 1: Economic Resilience - The term "resilience" has been frequently used by various foreign investment institutions to describe the performance of the Chinese economy [4] - Companies across different sectors, including state-owned, private, and foreign enterprises, are showing a clearer and more optimistic strategic direction compared to the previous year [4][19] - The adaptability and innovative spirit of Chinese enterprises are crucial for overcoming challenges and discovering new growth points, especially in active economic regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta [20] Group 2: Strategic Planning - Companies are increasingly focusing on short-term, medium-term, and long-term strategic goals, with many now developing five-year economic plans [7][19] - Short-term goals often involve cost reduction and quick profitability, while medium-term goals include business adjustments and organizational changes to adapt to future developments [7] - Long-term planning may involve seeking new growth avenues, including international expansion [8] Group 3: International Expansion - The trend of Chinese companies going abroad has shifted from an optional strategy to a necessary one, with Southeast Asia being a popular destination [9] - Companies are advised to conduct thorough market analysis before entering new regions to avoid pitfalls and unnecessary investments [11] - A comprehensive evaluation of costs, logistics, manufacturing, sales, and taxation is essential for successful overseas expansion [11] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The North Asia region, particularly China, is seen as a key area for growth, with a shift from prioritizing speed of economic development to focusing on quality [12][13] - The ongoing economic transformation in China is driven by three main factors: economic transition, digitalization, and geopolitical dynamics [13] - The rise of artificial intelligence and digital technologies is providing new momentum for innovation and development within Chinese enterprises [19]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is increasingly focusing on the Asia-Pacific region to strengthen economic cooperation and mitigate internal and external risks amid changing transatlantic relations and U.S. tariff pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Cooperation and Strategic Shift - The EU has historically prioritized economic cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region, as evidenced by official documents dating back to 1994 and subsequent strategies emphasizing connectivity and trade agreements [2][3]. - The EU's renewed focus on Asia is driven by the need to seek opportunities and mitigate risks in a volatile geopolitical landscape [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Potential of the Asia-Pacific Region - The Asia-Pacific region accounts for approximately 30% of global GDP, making it a highly attractive market due to its economic vitality and potential for growth [3]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Asia's GDP will grow by 4.6% in 2024, with growth rates of 3.9% and 4% expected in 2025 and 2026, respectively, significantly outpacing global averages [3]. - The region's trade dynamics are also robust, with actual export and import growth rates of 3.4% and 3.6% in 2024, compared to global rates of 1.8% and 2.2% [3]. Group 3: Current Trade Relations and Challenges - The EU's presence in the Asia-Pacific trade landscape is limited, accounting for only 8% of ASEAN's external trade, indicating a relative withdrawal over the past two decades [4]. - The rise of U.S. protectionism has increased the need for the EU and Asia-Pacific countries to strengthen their economic ties and diversify partnerships [4]. - Strengthening cooperation between the EU and Asia-Pacific can reinforce the traditional consensus on supporting a multilateral trade system and enhance joint efforts in reforming international trade rules [4]. Group 4: Existing Agreements and Future Prospects - The EU has established free trade agreements with several Asia-Pacific countries and has reached digital partnership agreements with Japan and Singapore, indicating a foundation for deeper cooperation [5]. - A pragmatic approach to economic development and addressing mutual concerns in regulatory standards and market access could accelerate the EU's vision of connecting Europe and Asia [5].