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马云预言实现?若无意外,2026年房地产将发生重大改变
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 07:40
早在2017年的某次互联网大会上,马云就抛出一句令人震惊的预言:"未来房价会像葱一样便宜。"当时,房价正处于上升的趋势之中。房企都在疯狂拿地建 房,而炒房者则在连夜排队买房。所以,很多人对马云的预言嗤之以鼻,认为马云的言论有哗众取宠之嫌。 从2022年开始,国内房价就进入到长期调整的趋势之中。现在全国各地的房价与历史最高位相比,平均跌幅超过30%,而像涿州、廊坊等环京楼市的房价跌 幅更是超过了60%。此外,鹤岗、阜新、双鸭山等三四线城市的房价已经跌至"白菜价",只要花几万元或者十几万元就可以买套房子。 目前,国内房价要么正朝着马云预测的方向运行,要么部分三四线城市已经出现了"葱价"。马云当年的预言已经快要实现了。而面对当前国内房地产市场的 趋势,有业内人士表示:若无意外,2026年房地产将发生重大改变。让我们一起来了解一下: 第一,房地产调控力度会加强 在进入到2025年之后,房地产市场还是延续了之前调整的走势。预计到2026年这个房地产趋势还将会继续下去。而为了避免短期内房地产市场出现大幅波 动,明年的房地产调控力度大概率还会继续加强。 除了一线城市逐步放开限购政策之外,银行的房贷利率还有望进一步下降。此外 ...
房地产行业第39周周报:本周新房二手房成交同比成交均转弱,上海“好房子”标准细则正式落地-20250929
Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction volume has shown a mixed trend, with new housing sales area increasing month-on-month but declining year-on-year, while second-hand housing transactions have improved slightly [3][6] - The Shanghai "Good House" standard has been implemented, which is expected to enhance the quality of new housing products and improve living experiences for buyers [3] - The overall market remains under pressure due to declining prices, rising inventory, and weak consumer confidence, despite some signs of recovery in transaction volumes [7] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Housing Market, Second-hand Housing Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of September 20-26, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 21,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 11.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.0% [16][18] - The new housing sales area was 2.299 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 23.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [25][17] - The inventory of new housing in 12 cities was 11,434 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [41][47] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area across 100 cities was 1,761.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 57.2% and a year-on-year increase of 41.8% [61][67] - The total land transaction price was 44.71 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 210.7% and a year-on-year increase of 43.5% [63][67] - The average land price was 2,538.2 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 97.6% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [62][67] 3. Policy Overview - The report highlights the implementation of new policies aimed at improving housing quality and stabilizing the real estate market, particularly in major cities like Shanghai [3][4] 4. Company Performance Review - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, as well as those that have shown significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024 [7]
知名专家现惊人言论!房价下跌,最受伤的不是有钱人,而是普通老百姓?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 00:57
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the critical state of China's real estate market and the implications for the macro economy, emphasizing the need for a shift in policy and perception regarding housing prices and land finance [2][4]. Group 1: Land Finance and Policy - Land finance is defined as the fiscal mechanism of local governments that possess land transfer and planning rights [4]. - To stabilize the real estate market, it is essential to abandon quantity targets and halt the influx of new land supply, focusing instead on redeeming excess properties [4]. - The current approach of relying on land sales for financing contradicts the central government's strategy of transitioning from incremental expansion to qualitative improvement [4]. Group 2: Impact of Housing Prices - The decline in housing prices primarily affects ordinary citizens rather than the wealthy, as housing constitutes a significant portion of household assets in China [4]. - The homeownership rates are notably high, with urban residents at 96.3% and rural residents at 94.8%, indicating that housing is a critical asset for the majority [4]. - The article argues that rising housing prices can help reduce wealth inequality, contrary to the belief that falling prices benefit the majority [4]. Group 3: Market Structure and Transformation - A dual-track system is proposed, distinguishing between market-driven housing and affordable housing, to ensure both price stability and housing accessibility [5]. - The article suggests that the best source of affordable housing is not new construction but rather the repurchase of excess market housing [5]. - The handling of unfinished projects should focus on rescuing banks rather than merely saving companies [5]. Group 4: Current Market Conditions - The real estate sector is currently in a downturn, with significant declines in new housing sales and investment [7][9]. - From January to August 2023, new housing sales dropped by 4.7% in area and 7.3% in value, while real estate development investment fell by 12.9% [7][9]. - The inventory of unsold properties has increased, with a notable rise in the waiting period for inventory clearance [10][13]. Group 5: Economic Contribution and Future Outlook - The real estate sector contributes approximately 20% to GDP and 40% to fiscal revenue, highlighting its importance to the economy [19][22]. - Despite its significance, the probability of housing prices continuing to rise is deemed low due to oversupply and demographic challenges [23][24]. - The article emphasizes that the real estate market must return to a supply-demand balance, as excessive price increases lead to unsustainable debt levels for developers [28][31].
购房门槛降低 租赁市场规范化 双重政策红利激活上海房地产市场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 02:35
记者观察发现,上海外环外房源的咨询量和成交量有明显提升,尤其在近几周的周末成交量呈现一波小高 峰。"因为有VR看房功能,上班族平时线上看房、线上咨询比较多。'沪六条'新政出台后,我们平台上线的外环 外房源浏览量同比增长22%,咨询量同比增长26%。"浦东新区世纪公园地铁站附近一链家门店业务员表示。 家住杨浦区的市民唐女士告诉记者,婚后一直有换房需求,但由于此前的限购政策,只能卖掉原有房子才能置换 新房。"沪六条"新政出台之后,目前住所就不着急出手了,可以等有了合适的房子之后再出售用以还贷。 此外,"沪六条"新政的公积金政策得到多重优化。购买二星级及以上新建绿色建筑住房的,住房公积金最高贷款 额度上浮15%。首套最高贷款额度从160万元提高至184万元,多子女家庭首套可达216万元。新政还支持提取住房 公积金支付购房首付款,并允许"又提又贷"。这意味着购买上海市新建预售商品住房的缴存人,可提取本人及配 偶的公积金支付首付款,且不影响公积金贷款额度计算。 央广网上海9月17日消息(记者林馥榆)8月26日,上海出台被称为"沪六条"的房地产新政,对住房限购、公积 金、住房信贷和住房税收等进行六项调整。紧接着,9月15 ...
深圳辟谣:核心区放开限购为虚假信息
9月19日,《辟谣财知道》注意到,深圳网络辟谣官方平台就有关"深圳核心区放开限购"内容的微信聊 天截图等虚假信息发布辟谣通知。 (原标题:深圳辟谣:核心区放开限购为虚假信息) 经核实,深圳市今年9月5日出台了房地产调控政策,并不存在网传的"深圳核心区放开限购"的情况。请 广大市民切勿轻信非官方渠道的虚假消息。 此前,有关"深圳核心区放开限购"内容的微信聊天截图在网上流传,称"各项目如果有客户是因为购房 资格限制不能买房的,可以申请特殊渠道解决"。 ...
深圳核心区放开限购?消息不实
Core Viewpoint - The news clarifies that there is no truth to the rumors regarding the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Shenzhen's core area, emphasizing the importance of relying on official sources for information [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Real Estate Policy**: Shenzhen implemented real estate regulation policies on September 5, 2023, which do not include any measures to lift purchase restrictions in the core area [1] - **Public Awareness**: Citizens are advised to be cautious and not to believe in false information circulating through unofficial channels [1]
再过5年,180万的房产大概值多少钱?孙宏斌与王健林说法一致
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 11:12
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with property values declining and the previous perception of real estate as a guaranteed investment fading away [1][3][4]. Market Trends - Over the past two years, property prices have consistently dropped, leading to concerns about whether prices have reached their lowest point [1][3]. - The once booming real estate market, which was seen as a wealth generator, is now viewed as a burden for many families due to significant asset depreciation [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a stark contrast in supply and demand, with over 110 million vacant homes in China and urban households averaging 1.5 homes each, indicating an oversupply situation [10][12]. - The previous anxiety of being pushed out of cities due to lack of housing is diminishing, as the population growth is slowing, with only 500,000 net new residents in 2021 [12][23]. Developer Challenges - Developers are facing a challenging environment with high debt levels and tight cash flow, forcing them to sell properties at discounted prices, which could lead to industry collapse if prices drop too significantly [14][23]. - The competitive landscape is shifting from quantity to quality, as developers must focus on delivering high-quality properties to attract buyers [14][16]. Changing Consumer Attitudes - Younger generations are increasingly rejecting the traditional view of homeownership as a necessity, preferring flexibility and personal growth over long-term financial commitments [19][25]. - The perception of real estate as a status symbol is eroding, with many now questioning the value of investing in property given the current market conditions [21][25]. Future Outlook - Industry leaders predict that the real estate market cannot sustain its previous growth patterns indefinitely, with calls for a return to the fundamental purpose of housing as a living space rather than an investment vehicle [23][25]. - The introduction of property taxes by 2030 is anticipated to further alter the cost dynamics for multiple property owners, impacting market behavior [8][12].
专家会议:深圳新政落地,中介专家如何解读?
2025-09-07 16:19
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the recent changes in Shenzhen's real estate policies, particularly focusing on the relaxation of purchase restrictions in certain districts, which aims to stimulate the housing market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Policy Changes and Market Response** - Shenzhen's new policy has partially relaxed purchase restrictions, particularly in the Luohu and Baoan districts, leading to a significant increase in second-hand housing viewings by 38% in Luohu and 15% citywide after the announcement [1][3][4]. 2. **Differentiated Regulatory Approach** - The city is divided into three categories: core restricted areas (Nanshan, Futian, and Baoan's Xin'an Street), relaxed areas (Longhua, Longgang, Pingshan), and fully open areas (Yantian, Dapeng), reflecting a differentiated regulatory strategy [1][6]. 3. **Impact on Housing Demand** - The relaxation of corporate purchasing restrictions allows companies to buy properties with loans, stimulating investment demand, especially in core areas [1][7][9]. The loan-to-value ratio can go up to 50%, with interest rates as low as 2% for acquisition loans [7]. 4. **Improvement in Financial Conditions for Buyers** - The alignment of interest rates for first and second homes at 3.05% reduces financial burdens for buyers looking to upgrade their housing, potentially increasing transaction volumes in both new and second-hand markets [1][8][9]. 5. **Increased Market Activity** - Following the policy changes, there has been a notable increase in property viewings and inquiries, indicating a positive market reaction and rising transaction expectations [1][11]. 6. **Future Market Trends** - Historical data suggests that the Shenzhen real estate market typically sees increased activity from mid-October to December, driven by various housing demands, despite current policy expectations not fully meeting market needs [31][32]. 7. **Price Trends and Market Stability** - The average price of second-hand homes in Shenzhen rose by 0.5% in August, signaling a stabilization after previous declines, largely attributed to high-net-worth individuals reinvesting in the market [2][29]. 8. **Sector-Specific Performance** - Certain districts like Longhua and Luohu are experiencing heightened interest and activity, while areas like Futian and Nanshan remain stable without significant changes [15][16]. Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Corporate Demand for Real Estate** - The relaxation of corporate purchasing policies is expected to attract financial firms and state-owned enterprises, enhancing market activity [25][26]. 2. **Rental Yield Analysis** - The rental yield in Luohu is the highest at 2% to 2.2%, making it an attractive investment area compared to other districts like Nanshan, which has a lower yield due to higher property prices [27]. 3. **Inventory and Supply Issues** - There are approximately 20,000 unsold units of talent and affordable housing, which need to be addressed to stabilize the market further [36][37]. 4. **Competitive Landscape of Real Estate Agencies** - The competitive nature of the real estate agency market in Shenzhen has led to lower commission rates compared to other major cities, impacting overall transaction costs [24]. 5. **Potential for Future Policy Adjustments** - While current policies aim to support the market, there is speculation about the possibility of further adjustments depending on national-level initiatives [34]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding Shenzhen's real estate market and the implications of recent policy changes.
中信建投:深圳放松房地产调控 力度大于北京上海
Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has implemented new housing policies that significantly relax purchase restrictions and adjust mortgage rates, which is expected to support the city's real estate market and help reduce inventory levels [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Housing Purchase Restrictions - The new policy relaxes purchase restrictions in non-core areas of Shenzhen, excluding specific districts such as Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an [1] - The relaxation of restrictions is more substantial compared to recent policies introduced in Beijing and Shanghai [1] Mortgage Rate Adjustments - The new policy eliminates the differentiation in mortgage rates between first and second homes, which is expected to lower the cost for second-home buyers [1] Market Impact - The relaxation of purchase restrictions is anticipated to facilitate the reduction of inventory in the city's real estate market, particularly in non-core areas [1] - Given the recent pressure on transaction volume and prices in Shenzhen's housing market, the new policies are expected to provide support for market stabilization, similar to the effects observed in Beijing and Shanghai following their policy changes [1]
蓉籍、非蓉籍在成都购房规定汇总
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 12:27
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the introduction of new real estate policies in Chengdu aimed at stabilizing and promoting the healthy development of the real estate market [1] - The policies include a phased cancellation of the sales restriction policy, allowing new and second-hand homes to be traded without restrictions after obtaining property certificates [10][11] - The new policies also emphasize improving supply quality and promoting balanced regional development, particularly around transportation hubs [1] Group 2 - From October 15, 2024, new purchases of commercial housing and second-hand housing in Chengdu will not be subject to sales restrictions after obtaining property certificates [11] - The personal housing loan recognition standards have been updated, allowing for more flexible assessments based on the applicant's housing situation in the district where the new property is located [11] - The policies also include adjustments to the minimum down payment ratios for purchasing affordable housing using public housing funds [4]