证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 25 日 [Table_Title] Agnico Eagle 2025Q4 年黄金产量环比减少 3%至 26.15 吨，净利润环比增长 44%至 15.23 亿美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 2025Q4 黄金产量 84.06 万盎司（26.15 吨），同比减少 1%，环 比减少 3%。黄金产量较上年同期下降，主要源于 Macassa 矿 区（品位降低且处理量减少）和 LaRonde 矿区（处理量减少） 产量下滑，部分被 Detour 湖矿区（品位提升）和加拿大 Malartic 矿区（品位提升且处理量增加）产量增长所抵消。 2025 年黄金产量 344.74 万盎司（107.23 吨），同比减少 1%。 黄金产量较上年同期下降，主要源于 Fosterville 矿（品位与处 理量双降）和 La India 矿（矿山寿命终止）产量减少，部分被 Macassa 矿与 LaRonde 矿（品位提升）增产所抵消 2025Q4 黄金销量 84.26 万 ...

（一） 以至于特朗普的顾问都很惊讶：特朗普总统不明白，美国已经施加了那么大压力，伊朗怎么还不屈服？ 伊朗外长阿拉格齐的回答是：因为我们是伊朗人。 打还是不打，现在只是时间问题了。 两艘航母齐聚中东，第三艘也在进发，此外，大批美军战斗机、加油机、轰炸机、预警机环伺周边，各 种防空导弹运到以色列，这背后是天价的美元开支。 如果还不打，全世界看特朗普的笑话，笑他又TACO了。 特朗普最不喜欢的，就是被全世界看笑话。 毕竟，人活一世，最怕的不是对手的强大，而是自己成了别人口中的笑柄。 他强烈希望伊朗服软，同意他开出的条件，比如，彻底放弃核计划，签订城下之盟，如果还可能的，不 妨来个现代版的牵羊之礼。 但伊朗偏不。 伊朗领导层很清楚，现在是危机存亡的时刻，斗争到底，可能还有一条生路；全面妥协，立刻马上垮 台。不信，看一看卡扎菲的先例。 所以，不管特朗普如何极限施压，伊朗就是咬紧牙关，可以谈，可以让步，但拒绝投降。 那打，应该是大概率的事情。 不打一打，伊朗不会屈服；不打一打，美国不会死心。 有时候，战争的发生，不是因为双方都想打，而是因为双方都觉得自己输不起。 伊朗军队正处于最高戒备状态，伊朗领导层据说已制定四层接班人 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The supply and demand of steel are both weakening, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass and soda ash are experiencing range - bound oscillations due to pre - holiday cautious sentiment. For double silicon, the market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode as the Spring Festival approaches [1][3] - Glass market fundamentals have no obvious improvement. Although the expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Soda ash supply is abundant with new production projects advancing, and pre - holiday demand is seasonally low [1] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved slightly with expected increase in iron - water production, but inventory pressure remains high. The fundamentals of silicon iron are controllable, and demand is expected to improve marginally as steel mills resume production, but overall over - capacity restricts price increases [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations yesterday, with decreasing positions as the holiday nears. Spot prices are stable, but trading volume is low. This week, cold - repair of production lines increased, daily melting volume dropped, and inventory rose. Soda ash contracts also had narrow - range fluctuations, with low spot trading volume. This week, soda ash production increased slightly, heavy - ash inventory rose slightly, and light - ash inventory decreased [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass fundamentals have no significant improvement. The expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, but pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory accumulation continues. Soda ash supply is in a loose pattern. With new production projects advancing, production remains high, and inventory is increasing. Pre - holiday demand drops seasonally, and the new production projects need to be monitored [1] Strategy - Glass: Range - bound fluctuations; Soda ash: Range - bound fluctuations; No strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [2] Double Silicon Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate slightly, and the market was quiet with a strong holiday atmosphere. The price of 6517 silicon manganese is 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market. Silicon iron futures followed the overall black - metal market downwards, and the spot market was weak. Most of the market is in a wait - and - see mode. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon manganese fundamentals have improved slightly, and iron - water production is expected to increase, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, inventory pressure is still high. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs. Silicon iron fundamentals are controllable. Enterprises are reducing production, and demand is expected to improve as steel mills resume production. But overall over - capacity restricts price increases, and inventory reduction and power - price policies need to be monitored [3] Strategy - Silicon manganese: Range - bound fluctuations; Silicon iron: Range - bound fluctuations [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the steel market is experiencing weak stability before the holiday, with low fluctuations in futures steel prices [4][12] - In January, China's CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [4][12] - The sales of excavators in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales up by 61.4% [4][12] Group 2 - The production of rebar decreased by 225,200 tons to 1,691,600 tons, with inventory increasing by 672,500 tons to 5,848,200 tons [5][14] - Hot-rolled coil production slightly decreased by 14,000 tons to 3,077,600 tons, while total inventory rose by 115,700 tons to 3,707,700 tons [5][14] - The average cost for independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 3,296 yuan per ton, with an average loss of 520 yuan per ton [4][12] Group 3 - The total supply of five major steel products was 7,940,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 258,400 tons, while total inventory increased by 1,449,300 tons, a rise of 7.8% [4][12] - The steel market is currently in a weak supply-demand situation, with steel mills implementing production cuts as the holiday approaches [5][14] - The strategy for rebar is to observe support around 3,050, while for hot-rolled coil, support is around 3,200 [6][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - The current supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, with steel prices showing small fluctuations [1]. - The trading atmosphere in the glass and soda ash market is cold, and the prices are weakly oscillating [1]. - The market fluctuations of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have weakened, and the alloys are oscillating within a narrow range [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main glass contract showed a weakly oscillating trend throughout the day. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the trading volume decreased, and the trading atmosphere in the spot and futures markets was cold [1]. - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract continued to operate weakly, with narrow - range oscillations. The trading atmosphere in the spot market was cold, and the market was mainly for rigid - demand purchases [1]. Supply and Demand Logic - Glass: The fundamentals are still weak. There is an increasing expectation of production suspension in the Shahe area, which supports the market. However, the downstream is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the demand is cold. The current low price allows the market to tolerate higher inventory. In the short term, it will continue to operate in an oscillating manner [1]. - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash remains loose. With the progress of new production projects, the supply pressure continues to increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream consumption shows a seasonal decline due to more cold repairs. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is still at a high level, and the de - stocking process is slow, with large overall supply - demand contradictions [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: The silicomanganese futures showed a small - scale oscillation, and the volatility decreased compared to the previous period. The spot market was stable. There were new ignition situations in northern factories, with the price of 6517 in the northern market ranging from 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton and in the southern market from 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures followed the overall black market and operated weakly. The spot market was weak, and the market was full of a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3]. Supply and Demand Logic - Silicomanganese: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved. There is an expectation of an increase in molten iron production, and the demand for silicomanganese has marginally improved. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The recent South African tariff policy may increase the cost of manganese ore, and attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamental contradictions of ferrosilicon are controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production in steel mills, the demand for ferrosilicon is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of ferrosilicon suppresses the price increase, and continuous attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation and power price policies in production areas [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in precious metals suppresses the atmosphere of non - ferrous metals, and short - term panic still has a suppressing effect. However, in the long run, the outlook is not pessimistic. Copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize, aluminum prices may stabilize under certain conditions, and different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3][5][6]. - The market may return to real - world trading. Tin prices may face a significant correction risk in the short term, nickel prices have a large risk of decline, and lithium prices face pressure but may have short - term support at the bottom [15][17][19]. - The stainless steel price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position layout can be considered at around 14,000 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME copper 3M closed down 4.63% to $13,070/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,190 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,100 to 174,975 tons, and the domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly inventory increased by 0.7 to 233,000 tons [2]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops. The expected surplus is alleviated, and copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,600 - $13,500/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME aluminum closed down 3.03% to $3,135/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,600 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 63,000 to 742,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,000 to 145,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Domestic inventories are accumulating, but it does not constitute a major negative for prices. LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing support for aluminum prices. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and domestic inventories perform better than the seasonal average, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,300 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - $3,180/ton [5][6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy dropped sharply. The main AD2603 contract closed down 4.32% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 23,900 lots, and the trading volume was 45,500 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 400 to 68,200 tons [8]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although the demand is relatively average, in the context of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the price has short - term support [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 1.69% to 16,918 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $42 to $2,004/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,675 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons [10]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC is at a low level, the primary lead production rate remains relatively high, and the primary lead ingot inventory is accumulating. The inventory of recycled waste has increased, the recycled smelting profit has slightly declined, but the recycled lead production rate has increased marginally. The downstream battery enterprise production rate has slightly declined. The industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.46% to 25,860 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $62.5 to $3,399/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 25,790 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 109,800 tons [13]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In the industrial sector, the zinc ore raw material inventory has increased, the decline rate of zinc ore has slowed down. The LME zinc ingot inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME zinc 3 - 15 month spread has increased. The overseas natural gas price has increased, causing concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. The zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [13]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 30, the tin price冲高回落, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 409,000 yuan/ton, down 8.32% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory increased by 30 to 8,524 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 7,095 tons [14]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In the context of the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is expected that the tin price may have a large correction risk in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - $51,000/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 30, the nickel price dropped significantly, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 140,000 yuan/ton, down 5.07% from the previous day. The spot market premiums remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [16]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The nickel price has a large risk of decline in the short term. The market may return to real - world trading, and the high premium of refined nickel over nickel iron and the significant increase in domestic nickel inventory put pressure on the nickel price. It is recommended to sell short on rallies. The short - term reference operating range for Shanghai nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $18,000/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 155,107 yuan, down 5.71% from the previous working day and 11.28% for the week. The LC2605 contract closed at 148,200 yuan, down 10.08% from the previous day's closing price and 18.36% for the week [18][19]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Last week, the bullish sentiment cooled down, and the stop - profit orders increased significantly, causing the lithium price to decline rapidly. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 15.9% for the week. Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, the sustainability of supply - side contraction is uncertain, and there is significant pressure on the upside of the lithium price. In the context of low downstream inventories, there may be short - term support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 136,000 - 158,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 30, 2026, the alumina index fell 1.64% to 2,768 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading total position decreased by 32,900 to 613,500 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 213 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 79 yuan/ton. The Friday futures warehouse receipts were 171,100 tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous day [21]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but there are still three difficulties for continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday at 15:00, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,585 yuan/ton, up 0.83% (+120). The unilateral position was 293,500 lots, a decrease of 1,534 lots from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the futures inventory increased by 4,641 to 43,579 tons. The social inventory decreased to 904,500 tons, a 2.91% increase month - on - month, and the 300 - series inventory was 616,700 tons, a 2.86% increase month - on - month [24]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Last week, the market volatility increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metal prices on Friday dragged down the non - ferrous metal sector, and the market sentiment was affected. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the inventory turnover speed slowed down. The supply side has significantly contracted. The core upward logic has not changed, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to lightly lay out long positions at around 14,000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,700 yuan/ton [25].

Genius经过测算目前成本是前面成本的二十倍如果在卷起来成本只会更高我自己目前还在测试如果回报率不够，可能就直接放弃了成本差距太大了 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards supply - led. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 158,940 - 166,660. In the supply side, there are expectations of production and import volume decreases in the next month, while on the demand side, the demand is expected to strengthen and inventory may be reduced. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [9][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,535 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises decreased by 3.80% week - on - week to 96,094 tons, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises decreased by 0.80% week - on - week to 18,432 tons [8]. - **Expectations**: In December 2025, lithium carbonate production was 99,200 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 97,970 physical tons next month, a 1.23% decrease. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 22,500 physical tons next month, a 13.46% decrease. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF increased day - on - day, lower than the historical average [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 145,425 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, with a production profit of 5,049 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 149,161 yuan/ton, a 5.04% day - on - day increase, with a production profit of 4,680 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - **Other Factors**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Data**: The closing price of the 05 contract of lithium carbonate futures increased, and the basis was negative, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The prices of upstream lithium ore and related raw materials generally increased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased by 3.57% [16]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate increased to 87.14%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 99,200 tons, a 4.04% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a 7.64% decrease, and the import volume from Chile decreased by 26.84% [18]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.78%, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.17%. The monthly production of ternary materials decreased, and the weekly inventory decreased by 0.80%. The monthly installed capacity of power batteries increased by 11.18% [18]. - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: The production of new energy vehicles was 1,880,000, a 6.09% increase, the sales volume was 1.823 million, a 6.30% increase, and the export volume was 30,000, a 17.19% increase. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased to 53.16% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of L2605 is expected to be volatile, with the daily range estimated to be around 6360 - 6580 yuan/ton [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 6449 yuan/ton; the 1 - month contract decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 6240 yuan/ton, the 5 - month contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 6449 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 6496 yuan/ton [2] - The trading volume of futures increased by 72,633 hands to 397,441 hands, and the open interest increased by 7,498 hands to 508,923 hands [2] - The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7 to - 209 [2] - Among the top 20 futures positions, the buy volume increased by 19,428 hands to 424,068 hands, the sell volume increased by 8,277 hands to 486,835 hands, and the net buy volume increased by 11,151 hands to - 62,767 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China increased by 53.91 yuan/ton to 6476.52 yuan/ton, and in East China increased by 30.93 yuan/ton to 6534.88 yuan/ton [2] - The basis was 27.52 yuan/ton, and the change value was NAN [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore decreased by 0.6 dollars/barrel to 56.36 dollars/barrel; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan decreased by 6.25 dollars/ton to 530.13 dollars/ton [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia remained at 726 dollars/ton, and in Northeast Asia remained at 746 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical plant operating rate increased by 0.59 percentage points to 83.23% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film increased by 0.19 percentage points to 48.41%, the operating rate of PE pipes decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 30.17%, and the operating rate of PE agricultural film decreased by 4.91 percentage points to 38.95% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 16.03%, the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01 percentage points to 12.77% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options for polyethylene both decreased by 0.73 percentage points, to 14.15% and 14.14% respectively [2] Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the PE plant operating rate increased by 0.59% to 83.23%, and the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.68% to 41.15%, with the agricultural film operating rate decreasing by 4.91% to 38.95% and the packaging film operating rate increasing by 0.19% to 48.41% [2] - As of January 2, the PE plant inventory was 37.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19.17%, and the PE social inventory was 47.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.76% [2] - From December 27 to January 2, the LLDPE oil - based production cost decreased by 0.55% to 6925.43 yuan/ton, the coal - based production cost remained stable at 5732 yuan/ton; the oil - based profit increased by 36.71 yuan/ton to - 630.29 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 143.14 yuan/ton to - 63.57 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. The upward elasticity of steel prices is constrained by weak demand, but the price is supported by steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils is 3150 - 3350. The rebar 1 - 5 positive spread can be gradually exited, and attention can be paid to the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is still at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to form a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory below. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range operations on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [4]. Coke - Coke futures have fallen in advance. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the rebound driven by expectations is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the coke 2605 contract and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The rebound expectation of coking coal has been overdrawn in advance. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation has been priced in. The improvement expectation on the demand side is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5700 in the short term [9]. Ferromanganese - The supply of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia, with short - term operations as the main strategy [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices showed mixed trends. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3310 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coils increased from 3280 to 3283 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased from - 99 to - 105 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons. However, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, with rebar production increasing by 2.7 tons (1.5%) and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 1.6 tons (0.6%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons (- 2.8%), the rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons (- 4.0%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons (- 3.5%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.6 (19.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.7 tons (- 0.2%), the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.0 tons (- 2.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.8 tons (2.9%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.3%), while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 5.1%) [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 tons (- 3.6%), and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons (- 2.8%) [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the 45 - port daily average ore handling volume increased by 1.6 tons (0.5%), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons (1.1%), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 136.2 tons (1.6%), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 days (- 9.5%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 19 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.8%) [7]. Supply - Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased from 63.0 to 62.7 tons (- 0.5%), and the raw coal output decreased from 856.1 to 853.4 tons (- 0.3%) [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, and the demand for coke decreased [7]. Inventory - Coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased. The total coke inventory increased from 900.5 to 912.6 tons (1.4%), and the coking coal inventory in all - sample coking plants increased from 1036.3 to 1039.7 tons (0.3%) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price decreased by 20.0 yuan/ton (- 0.4%), and the ferromanganese主力合约 price decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and ferromanganese production increased slightly. Ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 tons (- 1.34%), and ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.4 tons (2.34%) [9]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steelmaking remained stable, and the steel mills' price - pressing sentiment in steel tenders was strong [9]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in some sample enterprises changed slightly. The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons (- 2.4%), and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.4%) [9].