美国联邦储备委员会在10月货币政策会议纪要中指出，由于经济温和扩张和劳动力市场逐步降温但未出 现急剧恶化，美联储官员对于12月份是否进一步降息的意见出现了显著分歧。同时，联邦政府的"停 摆"导致关键经济数据缺失，也可能成为美联储在12月份谨慎行事、暂缓降息的理由。 近期，美国劳工部发布了就业报告，这将更清晰地展现美国的利率前景。然而，由于联邦政府的停摆， 一些经济数据被延迟公布。市场担心即将公布的经济数据可能会限制美联储进一步放松货币政策的能 力，政策制定者对此也持怀疑态度。此外，对科技股估值过高的担忧也令市场风险情绪承压。 今日周四（11月20日）亚盘时段，黄金价格大幅上涨。周中避险需求成为亮点，美国股市动荡不定，且 即将公布重要美国经济数据。12月黄金期货盘中上涨63.6美元，报4130.1美元/盎司。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 在当前复杂多变的金融市场环境下，交易者与投资者正密切关注着一系列关键的美国经济数据发布。其 中，美联储FOMC会议纪要将于今日稍后公布，而周四劳工部的就业报告也备受瞩目，这些数据有望为 美国利率的未来走向提供重要线索。此前，因联邦政府停摆，部分经济数据的发布 ...

4. 信贷与证券化产品：风险偏好回升，结构分化：企业信贷将受益于资本开支增加、并购活动复苏及政 策宽松，美国和欧洲市场均呈现高收益债（HY）跑赢投资级债（IG）的格局，偏好5-10年期品种以获 取滚动收益，金融板块表现优于周期板块；证券化产品受美欧放松监管提振，建议增持短期品种、下沉 至BBB-级渠道贷款证券，超配机构MBS相对投资级信贷，美国房价与住房活动维持区间波动。 5. 大宗商品：金属强于能源：原油供需平衡偏软，布伦特原油锚定60美元/桶；黄金为首选品种，宏观 因素与强劲实物需求支撑，目标价4500美元/盎司；工业金属中看好铜和铝，二者均面临显著供应挑 战；农产品中看好大豆价格，预计12-18个月目标价11.7美元/蒲式耳，高于玉米的4.7美元/蒲式耳。 6. 核心风险提示：AI投资周期突然终止、市场风险情绪过热、美国以外地区增长超预期、美联储政策 反应函数转变；此外，美国关税政策不确定性、全球贸易紧张局势、新兴市场财政失衡仍可能引发局部 波动。 1. 核心展望与资产配置主线：2026年风险资产将迎来强劲表现，核心驱动力包括微观基本面改善、AI 资本开支加速及有利政策环境，全球市场走势将受美国主导的正 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [5][6] - Fuel oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), suggesting a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, recommending a wait - and - see approach [5][6] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral (represented by white stars), meaning a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, advising a wait - and - see attitude [5][6] - Asphalt: Bearish (represented by three green stars), indicating a clearer downward trend and a relatively appropriate short - selling investment opportunity [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Neutral (represented by white stars), showing a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [5][6] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices declined overnight, and the mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus pressure on oil prices persists. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuate following the trend of the crude oil end, with the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil expected to widen. The price of asphalt dropped, and the market bearish sentiment deepened. The LPG main contract is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC12 contract dropping 0.32% during the day. The U.S. government shutdown is about to break the 2018 - 2019 record, suppressing market risk sentiment. Last week, U.S. API crude oil inventories increased by 6.521 million barrels more than expected, and the mid - term bearish impact of supply - demand surplus pressure on oil prices persists [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices fluctuate following the crude oil end. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened relative to high - sulfur fuel oil recently. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has increased, but the overall supply is still sufficient, and the upward momentum is expected to be limited. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market has basically digested the expected reduction in Russian supply, and the mid - term supply tends to be loose. Overall, the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to widen [2] Asphalt - The BU price dropped today, with the main contract falling 1.6%. Construction in the north is gradually coming to a halt, while there is still a rush - to - build demand in the south. The fundamentals show multiple bearish signals, and the market bearish sentiment has deepened, causing the BU price to decline under pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The previous upward trend of the LPG futures market has ended, and today's main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The weekly LPG commodity volume decreased. The improvement in chemical profit has increased demand, and the demand for combustion has improved due to significant temperature drops in many places. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased slightly, while the port storage capacity ratio increased. The international oil price shows a weakening upward trend, and the LPG main contract is expected to fluctuate mainly [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as the US government shutdown, supply - demand dynamics, and policy uncertainties across different commodities [2][3]. - Most commodities are expected to show various trends including oscillations, declines, or limited upward movements in the short - to - medium term [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices fell overnight. US government shutdown and API inventory increase added pressure, with medium - term supply - demand surplus weighing on prices [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed crude oil down. Low - sulfur supply pressure may ease marginally, while high - sulfur supply is expected to be more abundant in the medium term, and the high - low sulfur crack spread may widen further [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Weekly LPG production declined. Demand improved but was offset by weakening cost support from oil prices, causing LPG to fall [24]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Nuclear Energy**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Renewable Energy**: - **Polysilicon**: Futures dropped. Supply pressure increased with rising inventory, and the market may enter a short - term consolidation phase [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures fell due to polysilicon market sentiment. It's in a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, with limited upside [13]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals declined overnight. With the US government shutdown and data issues, they are in a high - level oscillation, and it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped overnight. New supply - loss or demand signals are needed after hitting record highs, and it's recommended to observe [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fell. Domestic inventory and consumption were average, and the upside space is limited [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory supported overseas premiums, and falling TC supported domestic prices. After the consumption peak, zinc prices may find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: Lead prices oscillated narrowly. Consumption may weaken, but cost and low inventory provided support, with a short - term range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices were weak. Downstream demand was soft, and nickel may continue to be affected by upstream price trends [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated. If it breaks below the MA20, short - selling may be considered as prices may fall to October lows [11]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory at a low level supported overseas premiums, and falling TC propped up domestic prices. After the consumption peak, zinc prices may find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Prices weakened. Supply was high, and demand may decline further in the off - season. It's expected to oscillate weakly at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: Prices dropped. There's a third - round price increase expectation, but steel mills' low profits limit upside, and it's necessary to monitor safety inspections [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices declined. Although some mines resumed production, prices may not fall continuously. It's important to watch safety inspections [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Prices oscillated. High iron - water production supported demand, and prices are likely to oscillate narrowly [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Prices oscillated. Demand was fair, and prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [20]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices fell. Demand was weak, and the market may oscillate at a low level, with attention on environmental restrictions and demand changes [15]. Chemicals - **Alkali Chemicals**: - **Soda Ash**: Prices were weak. Supply increased, and demand may decrease, and it's advisable to watch the long - glass short - soda strategy [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: Prices continued to fall. Profit margins were squeezed, and demand was weak, with potential for a rebound if chlorine prices keep dropping [30]. - **Organic Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: Prices stabilized. High imports and inventory, along with weak downstream demand, may keep prices under pressure [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices were weak. Port inventory increased, and there are mid - term supply - demand concerns, with a focus on port inventory build - up [27]. - **Styrene**: Prices were under pressure. Supply decreased slightly, but high inventory persisted, and demand was stable [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene may see price support, while polyethylene supply increased and demand weakened, and polypropylene faces supply pressure and limited demand [29]. - **PVC**: Prices were low. Supply may increase, and demand declined, with cost support being weak [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices moved down. Supply increased, and there's a risk of inventory build - up, with a focus on oil price fluctuations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and inventory is expected to rise, with a focus on potential plant shutdowns [32]. - **Fertilizers**: - **Urea**: Prices oscillated strongly. Demand increased, and inventory decreased, but oversupply persists, and prices may oscillate within a range [25]. - **Ammonia**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Potash Fertilizers**: Not mentioned in the report. Building Materials - **Glass**: Prices oscillated strongly. Supply changes and cost increases supported prices, and it's advisable to hold short - put options [34]. - **Cement**: Not mentioned in the report. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Prices oscillated weakly. US - China trade relations are key, and domestic supply is sufficient. Look for buying opportunities on dips [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil may face a decline due to high supply, while soybean oil is affected by biodiesel policies [38]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The market is influenced by trade relations. Rapeseed meal can be short - term long, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak [39]. - **Corn**: Prices were strong. Supply is abundant, and the market may remain weak at the bottom, with attention on US - China trade policies [41]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. Supply pressure is high, and a second - bottom in prices is likely next year [42]. - **Chickens**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Eggs**: Prices oscillated. Supply may improve in the long - term, and look for short - selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: Prices oscillated. US - China trade and domestic demand are key factors, and it's advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: Prices fell. International supply is abundant, and domestic production expectations are good, with attention on weather [45]. - **Fruits**: - **Apples**: Prices dropped. High - quality apples are scarce, and inventory pressure is a concern, with a bearish view [46]. - **Timber & Pulp**: - **Timber**: Prices were weak. Low inventory supports prices, and it's advisable to wait and see [47]. - **Pulp**: Prices fell slightly. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak in the short - term, with a possible improvement in the medium - term [48]. Others - **Shipping**: The Container Freight Index (Europe Line) may stabilize and rise slightly, but further upside is limited without new drivers [21]. - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: A - shares fell, and the market is expected to oscillate, with a focus on the technology growth sector [49].

Oil Market - International oil prices declined, with Brent crude falling by 0.65%. Since September, global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The mid-term outlook for the oil market remains under pressure due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, despite upward revisions in earnings forecasts by three major institutions for the next two years [2] - Geopolitical risks have eased following a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, leading to a reduction in oil market risk premiums. However, with oil prices nearing the lows seen during the trade war in April, the short-term downward momentum is weakening, suggesting a potential shift to a weak consolidation phase [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded, with market sentiment influenced by ongoing negotiations regarding US-China trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US government shutdown. The long-term upward trend for gold and silver remains intact, but short-term volatility risks have increased, suggesting a cautious approach to positions [3] Base Metals - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, supported by easing tariffs under Trump's policies and the potential end of the US government shutdown. However, domestic supply and demand conditions are mixed, with copper inventories rising. The outlook suggests high copper prices may lead to continued volatility [4] - Aluminum prices remained stable, with consumption levels since August showing little change year-on-year. Inventory levels have been neutral, indicating limited fundamental drivers for price movements [5] - The aluminum alloy market is facing tight scrap supply and rising costs due to tax policy adjustments, although high inventory levels are present [6] - Alumina production capacity is at historical highs, with rising inventories and evident oversupply. The average cost in September was around 3000 yuan, nearing levels that could trigger production cuts [7] - Zinc inventories increased, confirming a supply surplus. Despite short-term export opportunities, actual shipments remain limited, and zinc prices are under pressure [8] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are fluctuating, with rebar demand showing a significant month-on-month increase, although year-on-year figures remain weak. Production continues to decline, and inventory levels are decreasing [15] - Iron ore prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with global shipments increasing compared to last year. Domestic demand is expected to decrease as the peak season ends, leading to potential production cuts [16] Other Commodities - The LPG market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight increase in supply. Chemical demand is rising, but overall demand remains subdued [23] - The urea market is facing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices under pressure due to high inventories and limited export policies [24] - The cotton market is seeing stable prices amid weak demand, with ongoing attention to US-China trade relations [42] - The sugar market is under pressure from high production levels in Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to a cautious outlook for prices [43]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the British pound's movement is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data released [1] - The upcoming US inflation report is identified as a potential catalyst for the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - MonexEurope maintains a neutral stance, expecting the British pound to experience range-bound fluctuations while closely monitoring the UK autumn budget as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, which is earlier than the market's general expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative advantage in terms of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data releases impacting its movement [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - MonexEurope reports that the upcoming US inflation report is a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movement [1] - The company maintains a neutral stance, expecting the pound to remain within a range while monitoring the forthcoming UK autumn budget, which is seen as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, earlier than the market's current expectations, which could diminish the pound's relative strength in terms of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with upcoming US inflation data being a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movements [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Influence - The pound's performance is affected by the dollar's movements and overall market risk sentiment, especially in the absence of significant UK data releases [1] Upcoming Events - The US inflation report scheduled for Thursday is anticipated to impact the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - The UK autumn budget is highlighted as a key domestic catalyst for the pound [1] Future Outlook - Monex Europe suggests that the Bank of England may lower interest rates as early as December, which is sooner than market expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative interest rate advantage [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Market risk sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts fluctuated last week, causing the gold price to oscillate and decline. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, Shanghai gold T+D, and London gold all decreased compared to the previous week. The unexpected rise in the US July PPI data and the significant rebound in retail sales data dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, while the meeting between Trump and Putin increased the expectation of a缓和 in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, jointly suppressing the gold price. This week, the gold price is expected to decline slightly, but in the long term, the overall upward trend of the gold price will not reverse without clear driving factors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On August 15, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 775.80 yuan/gram, a decrease of 12.00 yuan/gram from the previous week; the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 3381.70 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 76.50 US dollars/ounce from the previous week. The closing price of Shanghai gold T+D was 773.09 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.18 yuan/gram from the previous week; the closing price of London gold was 3335.28 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 63.30 US dollars/ounce from the previous week [4]. 3.1.2 Gold Basis - On August 15, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was -0.70 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 8.65 US dollars/ounce from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis was -3.37 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.80 yuan/gram from the previous week [8]. 3.1.3 Gold Price Spread between Domestic and Foreign Markets - Last week, the decline of the foreign gold price was greater than that of the domestic market. On Friday, the gold price spread between domestic and foreign markets was -8.91 yuan/gram, an increase from -12.48 yuan/gram the previous week. The decline of the crude oil price was slightly greater than that of the gold price, causing the gold - oil ratio to decline slightly; the decline of the silver price was less than that of the gold price, causing the gold - silver ratio to continue to decline; the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [10]. 3.1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the position of gold ETFs continued to increase slightly last week. As of August 15, the position of the world's largest SPDR gold ETF was 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased slightly. In terms of futures positions, as of August 12, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased slightly, while the short positions increased significantly, resulting in a slight decline in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the inventory of COMEX gold futures increased slightly last week, and the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold increased by 300 kilograms to 36,345 kilograms [13]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals 3.2.1 Important Economic Data - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that most US trade negotiations will be completed by October. The US July CPI was lower than expected, but the core CPI growth rate reached the highest level since February. The US July PPI increased significantly, reaching a three - year high. The US July retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the real retail sales increased for the tenth consecutive month [17][19][20][21]. 3.2.2 Federal Reserve Policy Tracking - Last week, Fed officials spoke intensively, and most of them were cautious about the path of interest rate cuts. Some officials supported maintaining the current interest rate level, while others believed that it was necessary to see more data before making a decision. Only a few officials supported starting to ease monetary policy next month [28][29][30]. 3.2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Driven by the soaring service cost, the unexpected significant increase in the US July PPI data cooled the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate and decline. As of last Friday, the US dollar index decreased by 0.43% to 97.85 compared to the previous week [31]. 3.2.4 US 10 - Year TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated and increased last week. The mild US July CPI data at the beginning of the week increased the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut, causing the US 10 - year TIPS yield to continue to decline. However, the significant increase in the PPI data and the rebound in retail sales data in the second half of the week pushed the US 10 - year TIPS yield up. As of last Friday, the US 10 - year TIPS yield increased by 7bp to 1.95% compared to the previous week [33]. 3.2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Trump and Putin held talks, and there may be room for negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. European leaders will accompany Ukrainian President Zelensky to meet with Trump in Washington this week to seek security guarantees for Kiev. In the Middle East, Israel continues to attack Gaza [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market risk sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts fluctuated last week, leading to a volatile correction in gold prices. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, gold T+D spot, and London gold spot all declined. Specifically, on August 15, the Shanghai gold futures price dropped 1.52% to 775.80 yuan/gram compared to the previous Friday, and the COMEX gold futures price fell 2.21% to 3381.70 dollars/ounce. The gold T+D spot price decreased 1.30% to 773.09 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price declined 1.86% to 3335.28 dollars/ounce [1]. - Gold prices are expected to decline slightly this week. The unexpectedly high July PPI data in the US implies potential inflation rebound, which may lead Powell to reaffirm a policy - wait - and - see attitude at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, weakening interest rate cut expectations and pressuring gold prices. Additionally, Trump will continue to promote a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, and the possibility of a further increase in geopolitical risks is low. In the long run, without clear driving factors, the overall upward trend of gold prices will not reverse [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures: The Shanghai gold futures price closed at 775.80 yuan/gram on August 15, down 12.00 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the COMEX gold futures price closed at 3381.70 dollars/ounce, down 76.50 dollars/ounce. The cumulative decline of Shanghai gold futures was - 1.28%, and that of COMEX gold futures was - 3.14% [4][5]. - Spot: The gold T+D spot price closed at 773.09 yuan/gram on August 15, down 10.18 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the London gold spot price closed at 3335.28 dollars/ounce, down 63.30 dollars/ounce. The cumulative decline of gold T+D was - 1.19%, and that of London gold was - 1.86% [4][5]. 1.2 Gold Basis - The international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 0.70 dollars/ounce last Friday, rising 8.65 dollars/ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was - 3.37 yuan/gram, falling 1.80 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Market Spread - The foreign market gold price decline was greater than that of the domestic market last week. The gold domestic - foreign market spread on Friday was - 8.91 yuan/gram, rising from - 12.48 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The decline of crude oil prices was slightly greater than that of gold prices, causing the gold - oil ratio to decline slightly; the decline of silver prices was less than that of gold, leading to a continuous decline in the gold - silver ratio; copper prices fluctuated narrowly, and the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - Spot position: The gold ETF holdings continued to increase slightly last week. As of last Friday, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased slightly, with the full - week cumulative trading volume at 151302 kilograms, a decrease of 9.64% from the previous week [13]. - Futures position: As of August 12, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased slightly, while the short positions increased significantly, resulting in a slight decline in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the COMEX gold futures inventory increased slightly last week, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory continued to increase by 300 kilograms to 36345 kilograms [13]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that "most" US trade negotiations will be completed by October. He expected to basically complete negotiations with countries without trade agreements by the end of October [17]. - The US July CPI was lower than expected, and the core CPI growth rate reached the highest level since February. The July CPI increased 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.3%; the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, lower than the expected value of 2.8% and the same as the previous value. The core CPI increased 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected value [19]. - The US July PPI soared month - on - month, reaching a three - year high. The year - on - year increase in PPI rose from 2.3% to 3.3%, well above the expected value of 2.5%; the month - on - month increase was 0.9%, the largest since June 2022. The core PPI also showed significant increases [20]. - The US July retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month, and the real retail sales increased for the tenth consecutive month. After excluding inflation, the real retail sales increased 1.2% year - on - year [21]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Most Fed officials were cautious about the interest rate cut path last week. Richmond Fed President Barkin was unsure whether to focus more on controlling inflation or boosting the job market; Kansas City Fed President Schmid supported maintaining interest rates; Atlanta Fed President thought one interest rate cut in 2025 was appropriate if the labor market remained robust; St. Louis Fed President Musalem thought it was too early to judge whether to support a September interest rate cut; San Francisco Fed President Daly supported the Fed to start easing monetary policy next month; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee thought more data was needed to judge the inflation situation [28][29][30]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The unexpectedly high US July PPI data cooled market expectations of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of last Friday, the US dollar index decreased 0.43% to 97.85 compared to the previous Friday [31]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated upward last week. The mild July CPI data at the beginning of the week increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut, causing the yield to decline. However, the significant increase in PPI data and the rebound in retail sales data in the second half of the week pushed the yield up. As of last Friday, the yield increased 7bp to 1.95% compared to the previous Friday [33]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Trump and Putin held a meeting, and there may be room for negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. On August 18, European leaders will accompany Ukrainian President Zelensky to meet with Trump in Washington. In the Middle East, Israel continued to attack Gaza, and Hamas said it was a "new form of genocide" [36].