以下文章来源于兴证全球基金 ，作者与您相伴的 兴证全球基金 . 从我们的经验来看，主动基金经理很多都是行业研究员出身，对行业的了解比我们深，他们做行业轮 动的成功概率都不高，我们作为 FOF 或者投顾的管理人，难度就更高了。相对来说，我们会在我们 的研究比市场平均认知水平更高一点的领域，去争取创造超额，要在一个我们不擅长并且又很卷的领 域去创造超额，胜率比较低。推而广之，我觉得可能大部分普通投资者也不太适合去做行业轮动，因 为我们面临的困境，大多数投资者也是类似的。 投资复盘：你在哪里赚到了钱，在哪里亏了钱？ 文子： 我最近做了一些复盘，发现我真正赚到钱的投资其实只有两笔。第一笔是FOF ，因为我 们公司的 FOF 管理理念是 "追求赚到比平均好一点点的钱"，这个理念特别打动我，于是从 2020 年开始，我每周定投 FOF ，金额不大，但坚持几年下来，已经默默积累成了一笔可观的资产，而且 在2021 年市场波动很大的时候，因为 FOF 相对波动比较小，我也没有想过去减仓。虽然收益率不 算惊人，但它反而成为了我投资收益里贡献很大的一部分。 第二笔是今年 4 月买入的一笔投资，当时市场主流指数跌幅都很大，我觉得这 ...

近期市场情绪与风险偏好持续回升，股指波动变大，投资者想买又怕摔的情绪较之过去更为明显。我们邀 请中泰资管副总经理姜诚做客直播间，并对直播内容整理如下： 主播 基金经理跨越一轮牛熊周期战胜市场不算特别难，但每年战胜市场就很难。先请姜总复盘，如何评 价自己过去一年的投资成绩？ 姜诚 过去5年我们业绩的表现还不错。过去一年，如果与同行相比，我们的排名可能没那么靠前，但仍有 一定的绝对回报。我们在不断梳理组合内的具体标的，发现与买入初衷相比没有特别多的偏差，后续就基 本面的演进而言，有变得更好的，也有稍微艰难一些的因素。整体而言，我们对于组合过去一年表现出来 的状态比较满意。 从投资者角度出发，如果大家更倾向于用一段时间内的收益率来判断，那么对于我们表现的评价参考排名 即可。但从我个人角度看，我觉得还是可以及格的。如果给过去一年打分，我觉得有六七十分还是可以有 的。 展望未来，以目前组合的状态来看，我们的长期目标没有变。 我们依然希望以穿越牛熊周期的视角为持 有人带来相对稳健且超越市场的回报， 无论幅度大小。作为主动管理型基金经理，我们仍希望赚取超额 收益，目前这一目标没有调整，我们对于实现这一目标的信心也依然在。如 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：管我财 来源：雪球 @管我财 是雪球人气用户， 资深投资研究达人， 相信低估逆向平均赢的价值投资观。在股市驰骋10余年，穿越牛熊。 以下是其投资观点总结分享： 底部顶部识别 1. 一大片的公司股东不断增持+公司回购+私有化收购 ， 一般都是底 。 即便是08年底最疯狂的时刻 ， 也就三四十家公司回购而已 。 相信价值 吧 ！ 8. 多数的傻瓜决定顶部 ， 少数的傻瓜决定㡳部 ， 成交量大幅减少甚至干涸 ， 是最有力的见底的指标 。 罗伯逊致投资人的信当中提出五个特征来说明市场触底 1. 回购占已发行股本的10% ， 占流通股的16% 。 6. 这样的观察是价值投资者们值得学习的 ， 全面而细致的市场观察 。 2. 当你发现满街都是便宜货 ， 实在太多选择 ， 不知道该买哪些时 ， 基本上你选对时了 。 3. 港股里 ， 成交量低迷时往往才是真正的底 ， 都跌到没什么人想卖了 。 4. 别人悲观时你必须悲观 ， 别人绝望时你才可以贪婪 ； 别人乐观时你必须比任何人更乐观 ， 别人贪婪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around a bull market is increasing as the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses 3700 points, but stock selection remains challenging due to the need for safety margins and rapid industry rotation [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - Guangfa JiYuan Bond Fund has achieved positive annual returns in all eight years since its establishment in January 2017, with a maximum drawdown controlled within 6%, significantly better than the average of 10.88% for similar funds [2] - The fund's five-year return rate is 25.37%, ranking in the top 15% of its category [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The fund manager, Liu Zhihui, employs a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches for asset allocation, maintaining a stable stock investment ratio of 15%-20% over the past five years [2] - In bond investments, the focus is primarily on high-grade credit bonds, with an average duration of less than three years, but can be extended during favorable market conditions [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Liu Zhihui holds a relatively optimistic view for the A-share market in the second half of the year, believing it is transitioning from "strong reality, weak expectations" to positive expectations, which is beneficial for large-cap stocks [3] - The preferred allocation strategy includes a balanced approach, focusing on sectors such as overseas expansion, resources, large financials, leading manufacturing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, selecting competitive companies with market share expansion and valuation protection [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is suitable for value investing, where stock prices serve as an external variable to assess potential returns rather than a variable to predict [2][25][26]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investment Strategy - As of August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a nearly ten-year high, closing at 3728.03 points, with the A-share market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan, marking a historical peak [2]. - The current stock prices are not as cheap as they were ten months ago, and some stocks have seen a decline in implied returns. However, the Chinese stock market is not in a bubble state when viewed alongside the Hong Kong market [2][55][56]. - The investment strategy emphasizes patience and a different perspective, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term market fluctuations [8][16][39]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Manager Insights - The fund managed by Jiang Cheng has shown a year-to-date return of 6.03%, with a three-year return of 23.77% and a five-year return of 74.68%, indicating stable performance [3]. - Jiang Cheng maintains a conservative approach, focusing on traditional sectors such as banking, chemicals, construction, and real estate, with a long-term investment horizon [3][5]. - The investment philosophy includes a significant emphasis on understanding the underlying value of assets and avoiding value traps, dedicating 20% of research efforts to identifying potential pitfalls in existing holdings [20][22]. Group 3: Value Investment Principles - Value investing is defined as an investment behavior aimed at acquiring asset value, with cash returns being the primary measure of value creation [23]. - The market's price volatility can create more opportunities for value investing, as it allows investors to buy undervalued assets [25][26]. - Safety margin is viewed as a conservative attitude, acknowledging the unpredictability of future market conditions and focusing on protecting against adverse scenarios [18][19]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Long-term Outlook - The current market environment presents both pressures and opportunities, with a need for caution at the micro level while maintaining optimism at the macro level [58][59]. - Continuous learning and adaptation to new market dynamics are essential for identifying long-term investment opportunities, especially in emerging sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [40][43][45]. - The investment approach encourages a focus on long-term goals and the ability to tolerate short-term market fluctuations without being overly influenced by them [52][63].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the current valuation of the technology sector is at approximately 50% or below historical levels, with certain segments like semiconductor materials and emerging technologies showing higher valuations compared to their three-year history [1] - The Pacific Securities report indicates that the PB-ROE values for the Sci-Tech 50 and growth style are the lowest, suggesting that investors are paying the least growth premium for these sectors, which implies a higher margin of safety [1] - Recent performance shows that industries such as pharmaceuticals, communications, and media have seen significant gains, while the computer industry has experienced the largest downward adjustment in profit expectations [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech 100 ETF (588120) tracks the Sci-Tech 100 Index (000698), which includes 100 securities with larger market capitalization and better liquidity from the Sci-Tech board, covering strategic emerging industries like new-generation information technology and biomedicine [1] - The index can experience daily fluctuations of up to 20%, reflecting the overall performance of leading technology innovation companies in the Sci-Tech board market [1] - Investors without stock accounts are advised to consider the Guotai CSI Sci-Tech 100 ETF Initiated Link A (019866) and Guotai CSI Sci-Tech 100 ETF Initiated Link C (019867) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the relationship between Return on Equity (ROE) and investment returns is not as straightforward as often perceived, emphasizing the importance of understanding the nuances of ROE in evaluating companies [3][10]. Group 1: ROE and Net Profit Growth Rate - ROE is defined as net profit divided by shareholder equity, and if a company does not pay dividends, a long-term ROE of 20% implies a net profit annual growth rate of 20% [5]. - In cases where companies distribute dividends, long-term ROE can exceed net profit growth rate, especially if a company pays out 100% of its profits [5]. Group 2: Understanding ROE and Investment Returns - For a company like Kweichow Moutai with a PE ratio of 20 and a dividend yield of 5%, if net profit growth is 0%, the long-term ROE remains at 36%, but investment returns will not exceed 5% [7]. - If net profit growth is 10%, the investment return can be 15%, indicating that investment returns do not necessarily correlate with ROE [8]. Group 3: Importance of ROE - High historical ROE indicates strong past profitability and potential for future growth, suggesting that companies with a history of high ROE are likely to remain strong performers [10]. - The correct use of ROE is to filter for quality companies and analyze their profitability logic rather than using it solely for valuation and return calculations [11]. Group 4: Insights - Long-term returns are derived from initial dividend yield plus long-term growth rate, emphasizing the importance of company quality for stable dividends and growth [13]. - The focus should be on long-term performance, as short-term factors can significantly impact company performance and valuation [14]. - Emphasizing long-term growth is crucial, as it is the primary source of returns, with low growth leading to low returns [16]. - Safety margins are important, as future growth rates are uncertain, while current dividends are more predictable [16]. - The significance of dividend reinvestment is highlighted, as a high initial yield can still provide meaningful returns even with zero growth [16]. - The article advises against unrealistic expectations of rapid wealth accumulation, noting that consistently high growth companies are rare [16]. - A good investment idea held for a long time can yield substantial returns, and frequent trading may lead to missed opportunities [16].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看专栏 ） 从20世纪50年代投身投资领域开始，巴菲特就缔造了一段难以复制的神话，收获了"股神""投资之神""奥马哈的先知"等诸多美誉，更是全球唯一一 位仅靠投资便登顶世界首富的人。今天，让我们一同走进巴菲特的世界，探寻他的成功密码。 前言： 8月2日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司披露，其对食品巨头 卡夫亨氏 的投资进行了高达38亿美元的资产减记。这使得该项投资的账面价值骤降至 84亿美元，较2017年底的逾170亿美元大幅缩水。 账面价值的暴跌似乎坐实了外界对该交易的悲观评价。然而，英国《金融时报》的分析揭示了一个关键转折：得益于巴菲特在交易谈判中争取到的精妙 条款，即便在这场公认的投资"滑铁卢"中，他实际上已悄然实现了近 60%的盈利 。当市场还在为表面的巨额亏损叹息时，股神早已凭借交易架构的优 势锁定了丰厚回报。 #全球投资名人堂 沃伦·巴菲特 私募排排网专栏 一项投资在短短几年内账面价值惨遭"腰斩"，这通常标志着彻底的失败——但主角若是沃伦·巴菲特，结局往往出人意料。 目录导览 01、家庭背景与成长经历 02、早期投资经历与创业之路 03、伯克希 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has completed the transfer of his remaining shares and resigned from the board, marking the end of a management transition that began in 2022 [1][2]. Group 1: Management Transition - The management transition process at Bridgewater was initiated by Dalio in 2010, but it faced challenges, with seven individuals serving as either sole or co-CEOs over the next decade [1]. - Bob Prince and Greg Jensen have emerged as the current co-CIOs and are now the most important shareholders of the company [2]. Group 2: Dalio's Future Role - Dalio will continue to serve as a strategic mentor and long-term client for Bridgewater, expressing satisfaction with the transition, likening it to seeing a child grow strong and independent [4]. Group 3: Market Insights - Dalio has issued warnings regarding the market's insufficient pricing of debt crisis risks and the limitations of AI in addressing the U.S. fiscal challenges [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of both selecting the right company and buying at the right price in investment decisions, with a stronger focus on the reliability of the company first and then the price being reasonable [3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Value investing is fundamentally about finding a price that offers a margin of safety compared to the intrinsic value of a company, making price a critical factor in investment decisions [4][5]. - The concept of "reasonable price" is often misunderstood; it is not about absolute numbers but rather the relationship between current money and future earnings [4][8]. - Buffett's investment decisions are not influenced by short-term market variables like index movements or economic cycles; instead, he focuses on whether the price is attractive relative to the company's intrinsic value [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Examples - Historical investments by Buffett, such as in Washington Post and GEICO, illustrate his strategy of buying when prices are low relative to intrinsic value, regardless of market conditions [6][7]. - Buffett's approach includes revisiting previous investments to determine if they are worth adding to, based on current pricing [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Mindset - The essence of investing is to find opportunities where the price is significantly lower than the intrinsic value, exemplified by the saying "buying $1 for $0.40" [8]. - Many investors focus on short-term price movements rather than the distance between current prices and intrinsic values, which can lead to missed opportunities [8][9]. - Buffett advocates for purchasing high-quality companies at reasonable prices rather than low-quality companies at low prices, as the former will likely appreciate in value over time [9].