今年的第三场活动，我们走进长沙，聊聊在市场波动中，比预测涨跌更重要的事。 在投资的世界里，我们总是渴望知道一个简单问题的答案："明天，是涨还是跌？"在UP向上投资者系 列活动长沙场的现场，一场关于"今天市场涨跌"的即兴投票，结果竟是五五开。 引言：为践行以投资者为本的理念，扎实做好投资者教育宣传工作，中信保诚基金"UP向上，投资有温 度"旨在通过系统化的理财知识普及、专业化的投资决策陪伴、多元化的传播场景搭建，致力于为投资 者提供覆盖全生命周期的财富管理支持。 二、 正视"不确定性"，拥抱"长期趋势" 另一位讲师的分享点明了另一种普遍存在的认知冲突：当我们谈论个股时，对方可能用宏观趋势来反 驳；而当我们看好长期趋势时，对方又可能用短期的技术指标来质疑。 这恰恰说明，试图用短期逻辑去验证长期判断，或者用长期趋势来推测短期走势，往往会陷入迷茫。作 为投资者，我们需要学会区分市场的"短期噪音"与"长期信号"，不必为每一个日内波动而焦虑，而应将 精力放在寻找那些能够跨越周期的优质资产上，坚守长期的、确定的趋势。 三、 资产配置：穿越不确定性的"导航系统" 在人工智能技术飞速发展的今天，AI 工具可以极大地提升我们在" ...

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 " 真正厉害的投资人，从来不是先定好要赚多少，而是先问一句：我要冒多大的风险？然后再判断：值不值 得去冒这个险 。 " 2007年10月，金融危机的前夜，赛斯·卡拉曼 （ Seth A. Klarman ） 走进麻省理工 （ MIT）， 进行 了 一场 极其经典的、具有预言般的演 讲。 那时的美国市场表面 似乎 平静：楼市泡沫还没破、杠杆游戏还在疯狂、评级机构还在为各种结构化产品盖 章背书。大多数人相信，繁荣还能持续。 但卡拉曼没有讲走势、也没有预测崩盘，而是反复强调一件事：市场的喧嚣、模型的优雅、回报的诱惑，往 往会让人忘了最基本的问题 ——你为这些回报承担了什么风险？ 很多人知道卡拉曼，是因为那本在投资圈流传甚广的《安全边际》。这本书长期绝版，一度在 eBay上被炒 到 2500美元 一本。它 的 稀缺 不单单是 因为绝版，更因为做起来太难。 在短期主义盛行、市场信息喧嚣的时代，坚持卡拉曼那种慢、谨慎、敬畏风险的风格，本身就不容易。 而他自己，是少数真正做到了 "低调但不妥协"的人。 1982年，卡拉曼25岁， 联合 创立了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent debates surrounding AI narratives, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances have contributed to increased market volatility. The current market adjustment appears to have established a preliminary sense of space, with strong support expected around the market's central position in late September. Future improvements in overseas liquidity expectations, reduced domestic funding pressures, and further digestion of market sentiment may lead to a healthier market environment [1]. Group 1 - The market valuation is approaching a "reasonable" central level, suggesting that if there is an overshoot, it may be appropriate to increase positions [1]. - The focus for investment should be on mid-term themes, emphasizing safety margins, and paying attention to low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1]. - Continuing to hold large financial stocks is recommended to mitigate volatility [1].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities has released a report indicating that recent debates surrounding AI narratives, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances have contributed to increased market volatility. The current market adjustment shows initial signs of having sufficient space for recovery, with strong support expected around the market center in late September. [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The report highlights that the market is currently experiencing adjustments that may have reached a preliminary level of support, suggesting a potential for recovery. [1] - It is anticipated that improvements in overseas liquidity expectations and a reduction in domestic funding pressures will lead to a healthier market environment as sentiment further stabilizes. [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current market valuation is approaching a "reasonable" central level, and if there are any significant deviations, it may be appropriate to increase positions. [1] - The report emphasizes focusing on mid-term themes and maintaining a safety margin in investments, particularly in sectors such as low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals. [1] - Continuing to hold large financial stocks is recommended to mitigate volatility in the market. [1]

大盘这些天"跌跌不休"，很多人心里打鼓，甚至想割肉离场。但在牛散和游资眼里，这分明是市场开着 卡车来"倒车接人"了！现在不仅不该怕，反而应该兴奋，该拿着钱袋子里外找了！还记得巴菲特说的那 句名言吗？——价格是你付出的，价值是你得到的。现在市场恐慌抛售的，很多正是那些因为短期利 空、情绪宣泄而被错杀的"烟屁股"——它们的内在价值，远高于当前的市场价格。1.市场情绪冰点，正 是烟蒂密集出现的黄金时刻当市场恐慌性抛售时，很多质地优良的公司也会被泥沙俱下地错杀。这些公 司的核心资产（品牌、技术、渠道、现金流）并未受损，但股价却跌到了极具安全边际的区间。这就像 在地上捡到了一个还能抽一口的雪茄烟蒂，虽然不长，但免费且有滋有味。格雷厄姆强调的"安全边 际"，在当下尤为重要。我们寻找那些：——市净率（PB）远低于历史均值的公司，尤其是破净 （PB<1）的优质龙头。这意味着你用低于公司净资产的价格在买入。——股息率极具吸引力的公司。 在市场动荡时，高股息不仅提供现金流回报，更是公司财务健康的"压舱石"。当股息率超过6%甚至更 高时，其防御性和吸引力不言而喻。——现金流充沛、负债率低的公司。这类公司在经济下行期更具韧 性，抗风 ...

老铁们，最近光伏板块刚有点反弹气色，没想到大股东们却集体"按下减持键"！阿特斯、天合光能、福斯特这些行业龙头，直接被股东清仓式减持，还有高 瓴资本减持隆基绿能，整个光伏圈减持潮汹涌，这波操作到底藏着啥门道？做了20年财经记者，深耕中长线投资这么久，今天就用大白话跟大家聊透，到底 是该慌着跑路，还是能趁机捡便宜。 得果断回避。 其次，要聚焦有"硬实力"的公司。光伏行业现在分化越来越明显，那些有技术壁垒、现金流稳定、市占率高的龙头，就算遇到短期减持，也能扛住波动。比 如有些公司在高效组件、光伏设备上有核心技术，订单排得很满，业绩有支撑，股东减持只是短期扰动，中长线还是靠谱的；但那些没技术、没订单，全靠 概念炒作的公司，遇到减持潮大概率会跌得很惨，千万别碰。 还有一点很重要，中长线投资别被短期波动带偏。我见过太多投资者，一看到股东减持就慌着割肉，结果割在最低点；也有人看到减持就盲目抄底，最后套 在半山腰。帮主20年的经验告诉我，投资就像过日子，不能只看一时的涨跌，光伏行业长期趋势没改，但短期肯定会有震荡，减持潮就是对投资者心态的考 验，能沉得住气，选对优质公司，才能笑到最后。 其实这波减持潮也给咱们提了个醒，不管哪 ...

Group 1 - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold a significant amount of Apple stock and purchased shares in Google's parent company, Alphabet, as part of its third-quarter 13F report [3][4] - As of the end of the third quarter, Berkshire held 41 stocks with a total market value of $267 billion, an increase of 3.4% from the previous quarter [4] - Berkshire's Apple holdings decreased from 280 million shares to 238.2 million shares, selling nearly three-quarters of its original 905 million shares [4] Group 2 - The decision to reduce Apple holdings reflects a rational approach, as the company has shown a slowdown in product innovation and its market valuation has exceeded traditional value investment safety margins [6] - The purchase of Alphabet shares may indicate a shift in investment strategy, aligning with the interests of other investment managers within Berkshire, suggesting a diversification of investment philosophy [8] - The upcoming transition to a post-Buffett era necessitates a more diversified investment strategy to adapt to changing market conditions and seize opportunities in emerging sectors like technology and renewable energy [10] Group 3 - The potential transformation of Berkshire's investment style post-Buffett could lead to a greater focus on technology investments and a more flexible approach to market opportunities, while still maintaining core value investment principles [11][12] - The essence of Buffett's investment philosophy, characterized by rationality, discipline, and long-termism, is expected to continue, even as the company adapts to new market realities [12]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the investment strategies and philosophies of Duan Yongping, particularly his recent stock holdings and insights shared during an interview [1][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Portfolio - Duan Yongping's investment portfolio, H&H International Investment, reported a total market value of approximately $14.679 billion as of the end of Q3, reflecting a growth of about 28% from the previous quarter [1]. - The top ten holdings in the portfolio account for a high concentration of 99.51%, with Apple Inc. being the largest holding at approximately $8.87 billion, representing 60.42% of the total portfolio [2]. - Significant changes in holdings include a 53.53% increase in Berkshire Hathaway, while there were notable reductions in Alibaba (down 25.86%) and Nvidia (down 38.04%) [2]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The principle of "buying stocks is buying companies" is emphasized, highlighting the importance of understanding the business before investing [4][12]. - Duan Yongping acknowledges the difficulty in fully understanding companies like General Electric and Google, suggesting that investors should refrain from investing in businesses they do not comprehend [4][12]. - He stresses the importance of corporate culture and business models, stating that a strong culture can guide a company even through mistakes [14][16]. Group 3: Market Insights - Duan Yongping expresses admiration for Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang, noting his consistent vision over the years and the company's strong ecosystem [22]. - The discussion includes concerns about the future of electric vehicles, indicating that many companies in this sector may struggle due to a lack of differentiation [29]. - The potential impact of AI on various industries is acknowledged, with a belief that while AI will bring significant changes, it will not replace the need for sound investment decisions [33].

Core Insights - The article discusses the latest 13F holdings of H&H International Investment, revealing a total market value of approximately $14.68 billion, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, with a high concentration in the top ten holdings [1][2]. Holdings Summary - The largest holding is Apple (AAPL) with a market value of approximately $8.87 billion, accounting for 60.42% of the portfolio, showing a slight decrease of 0.82% [2]. - Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is the second-largest holding at approximately $2.61 billion, with a significant increase of 53.53% [2]. - Other notable holdings include Pinduoduo (PDD) at approximately $1.13 billion, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) at approximately $640 million, and Alibaba (BABA) at approximately $496 million, with Alibaba seeing a notable decrease of 25.86% [2]. - New additions to the portfolio include ASML, while there were reductions in positions for Alibaba and Nvidia, with Nvidia seeing a decrease of 38.04% [2]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes understanding the business before investing, stating that "buying stocks is buying companies," which requires a deep understanding of the company's business model and culture [3][4][11]. - The importance of a "not-to-do list" is highlighted, suggesting that avoiding certain investments can be as crucial as making the right ones [12][15]. - The article discusses the significance of company culture and strategic focus, citing examples like Apple and its commitment to product quality and user experience [11][18]. Market Trends and Observations - The discussion includes insights on the semiconductor industry, particularly Nvidia's strong position and the challenges faced by electric vehicle companies due to lack of differentiation [13][18]. - The potential impact of AI on various industries is acknowledged, with a note that while AI will bring significant changes, it will not replace the need for sound investment decisions [18]. Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to focus on understanding the companies they invest in and to avoid following trends without comprehension, as this can lead to poor investment outcomes [15][18]. - The article suggests that investing in index funds, such as the S&P 500, can be a safer strategy for those who may not have the time or expertise to analyze individual stocks [15].

时隔一年半后，管理规模超百亿的主动权益基金经理（下称"百亿基金经理"）人数，重新回到100位以上。 券商中国记者近日从天相投顾基金评价中心（下称"天相投顾"）和理财魔方处获取的数据均显示，截至目前该人数已超过110 名。从阶段性分析来看，该人数历经此前持续下降后，已开始"探底回升"。 "百亿"规模新老有别。一是坚守消费、医药、新能源等赛道的基金经理逐渐淡出"百亿"舞台，新晋百亿基金经理在科技、红 利、量化等赛道崛起，契合了从"传统内需"向"科技创新+安全边际"的行情主线转变。二是新晋的百亿规模，主要是业绩与行 情共振的结果，与过往的"明星效应+大规模新发"形成鲜明对比。通过业绩做大规模固然可喜，但更重要的是避免重蹈覆辙， 通过制度和契约精神来实现规模与业绩的良性循环，并持续夯实循环根基。 "新"百亿基金经理的三大类型 天相投顾对券商中国记者提供的统计数据显示，百亿基金经理人数在2022年一季度是151位，于当年二季度升到163位高点， 平均管理规模超过200亿元。从2022年三季度开始，这一人数开始走低，到2023年末为106人。2024年一季度，百亿基金经理 人数跌破100，到2025年二季度末时只有82人 ...