名创优品 20251124 摘要 对于名创优品未来的发展前景如何展望？ 展望未来，公司预计全年归母净利润在 28.5-30 亿之间，根据最新调整后的预 测，今年（2025 年）归母净利润大约为 29 亿，对应第四季度约 8.5 亿的利润。 目前股价对应今年（2025 年）的市盈率仅 15 倍，相当便宜。如果明年 （2026 年）美国直营门店能够提升 2-3 个点的利润率，公司经调整净利润可 能达到 35 亿左右，对应市盈率 12 倍左右。因此，如果美国市场表现理想，公 司估值有望得到显著提升，实现戴维斯双击。 美国市场对名创优品整体业绩影响如何？ Q&A 名创优品最新的季度财报表现如何？ 名创优品在最新发布的季度财报中，收入增速达到 28.2%，超出彭博一致预测 的 25%左右，略高于公司指引的 25-28%的增速范围。具体来看，国内同店销 售增长接近 10%，而海外市场也实现了正个位数级别的同店增长。Top Toy 业务表现尤为突出，单季度增速达到 110%，远超预期，对整体收入贡献约 2 个百分点。然而，利润方面稍微不及预期，扣非净利润增速为 12%左右，比彭 博一致预期低 3 个百分点。这主要是由于毛利 ...

Group 1: Securities Industry - The integration of leading brokerages is accelerating, driven by supply-side reforms, promoting high-quality development in the industry [2] - Recent announcements from China International Capital Corporation, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities indicate a merger plan that will enhance competitiveness and resource consolidation among top brokerages [2] - The merger aligns with the policy direction from the Central Financial Work Conference aimed at cultivating first-class investment banks, further increasing the concentration of the securities industry [2] Group 2: Insurance Sector - In October 2025, the premium growth rate for life insurance companies like Xinhua and Taibao decreased compared to September, with Xinhua showing a growth rate of +16.9% and Taibao at +9.9% for the first ten months of the year [3] - For October alone, Xinhua's premium growth was -7.2% while Taibao's was -11.2%, indicating a decline in monthly performance [3] - In the property insurance sector, both Zhong An and Taibao experienced a decline in premium growth for October, with Zhong An at +5.2% and Taibao at +0.4% for the first ten months [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing liquidity easing against the backdrop of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a focus on the upward elasticity of the non-bank sector [4] - The Hang Seng Index has decreased by 2.65% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 8.68% since November, underperforming the MSCI World Index by 3.37% [4] - As of November 21, the total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks was HKD 46.83 trillion, reflecting a 15.47% increase since the end of October, although trading activity has decreased with an average daily turnover of HKD 234.73 billion, down 14.62% [4]

大盘在4000点三次磨蹭后，果然又是横久必跌、再次败阵下来。而本以为周一黑的，但没想的是一周黑，盘面个股从周二到周 五四日，每日都差不多8成个股杀跌，周五更是超过九成的杀跌，且还是暴风雨的重挫。 而经过周五的杀跌，很多人的心态都炸了。龙轩身边有部分朋友就很沮丧，有的说把全年的利润都打没了、有的则直接说这轮 不是牛市、还有人被套较深，咨询龙轩怎么办？ 对此，龙轩之前就说这是结构性的牛市，因此对于本周的持续杀跌，我们要分开来看。另外就是仓位的问题，只要不是重仓 的，其实本周这种级别的杀跌根本就是小儿科。 首先科技股方面，这是市场天，而经过周五暴跌后，龙轩认为天已经变了。主要导火线之一就是美股科技也在全线回落，且像 软银等机构都开始全线清仓英伟达，说明机构对后市科技的谨慎，美股闪迪周四更是一夜暴跌20%！ 但当前这些板块最大的问题是，阶段性涨幅巨大，很多个股从4月贸易战地点算起，都是大几倍、甚至十几倍的涨幅，这把未 来几年的业绩预期都打满了。 而2020-2021新能源迎来戴维斯双击的时候，也是出现如此爆发的。当时机构也普遍看好业绩，但过后大家都知道迎来了杀估 值，然后只有宁王、阳光电源等少数龙头今年走出。当前的A ...

首批北交所主题基金自2021年11月23日成立以来，已有四年。在年内大盘走高、北证50指数屡创新高的背景下，首批北交所主题基金的年内收益率均表现亮 眼，其中也不乏成立至今累计收益率翻倍的产品，最高达138%。除首批产品外，第二批北交所主题基金的表现也相对突出，累计收益率均实现翻倍。在业 内人士看来，相较于其他基金产品，北交所主题基金具备更高的灵活性，且主要布局北交所核心资产，在牛市行情中具有一定的竞争力。 | 1900 2,957,700 6,414,100 | 639.10 558.77 | 2.94 2.57 2.41 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 523.34 | | | | 72,352,200 | 507.55 | 2.34 | 7.01 | | 23,040,600 | 492.48 | 2.27 | 21.37 | | 233,909,200 | 491.13 | 2.26 | 2.10 | | 19,590,800 | 438.42 | 2.02 | | | | 423.00 | | | | -11 .600 | | | | | 241 200 | 346 ...

11月21日，创新实业(02788)下午暗盘交易两大交易场辉力和富途均大幅上涨，其中辉立暗盘收涨 30.57%，收报14.35港元，富途收涨26.02%，收报13.85港元，合计成交金额6.5亿港元，对应约8300万美 金，交投非常活跃。作为中国电解铝行业的出海领军者，公司此次 IPO 不仅凭借豪华基石投资阵容与 火爆超额认购表现点燃市场热情，更以清晰的全球化战略、充沛的现金流及显著的估值优势，成为今年 港股市场极具潜力的明星新股。 财务方面，创新实业的表现同样可圈可点。招股书显示，2022年至2024年期间，创新实业收入由人民币 134.90亿元提升至151.63亿元，年内利润由人民币9.13亿元提升至26.30亿元。根据大宗商品研究机构 CRU的报告，公司管理每吨铝现金成本的能力在中国所有电解铝冶炼公司中处于前5%之列，充沛的现 金流与高效的运营管理为其持续推进产能扩张与产业升级提供了有力支持。 此外，更值得注意的是创新实业的估值优势。公司本次IPO发行对应2025年市盈率仅7.9倍，相较于港股 同业可比公司约有30%折扣。在港股市场震荡调整的当下，这一低估值不仅为后市上涨预留充足空间， 更形成罕见的"黄 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategies Overview - CITIC Securities released a comprehensive report on investment strategies for 2026, covering global capital markets, macroeconomic policies, A-shares, overseas markets, bond markets, asset allocation, and industry investment strategies [1] - The report includes insights from 19 research teams and spans approximately 30,000 words [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical and Biotech Investment Strategies - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is entering a critical phase characterized by "innovation realization + global layout," supported by population and domestic demand, as well as manufacturing capabilities [3][4] - The industry needs to focus on internal supply chain security and compliance while exploring diversified international expansion [3] - Key investment opportunities for 2026 include innovation commercialization, global breakthroughs, policy optimization, and industry mergers and acquisitions [3][5][6] Group 3: Medical Device Investment Strategies - The medical device sector is expected to see performance improvements in 2026 due to policy easing, new product launches, and international expansion [14] - The long-term investment opportunities in this sector stem from innovation, internationalization, and mergers and acquisitions [14] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards high-value consumables and innovative technologies such as brain-computer interfaces and AI in healthcare [14][15] Group 4: Consumer Healthcare and Bioproducts - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to recover from short-term pressures, with improved demand anticipated by year-end [9] - The blood products industry is focusing on supply growth and consolidation, with significant demand for immunoglobulin and factor products [10] - The vaccine sector is under pressure but is expected to improve with new product sales and international expansion [10] Group 5: Banking Sector Investment Strategies - The banking sector is expected to continue its weak recovery in 2025, with a focus on high dividend strategies [25][26] - The sector's fundamentals are stabilizing, with credit growth projected at 7%-8% and non-interest income expected to improve [26] - High dividend yield strategies are favored, particularly for state-owned banks and those with solid fundamentals [27] Group 6: Wealth Management and Financial Products - The wealth management sector is entering a phase of product transformation and structural optimization, with an expected growth rate of 10% in 2026 [28][33] - The focus is on multi-asset and multi-strategy products, with a significant increase in mixed product offerings anticipated [29][30] - The integration of AI and digital technologies is expected to enhance risk management and operational efficiency in wealth management [30] Group 7: Non-Banking Financial Institutions - The securities industry is poised for a new growth cycle, driven by policies that enhance capital market inclusivity and adaptability [35][36] - The industry is experiencing a shift from self-operated models to collaborative, light-asset business strategies [36][37] - The internationalization of Chinese securities firms is gaining momentum, providing new opportunities for growth [38][39] Group 8: Insurance Sector Trends - The insurance industry is expected to undergo significant changes during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on balancing interests among insurers, channels, and customers [43][44] - Key trends include the transformation of savings products, innovation in health insurance, and the development of new distribution channels [43][44] - The sector is anticipated to benefit from improved performance and valuation recovery, presenting investment opportunities [43][44] Group 9: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is recovering from a prolonged downturn, with a focus on premium products like liquor and health-oriented snacks [48][49] - The liquor industry is expected to stabilize as consumer confidence improves, with a focus on high-quality brands [49][50] - The snack and beverage segments are seeing growth driven by health trends and innovative product offerings [52][53]

二级市场方面，在市场行情回暖、行业基本面持续改善的背景下，券商板块三季报表现亮眼，而股价表 现却远未跟上步伐。截至11月19日，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指年内分别上涨17.75%、25.59%和 4367%，而中证全指证券公司指数涨幅仅为3.25%，走势明显落后于大盘。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首目] 本年初 [区间尾日] 2025-11-19 [单位] % | | | | 399975.SZ | 证券公司 | | 3.2546 | | 2 | OCCOOLSHI | 上训指数 | | 17.7512 | | 3 | 399001.SZ | 深证成指 | | 25.5936 | | | 4 399006.SZ | 创业板指 | | 43.6707 | 这种"业绩涨、股价滞涨"的现象，导致了板块估值与盈利能力之间出现了显著的"剪刀差"。机构表示当 前估值仍处历史低位的券商板块，有望在2026年迎来业绩与估值的"戴维斯双击"。 券商行业迎来重磅利好，11月19日，中金公司、信达证券、东兴证 ...

11月18日，科创创新药板块冲高回落，截至10:16，科创创新药ETF汇添富（589120）早盘大幅震荡，振幅近2%，当前微涨0.11%，资金小跑进 场，科创创新药ETF汇添富（589120）昨日强势吸金786万元！ 科创创新药ETF汇添富（589120）标的指数成分股涨跌不一，百利天恒涨超2%，百济神州涨超1%，一度涨超3%，泽璟制药涨超1%，荣昌生物、 艾力斯微涨，君实生物、博瑞医药等回调。 特别是出海方面，国信证券表示，随着国产创新药的临床数据和临床进度在全球范围内的竞争力越来越强，创新药出海的趋势不断加强。关注创 新药在海外的临床进展以及数据读出。中国创新药产业已经体现出长期向好的发展趋势，并在近年集中体现在BD交易的爆发式增长。值得注意的 是，对于大部分国产创新药，对外授权通常只是全球开发的起点，合作伙伴在海外的开发进度，以及后续全球临床数据的读出可以进一步加强产 品在全球市场商业化的确定性。（来源于国信证券20251023《看好创新药长期逻辑，关注底部反转标的》） 【创新药进入收获期，戴维斯双击可期】 2025 年三季度，A 股医药生物板块472 家上市公司，共实现营业总收入6,004亿元，实现归 ...

18日早盘，券商异动拉升，东北证券一度涨超6%，现涨4.49%，华泰证券涨超3%，广发证券、国盛证 券涨超2%。A股顶流券商ETF（512000）场内价格现涨0.86%，实时成交额超3亿元，交投活跃。 核心逻辑在于，券商板块三季报表现亮眼，而股价表现却远未跟上步伐。截至11月14日，上证指数、深 证成指、创业板指年内分别上涨19.06%、26.90%和45.29%，而中证全指证券公司指数涨幅仅为4.24%， 走势明显落后于大盘。 | 序号 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ［区间首日］ 本年初 | | | | | [区间尾日] 2025-11-14 | | | | | [車位] % ↓ | | | 1 399006.SZ | 创业板指 | | 45.2892 | | 2 399001.SZ | 深证成指 | | 26.8989 | | 3 000001.SH 上证指数 | | | 19.0565 | | 4 399975.SZ 证券公司 | | | 4.2426 | 这种"业绩涨、股价滞涨"的现象，导致了板块估值与盈利能力之间出现了 ...

当前科技方向忙着"震荡蹦迪"，反观曾被贴上"傻大黑粗"标签的化工板块，近期亮点频出。 以电池化学品为例，受涨价催化，板块持续上演趋势行情。自9月以来板块指数涨幅超60%。 如今的化工，早已不是你印象中"污染重、利润薄"的老样子，既是高端制造的"材料基石"，更是4万亿规模的"成长赛道"。 这波逆袭背后，藏着怎样的底层逻辑？ 01 告别无序内卷，供需破局 过去十年的化工行业，堪称"内卷界天花板"：大家一门心思扩产能，你建100万吨装置，我就跟风上200万吨，结果低端产能严重过剩。 原材料涨价倒逼成本飙升，终端产品却只能含泪降价，最后陷入"规模越大、亏得越狠"的死循环，妥妥的"赔本赚吆喝"。 从"卷产能"到"卷技术"，龙头开启全球收割 如果说供需重构是"天时"，那企业竞争力升级就是"地利+人和"，也是化工板块甩掉周期股标签的核心底气。 以前的化工企业竞争，简单粗暴——比谁的产能大。现在早已升级成"高端局"，技术壁垒、绿色转型、全球化成了新赛场。 如今风向变了！政策、行业、资源三方联手，硬是把供需格局拉回平衡线： 1、政策层面：工信部"十五五"规划直接给盲目扩产踩刹车，新建项目审批升级，行业产能增速从双位数骤降到7% ...